News Article: Dellow: Jets' record is great but long-term success requires better shot generation

[Whileee]

Similar to this:
Adjusted Possession Measures
And this:
Score-Adjusted PDO - NHL Numbers



Ya, I edited that but I was too late.

"The things Colorado does well results in a 106.7 PDO, in my opinion."

I have similar qualitative observations in Jets shot selection, but I do not see it as causing a successful team perform better than their shot differentials in a sustainable manner.

As to the Hellebuyck thing, I think a bit of this has to do with "big and boring" and also how goals both impact heuristics, IMO.

Do you really think Jets will finish this season with being 3 st dev above the typical season mean in dFenSh%?

I think it's very early in a very unusual season. The Jets' game state distribution is flat-out crazy, and I don't think there's any chance that they'll finish with that distribution.

I also don't think they'll continue to shoot at the same shooting percentage, but I think that shooting percentage and scores are not independent of shot attempts. I think that as the score effects even out and the Jets start chasing some games, or have longer stretches tied or in close games against poorer opposition (they've spent quite a bit of their time tied or close against teams like the Leafs, Pens, Jackets and Canes), their shot metrics will improve, and their shooting percentages will decline.

I've noted for some time that the Jets' style has changed since 2014/15, with a lot more emphasis on actual puck possession and fewer shot attempts. I think it's largely due to their changing team composition (skilled players that look for perfect plays and less-skilled players like Lowry and Armia that cycle and cycle their way through shifts in the offensive end, often without taking a shot). I don't know how much of that is coaching. I also noted early this season that the Jets' defensive posture was more compact, leading to a lot of shots against but fewer second chances or cross-slot chances. I made these observations before the shot metrics data for this season started to accumulate, so I guess I'm not as surprised as some.

I think the jury is out as to whether this style can be successful over the longer haul. I am certainly enjoying the lack of frequent gilt-edged scoring chances against, chasing games, and how they have been ruthlessly efficient in their offence. I can't think of very many "lucky" goals scored, though I think they need to take more shots to benefit more from luck.

I'm very skeptical of the approach of looking at some metrics and then cherry-picking video evidence to support it. Talk about "confirmation bias"... If you are going to use video evidence to assess a team's style and performance, you need to be as systematic as you would be with data like shot attempts, etc.

 

[Saidin]

I think it's very early in a very unusual season. The Jets' game state distribution is flat-out crazy, and I don't think there's any chance that they'll finish with that distribution.

I also don't think they'll continue to shoot at the same shooting percentage, but I think that shooting percentage and scores are not independent of shot attempts. I think that as the score effects even out and the Jets start chasing some games, or have longer stretches tied or in close games against poorer opposition (they've spent quite a bit of their time tied or close against teams like the Leafs, Pens, Jackets and Canes), their shot metrics will improve, and their shooting percentages will decline.

I've noted for some time that the Jets' style has changed since 2014/15, with a lot more emphasis on actual puck possession and fewer shot attempts. I think it's largely due to their changing team composition (skilled players that look for perfect plays and less-skilled players like Lowry and Armia that cycle and cycle their way through shifts in the offensive end, often without taking a shot). I don't know how much of that is coaching. I also noted early this season that the Jets' defensive posture was more compact, leading to a lot of shots against but fewer second chances or cross-slot chances. I made these observations before the shot metrics data for this season started to accumulate, so I guess I'm not as surprised as some.

I think the jury is out as to whether this style can be successful over the longer haul. I am certainly enjoying the lack of frequent gilt-edged scoring chances against, chasing games, and how they have been ruthlessly efficient in their offence. I can't think of very many "lucky" goals scored, though I think they need to take more shots to benefit more from luck.

I'm very skeptical of the approach of looking at some metrics and then cherry-picking video evidence to support it. Talk about "confirmation bias"... If you are going to use video evidence to assess a team's style and performance, you need to be as systematic as you would be with data like shot attempts, etc.

My biggest eye test is the not seeing all the break aways and 2v1's from previous seasons. Maybe I'm just missing them this year, but it sure looks like they've cut those out.

Mean while I've seen us get tons of 2v1's and break aways (we don't seem to finish on them though)...

 

[Flair Hay]

Bad news is it does seem like our team:

-hasn't worked nearly enough on our set plays after faceoffs.

-knows other teams have adjusted to what we do and we haven't figured it out.

Good news is it is probably fixable.

 

[Whileee]

My biggest eye test is the not seeing all the break aways and 2v1's from previous seasons. Maybe I'm just missing them this year, but it sure looks like they've cut those out.

Mean while I've seen us get tons of 2v1's and break aways (we don't seem to finish on them though)...

Agree. A lot fewer second chances and bang-bang plays.

 

[Ducky10]

I think it's very early in a very unusual season. The Jets' game state distribution is flat-out crazy, and I don't think there's any chance that they'll finish with that distribution.

I also don't think they'll continue to shoot at the same shooting percentage, but I think that shooting percentage and scores are not independent of shot attempts. I think that as the score effects even out and the Jets start chasing some games, or have longer stretches tied or in close games against poorer opposition (they've spent quite a bit of their time tied or close against teams like the Leafs, Pens, Jackets and Canes), their shot metrics will improve, and their shooting percentages will decline.

I've noted for some time that the Jets' style has changed since 2014/15, with a lot more emphasis on actual puck possession and fewer shot attempts. I think it's largely due to their changing team composition (skilled players that look for perfect plays and less-skilled players like Lowry and Armia that cycle and cycle their way through shifts in the offensive end, often without taking a shot). I don't know how much of that is coaching. I also noted early this season that the Jets' defensive posture was more compact, leading to a lot of shots against but fewer second chances or cross-slot chances. I made these observations before the shot metrics data for this season started to accumulate, so I guess I'm not as surprised as some.

I think the jury is out as to whether this style can be successful over the longer haul. I am certainly enjoying the lack of frequent gilt-edged scoring chances against, chasing games, and how they have been ruthlessly efficient in their offence. I can't think of very many "lucky" goals scored, though I think they need to take more shots to benefit more from luck.

I'm very skeptical of the approach of looking at some metrics and then cherry-picking video evidence to support it. Talk about "confirmation bias"... If you are going to use video evidence to assess a team's style and performance, you need to be as systematic as you would be with data like shot attempts, etc.

I don't think he "cherry picked" video at all. I think he used some good examples to indicate some of the issues the Jets might want to improve on to increase scoring chances. Was he supposed to show 500 short videos to prove his point?

I've watched every game myself, as have others. What he points out isn't isolated evidence, it's consistent in how they play. They give up possession in key areas too often, willingly in many instances.

I don't disagree that score effects play a contributing factor or that they have possibly been more selective in their shot attempts. There are still a lot of other factors related to it however.

Defensively they've relied on collapsing, call it more compact if you will but it's a collapsing zone. Its very conservative.

 

[KingBogo]

I think it's very early in a very unusual season. The Jets' game state distribution is flat-out crazy, and I don't think there's any chance that they'll finish with that distribution.

I also don't think they'll continue to shoot at the same shooting percentage, but I think that shooting percentage and scores are not independent of shot attempts. I think that as the score effects even out and the Jets start chasing some games, or have longer stretches tied or in close games against poorer opposition (they've spent quite a bit of their time tied or close against teams like the Leafs, Pens, Jackets and Canes), their shot metrics will improve, and their shooting percentages will decline.

I've noted for some time that the Jets' style has changed since 2014/15, with a lot more emphasis on actual puck possession and fewer shot attempts. I think it's largely due to their changing team composition (skilled players that look for perfect plays and less-skilled players like Lowry and Armia that cycle and cycle their way through shifts in the offensive end, often without taking a shot). I don't know how much of that is coaching. I also noted early this season that the Jets' defensive posture was more compact, leading to a lot of shots against but fewer second chances or cross-slot chances. I made these observations before the shot metrics data for this season started to accumulate, so I guess I'm not as surprised as some.

I think the jury is out as to whether this style can be successful over the longer haul. I am certainly enjoying the lack of frequent gilt-edged scoring chances against, chasing games, and how they have been ruthlessly efficient in their offence. I can't think of very many "lucky" goals scored, though I think they need to take more shots to benefit more from luck.

I'm very skeptical of the approach of looking at some metrics and then cherry-picking video evidence to support it. Talk about "confirmation bias"... If you are going to use video evidence to assess a team's style and performance, you need to be as systematic as you would be with data like shot attempts, etc.

IMO it is way too early to put a stamp on what this team is. At this point Scheifele plays almost an anti corsi game. Holds on to the puck looking for optimal opportunity to score and only shoots in high success situations. I just don't see raw corsi as a good measure of his play. If you did a thought experiment and changed the final outcome of a game to the team with the highest corsi, how long do you think it would take for Scheifele to adapt to optimize corsi numbers? Stop looking for optimal scoring situations moving to low % shots with the best chance of regaining the puck and thereby maintaining possession for continued low % scoring opportunities. IMO corsi is way too primitive of a measure and I have no doubt internally NHL teams have moved way past it.

 

[ps241]

Very interesting thread boys well done.

My 2 cents.

Maurice has commented in at least two interviews recently that he would like the guys to shoot more. Now that could just be talk but it might be something they have to fight through.

Secondly, Paul said in his interview yesterday that they are not as concerned with shots yielded and are more focused on eliminating higher danger changes and second chances. Not sure whether they are accomplishing it but it sounds like that is their focus.

I will be monitoring their shot differentials as the season progresses and hopefully we can start trending in the right direction. I think goaltending has been a very big part of our record to date. Now we sure as f*** deserve it but I would like to start climbing up in the shot differentials too.

 

[winnipegger]

If we assume the Jets have a problem generating and suppressing shots relative to league average (which seems to be the case) how does a team remedy this? It must be hell to isolate what's happening on the ice to cause discrepancies in the numbers. Even harder when a team is winning. It's one thing to realize you have a mouse in your house and another thing entirely to catch the damn thing.

 

[JetsFan815]

Bad news is it does seem like our team:

-hasn't worked nearly enough on our set plays after faceoffs.

-knows other teams have adjusted to what we do and we haven't figured it out.

Good news is it is probably fixable.

These same problems were there last season as well. I wouldn't hold my breath

IMO it is way too early to put a stamp on what this team is. At this point Scheifele plays almost an anti corsi game. Holds on to the puck looking for optimal opportunity to score and only shoots in high success situations. I just don't see raw corsi as a good measure of his play. If you did a thought experiment and changed the final outcome of a game to the team with the highest corsi, how long do you think it would take for Scheifele to adapt to optimize corsi numbers? Stop looking for optimal scoring situations moving to low % shots with the best chance of regaining the puck and thereby maintaining possession for continued low % scoring opportunities. IMO corsi is way too primitive of a measure and I have no doubt internally NHL teams have moved way past it.

WOW! Looks like this post was copy-pasted from the Avs or the Leafs boards from a few seasons ago.

And the Scheifele line does not play anyway like you describe. I have watched every game, some more than once and the reason they and the Jets have bad Corsi is because they are not in a position to shoot as much as they can not that they are "not shooting enough". Infact Wheeler and Scheifele have always been 50%+ Corsi players and by quite some margin.

 

[Ducky10]

More than a few DZW's last night that look like they could have been straight from these videos. It's almost as if someone expected it.

 

[Aavco Cup]

More than a few DZW's last night that look like they could have been straight from these videos. It's almost as if someone expected it.

I was also paying attention to some of the things mentioned in this article. They had a plan to disrupt our breakout and executed it pretty well but so much of it still seemed self inflicted.

 

[Ducky10]

I was also paying attention to some of the things mentioned in this article. They had a plan to disrupt our breakout and executed it pretty well but so much of it still seemed self inflicted.

Yep, it was definitely both. They don't do a good job of adjusting very often, they continually just try and force the play into the same areas.

 

[Board Bard]

If we assume the Jets have a problem generating and suppressing shots relative to league average (which seems to be the case) how does a team remedy this? It must be hell to isolate what's happening on the ice to cause discrepancies in the numbers. Even harder when a team is winning. It's one thing to realize you have a mouse in your house and another thing entirely to catch the damn thing.

Solution: bring in a different (better) mouse catcher.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Solution: bring in a different (better) mouse catcher.

What if you hate cats?

 

[Board Bard]

What if you hate cats?

Then hire a new coach.

 

[Halberdier]

Secondly, Paul said in his interview yesterday that they are not as concerned with shots yielded and are more focused on eliminating higher danger changes and second chances. Not sure whether they are accomplishing it but it sounds like that is their focus.

PoMo might not be the most successful NHL coach out there, but he is certainly not an idiot.

Raw Corsi means nothing, and Maurice knows that, while most people on HF Boards still doesn't get it. It's the amount of high quality scoring changes, including rebounds and second wave scoring changes.

 

[ecolad]

Yep, it was definitely both. They don't do a good job of adjusting very often, they continually just try and force the play into the same areas.

And those areas tend to get real crowded real quick as the other team anticipates our very predictable breakout pattern and outmans us with an aggressive overload forecheck. Lots of turnovers and quick strike attacks on our net as a result

 

[Whileee]

These same problems were there last season as well. I wouldn't hold my breath



WOW! Looks like this post was copy-pasted from the Avs or the Leafs boards from a few seasons ago.

And the Scheifele line does not play anyway like you describe. I have watched every game, some more than once and the reason they and the Jets have bad Corsi is because they are not in a position to shoot as much as they can not that they are "not shooting enough". Infact Wheeler and Scheifele have always been 50%+ Corsi players and by quite some margin.

Biggest Corsi drag has been the Scheifele line. Any explanations?

 

[KingBogo]

Biggest Corsi drag has been the Scheifele line. Any explanations?

They score too much. Nothing kills a good Corsi number like getting a goal. By definition you lose possession as they stop play and then they make you take a faceoff way out in the neutral zone. Much better to shoot weakly wide and regain possession

 

[Aavco Cup]

Then hire a new coach.

That connection makes zero sense.

Not with an 8-4-3 record they won't

 

[puck stoppa]

That connection makes zero sense.

Not with an 8-4-3 record they won't

Wait till Mason gets hot these next two games! Well be 16-8-5

 

[Mbraunm]

I have no confidence in Maurice’s ability to fix any of the year issues. I mean look at our PK, PP and zone entries.
One has to wonder if the talent on the team is keeping Maurice afloat.

 

[Gm0ney]

Yeah last night's game was a bit of a textbook illustration of the problems the Jets are having breaking out of their own zone and getting established in the offensive zone. Lowry's line is reasonably effective at dump and chase, but the other lines have difficulty with it - and yet that's the go-to zone entry (except when Ehlers decides to go for it). There's no puck support. The Powerplay entries are godawful - everyone's standing still, Buff skates it out from behind his net and has no one to pass to and it all falls apart. This isn't all on the players - the coaches either aren't getting through or whatever they're telling them to do is not effective.

 

[JetsFan815]

Biggest Corsi drag has been the Scheifele line. Any explanations?

They play against the best players on the other team and the Jets structural issues are more easily exposed by the best players in the NHL

 

[Aavco Cup]

Biggest Corsi drag has been the Scheifele line. Any explanations?

They need to be sheltered?

I think they'll figure it out