Confirmed with Link: DAMIANI TO FLAMES

The Tourist

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piqued

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This is my chance to repeat the mantra that most guys are the best you'll ever see them at 20 years old. The amount of players (all players, not just NHLers) who actually improve past that point is shockingly rare.

Like KCB said on the main boards, even if you were looking out for Damiani especially, he had just turned into such a pedestrian player that you'd never think he was challenging for the NHL at one point. When these fringe guys get put on the same team as actual prospects with real futures the difference becomes immediately clear.
 
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eartotheground

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This is my chance to repeat the mantra that most guys are the best you'll ever see them at 20 years old. The amount of players (all players, not just NHLers) who actually improve past that point is shockingly rare.

Like KCB said on the main boards, even if you were looking out for Damiani especially, he had just turned into such a pedestrian player that you'd never think he was challenging for the NHL at one point. When these fringe guys get put on the same team as actual prospects with real futures the difference becomes immediately clear.
20 might be a bit young, but your point still stands. there's a handful of studies out there, they seem to vary, but point to 24-27 depending. here's a few.



 
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hairylikebear

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20 might be a bit young, but your point still stands. there's a handful of studies out there, they seem to vary, but point to 24-27 depending. here's a few.



There's a difference between a young player getting more experienced and earning more ice time and a player's actual technical skills improving. The stats analysis of this problem is going to have trouble separating the two.
 

eartotheground

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There's a difference between a young player getting more experienced and earning more ice time and a player's actual technical skills improving. The stats analysis of this problem is going to have trouble separating the two.
experience is knowing when to employ which technical skill, ie, it's a skill all it's own.

it comes down to how you define from @piqued 's original post, 'that most guys are the best you'll ever see them at 20 years old.' if experience improves them, are they not better?

i'm not sure it matters if you're improving in athleticism or just knowing what you should be doing, the end result is you're a better player. also fwiw, i can't believe that guy's tradition skills don't improve beyond 20. when you keep doing a thing for 1000s of hours, you're going to get better at it. i think you can make a case that some may deteriorate while others improve. say at some point, you can't skate as fast, but at the same time your ability to tip the puck has improved.
 
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hairylikebear

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experience is knowing when to employ which technical skill, ie, it's a skill all it's own.

it comes down to how you define from @piqued 's original post, 'that most guys are the best you'll ever see them at 20 years old.' if experience improves them, are they not better?

i'm not sure it matters if you're improving in athleticism or just knowing what you should be doing, the end result is you're a better player. also fwiw, i can't believe that guy's tradition skills don't improve beyond 20. when you keep doing a thing for 1000s of hours, you're going to get better at it. i think you can make a case that some may deteriorate while others improve. say at some point, you can't skate as fast, but at the same time your ability to tip the puck has improved.
I'm talking specifically about when a player isn't actually improving, but ice time increases, such as in cases of injury, or coaches having a trial period before they trust a player within their system.
 

Ghost of Kyiv

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I think we're talking about all hockey players and prospects as opposed to just NHLers.

There's 220+ guys drafted every year and maybe 50 have decent NHL careers, the other 75% probably fit into the category of "peaking at 20". As with any discussion on prospects, you're looking for the exception to the rule, most prospects fail to grow significantly.
 

eartotheground

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I'm talking specifically about when a player isn't actually improving, but ice time increases, such as in cases of injury, or coaches having a trial period before they trust a player within their system.
gotchya. in theory, that should be accounted for in the analysis as injury is spread out, and trial periods are both ubiquitous and short relative to a career.

I think we're talking about all hockey players and prospects as opposed to just NHLers.

There's 220+ guys drafted every year and maybe 50 have decent NHL careers, the other 75% probably fit into the category of "peaking at 20". As with any discussion on prospects, you're looking for the exception to the rule, most prospects fail to grow significantly.
that's a fair distinction. those studies are focused on those that make the nhl, and of that subset of players, what is their typical peak age.
 

hairylikebear

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gotchya. in theory, that should be accounted for in the analysis as injury is spread out, and trial periods are both ubiquitous and short relative to a career.
I've been communicating poorly, because Ghost of Kyiv's idea was part of my reasoning and I just didn't mention it.

But anyway, those specifics were just examples. There can be cases where stats grow but the player doesn't. Damiani is an example of this but in the opposite, his stats shrunk but he didn't get worse. He stagnated for 2-3 years because of injury setback or whatever reasons and that's enough time to get left in the dust. He was PPG because the team was investing into him, and they were doing it more because of potential than ability, at least IMO.

Anyway my TLDR point is I that while I think what you were saying is valid and accurate, it doesn't necessarily disprove what Piqued was saying.
 

eartotheground

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I've been communicating poorly, because Ghost of Kyiv's idea was part of my reasoning and I just didn't mention it.

But anyway, those specifics were just examples. There can be cases where stats grow but the player doesn't. Damiani is an example of this but in the opposite, his stats shrunk but he didn't get worse. He stagnated for 2-3 years because of injury setback or whatever reasons and that's enough time to get left in the dust. He was PPG because the team was investing into him, and they were doing it more because of potential than ability, at least IMO.

Anyway my TLDR point is I that while I think what you were saying is valid and accurate, it doesn't necessarily disprove what Piqued was saying.
ahh, ok. so the example of production per 60 stays constant as ice time varies? yeah, i agree that can def be the case in some circumstances.

and agree, from both perspective's, both can be true. probably also fair to say that by age 20 you usually know if a player has an nhl future.
 

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