Speculation: Devil's Advocate

[CatsforReinhart]

It will be longer than that.

Also, do not confuse draft picks with "Cup contending roster". A lot of guys never develop into what they should in this league. We may very well draft four studs with those picks you mention. Then again, none or only one may prove to be what we are looking for.

A bunch of draft picks are meaningless until they are realized into on-ice winners. We have to cross our fingers and hope Murray grabs the right guys.

Umm, you do know about the other guys you know the prospects from the last 2 drafts. It is not just about this year but the combination. I am not going to list them but you should be aware in 2 to 3 years they will be playing for the sabres...yes not all but some or most depending on the development. So like I said, relax.

 

[Wisent42]

We got a first a second and a 30 goal scorer for Thomas Vanek who was turning 30 and didn't have a contract lasting a year. That was last year.

McDavid will cost your team and when you finish filling up the new team around McDavid...that team too.

Now that I think about it, I wouldn't even do that trade. We don't need a team (or two). We already have a team (or two) in our pipeline. We have the cake, we just need the icing.

 

[joshjull]

It will be longer than that.

It shouldn't have to be. It depends on the development of the various prospects we already have and how aggressive Murray wants to be after this season in trades.

Also, do not confuse draft picks with "Cup contending roster". A lot of guys never develop into what they should in this league. We may very well draft four studs with those picks you mention. Then again, none or only one may prove to be what we are looking for.

A bunch of draft picks are meaningless until they are realized into on-ice winners. We have to cross our fingers and hope Murray grabs the right guys.

True but I think you got a tad off track agreeing a little bit with this earlier statement ... this supposed "rebuild" consists of a slew of slightly above average prospects who have demonstrated little actual development.

The level of ignorance displayed by that comment is astounding. Part of the problem on this board is the lack of patience with player development. Some posters don't realize that many of the very best players in the game took longer than posters are giving our current prospects to make the league or even reach their potential.

A few examples to make my point.

Forwards

-Getzlaf/Perry didn't make the NHL until the 3rd season after they were drafted. And they started that season in the AHL. The played 17 and 19 games respectively before getting called up for good. It took two seasons as 3rd liners before they emerged as the players we see today. That would be the 5th season after they were drafted.

-Giroux took until the 3rd season to get into the NHL. He actually played half the year in the AHL and half in the NHL. It was the 4th season after getting drafted when he finally was an NHLer out of camp and the 5th season post draft when he emerged as the player we see today.

Its very rare that a player juts steps into the league and is immediately an impact player. Even guys like Toews, Malkin and Backstrom didn't start in the NHL until a year after getting drafted. There several other examples of forwards like the ones I've shown.

Now compare where Girgs, Grigs, Armia, Reinhart, Baptiste, Fasching, Bailey, Carrier among others are in relation some of the time lines of development I've mentioned.

Defense

Here its even more pronounced the time needed for development.

-Karlsson made the league in the 2nd season after getting drafted and in the 4th season after getting drafted became the player we see now.

-Keith made the league in the 4th season after getting drafted and started to emerge as the player we see now in the 6th season after getting drafted.

-PK Subban took until the 4th season after getting drafted to make the NHL and arguably put it all together last year. Which would be the 7th season after getting drafted.

-Shea Weber It took until the 5th season after he was drafted to become a NHL regular out of camp and 2 more season after that to be the player we know today.

There are several more examples.

Now where do our prospects like Risto, Zadorov, McCabe and Pysyk look by comparison to those time lines?



I'm not saying we don't need to keep adding to the talent pool. Nor am I saying all these players will pan out. I'm also not saying that there arent 'the occasional studs that step right in and are amazing. But I think dimissing our prospect pool as being full of only slightly above average prospects and prospects not showing any development as that pother poster did is pretty daft.

 

[Djp]

Say if Pittsburgh tries to free up some cap space and offer Malkin, Pouliot, Kapenen and a first for the 1st overall, it's gotta make you think for a couple of minutes no?

Try two seconds...and no.

You have McDavid for 10 more years and what's to stop Malkin from pulling a kovi???

 

[VaporTrail]

The New Orleans Saints once traded their entire draft (99') for the #5 pick overall in the 99' draft (Ricky Williams)....

I'd say that would be a start

 

[OkimLom]

Let's say the hockey gods smile upon us and give us the #1 pick in this upcoming draft,
what would be the possible return we could get for auctioning off the pick instead of
McDavid or Eichel?

2 or 3 more 1st round picks and a slew of blue chip prospects?

Similarly, what if we don't get top 3? What would we have to give up... all 3 of our 1st rounders this year and Reinhart?

Sorry for the wall of text.

Part 1
Let's say the hockey gods smile upon us and give us the #1 pick in this upcoming draft,
what would be the possible return we could get for auctioning off the pick instead of
McDavid or Eichel?
Considering the players that these picks would be used for, you're looking at 2-3 1st Round picks + an NHL ready higher Tier Prospect(s) as a starting point. I don't think any GM would "auction" the 1st and 2nd overall picks at any price, much like Colorado or Florida not giving up their 1st overall for Elite prospects that were highly touted. Two different scenarios but both seeing the player they can draft would be much more beneficial to their team than any package.

Part 2
Similarly, what if we don't get top 3? What would we have to give up... all 3 of our 1st rounders this year and Reinhart?
If we are so worried about our current prospect situation that we NEEDED to trade up to get McDavid or Eichel, then we have bigger problems than worrying about what we would have to give up to get them. But to answer your question, yes and possibly more depending on where NYI drafts and STL drafts. That may be just the starting package for those picks.

Just need to get this off my mind:

I think our team is in a situation where regardless of who we draft, we need to have Murray mold the team to allow proper development for prospects which allow them to come in at a time the prospects are ready.

They need to set up correctly the roster so when a player has been through the development phase they can be brought in having roles, depending on where they are development wise,to start to be groomed to take the guys spot that is above them on the Depth chart. Murray and others talk about having competition within, and usually the best competition should be taking place in your top 6 forwards and your top 4 D.

I would fully expect a HEAVY(no pun intended) focus on Free Agent signings that will make us competitive fairly quickly, but at the same time allow guys like Girgensons(who I think may be our 2nd line center next year) and Reinhart and Grigorenko to play in spots where they can grow as players by giving them type of minutes that gives them the ability to grow correctly. One of Reinhart/Grigorenko, IMO, is playing wing somewhere in the middle 6 of this team next year. I'm thinking one or two prospects who, we as a board, likes, to be moved at some point.

As for the drafting of possibly McDavid or Eichel, it would give us a chance to use assets we have to improve our team somewhere else.

I'm not focusing on the guys we don't have right now, I'm just worried about the ones we do have. It's still early in the year, all it takes is 2 other teams to have serious injuries or run into a bad streak in the year for us to be booted out of a top 2 pick zone.

 

[jvirk]

Subban
Galchenyuk
2016 1st

for

#1 overall in 2015

LOL yeah i know i'm not even close but that's how much I value it...

 

[Husko]

Subban
Galchenyuk
2016 1st

for

#1 overall in 2015

LOL yeah i know i'm not even close but that's how much I value it...

And the 2015 pick.

And then yes, you're on the right track.

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

And the 2015 pick.

And then yes, you're on the right track.

Ya, it would take a perennial all-star/NHL hardware winner + young top 6/4 player with top 3/2 upside+ 2 1st level assets (picks or top prospects) + depth roster player with a decent contract or a NHL caliber goalie.

 

[RobertR]

2015 1st (McEichel)
Myers

to



Hedman
Kucherov
Vasilevskiy

Meh, I tried.

 

[Heraldic]

2015 1st (McEichel)
Myers

to



Hedman
Kucherov
Vasilevskiy

Meh, I tried.

I wouldn't do that even if you took Myers out of the deal.

 

[RobertR]

I wouldn't do that even if you took Myers out of the deal.

Seriously? First I went with Stewart instead of Myers, but I thought that wouldn't be enough from Tampas point of view..

I think if the deal is:



2015 1st

for



Hedman
Kucherov
Vasilevskiy

Buffalo takes that and runs. Thoughts?

 

[Heraldic]

Seriously? First I went with Stewart instead of Myers, but I thought that wouldn't be enough from Tampas point of view..

I think if the deal is:



2015 1st

for



Hedman
Kucherov
Vasilevskiy

Buffalo takes that and runs. Thoughts?

If that 1st rounder is McEichel, I doubt they do.

Hedman is the only proven commodity there, and he's not as valuable as is a surefire franchise center (and we need a center more). Hedman also has only three years left on his contract after this year, which is not an ideal contract for us. McEichel would be 7 years control at least. Kucherov is one-dimensional top-6 scoring winger, who hasn't yet proven himself enough. Vasilevskiy is a goalie prospect - not proven yet. I don't consider goalie prospects having too much value.