Prospect Info: Detroit Red Wings Annual Prospect Poll - #10!

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

1. Simon Edvinsson - LD
2. Marco Kasper - C
3. Jonatan Berggren - W
4. Sebastian Cossa - G
5. Elmer Soderblom - W
6. Albert Johansson - LD
7. Carter Mazur - W
8. William Wallinder - LD
9. Dmitri Buchelnikov - W
10.

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[Cake Eater]

While Sebrango is closer, I don’t see any upside past being a 6th-7th defenseman. Like Buium’s upside much better. .5 PPG as an 18 year old freshman D is pretty good.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

While Sebrango is closer, I don’t see any upside past being a 6th-7th defenseman. Like Buium’s upside much better. .5 PPG as an 18 year old freshman D is pretty good.

Sebrango was the #2D for a gold medal winning Canada squad. And wasn't he the only player not picked in the first round to be invited to Canada's 2021 camp? He's not going to put up a ton of points but Sebrango is the type of guy you'll want draped over the other team's top 6 forwards. Tenacious is an understatement for Sebrango's game.

I personally don't know what to make of Buium. He's an OK puck mover but not great at it. He's decent offensively but is missing the traits to really make it stand out. He's decent defensively but not great. He's big but not very physical. He's perfectly OK at everything.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Went back with Donavan Sebrango.

 

[Henkka]

Went with highest point-potential. It's still Niederbach.

 

[jaster]

This forum’s obsession with overrating toolsy guys who are a long way off and have largely unacknowledged holes in their game is at least consistent.

Sebrango.

 

[HisNoodliness]

This forum’s obsession with overrating toolsy guys who are a long way off and have largely unacknowledged holes in their game is at least consistent.

Sebrango.

For me personally it is a conscious, scouting philosophy decision. I would rather have 5 prospects in which 4 bust, but one ends up a top of the lineup player than 5 where 2 bust and 3 make it as low end players. Is Sebrango more likely to end up as something around Marchenko (in terms of impact, not style), than Buium? Absolutely. I just have a hard time imagining Sebrango as more than that.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

I think if a teams #10 ranked prospect is actually expected to play in the NHL with a high degree of certainty then thats a good thing.

Sebrango here w/o question.

 

[NickH8]

Ended up voting Sebrango for what he's already proven, but Buium can pass him if he takes some steps this year. James, Niederbach, and Dower Nilsson are all right there too.

 

[Hen Kolland]

For me personally it is a conscious, scouting philosophy decision. I would rather have 5 prospects in which 4 bust, but one ends up a top of the lineup player than 5 where 2 bust and 3 make it as low end players. Is Sebrango more likely to end up as something around Marchenko (in terms of impact, not style), than Buium? Absolutely. I just have a hard time imagining Sebrango as more than that.

Except for one critical flaw in your approach.

It's more likely that your strategy is going to require 100 attempts, 80 will fail, 19 will have NHL careers, and 1 will be a top of the lineup player.

The success rate of a player like Buchelnikov or Buium being a top of the lineup player is about as low as it can get. Teams don't have a 20% hit rate on top of the lineup players with day 2 draft picks.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

For me personally it is a conscious, scouting philosophy decision. I would rather have 5 prospects in which 4 bust, but one ends up a top of the lineup player than 5 where 2 bust and 3 make it as low end players. Is Sebrango more likely to end up as something around Marchenko (in terms of impact, not style), than Buium? Absolutely. I just have a hard time imagining Sebrango as more than that.

So you want us to be the Edmonton Oilers?

In all seriousness, this is a classic example of confusing relative skill with absolute skill. I like Buium. I have watched him a ton and actually skated with him. While he shows some good offensive instincts at the NCAA-level (specifically from the blueline in) people are fooling themselves if they are expecting Erik Karlsson. In the totality of NHL prospects, he largely projects to be of the same general quality as Sebrango. Moreover, if you put Buium in the AHL tomorrow, you wouldn't see any offensive creativity or skill from him.

Personally, I think we all tend to over-project prospects. My recommendation is to save yourself the disappointment.

 

[gritdash60]

Really surprised you guys think Buchelnikov is as low as #9.

 

[Frk It]

This forum’s obsession with overrating toolsy guys who are a long way off and have largely unacknowledged holes in their game is at least consistent.

Sebrango.

I'll never vote for players like Joakim Andersson in this, and you can't make me!

(I like Sebrango and will be voting for him after Buium is gone)

Moreover, if you put Buium in the AHL tomorrow, you wouldn't see any offensive creativity or skill from him.

Might be true. But I think if he plays in the NCAA 1-2 more years, then goes to the AHL, you will be looking at a more impactful player in the AHL. Time will tell. The Wings were obviously high on him to move up and go get him, and he was seen as a 1st rounder by some (Central Scouting, Button, HP had him just outside RD1).

 

[grsbmd]

Really surprised you guys think Buchelnikov is as low as #9.

I mean, he was unranked by Central Scouting and has only played a couple of games since then. I'm surprised he's this high.

 

[RRhoads]

I mean, he was unranked by Central Scouting and has only played a couple of games since then. I'm surprised he's this high.

Was voted the best u25 player in Sochi open. Touted as one of the favorites to win the KHL rookie of the year award. And we've all seen the videoes. There's a lot to like about this kid.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

I'll never vote for players like Joakim Andersson in this, and you can't make me!

(I like Sebrango and will be voting for him after Buium is gone)


Might be true. But I think if he plays in the NCAA 1-2 more years, then goes to the AHL, you will be looking at a more impactful player in the AHL. Time will tell. The Wings were obviously high on him to move up and go get him, and he was seen as a 1st rounder by some (Central Scouting, Button, HP had him just outside RD1).

Sure, but Sebrango will also get better with another season in the AHL. The point was that Sebrango was thrown into the deep end straight away. I am not sure he would look considerably different from Buium if asked to play at a lower level in his D+1 (acknowledging that really wasn't an option). Time will tell I guess.

 

[gritdash60]

I mean, he was unranked by Central Scouting and has only played a couple of games since then. I'm surprised he's this high.

Well i think he has a really high "ceiling" (really dont like the term). What i mean is he has the natural skill that gives him the slight chance to be a absolute star. I guess it's a matter of what you value in these kind of rankings. If i was voting who is the most likely to get 100 games in the NHL maybe his position is correct, but if i'm voting for who has the potential to become a real difference maker for the team he should be higher IMO.

There for sure is players on the list that are more likely to have a solid NHL career in a lesser role, for example Mazur probably will get some games in the show maybe even become a solid 3rd liner. Does he have the skillset that if everything goes great he will be a star player? i don't see it. Does Buchelnikov have the skillset to possibly become a star player if everything goes great, i think so yeah.

And i'm not trying in no way to trash Mazur, just using him as an example and being bad in english.

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

Buium.

If Sebrango hits, I see a great bottom pair dman

If Buium hits, I see a top 4 dman.

If you want to argue which one is more likely to hit, I get it. I just went with potential.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Really surprised you guys think Buchelnikov is as low as #9.

I have a hard time rating him above Wallinder/Mazur/Johansson already. He's exciting, but at this point has not done anything in actual KHL games.

 

[r0bert8841]

Buium. He looked really good in the Denver games I watched last year. Can't believe he is still on the board. Sebrango is a decent prospect, but these results feel like recency bias. He has a low ceiling, and he really isn't that close to the NHL.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Alright. Results are in. Moving to #11!

 

[gritdash60]

I have a hard time rating him above Wallinder/Mazur/Johansson already. He's exciting, but at this point has not done anything in actual KHL games.

Yeah fair, likely a longshot.

 

[Cake Eater]

Sebrango was the #2D for a gold medal winning Canada squad. And wasn't he the only player not picked in the first round to be invited to Canada's 2021 camp? He's not going to put up a ton of points but Sebrango is the type of guy you'll want draped over the other team's top 6 forwards. Tenacious is an understatement for Sebrango's game.

I personally don't know what to make of Buium. He's an OK puck mover but not great at it. He's decent offensively but is missing the traits to really make it stand out. He's decent defensively but not great. He's big but not very physical. He's perfectly OK at everything.

Disagree, doesn’t have the skating to compete against top lines. Playing second fiddle against kids is much different.

 

[Cake Eater]

This forum’s obsession with overrating toolsy guys who are a long way off and have largely unacknowledged holes in their game is at least consistent.

Sebrango.

On the other hand, voting for the likes of Cory Emmerton, Joakin Andersson, Donovan Sebrango, Mattias Ritola, Neiderbach, and company do you nothing. Safe picks are worthless. Shoot for the stars, you can always fill in the back third of the roster with whatever for cheap.

They may make it, they may not, but what’s the point, they are easily replaceable by any low level contract.

 

[jaster]

On the other hand, voting for the likes of Cory Emmerton, Joakin Andersson, Donovan Sebrango, Mattias Ritola, Neiderbach, and company do you nothing. Safe picks are worthless. Shoot for the stars, you can always fill in the back third of the roster with whatever for cheap.

They may make it, they may not, but what’s the point, they are easily replaceable by any low level contract.

"Safe picks are worthless." Ha. Seems you haven't followed Wings prospects for very long. Larkin was a "safe pick." Seider was a "safe pick." I don't think "safe pick" is the term you mean to use here.

Yeah. I've heard this story for upwards of two decades from fans who get enamored with prospects who have a minuscule chance of success but who they perceive as having some crazy awesome upside. The AHL and SHL are littered with these guys (who seem to never be mentioned again by their draft-year fans, conveniently). And this story is just as silly now as it was when we drafted former #1 star defenseman Jakub Kindl in the 1st round in 2005, before he lead Detroit to its second dynasty.

Anyway. The reality is that you have a balance to strike in this process. Casting away anyone who doesn't show upper-echelon upside because they are "so easily replaceable" is just as short-sighted as rating high-ceiling/low-floor guys with very low proximity as high-ranking prospects. Those low-ceiling guys often wind up as key cogs on winning teams, and they aren't as easily acquired as the common narrative goes. Especially when it comes to ELCs and RFA contracts when a team is competitive.

I see what you did here though, tossing a guy who still has a range of outcomes into a pool of players from the past who have proven to be nobodies, in order to prove your point. Spicy. Unfortunately for your argument though, it's a bit disingenuous and lacks substance. If I believed Sebrango was going to for sure have the same degree of success as Emmerton, Andersson, or Ritola, you might have a point. But he still has a fairly wide range of outcomes. He can also become Ericsson, Helm, or Glendening. Guys who have been, or could easily be, key players on Cup teams, and who were not available "for cheap." We don't know yet, but Sebrango's proximity rating is high, and that matters.

Meanwhile, those high-ceiling/low-floor guys have a tiny chance of hitting. A vast majority will be outright busts who never sniff the NHL. So if we are playing the probability game, the chance-of-success vs. chance-of-stardom quotient matters. Mix the risky players with the safe players, that makes sense. But here at HFboards, the scale is quite a bit in favor of those super risky prospects with the [perceived] shiny ceiling.