Player Discussion Derick Brassard

[Micklebot]

You know better than this Micklebot.

Two or three years ago Zibanejad was 19 - 21 years old, a raw talent learning his trade in the NHL. I would expect a 25 - 27 year old to have better possession numbers.

I do agree with you that the special teams need improvement, but Ottawa's SF/SA (ranked 27th and 30th) differential is near the bottom of the league and that is an indication of possession time.

You're focused on the wrong side of the equation; Brassard had a down year. The two years prior his CF and CF rel were significantly better than this year.

 

[Holdurbreathe]

I'm suggesting that you bringing up GF/GA has absolutely nothing to do with point totals of a player.

Yes, I am also suggesting that his point totals will not be affected by possession time.

We managed to score the same amount of goals as the Rangers, that is what matters for point totals. What difference does possession make? We scored our goals one way, they did another? A goal is a goal, doesn't matter if a team has possession 90% of the time or 20% of the time if they score the same amount, which is what drives a players point totals. The amount of GA doesn't factor into a players point totals, it's only GF last time I checked.

The Rangers were/are a better team, but we are just as good, if not better offensively.

5 on 5 NYR outscored OTT 163 to 150.
5 on 4 NYR outscored OTT 37 to 35.
5 on 3 NYR outscored OTT 1 to 0.
4 on 4 OTT outscored NYR 6 to 3.
4 on 3 NYR outscored OTT 2 to 0.
3 on 3 OTT outscored NYR 5 to 2.

Powerplay NYR 18.6% OTT 15.8%

NYR were the better offensive team in 5 of these 7 categories.

The only category where Ottawa clearly out shone the Rangers was in SH goals, OTT outscored NYR 13 - 3 thanks to JGP and ZS.

However I don't necessarily think this is a show of great offensive strength more individual hard work and good fortune

So while the difference may not be that great, the NYR were the better team and better offensively overall, as well as defensively.

 

[Holdurbreathe]

You're focused on the wrong side of the equation; Brassard had a down year. The two years prior his CF and CF rel were significantly better than this year.

Thanks for the assist in making the point I have been trying to make.

Brassard is a reflection of how his team played, no surprise here!

Last year was a considerably worse year for the Rangers than the previous two years statistically.

 

[BondraTime]

5 on 5 NYR outscored OTT 163 to 150.
5 on 4 NYR outscored OTT 37 to 35.
5 on 3 NYR outscored OTT 1 to 0.
4 on 4 OTT outscored NYR 6 to 3.
4 on 3 NYR outscored OTT 2 to 0.
3 on 3 OTT outscored NYR 5 to 2.

Powerplay NYR 18.6% OTT 15.7%

NYR were the better offensive team in 5 of these 7 categories.

The only category where Ottawa clearly out shone the Rangers was in SH goals, OTT outscored NYR 13 - 3 thanks to JGP and ZS.

However I don't necessarily think this is a show of great offensive strength more individual hard work and good fortune

So while the difference may not be that great, the NYR were the better team and better offensively overall, as well as defensively.

The Rangers just traded their leading point getter over the past 2 seasons (by 10 points) to the Sens. The Sens got better offensively, get a huge addition to the PP, and don't have Dave Cameron behind the bench.

I don't see much reason to think that the Rangers are the better offensive team of the two.

 

[Micklebot]

5 on 5 NYR outscored OTT 163 to 150.
5 on 4 NYR outscored OTT 37 to 35.
5 on 3 NYR outscored OTT 1 to 0.
4 on 4 OTT outscored NYR 6 to 3.
4 on 3 NYR outscored OTT 2 to 0.
3 on 3 OTT outscored NYR 5 to 2.

Powerplay NYR 18.6% OTT 15.7%

NYR were the better offensive team in 5 of these 7 categories.

The only category where Ottawa clearly out shone the Rangers was in SH goals, OTT outscored NYR 13 - 3 thanks to JGP and ZS.

However I don't necessarily think this is a show of great offensive strength more individual hard work and good fortune

So while the difference may not be that great, the NYR were the better team and better offensively overall, as well as defensively.

A couple points worth mentioning:

First, we're comparing the situations the Zibanejad and Brassard find themselves in. So, it would make sense to compare their respective teams offense without their input. That might skew things a bit, particularly on the PP where Brassard was a difference maker, and Zibanejad really wasn't.

Second, Ottawa last season was missing MacArthur all year, a healthy Turris for 56 out of 82 games. They've also added Phaneuf who should be a significant boost offensively to the blueline.

Point is, Ottawa produced a similar level of offense in less than ideal circumstances, while NYR were fairly healthy (Nash and Stepan did miss some time, though even combined, not as much as or Mac Did and only marginally more than Turris on his own). So, if you feel Ottawa is likely to be healthier than last year (pretty safe assumption imo) and that the addition of Phaneuf will help the offense (again, safe assumption), I think it's fair to claim Ottawa is a more offensive team. Now, Coaching may change that, but Boucher is an offense first guy, so I'm not so sure. He's a PP specialist too which should help, as there was a clear lack of tactical diversity on our PP which was far too often extremely predictable.

 

[Holdurbreathe]

You're focused on the wrong side of the equation; Brassard had a down year. The two years prior his CF and CF rel were significantly better than this year.

Sure he did, while scoring a career high 27 goals and second most productive season with 58 points, second highest shooting% of 14.8 and his second highest FOW% at 50.22

These stats indicate Brassard had a career year, yet his possession numbers dropped likely because the team didn't play as well overall.

Micklebot I have no problem with Brassard being an Ottawa Senator, I am just not heaping a ton of expectation on a player that will be successful if his teammates play well and the system fits the players talents.

I have no doubt Brassard will put up 50 - 55 points, but anything after that is dependent on so many moving parts it is really unpredictable.

The PP alone is unpredictable, who would have thought EK would only score one PPG last year or that the PP would be so ineffective.

So while I have read and respect your thoughts on Brassard's future performance, I am taking a wait and see how the team shakes out before planning the Stanley Cup parade

 

[Micklebot]

Thanks for the assist in making the point I have been trying to make.

Brassard is a reflection of how his team played, no surprise here!

Last year was a considerably worse year for the Rangers than the previous two years statistically.

His team was a pedestrian possession team in 2014-15, yet he had sparkling 52.4% CF, and Rel CF of + 3.7. The year before that, they were a fantastic possession team, and he again had a great CF% of 53.4 but his rel numbers dropped to +1.4.

This year is likely the anomaly, not a cause effect relationship of the teams performance. Time will tell of course, as it's all speculation either way.

 

[BondraTime]

I hate advanced stats so much, though I do know they have some use.

 

[Holdurbreathe]

The Rangers just traded their leading point getter over the past 2 seasons (by 10 points) to the Sens. The Sens got better offensively, get a huge addition to the PP, and don't have Dave Cameron behind the bench.

I don't see much reason to think that the Rangers are the better offensive team of the two.

The Rangers lost a total of 7 points in the deal, definitely not enough to make them suddenly worse offensively than the Sens!!

I am also not one of the Zibanejad haters and don't discount the possibility he may just match Brassard's production playing for Vigneault.

I am very much aligned with you when it comes to the impact Boucher might have.

IMO Boucher and his staff are the key to the team making the playoffs.

 

[Holdurbreathe]

I hate advanced stats so much, though I do know they have some use.

I am not a big fan of them either, but without some baseline these discussions are nothing more than an exchange of opinions.

Now there is nothing wrong with opinion sharing, but it just seems more meaningful and enlightening when combined with some statistical analysis.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

So we've established two seemingly close but opposed positions.

One a frank , sincere position where we see Brassard not exceeding previous year point totals but achieving close to it in a range of 50 to 55 points.

and

Two a disingenuous position where Brassard achieves 60 or more points.

cool good discussion

 

[topshelf15]

The problem with Zibby has and always will be, his patience with the puck.He lacks the vision and the skill to create opportunities for his linemates.Brassard will bring more of what our wingers need from a center,which is speed ,puck carry ability and maintaining control of the puck while other set up for plays.As well as being able to complete passes at the right time

 

[BondraTime]

The Rangers lost a total of 7 points in the deal, definitely not enough to make them suddenly worse offensively than the Sens!!

I am also not one of the Zibanejad haters and don't discount the possibility he may just match Brassard's production playing for Vigneault.

I am very much aligned with you when it comes to the impact Boucher might have.

IMO Boucher and his staff are the key to the team making the playoffs.

Zib will not lead the Rangers in points, which Brassard has done. He was our 5th best point producing forward (Turtis injury notwithstanding). Brassard was at worse NYR 2nd best.

I guess I don't see how people think he's not in a better position to score points with the Sens. He's the better offensive player than Zib pretty easily, in a better role and better suited to the guys around him, playing in a supposed bad system where Zib just put up 51 points. The system will almost assuredly be improved, and PP easily will be improved.

 

[Holdurbreathe]

Boucher will address our possession issues.

Team was fed up with Mika's lack of commitment. Wanted a more reliable left handed centre.

The 2nd Rd Pick was definitely about the $, but if Ottawa really wanted a player in the 2nd Rd, they could easily acquire a pick if need be.

You read too much Garrioch

 

[topshelf15]

Zib will not lead the Rangers in points, which Brassard has done. He was our 5th best point producing forward (Turtis injury notwithstanding). Brassard was at worse NYR 2nd best.

I guess I don't see how people think he's not in a better position to score points with the Sens. He's the better offensive player than Zib pretty easily, in a better role and better suited to the guys around him, playing in a supposed bad system where Zib just put up 51 points. The system will almost assuredly be improved, and PP easily will be improved.

4 more points over last season,and one where he had a decent amount more quality ice time, about a min and half more.

He is what he is at this point,decent 2nd line center .Nothing really special,glad we moved on

 

[Super Cake]

You read too much Garrioch

Benjiv1 does have sources inside the Sens organization, so what he is saying could be true.

 

[Micklebot]

The Rangers lost a total of 7 points in the deal, definitely not enough to make them suddenly worse offensively than the Sens!!

I am also not one of the Zibanejad haters and don't discount the possibility he may just match Brassard's production playing for Vigneault.

I am very much aligned with you when it comes to the impact Boucher might have.

IMO Boucher and his staff are the key to the team making the playoffs.

The sens also added Phaneuf, and will presumably have Turris and MacArthur healthy.

Rangers also lost Yandle which have a huge affect, though to be honest, I don't see the point in comparing this years teams.

Brassard will come to a team that is better offensively than last years sens because
1) Healthy Turris and Mac
2) Phaneuf all season on the 2nd pair.

Last years sens, which I'm sure most can agree were not as good as we should expect this years to be, matched NYR's offense. So, is it outlandish to think that Ottawa will be the better offensive team?

 

[benjiv1]

You read too much Garrioch

I defended Mika throughout his entire career.

If the team traded him for an older centre with comparable numbers, there's a reason why.

 

[topshelf15]

The sens also added Phaneuf, and will presumably have Turris and MacArthur healthy.

Rangers also lost Yandle which have a huge affect, though to be honest, I don't see the point in comparing this years teams.

Brassard will come to a team that is better offensively than last years sens because
1) Healthy Turris and Mac
2) Phaneuf all season on the 2nd pair.

Last years sens, which I'm sure most can agree were not as good as we should expect this years to be, matched NYR's offense. So, is it outlandish to think that Ottawa will be the better offensive team?

Tbh ,the two teams have been constructed almost the same way.The Rags profile was done on Sirrus last night ,and something the commentator said rings true with our team ."We cant match the elite level of talent on some teams,but where we can beat them is on the secondary tier of talent"

This is how i feel Ottawa is going about things ,we havent found our superstar center yet .But it doesnt mean we still cant compete

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

The sens also added Phaneuf, and will presumably have Turris and MacArthur healthy.

Rangers also lost Yandle which have a huge affect, though to be honest, I don't see the point in comparing this years teams.

Brassard will come to a team that is better offensively than last years sens because
1) Healthy Turris and Mac
2) Phaneuf all season on the 2nd pair.

Last years sens, which I'm sure most can agree were not as good as we should expect this years to be, matched NYR's offense. So, is it outlandish to think that Ottawa will be the better offensive team?

If the top 6 can stay healthy with Mac returning and having Turris and Brassard as a one two punch, the prospect of Brassard helping Ryan's production, a very solid 2nd pairing with Phaneuf and Ceci both helping our transition and zone exits along with some improved production year over year and Wideman building on last year it is very possible we are better offensively than we were last year.

 

[topshelf15]

I defended Mika throughout his entire career.

If the team traded him for an older centre with comparable numbers, there's a reason why.

Time to move on ,he isnt the player we thought he would become .Is what iam thinking

 

[God Says No]

The sens also added Phaneuf, and will presumably have Turris and MacArthur healthy.

Rangers also lost Yandle which have a huge affect, though to be honest, I don't see the point in comparing this years teams.

Brassard will come to a team that is better offensively than last years sens because
1) Healthy Turris and Mac
2) Phaneuf all season on the 2nd pair.

Last years sens, which I'm sure most can agree were not as good as we should expect this years to be, matched NYR's offense. So, is it outlandish to think that Ottawa will be the better offensive team?

That's not the question though. Is this year's Sens better offensively than last year's NYR. I'd say no. They are pretty much equal. So I don't see how Brassard will put up more points than last year. I'm assuming he will put up similar numbers. High 50's.

 

[Holdurbreathe]

I am optimistic about it. I think he has a legit chance of exceeding his point totals.

Do you know what disingenuous means? "not candid or sincere" How is making a prediction that Brassard could top his annual point total not candid or sincere.

The framework could very well include more pp time. More ozone starts .... or just more chances to score, setup goals, playing with more productive players, chemistry...

Is it so far fetched to you that he breaks 60 points (previous high) that you'd consider an opinion that he will (Yes or No choice) disingenuous?

Disingenous - pretending that one knows less about something than one really does

So I was suggesting Samsquanch fully realizes the success of any player is dependent on the system and discipline of his team mates to adhere to it and not just individual contribution.

However if my choice of words offended him, I offer my apologies it wasn't my intent.

IMO this focus on how many points Brassard might produce is ignoring what is wrong with this team.

Brassard could produce 60+ points, but if the team misses the playoffs does that mean the trade was success, yet the season a bust?

Should Brassard produce 50 points and the team makes the playoffs, does that mean the trade and season were successful?

IMO this season is all about Boucher and his staff's ability to implement a system that optimizes the talent available, not about Brassard's totals.

 

[BondraTime]

That's not the question though. Is this year's Sens better offensively than last year's NYR. I'd say no. They are pretty much equal. So I don't see how Brassard will put up more points than last year. I'm assuming he will put up similar numbers. High 50's.

Are this years Sens better offensively than last years Sens?

It should be obvious that's a yes with a new offensive minded coach, a healthy Turris, Macarthur and Phaneuf. We had 60 point guys last season, and Brassard is likely our 2nd best offensive forward points wise.

 

[Micklebot]

That's not the question though. Is this year's Sens better offensively than last year's NYR. I'd say no. They are pretty much equal. So I don't see how Brassard will put up more points than last year. I'm assuming he will put up similar numbers. High 50's.

Last years sens without Phaneuf for 60ish games, without MacArthur for 78 games, with Turris either out of the lineup or skating around with a high ankle sprain from game 27 onward, put up similar offense to last years NYR.

This year, Ottawa should be better offensively than they were last year due to the above.

If 2015 Sens < 2016 Sens and 2015 Sens ~ 2015 NYR, than 2016 Sens > 2015 NYR

This off course doesn't factor in that Brassard is a better offensive player than Zibanejad was last year, and the relative situations being compared aren't the teams themselves, but rather the teams minus the players being swapped.