Post-Game Talk: Despite Eakins' attempts, the Oilers beat Tampa 3-2

[McPuritania]

I am going to challenge you on this. Based on what?

Based on watching the team play.

He may be snake bitten on the score sheet, but he's busting his ass, playing well positionally, excellent back checking, creating plays, playing physically.

Who has been playing better than Yak? Hall and Nuge could definitely be argued for, and I wouldn't admonish anyone for saying so.

What has Yak done to deserve such low ice time?

 

[NewBoysClub97*]

I was mad at Eakins a lot, but I agree that Yak has to slowly show him he deserves it. He is getting better, but his 2 way game needs to improve a lot still. Why would he put Yak out there to defend the lead? I would have gave him a shift or two when they were still tied, but not at the end.

It's pretty clear the coach does not trust him defensively.

 

[Da McBomb]

I understand why some of you are not happy about Yak's lack of ice time last night, but with the way our first line was flying and matching up well against Stamkos, Eakins had them out there like every second shift at the end of the game, which was fine by me. And if we're protecting a lead in the 3rd, I'd much rather have Gordon's line taking defensive draws over Yak's line too.

One other little thing I noticed was when Tampa pulled their goalie and Hall was on the ice, but instead of staying on trying to get an easy goal/assist on an empty net, Hall skated straight to the bench to get someone else with fresher legs out there. Thats just a small sign of wanting the team to win over individual points. Also, Hall was great on the Schultz goal as well. Hall was out there for a VERY long shift and he was dead tired, but he still managed to work hard, get the puck, and skate past centre ice to dump the puck into the corner where Yak could chase it down, which lead to the goal. And Hall was rewarded with an assist for his great effort there.

 

[GMofOilers]

Based on watching the team play.

He may be snake bitten on the score sheet, but he's busting his ass, playing well positionally, excellent back checking, creating plays, playing physically.

Who has been playing better than Yak? Hall and Nuge could definitely be argued for, and I wouldn't admonish anyone for saying so.

What has Yak done to deserve such low ice time?

He was -5 in 2 games when the Nuge was out, when he was playing a little harder competition.

 

[Alawishis]

I would have liked to see Yakupov get an extra few shifts on the ice, but if you look at the ice-time break down, it reveals a much more complicated story:

http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20142015/TH020078.HTM

Yakupov played 16 shifts with an average of 40 seconds each. This is almost identical to Joensuu and is comparable with Purcell (19 shifts, 44 seconds avg), Arcobello (19 shifts, 36 seconds average), Draisaitl (17 shifts, 49 seconds avg)*, Perron (19 shifts, 47 seconds average), and even Pouliot (20 shifts, 37 seconds average).

* I don't have a problem with Draisaitl getting a push on the PP. You can't have him warming the bench the whole game and if he's on a 9 game tryout it's important for us to assess what we have.

The forwards noticeably getting a push were the 4-93-14 line, plus Gordon and Hendricks. When you consider that:

1. The Oilers were in a close game, and the #1 line was shadowing Stamkos, who played nearly 20 minutes;

2. The actual breakdown of Yak's icetime; only 3 shifts in the first, but we were on the PK for 4 minutes, and this increased to 6 and 7 shifts in the second and third periods. The #1 line appears to have the # of shifts taken increased in the third period when the game was on the line, which makes sense, so there's evidence Eakins shortened his bench, which is absolutely a defensible decision.

3. Positional/situational factors which could influence a coach's decision, such as the need to have two centres on the ice, who Tampa Bay is putting on the ice and how we're line matching, etc.

It appears that, while Yak's TOI looks paltry compared to the other forwards, he was being used as frequently or nearly as frequently as most of the other forwards on the team, save the obvious ones. Again, I would argue that Yak could have gotten more PP time, or maybe would have benefited from an extra couple of shifts, but to call it a "brutal" decision doesn't appear supported by the information we have available to us.

Eakins' post game comments also reflect a more favourable opinion of Yak and an increased willingness to put him on the ice. As the season continues, I think we'll see Yak more and his production should benefit as well.

Just my two cents!

Very well thought out and researched post. You really cut through the distorted perceptions most of us cling to.

I thought Eberle looked much better both offensively and defensively last night, as did the entire top line . Yakupov also looked better but he has not yet earned any PK time and that will certainly cut into his overall ice time. Yak is coming along and if he keeps it up the ice time will come. Be patient.

 

[molsonmuscle360]

He was -5 in 2 games when the Nuge was out, when he was playing a little harder competition.

+/- is the biggest ******** stat in sports. Watch back to those games and how many of those goals against are actually on Yak? I can remember 2 plays in that run that were Drai's fault and one that was Hunt's.

 

[McPuritania]

He was -5 in 2 games when the Nuge was out, when he was playing a little harder competition.

+/- is the biggest ******** stat in sports. Watch back to those games and how many of those goals against are actually on Yak? I can remember 2 plays in that run that were Drai's fault and one that was Hunt's.

Yak was at fault for a grand total of one goal against so far to my eye. And it was more of a group fail than anything. Not to mention our goaltending has been brutal outside of the last two games.

 

[DarkSaturn]

I'm pretty sure all the neighboring apartment tenants hate me now.

Amused myself by yelling 'BARR-BARRIOOOOO' in my worst italian accent every time he touched the puck.

That's a solid Hockey name. Adding it to my list alongside the likes of Klinkhammer and Clutterbuck.

 

[GMofOilers]

Yak was at fault for a grand total of one goal against so far to my eye. And it was more of a group fail than anything. Not to mention our goaltending has been brutal outside of the last two games.

Not going to disagree, just saying. We know how Yak preformed last year with harder competition. We seen it 2 games earlier.

All im saying is he is on the up very good thing, lets be patient. The minutes will come.

 

[Master Lok]

+/- is the biggest ******** stat in sports. Watch back to those games and how many of those goals against are actually on Yak? I can remember 2 plays in that run that were Drai's fault and one that was Hunt's.

Of course it is.

That's why the Oilers should put Perron's -8, Purcell's -7, Draisatl's -6, Schultz's -5 and Yakupov's -5 out on the ice to defend a one goal lead in the last minute. Entirely meaningless. I mean who wouldn't want to put those five players out there to defend a lead with faceoff in the Oiler zone?

 

[guymez]

Based on watching the team play.

He may be snake bitten on the score sheet, but he's busting his ass, playing well positionally, excellent back checking, creating plays, playing physically.

Who has been playing better than Yak? Hall and Nuge could definitely be argued for, and I wouldn't admonish anyone for saying so.

What has Yak done to deserve such low ice time?

Yak hasnt proven much yet except that he is committed to playing a more complete game. Now he has to execute that full time because he is still making some junior mistakes.
Sheltered minutes are perfect IMO and as he continues to show that he isnt singing from his own song sheet the minutes will come.

Whats the rush? You would think that the last 5 years of failure would have convinced you that rushing players is not the answer.

 

[dobiezeke*]

Based on watching the team play.

He may be snake bitten on the score sheet, but he's busting his ass, playing well positionally, excellent back checking, creating plays, playing physically.

Who has been playing better than Yak? Hall and Nuge could definitely be argued for, and I wouldn't admonish anyone for saying so.

What has Yak done to deserve such low ice time?

He has shown in the past that he is overwhelmed when played too many minutes and subsequently has demonstrated he is effective when sheltered. What is it that you are missing here?

What Eakins is doing with Yak is much more respectable towards Yak that what occurred last year - playing second line minutes, failing to be ineffective and then sitting in the press box.

Let the kid gain some confidence in a controlled environment - isn't that what the big complaint was with Hall/RHN/Eberle/Gagner/Cogliano?

 

[nexttothemoon]

Of course it is.

That's why the Oilers should put Perron's -8, Purcell's -7, Draisatl's -6, Schultz's -5 and Yakupov's -5 out on the ice to defend a one goal lead in the last minute. Entirely meaningless. I mean who wouldn't want to put those five players out there to defend a lead with faceoff in the Oiler zone?

Last season these were the 5 best in goals against (currently playing for the Oilers) at even strength while up by 1 goal... so in theory these are the 5 you want on the ice out there in the last minute to prevent a goal against while they have the lead...

HENDRICKS
MARINCIN
PETRY
EBERLE
JOENSUU

 

[SomeDudeOTI]

Last season these were the 5 best in goals against (currently playing for the Oilers) at even strength while up by 1 goal... so in theory these are the 5 you want on the ice out there in the last minute to prevent a goal against while they have the lead...

HENDRICKS
MARINCIN
PETRY
EBERLE
JOENSUU

Swap Gordon for Eberle and Fayne for Petry and that's what we were icing. Petry would be ok too. You pretty much just proved the other guy's point.

 

[Replacement*]

Last season these were the 5 best in goals against (currently playing for the Oilers) at even strength while up by 1 goal... so in theory these are the 5 you want on the ice out there in the last minute to prevent a goal against while they have the lead...

HENDRICKS
MARINCIN
PETRY
EBERLE
JOENSUU

Sorry, I gotta call this out. How many instances were there last year where the Oilers were up one goal AND ended up protecting it. This is limited sample stats and instances (you have to consider here that the instances, statistically speaking, are GP where this has occurred, rather than minutes.

I know the advanced stats community would like me to think such things as Fenwick and Corsi Close are gold but in the case of limited instances one preserved W data point would skew the curve as much as anything.

Its fairly meaningless to quote any such stat wherein the data points lack sample size.

 

[Replacement*]

Of course it is.

That's why the Oilers should put Perron's -8, Purcell's -7, Draisatl's -6, Schultz's -5 and Yakupov's -5 out on the ice to defend a one goal lead in the last minute. Entirely meaningless. I mean who wouldn't want to put those five players out there to defend a lead with faceoff in the Oiler zone?

Silly. Limited sample. Plus Nuge was -4 before the last game as had as many EVGA as nearly any forward on the team and even having missed two games.

The reason his +/- would look better is because of his stats being impacted by Taylor Hall pts production.

If Yak was playing with Hall all year every year his +/- would probably look a lot different.

 

[booyakasha]

Silly. Limited sample. Plus Nuge was -4 before the last game as had as many EVGA as nearly any forward on the team and even having missed two games.

The reason his +/- would look better is because of his stats being impacted by Taylor Hall pts production.

If Yak was playing with Hall all year every year his +/- would probably look a lot different.

so would Halls...

 

[Replacement*]

so would Halls...

Hall plays with Eberle as it is. Don't think for a moment Eberle is appreciably better at preventing GA than Yak is.

Plus that Yak is quickly becoming a physical beast that can just dominate other players. Recognizing that somebody should be working with Yak every practice on techniques to push opponents off the puck. He has the strength, he lacks some of the fundamentals. With Eberle he relies entirely on puck skills to try to survive own zone. Which is less suited for WC play where theres lots of power forwards that protect and retain the puck well.

 

[McPuritania]

Yak hasnt proven much yet except that he is committed to playing a more complete game. Now he has to execute that full time because he is still making some junior mistakes.
Sheltered minutes are perfect IMO and as he continues to show that he isnt singing from his own song sheet the minutes will come.

Whats the rush? You would think that the last 5 years of failure would have convinced you that rushing players is not the answer.

Meh, I don't think giving a couple more minutes to a first overall pick who's been in the league for a year and a half is rushing him. We have had problems rushing players, but I don't think Yak falls into that category.

He has shown in the past that he is overwhelmed when played too many minutes and subsequently has demonstrated he is effective when sheltered. What is it that you are missing here?

What Eakins is doing with Yak is much more respectable towards Yak that what occurred last year - playing second line minutes, failing to be ineffective and then sitting in the press box.

Let the kid gain some confidence in a controlled environment - isn't that what the big complaint was with Hall/RHN/Eberle/Gagner/Cogliano?

I don't give a lick what he has shown in the past, I care about what he has shown so far this season. He's shown a willingness to commit to the defensive side of the game, and hasn't looked lost at all.

 

[sundaysleftovers]

Lightning post game video - 7 minutes in, Eakins is all about the Yak!

 

[nexttothemoon]

Sorry, I gotta call this out. How many instances were there last year where the Oilers were up one goal AND ended up protecting it. This is limited sample stats and instances (you have to consider here that the instances, statistically speaking, are GP where this has occurred, rather than minutes.

I know the advanced stats community would like me to think such things as Fenwick and Corsi Close are gold but in the case of limited instances one preserved W data point would skew the curve as much as anything.

Its fairly meaningless to quote any such stat wherein the data points lack sample size.

It's from an entire season of data so maximum sample size possible. Until the Oilers actually improve in the next 5-10 years we won't see a larger sample size with more minutes with 1 goal leads.

So throw it in all the garbage if you like but then you pretty much have to throw all stats away as well.

I'm the first to point out the flaws in advanced stats such as fenwick/corsi but I give a lot more credence to GA/GF as it's much closer to the "reality" of what actually affects wins/losses.

It's undisputed that Hendricks is a guy you want out there in that situation.... solid defensively, can win pressure faceoffs... has size also so really just about the perfect guy to protect a 1 goal lead in the last minute.

Marincin/Petry/Fayne make sense as well... probably the best of the all around dmen so who better to have out there in the last minute.

Personally I don't know why teams don't just use 3 dmen on the ice in those last minute situations.

Ryan Smyth oddly enough had some of the best GA stats last season with a 1 goal lead... say what you will but the guy had decent defensive abilities out there and was one of the more reliable when protecting a tight lead.