Director of Scouting David Conte Interview

[Jason MacIsaac]

I'd like to ask him:

What did he see in Frazee more than Quick?

Tedenby over Carlson?

What the heck is going on with our Euro scouts?

Really? Anyone who watched Tedenby seen that he had quite a few tools that were excellent. Quickness, speed, stickhandling and hands. I believe sabermetric guys may have seen a few red flags on overall production and shots generated. You can't blame NJ for finally taking a home run selection.

In Frazee's case, goaltenders are a crap shoot. He was better than Quick at that time.

 

[Belizarius]

Agreed.
Frazee was excellent in the NCAA, lead the US to a shootout vs Canada in WJC semis, and overall had a fine AHL career.
He's a good goalie.

 

[Devils Dominion]

They are only a small sample of major gaffes by Conte and his clueless staff, mostly Euro.

 

[Bcap88]

Can anyone give me insight on Severson don't know much about him. Seems like a steal of the draft for us

 

[Better Call Sal]

They are only a small sample of major gaffes by Conte and his clueless staff, mostly Euro.

Oh please. The NHL draft is a crap shoot for the most part.

 

[ThePSEGPowerPoster]

Oh please. The NHL draft is a crap shoot for the most part.

Wouldn't say crapshoot. I mean, I remember reading Moneyball where Lewis quotes Beane as saying the draft is a crapshoot...until he found out it was more of a science than a crapshoot (scouting for particular attributes and using amateur stats to project future success).

I think a lot of it is development and good scouting with a good amount of luck. But teams pay a lot of money into their scouting department for a reason. I don't think Lou believes it is a crapshoot.

 

[Better Call Sal]

Wouldn't say crapshoot. I mean, I remember reading Moneyball where Lewis quotes Beane as saying the draft is a crapshoot...until he found out it was more of a science than a crapshoot (scouting for particular attributes and using amateur stats to project future success).

I think a lot of it is development and good scouting with a good amount of luck. But teams pay a lot of money into their scouting department for a reason. I don't think Lou believes it is a crapshoot.

In the particular example given earlier, it is very much a crap shoot especially after Round 1.

Quick vs. Frazee. You look at the statistics between the two when they were drafted and Frazee was the better goaltender playing at a better program in University of Minnesota. It's not surprising whatsoever that he was chosen higher and over Quick.

I think development is key above all else. You can't get a good idea on most of these players at the age they are drafted, most of them don't even get into the AHL until 3 or 4 years later.

 

[Devils Dominion]

Oh please. The NHL draft is a crap shoot for the most part.

You are wrong, sorry to be so blunt, but good talent evaluators and shrewd scouts will find more NHL potential players than clueless ones.

If it's a "crapshoot" than Joshua Harris should fire Conte and the entire scouting staff today, save some money, and have Lou just draft based on the Central Scouting rankings list.

Every team will "miss" on a high draft pick once in a while or pick a player in a mid round that bombs when they could and should have drafted someone else still available. I get that.

But when it becomes a pattern there is a problem with the people who are making these talent evaluations and decisions.

For every Gelinas or Henrique there are triple the head scratching busts.

Check this one out as another example.

In 2009 Conte picked Josefson at 20th overall (Lou would have taken Krieder if the Rags did not pick him at 19th).

Not only has fellow Swede center Marcus Johansson had a MUCH better career so far (and picked by the Caps at 24th overall) and NJ's Kyle Palmieri taken at 26th overall and Ryan O'Reilly taken in the 2nd round at 33rd, but, here are some other Swedes who have done a tad better than Josefson from this draft:

Silfverberg at 39th overall
Robin Lehner at 46th overall
Marcus Kruger at 149th overall

3 Swede forwards passed on for Josefson.
Just one example of many blunders.

Yes, development and coaching plays a part too, but we know that Johannson and Silfverberg have much better talent than Josefson and I'll say Kruger too.

 

[ThePSEGPowerPoster]

In the particular example given earlier, it is very much a crap shoot especially after Round 1.

Quick vs. Frazee. You look at the statistics between the two when they were drafted and Frazee was the better goaltender playing at a better program in University of Minnesota. It's not surprising whatsoever that he was chosen higher and over Quick.

I think development is key above all else. You can't get a good idea on most of these players at the age they are drafted, most of them don't even get into the AHL until 3 or 4 years later.

Come to think about it I think you're absolutely right. There certainly comes a point where the statistics will be comparable (and hell even the physical attributes). I never thought of it that way.

I guess I always figured (since I primarily followed the worst draft imaginable as a kid - baseball) that there is always room for good scouting and good projection. But for hockey I can see your point most definitely (especially with goaltending).

Development - Crapshoot - Scouting. I don't mind accepting that premise. Granted I think Lou sees it your way too, since he's had no qualms trading picks for known commodities. And the Wings are the same way. Two of the most successful franchises of the past 2-3 decades.

I think the franchises that view the draft as more than what you view it (as more of a sure thing) are prone to struggle. Typically at least. With a few exceptions. I don't think any team can reliably count on solely the draft to rebuild.

 

[Devils Dominion]

Agreed.
Frazee was excellent in the NCAA, lead the US to a shootout vs Canada in WJC semis, and overall had a fine AHL career.
He's a good goalie.

He was demoted from starter to backup by the time his Gopher career was done and let in a shot from over center ice in a key game.

Let's face it, it was a bad pick at the time, he had too many question marks going into Minnesota.

 

[ThePSEGPowerPoster]

He was demoted from starter to backup by the time his Gopher career was done and let in a shot from over center ice in a key game.

Let's face it, it was a bad pick at the time, he had too many question marks going into Minnesota.

Well, Merrill had a ton of question marks too. Just trying to be fair here. Often times demotions, suspensions, injuries - those things are just part of the gamble.

 

[Better Call Sal]

You are wrong, sorry to be so blunt, but good talent evaluators and shrewd scouts will find more NHL potential players than clueless ones.

If it's a "crapshoot" than Joshua Harris should fire Conte and the entire scouting staff today, save some money, and have Lou just draft based on the Central Scouting rankings list.

Every team will "miss" on a high draft pick once in a while or pick a player in a mid round that bombs when they could and should have drafted someone else still available. I get that.

But when it becomes a pattern there is a problem with the people who are making these talent evaluations and decisions.

For every Gelinas or Henrique there are triple the head scratching busts.

Check this one out as another example.

In 2009 Conte picked Josefson at 20th overall (Lou would have taken Krieder if the Rags did not pick him at 19th).

Not only has fellow Swede center Marcus Johansson had a MUCH better career so far (and picked by the Caps at 24th overall) and NJ's Kyle Palmieri taken at 26th overall and Ryan O'Reilly taken in the 2nd round at 33rd, but, here are some other Swedes who have done a tad better than Josefson from this draft:

Silfverberg at 39th overall
Robin Lehner at 46th overall
Marcus Kruger at 149th overall

3 Swede forwards passed on for Josefson.
Just one example of many blunders.

Yes, development and coaching plays a part too, but we know that Johannson and Silfverberg have much better talent than Josefson and I'll say Kruger too.

I'm going to do more research on this, but take a look at the pre-draft rankings from January 2009 in the Hockey News. Jacob Josefson is the NINTH RANKED PLAYER IN THE DRAFT. http://www.thehockeynews.com/articles/22584-The-Hockey-News-2009-Draft-Prospect-Rankings.html

TSN Final Rankings - Josefson is ranked the 16th best player in the draft. (Oddly enough, they projected us to get him also).

http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=11043

NHL European Skater Ranking - Listed as Number 3 ahead of all players you mentioned.

http://www.nhl.com/ice/page.htm?id=31413

Everyone had Jacob pegged for mid first round that year. This is why I believe development is key above all else.

 

[NJ CUP*]

did he answer any of the following


1. why did you keep the 29th pick?

2. why did you draft ted?

3. why did you draft jj?

4. why did you draft bergfors


5. why can't you draft anyone good in the first round?

 

[Rob Nieds work ethic]

You can't expect a scouting staff to see into the future. Thay made the draft decisions based on the reports and evaluations they had at the time of the draft. Some players make it, some don't.

 

[Richer's Ghost]

http://thehockeywriters.com/overtime/the-nhl-entry-draft-investment-or-gamble/

Some fairly stunning numbers leap out from this view. Almost 65% of players drafted since 2000 have zero time on NHL ice. Slightly less than 13% have a PPI of over .250 for their teams. A measly 2.27% of drafted players have PPI ratings of .750 or higher, meaning that from a General Manager’s perspective, it is slightly more likely that a straight up bet on a number at the roulette wheel will pay (odds 38/1) than a player appearing in more than 75% of games (a little over 44/1).

Now, you might say “Wait a minute – the development time for younger players hauls these numbers down.” That’s true, but only to a point. If we limit the view to only draft years in 2007 or earlier, the numbers change only slightly. Under that scenario just over 58% of drafted players have played no NHL games, while the other numbers, in ascending order, are 23.8%, 7.22%, 8%, 1.81% and 0.43% – not big differences.

 

[Devils Dominion]

The problem I have is we can all tell that Johansson and Silfverberg have MUCH BETTER talent than Josefson, by just watching them in a few shifts.

His scouts have to hit the pavement more in Europe and actually watch these players in person. They seem to just be relying on the scouting reports of others-and not from their own eyes!!

 

[ThePSEGPowerPoster]

The problem I have is we can all tell that Johansson and Silfverberg have MUCH BETTER talent than Josefson, by just watching them in a few shifts.

His scouts have to hit the pavement more in Europe and actually watch these players in person. They seem to just be relying on the scouting reports of others-and not from their own eyes!!

To be fair I saw some spectacular scouting videos of Josefson. And I mean spectacular offensive talent. Top 5 caliber, stand-out on the ice.

Same from Teddy.

 

[Rob Nieds work ethic]

The problem I have is we can all tell that Johansson and Silfverberg have MUCH BETTER talent than Josefson, by just watching them in a few shifts.

Too bad Conte couldn't travel into the future and see them all compete in the NHL and then evaluate and compare them, use that information and the travel back into 2009 and re-evaluate.

 

[Devils Dominion]

Too bad Conte couldn't travel into the future and see them all compete in the NHL and then evaluate and compare them, use that information and the travel back into 2009 and re-evaluate.

It's a pattern of bad scouting and talent evaluations in Europe.
You disagree?

 

[ThePSEGPowerPoster]

It's a pattern of bad scouting and talent evaluations in Europe.
You disagree?

It could also be a pattern of bad luck and bad development. We just really don't know. We had a nice run of drafting Euros once-in-a-blue.

I imagine it's much harder to draft and evaluate Euros as well. Scouts might not see them as much as NA skaters and not have as good of a grasp on the level of competition amongst their peers.

 

[Better Call Sal]

It's a pattern of bad scouting and talent evaluations in Europe.
You disagree?

Yes, I disagree.

It is a pattern of bad development.

 

[glenwo2]

Nevermind.

 

[Devils Dominion]

It could also be a pattern of bad luck and bad development. We just really don't know. We had a nice run of drafting Euros once-in-a-blue.

I imagine it's much harder to draft and evaluate Euros as well. Scouts might not see them as much as NA skaters and not have as good of a grasp on the level of competition amongst their peers.

Lou and Pete have botched the development of our Swedes (Larsson, Josefson, Tedenby and Urbom), I do agree with that.
But IMO, they were all not good picks-with the exception of possibly Larsson where the jury is still out.

But, our Euro scouts have struck out over there since Rafalski as a FA and what, Sykora in 1995 via the draft?

Detroit, the Rags and others routinely find players over there that end up contributing well. Many in later rounds too.

 

[ThePSEGPowerPoster]

Lou and Pete have botched the development of our Swedes (Larsson, Josefson, Tedenby and Urbom), I do agree with that.
But IMO, they were all not good picks-with the exception of possibly Larsson where the jury is still out.

But, our Euro scouts have struck out over there since Rafalski as a FA and what, Sykora in 1995 via the draft?

Detroit, the Rags and others routinely find players over there that end up contributing well. Many in later rounds too.

Also we drafted a ton of NA skaters for a long time. With the exception of a handful of Czechs and then our most recent runs of Swedes and Russians (jury is out).

But yes, you're correct.

 

[glenwo2]

Agreed.
Frazee was excellent in the NCAA, lead the US to a shootout vs Canada in WJC semis, and overall had a fine AHL career.
He's a good goalie.

That's the problem, though.


He's a fine *AHL* goalie.

When he got his cup of coffee with NJ(or did he yet?), he didn't fare so well(or am I remembering Kinkaid?)