David Jiricek or Chicago's 2023 1st Round Pick?

[CBJWerenski8]

A friend of mine asked me this question a few weeks ago, and I have battled with it for a long time. Was curious on everyones thoughts as well.

Context:

When the Jackets traded Seth Jones to Chicago. It included a conditional first round pick. The pick was either going to be a 2022 first or 2023 first depending on the results of the 2022 NHL draft lottery. If the Blackhawks won the lottery and selected either 1st or 2nd overall in 2022, we would have received their 2023 pick (unprotected) instead. Obviously, that did not happen and we received their 2022 pick and selected David Jiricek with the 6th overall pick that year. Jiricek was very impressive in his first pro season and is arguably the best defenseman prospect in the league as well as one of the top prospects overall in hockey.

But lets assume you can control destiny. Chicago and Columbus would still finish 31st and 30th overall respectively in this scenario. You can reverse the decision and either choose between Jiricek or their 2023 pick. Obviously we don't know where it will land in this lottery, but you have to make the call right now.

Would you rather have Jiricek or the 2023 Chicago pick?

If you choose the pick, the CBJ would have 25% chance to pick 1st overall. And also have decent odds to select first and second overall. However, there is also a chance they would pick 4th and 5th overall.

Roll the dice with the picks or are you satisfied with having our own first this year AND Jiricek.

Click to read more...

 

[Doggy]

Here's the problem with your question. Hawks have been in tank mode ever since they knew they were not having a first round pick last year and that they had a golden opportunity to be in the Bedard sweepstakes. If the Hawks had a top two pick last year they probably don't move Debrincat and Dach or any of several other moves they made knowing that a tank wouldn't help them because they wouldn't have a first round pick this year.

It just makes this entire exercise impossible to fairly consider.

 

[majormajor]

Leaving aside that Chicago tanked for their pick...

I'm still taking Jiricek. Top 3 pick > Jiricek > 4th or 5th pick. And Chicago is 70% chance of 4th or 5th.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Here's the problem with your question. Hawks have been in tank mode ever since they knew they were not having a first round pick last year and that they had a golden opportunity to be in the Bedard sweepstakes. If the Hawks had a top two pick last year they probably don't move Debrincat and Dach or any of several other moves they made knowing that a tank wouldn't help them because they wouldn't have a first round pick this year.

It just makes this entire exercise impossible to fairly consider.

I already clarified this by saying you control destiny and Chicago finishes 30th and we finish 31st, I’m aware they probably would have tried a little harder. But they still weren’t going to be good.

 

[Finner]

Chi 1st. Jiricek is great piece for future but having 2nd and 3rd best chance to get Bedard anytime. Could get Bedard and Fantilli or Fantilli and Carlsson. Roll the dice

 

[BB88]

Chi 1st. Jiricek is great piece for future but having 2nd and 3rd best chance to get Bedard anytime. Could get Bedard and Fantilli or Fantilli and Carlsson. Roll the dice

Could also get none of them.

Chicago would have been bad anyways but with their 2023 1st they went full fire sale tank.

Strome, Dach, DeBrincat were shown the door

 

[Doggy]

I already clarified this by saying you control destiny and Chicago finishes 30th and we finish 31st, I’m aware they probably would have tried a little harder. But they still weren’t going to be good.

You can qualify your poll all you want but it doesn't change the fact that if Chicago gets a top two pick in last year's draft they likely don't liquidate the roster last off season and most likely don't finish in the bottom four or five. It's a meaningless exercise.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

You can qualify your poll all you want but it doesn't change the fact that if Chicago gets a top two pick in last year's draft they likely don't liquidate the roster last off season and most likely don't finish in the bottom four or five. It's a meaningless exercise.

Neither of the top two picks made any impact in the NHL this year (none of the picks did, actually).

Chicago went out and signed Domi and other rentals for the pure value of trading them for draft capital. It wasn’t like they were going to go out and try to sign Gaudreau, Palat, or hang on to DeBrincat if they got Slafkovsky/Wright/whoever.

The poll was just a for fun, interest level thing. But I guess not everyone likes that

 

[stevo61]

We would have a massive hole in the system on defense and end up reaching a bit on Reinbacher anyway

 

[Columbus Jack]

I'm taking Chicago's pick because they're winning the lottery and getting Bedard.

 

[MoeBartoli]

I'm taking Chicago's pick because they're winning the lottery and getting Bedard.

Yes, but isn’t that’s because the pick would be Chicago - not Columbus?

 

[LetsGOJackets!!]

As badly as I want Bedard. and that has grown as the injuries and losses mounted... I do not think we have the success I think we can without David Jiricek as our top line RHD. Jarmo, Ville & team showed remarkable patience and planning with their drafts the last two years. Getting a top 3 pick.. (Bedard, Fantilli or Carlson) as our future top line Centre getting Tex back, ZW, Bean and if one of (Mateychuk, DBB, or Dumais) hit it as big as their potential shows - then we just need better goal tending in 2023 - 24.

 

[LetsGOJackets!!]

Could also get none of them.

Chicago would have been bad anyways but with their 2023 1st they went full fire sale tank.

Strome, Dach, DeBrincat were shown the door

& Kane, they traded goal tending - they allowed Toews to sit out a complete year - Chicago tanked for two two years - that doesn't happen if they don't have this years first. and all we needed to do was to lose to Pittsburgh - who appear to not want us to have any chance to draft Bedard. They know what Crosby and Malkin have done to us the last 16 years.

 

[EspenK]

Tough question. I am happy with Jiricek but having a better shot at Bedard and one of Fantilli or Carllson I'd be awfully tempted to take a flyer.
For those guys who want to get all esoteric on your question just look at it as would you trade Jiricek right now for Chicago's 1st? Forget how and why they are where they are and decide yes or no would you make the trade.
As much as I would love to take the shot I wouldn't make the trade today,

 

[BB88]

& Kane, they traded goal tending - they allowed Toews to sit out a complete year - Chicago tanked for two two years - that doesn't happen if they don't have this years first. and all we needed to do was to lose to Pittsburgh - who appear to not want us to have any chance to draft Bedard. They know what Crosby and Malkin have done to us the last 16 years.

I didnt want to mention Kane because he was a trade deadline move.

I just don’t see how they would have gone into full fire sale mode without their own pick in this draft. There would have been little to gain.

Columbus got a franchise Dprospect who filled a massive need, tough to complain about that

 

[alphafox]

Honestly, I'd go with Chicago's pick, but it's mostly a preference for hockey style. We are probably a better, more well-rounded, team with Jiricek as he is better than any D in this year's draft, but the Chicago picks gives the potential for some of the most fun hockey s since the Capital's fire wagon hockey days. Even if both teams get pushed down 1 slot we would be looking at a top 9 in a few years that looks like:

Laine-Carlsson-Gadreau
Texier-KJ-Michkov
Jenner-Silinger-Marchenko

It frees up Roslovic, Foudy, and Chinakhov along with the Kings pick and next years first to trade for D and goalie help (and potentially clear Elvis cap if necessary). Plus you can extend the championship horizon by eventually trading Laine as well.

 

[BB88]

Honestly, I'd go with Chicago's pick, but it's mostly a preference for hockey style. We are probably a better, more well-rounded, team with Jiricek as he is better than any D in this year's draft, but the Chicago picks gives the potential for some of the most fun hockey s since the Capital's fire wagon hockey days. Even if both teams get pushed down 1 slot we would be looking at a top 9 in a few years that looks like:

Laine-Carlsson-Gadreau
Texier-KJ-Michkov
Jenner-Silinger-Marchenko

It frees up Roslovic, Foudy, and Chinakhov along with the Kings pick and next years first to trade for D and goalie help (and potentially clear Elvis cap if necessary). Plus you can extend the championship horizon by eventually trading Laine as well.

None of those pieces are landing Jiricek level prospect.

They are already down a quality Dman with Jiricek.
Without Jiricek you’d have to find a new #2 and #3.

They’d be miles away from contending

 

[alphafox]

None of those pieces are landing Jiricek level prospect.

They are already down a quality Dman with Jiricek.
Without Jiricek you’d have to find a new #2 and #3.

They’d be miles away from contending

Didn't say we'd land a Jiricek-level prospect, but honestly, you aren't landing any of the top 10+ in this draft with most of that combination. So it's a would you rather question do you want a well-rounded team or a team that might be the best in the league at one phase of the game? The real question that we are seeing play out with a team like the Oilers is how good of a defense would you need to take this group (assuming they hit their projected ceilings) to championship contender status?

Regardless, one of the biggest questions we face after this draft is what our d-prospect pool turns into behind Jiricek. Between Mateychuk, Ceulmans, and Svozil we need at least one of them to become an above-average second-pair guy and one to be a second-pair as well.

 

[punk_o_holic]

I would go with Jiricek and hope Columbus gets 1 or 2. You'll have a potential franchise C and D to build around. Add in the other young pieces they have and things are looking great.

 

[BB88]

Didn't say we'd land a Jiricek-level prospect, but honestly, you aren't landing any of the top 10+ in this draft with most of that combination. So it's a would you rather question do you want a well-rounded team or a team that might be the best in the league at one phase of the game? The real question that we are seeing play out with a team like the Oilers is how good of a defense would you need to take this group (assuming they hit their projected ceilings) to championship contender status?

Regardless, one of the biggest questions we face after this draft is what our d-prospect pool turns into behind Jiricek. Between Mateychuk, Ceulmans, and Svozil we need at least one of them to become an above-average second-pair guy and one to be a second-pair as well.

Do you want a Edmonton style team or Tampa/Chicago/Boston style team?

I would go with Jiricek and hope Columbus gets 1 or 2. You'll have a potential franchise C and D to build around. Add in the other young pieces they have and things are looking great.

#3 pick would give them that as well

 

[rotsbu]

I still go Jiricek. Developing as well or better than expected, and (potential) top-pairing RDs are hard to come by. Even though we still need a 1C, the whole bird-in-the-hand thing...

 

[stevo61]

Do you want a Edmonton style team or Tampa/Chicago/Boston style team?



#3 pick would give them that as well

Where does a Pittsburgh style team fit into this

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Where does a Pittsburgh style team fit into this

There are only two styles of teams.

 

[stevo61]

There are only two styles of teams.

Winners and losers?

 

[alphafox]

Do you want a Edmonton style team or Tampa/Chicago/Boston style team?

Where does a Pittsburgh style team fit into this

I'll be honest Pittsburgh, the Caps, and the Avs were the teams I was thinking of. I generally prefer a much more rush focused (or at least capable) style of hockey as a fan and those have been by far my favorite teams to watch over the last decade or so even as I was going to Blackhawks games in Chicago during college. Maybe it's just a hangover from all the years of slow-grinding hockey the jackets have been forced to play to fend off much more talented teams but I'd prefer to have a team that outscores their opponents rather than holding on to desperate leads they managed to scrape create by hammering away at loose pucks in the crease.

Also, I do think all of the teams that both of us have listed conform to a similar pattern that either choice of this thread likely gets us. Most of these teams had overwhelming offensive capability when they won their cups (CHI-Toews/Kane/Hossa/Saad, WSH-OVi/Backstrom/Kuznetsov/Oshie, PIT-Crosby/Malkin/Staal/Kessel/Hornquivst, TBL-Stamkos/Kucherov/Point/Killorn/Palat, AVS Mackinnon/Rantanen/Landeskog/Kadri/Burakovsky) and paired that with a #1D that led a deep d-corps. Its not that I think Jiricek is somehow inherently worse, but as I look at our prospect pool I see guys a lot closer to a #1D (Werenski/Mateychuk) than I do any of the top tier offensive guys listed. I think its arguable that Gadreau, KJ and Laine are #3,4, and 5 on most of these teams and at best 2,3,4.