Data Request: Team Playoff Matchups

Discussion in 'The History of Hockey' started by Hockey Outsider, Mar 27, 2007.

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  1. Hockey Outsider

    Hockey Outsider Registered User

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    Hi everyone. I’m looking for two sets of data. I’m wondering if anybody knows where I can find it (aside from going to Hockeydb.com or a similar site and just manually copying and pasting it into Excel).

    1) The results of the matchups of different seeds in different rounds. For example, how often does the #1 seed beat the #8 seed?
    2) Playoff series lengths. What percentage of series end in 4, 5, 6 or 7 games? Does this change significantly in different rounds?

    Thanks.

    (If anybody is curious, I’m trying to make a playoff pool for some friends where participants are rewarded for making risky picks (ie upsets) and receive fewer points for making safe picks (ie the favorite will win in 6 games. In order to come up with a fair system, I need some historical data to determine the probability of, say, the #3 seed beating the #6 seed).
     
  2. Kyle McMahon

    Kyle McMahon Registered User

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    I don't know anywhere it's actually listed out, but I was curious myself so I checked using HockeyDB and the official guide. As far as I can tell it's like this:

    #1 is 17-7 vs #8
    #2 is 10-14 vs #7
    #3 is 17-7 vs #6
    #4 is 18-6 vs #5

    Some of those might be off by a number or two if I made a mistake somewhere so you probably want to double check them, but they're pretty close at least.

    1 v 8 was about what I expected, as was 2 v 7, because I know that a #7 always seems to upset a #2. What was most surprising is the dominance of the #3 and #4 seeds, because you'd think that those would be more likely to have upsets. Sometimes the #4 seed is the second best in the conference in terms of points, so I guess that's one theory on their dominance. So, will people who take a #2 in your pool be rewarded for a risky pick?
     
  3. pnep

    pnep Registered User

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  4. Hockey Outsider

    Hockey Outsider Registered User

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    Thanks for taking the time to do the research, I appreciate it.

    Hmm, this does complicate things a bit. I was hoping for a steady pattern where 1 beats 8 routinely, 2 beats 7 fairly often, etc., and 4 and 5 are practically even. I can't use the results as they are now, so I think I'll do some more research (expand to include previous years and/or results from beyond the first round) and see if there are any patterns. I'll post the results here if there's anything interesting.

    Thanks for the great work like always, Pnep. The data is pretty much what I expected it to be, but it's nice to confirm the facts.
     

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