Do league expansions change the ratio of competing and rebuilding teams?

[Macbanan]

As a relatively new NHL viewer, without memory of how the teams acted before the salary cap and the league expansions, I can't really judge how teams acted in the past. How have these expansions affected the ratio of competing and rebuilding teams?

My guess is the number of teams willing to commit and compete does not expand with the number of teams in the league. So basically, any expansion is more likely to add a team in rebuild mode, and less likely to add a team in compete mode.

This applies regardless if the expansion team itself is competative or not, since it may just push another middling team to consider rebuilding. The reasoning being that that unless you belong to the top 15 teams or so you might as well rebuild, regardless if there are 20 or 40 teams in the league.


Do you think there's truth to this reasoning or was the ratio the same when the league was smaller?

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[Flukeshot]

It depends on the number of playoffs spots but that hasn't changed in the NHL since 1980. I think "Being close" to a playoff spot deterred teams from long term rebuilds.

So I would agree with your assessment that recent expansion does make it more likely to have more teams in rebuild mode. Las Vegas and Seattle came into the league with better players available to them than all previous expansion teams, so it is also likely true, that while Vegas wasn't a bad team, it made another team or two in the conference consider rebuild when they may not have if Vegas hadn't come into the league... It pushed those teams 1 more spot down the "being close" list.

 

[canuckster19]

As a relatively new NHL viewer, without memory of how the teams acted before the salary cap and the league expansions, I can't really judge how teams acted in the past. How have these expansions affected the ratio of competing and rebuilding teams?

My guess is the number of teams willing to commit and compete does not expand with the number of teams in the league. So basically, any expansion is more likely to add a team in rebuild mode, and less likely to add a team in compete mode.

This applies regardless if the expansion team itself is competative or not, since it may just push another middling team to consider rebuilding. The reasoning being that that unless you belong to the top 15 teams or so you might as well rebuild, regardless if there are 20 or 40 teams in the league.


Do you think there's truth to this reasoning or was the ratio the same when the league was smaller?

I think it has more to do with the percentage of teams that make the playoffs. The amount of blowing it up and rebuilding in the NHL today I think is a product of a few factors.

The salary cap and the little amount of flexibility it has compared to other leagues.

The lowering of the UFA age I think has negatively affected the trade value of players in their mid to late 20s.

The amount of teams that make the playoffs. We’ve gone from 16/21 to 16/32 without ever changing the format. I think if you add more teams it would see less teams tank later in the season, and create more of a sellers market for the teams at the bottom allowing greater turn around times on their competitiveness. Of course though talking about expanding the playoffs on this forum is always a toxic debate so…