Prospect Info: Denis Gurianov - 12th Overall Pick, 2015

[Mr Misty]

Not a bad pick, I'm just confused as to why we didn't trade down. We could have gotten him at 20.

It's possible that the way Connor and Barzal fell, no team was as high on them as the media experts were. You need somebody who wants to come up if you want to move back. If the scouts were as high on him as they say, I have no problem not risking it.

 

[Kshahdoo]

Not a bad pick, I'm just confused as to why we didn't trade down. We could have gotten him at 20.

They say Boston could get him with one of their 3 picks.

 

[BigG44]

He was a riser, and there's absolutely no guarantee he's there at 20. Even McKenzie had him 21.

Maybe you could have gone back though... likely for a mid third round pick. You're not getting a 2nd unless it's 20 or later likely. I'd love the third, but if they are as high as they seem to be on him, it would be silly to risk losing him for a third.

Time will tell, but I guarantee you I'm more concerned about Nill and McDonnell's reaction to the guy than anyone else. If they think they got a good one ... great .. I'll trust their opinion on the guy. Apparently someone mentioned they specifically hired the Russian scout just to follow him in the 2nd half of the year. McDonnell said they knew he was their guy since November. There may be some danger of them being hyperfocused on a guy, but at least we know they were thorough (the exact opposite of the Glennie pick).

 

[LowSodium]

I guess I'm just annoyed that we could have used that pick to grab Dougie which would have made us close to being top competitors, instead we took the guy who won't be available for 2 years minimum. If Dougie actually signs for 5-5.5 I will be pretty upset. It's probably not management's fault, but it would be a pretty big missed opportunity.

 

[OttMorrow]

It's possible that the way Connor and Barzal fell, no team was as high on them as the media experts were. You need somebody who wants to come up if you want to move back. If the scouts were as high on him as they say, I have no problem not risking it.

The Islanders traded up to get Barzal. I'm sure they are jumping for joy to have stolen him. I think we made a mistake in not taking him. The Isles have to be over the moon to get Barzal at 16. You can justify and rationalize the Guryanov pick all day, but in the end it was a reach to take him at 12.

Unless nearly all of the major scouts collectively dropped the ball and Nill somehow saw the light on this guy...unlikely...then Nill is going to be eating crow on this one.

 

[LowSodium]

The Islanders traded up to get Barzal. I'm sure they are jumping for joy to have stolen him. I think we made a mistake in not taking him. The Isles have to be over the moon to get Barzal at 16. You can justify and rationalize the Guryanov pick all day, but in the end it was a reach to take him at 12.

Unless nearly all of the major scouts collectively dropped the ball and Nill somehow saw the light on this guy...unlikely...then Nill is going to be eating crow on this one.

Yep this is pretty much how I feel. I was so hyped when Barzal fell into our laps, and then we take a guy universally placed at 20. Even Connor would have been acceptable. Now we're going to have to play against Connor all the time.

Just be happy we aren't the Bruins right now I guess..

 

[OttMorrow]

Yep this is pretty much how I feel. I was so hyped when Barzal fell into our laps, and then we take a guy universally placed at 20. Even Connor would have been acceptable. Now we're going to have to play against Connor all the time.

Just be happy we aren't the Bruins right now I guess..

It felt very similar to the Campbell pick when we passed up on Fowler to go way off the board...maybe it's not quite as bad as the Campbell one, but the same feeling.

At least we aren't the Bruins...Yes, at least there is that. haha

Guryanov better be a god.

 

[Mr Misty]

The Islanders traded up to get Barzal. I'm sure they are jumping for joy to have stolen him. I think we made a mistake in not taking him. The Isles have to be over the moon to get Barzal at 16. You can justify and rationalize the Guryanov pick all day, but in the end it was a reach to take him at 12.

Unless nearly all of the major scouts collectively dropped the ball and Nill somehow saw the light on this guy...unlikely...then Nill is going to be eating crow on this one.

Obviously there isn't any way to know what offers were out there, but the Stars weren't going to be in on a 1st for Griffin Reinhart like the Oilers were. The value to jump over the Bruins 3 picks to us is going to be bigger than moving from say 19 to 16; maybe teams didn't want Barzal that badly.

As for the second bit, is your standard that a GM must get the best player available at that spot, or that he must get a player that fits the expected return of that pick? I don't think there is much need to eat crow if Barzal turns into a better player than Gurianov so long as our guy turns into a good NHLer.

 

[OttMorrow]

Guys, guys....Imagine how mad we'd have been if the Stars had done what some of us wanted them to do and tanked to the 6-8th spot and then still took Guryanov! haha. You KNOW that's what Nill would have done. I think Nill had Guryanov crazy high on his list.

I guess it could have been worse.

 

[LowSodium]

I don't think there is much need to eat crow if Barzal turns into a better player than Gurianov so long as our guy turns into a good NHLer.

You'd be surprised how many time's I've read the 2 words "Good NHLer" while browsing teams draft threads. With the #12 overall pick in this draft, just a "good" NHLer is not good enough honestly. This was one of those drafts where the top 15 or so guys all have a good chance at being all-stars, and I think we dropped the ball. I don't know if the Stars need to expand their scouting or what, but they focused on the wrong guy.

Of course these are all really early assumptions though.

 

[LT]

I've heard the Tarasenko and Kuznetsov comparisons in terms of situations, and I think this might be a rather applicable comparison.

It'll be at least 3-4 years before we really know what we've got with him, but I'm excited.

 

[LT]

Guys, guys....Imagine how mad we'd have been if the Stars had done what some of us wanted them to do and tanked to the 6-8th spot and then still took Guryanov! haha. You KNOW that's what Nill would have done. I think Nill had Guryanov crazy high on his list.

I guess it could have been worse.

Yup. Sounds like they had him at 6th at the absolute lowest, likely even higher.

 

[OttMorrow]

I don't think there is much need to eat crow if Barzal turns into a better player than Gurianov so long as our guy turns into a good NHLer.

For sure Nill will eat crow if Barzal is better than Guryanov long term because that was the opinion of 95% of the scouts. He went against the grain in a BIG way in a deep, deep draft with tons of consensus studs still on the board. Take your pick...Barzal, Connor, Konecny, Svechnikov...If ANY of these guys turn out to be better than Guryanov, then Nill is at fault because he took Guryanov about 10 picks earlier than he needed to in all likelihood.

That's like saying if you picked Eichel over McDavid even though almost everyone thought that McDavid was the better pick, that you wouldn't be at fault if McDavid turned out to be better. Yes...you would eat the crow. All of it.

We're talking about a pretty big reach here Misty. When you reach like that you better be flippin right about it 5 years from now. You're goal is to get the BPA at 12. These 1st Round reaches very seldom turn out to be the BPA from what I've seen. You save those kinds of moves for the later rounds.

 

[Mr Misty]

You'd be surprised how many time's I've read the 2 words "Good NHLer" while browsing teams draft threads. With the #12 overall pick in this draft, just a "good" NHLer is not good enough honestly. This was one of those drafts where the top 15 or so guys all have a good chance at being all-stars, and I think we dropped the ball. I don't know if the Stars need to expand their scouting or what, but they focused on the wrong guy.

What I mean to say is, if Guryanov turns into a 2nd line winger and has a lengthy career getting between 40 and 60 points year in and year out, is there any reason for a GM to be criticized for taking him? For me, the level of success that any player picked after 10 or so has seems pretty much random, so if your guy makes it and is productive it is hard to be mad about somebody else's guy becoming a superstar.

 

[Mr Misty]

For sure Nill will eat crow if Barzal is better than Guryanov long term because that was the opinion of 95% of the scouts. He went against the grain in a BIG way in a deep, deep draft with tons of consensus studs still on the board.

That's like saying if you picked Eichel over McDavid even though almost everyone thought that McDavid was the better pick, that you wouldn't be at fault if McDavid turned out to be better.

We're talking about a pretty big reach here Misty. When you reach like that you better be flippin right about it 5 years from now. You're goal is to get the BPA at 12. These 1st Round reaches very seldom turn out to be the BPA from what I've seen. You save those kinds of moves for the later rounds.

8 spots doesn't seem like that big a reach to me. And without trying to hurt anyone's feelings, it seems like "the scouts" is often just a big echo chamber of guys who aren't being hired by NHL teams to help them identify talent.

Honka was rated about where McKenzie rated Guryanov IIRC, so maybe this is how things are going to be.

 

[OttMorrow]

What I mean to say is, if Guryanov turns into a 2nd line winger and has a lengthy career getting between 40 and 60 points year in and year out, is there any reason for a GM to be criticized for taking him? For me, the level of success that any player picked after 10 or so has seems pretty much random, so if your guy makes it and is productive it is hard to be mad about somebody else's guy becoming a superstar.

Your goal in the 1st Round of an extremely deep draft with fallers on the board is to get the BPA amongst the players projected to go in the 1st. Plain and simple.

 

[Magic Mittens]

Apparently his skating and speed is near tops in this draft, and have you seen his shot? Damn lol

Was honestly confused when we took him, but sounds like we got a kid with amazing potential. Even in the hfboards thread of winners and losers, some had us in the winners column. Some of the videos I saw he reminds me a bit of kovalchuk

 

[OttMorrow]

8 spots doesn't seem like that big a reach to me. And without trying to hurt anyone's feelings, it seems like "the scouts" is often just a big echo chamber of guys who aren't being hired by NHL teams to help them identify talent.

Honka was rated about where McKenzie rated Guryanov IIRC, so maybe this is how things are going to be.

I was way more OK with the Honka pick. I had Honka at 12th on my list. We took him at 14. I have Guryanov at 31...so yeah...for me this is a different situation.

 

[OttMorrow]

Apparently his skating and speed is near tops in this draft, and have you seen his shot? Damn lol

Was honestly confused when we took him, but sounds like we got a kid with amazing potential. Even in the hfboards thread of winners and losers, some had us in the winners column. Some of the videos I saw he reminds me a bit of kovalchuk

Kovalchuk plays where right now? LOL

He'd better be Kovalchuk-good.

 

[Mr Misty]

I was way more OK with the Honka pick. I had Honka at 12th on my list. We took him at 14. I have Guryanov at 31...so yeah...for me this is a different situation.

If you don't mind me asking, why do you have him at 31? For contrast, McKenzie's final ranking was 21 (http://www.tsn.ca/mckenzie-s-final-ranking-mcdavid-eichel-and-1.300634) and this guy had him at 44

Full scouting report here:
http://lastwordonsports.com/2015/05/15/2015-nhl-draft-profile-44-denis-guryanov/

 

[LT]

I'd like to know how some of you guys accurately rate a guy who plays in Russia. Not trying to call anyone out, I'm genuinely curious.

Nill, McDonnell, and the rest of the crew seem very excited about this pick. If they are, there's no reason we shouldn't be.

 

[RastaRockett]

Not a bad pick, I'm just confused as to why we didn't trade down. We could have gotten him at 20.

I'm not sure, I saw him mocked to us at 12 before the draft. Whatever that means.

 

[Hull Fan]

A guy not many teams themselves saw outside of the major tournaments and you're saying you think he's a bust.

Look the kid came on their radar in November. They were so impressed that they actually hired another scout to watch him basically full time from then out and via this scout and the other tournaments he played in he rose up their boards like any other late riser. By April they were convinced he was top 10 on their board and took him when he was the highest player left at 12.

You can argue Barzal is better but the truth is his injury slowed him down and he didn't exactly blow anyone away with his junior team this season. He may turn out better but every team's draft board is different and Gurianov is McDonnell's guy.

 

[Dundalis]

For sure Nill will eat crow if Barzal is better than Guryanov long term because that was the opinion of 95% of the scouts. He went against the grain in a BIG way in a deep, deep draft with tons of consensus studs still on the board. Take your pick...Barzal, Connor, Konecny, Svechnikov...If ANY of these guys turn out to be better than Guryanov, then Nill is at fault because he took Guryanov about 10 picks earlier than he needed to in all likelihood.

That's like saying if you picked Eichel over McDavid even though almost everyone thought that McDavid was the better pick, that you wouldn't be at fault if McDavid turned out to be better. Yes...you would eat the crow. All of it.

We're talking about a pretty big reach here Misty. When you reach like that you better be flippin right about it 5 years from now. You're goal is to get the BPA at 12. These 1st Round reaches very seldom turn out to be the BPA from what I've seen. You save those kinds of moves for the later rounds.

Sure, just completely ignore the fact that Russians get marked lower simply for being Russian, especially if they aren't playing in NA. Your McDavid/Eichel comparison carries zero weight. One of the scouting services online even stated in their scouting report on Guryanov that they specifically rated him significantly lower due to the Russian factor.

A number of scouting reports said was a top 10 player based purely on talent. Many reports on him literally wrote Russian down in the weaknesses section. I've seen almost zero reports mention skill weaknesses, just concentration issues and being Russian. While mentioning his skating and shot as being amongst the best in the draft.

The bottom line is, if Guryanov being a reach has nothing to do with actual talent, but simply nationality, then as long as the Stars are comfortable that the Russian factor isn't an issue, it's not a reach.

 

[JCLiponfanboy*]

The Kid Looks great. Having him and Nichushkin as 1st and 2nd line Right wingers sounds pretty damn good for the future.