Cup Winner: BOS/TBL/WSH/PIT vs. the Field

[oconnor9sean]

This is the right answer I think.

If you go by some of the prediction sites, your odds are:

Money Puck: BOS/TBL/WSH/PIT - 26.9%
Ineffective Math: BOS/TBL/WSH/PIT - roughly 28%

This bet passes the eye test and the numbers test.

 

[BlueDream]

Blues would beat all of those teams except for Washington maybe.

 

[Trap Jesus]

If you go by some of the prediction sites, your odds are:

Money Puck: BOS/TBL/WSH/PIT - 26.9%
Ineffective Math: BOS/TBL/WSH/PIT - roughly 28%

This bet passes the eye test and the numbers test.

The odds of the 4 go up when you consider they'd all have to go through each other to get there. It's like if you can only bet on 2 teams to advance to the second round and your goal is to just get one team there, you'd bet on 2 teams that play each other. It's not a guarantee when it's BOS/TBL/WSH/PIT, but it's the same strategy.

 

[oconnor9sean]

The odds of the 4 go up when you consider they'd all have to go through each other to get there. It's like if you can only bet on 2 teams to advance to the second round and your goal is to just get one team there, you'd bet on 2 teams that play each other. It's not a guarantee when it's BOS/TBL/WSH/PIT, but it's the same strategy.

Right but you're assuming all four win their first-round series.

If any team hypothetically has close to a 50/50 shot at winning the Stanley Cup Final just by getting there, then taking four teams from the same conference means you could only have close to a 50/50 shot at the highest point. One of the four losing to a team not in the four cuts into your odds.

The 28-30% says you have about 56-60% chance that one of those four teams wins the Eastern Conference, and then that team would have close to a 50/50 shot to win the SCF if they got there.

 

[Trap Jesus]

Right but you're assuming all four win their first-round series.

If any team hypothetically has close to a 50/50 shot at winning the Stanley Cup Final just by getting there, then taking four teams from the same conference means you could only have close to a 50/50 shot at the highest point. One of the four losing to a team not in the four cuts into your odds.

The 28-30% comes from assuming you have a 60% chance of one of those four winning the East, then having a 50/50 shot in the SCF.

It's not a 50/50 thing though. Yes, things like Columbus vs. Tampa happen, but I don't think the odds are very good that all 4 of those top teams lay an egg and do nothing in the playoffs. One of them will very likely go on a run to make it to the Cup Final.

 

[oconnor9sean]

It's not a 50/50 thing though. Yes, things like Columbus vs. Tampa happen, but I don't think the odds are very good that all 4 of those top teams lay an egg and do nothing in the playoffs. One of them will very likely go on a run to make it to the Cup Final.

They're odds for a reason. Every time one of them loses the odds shorten, even if it's to each other.

Money Puck odds to make 2nd round:

WSH 58.8%
BOS 53%
TB 48.4%
PIT 41.5%

You only have a 6% chance, right now, that all four of those teams make the 2nd round.

Those odds will increase as their playoff magic numbers shrinks (it's taking into account the fact that any of them could have a slide and miss the playoffs or not finish top 2, etc) but if we're making a logical bet, and not just picking which four teams are the best in the East, its a very wise decision to take the field.

 

[Trap Jesus]

They're odds for a reason. Every time one of them loses the odds shorten, even if it's to each other.

Money Puck odds to make 2nd round:

WSH 58.8%
BOS 53%
TB 48.4%
PIT 41.5%

You only have a 6% chance, right now, that all four of those teams make the 2nd round.

Those odds will increase as their playoff magic numbers shrinks (it's taking into account the fact that any of them could have a slide and miss the playoffs or not finish top 2, etc) but if we're making a logical bet, and not just picking which four teams are the best in the East, its a very wise decision to take the field.

I'm not looking at it like that at all. If you give me 4 teams that are much better than the other 4 teams in the Conference on paper, I'm betting on one of them to defy their 58% and subsequently lower odds each round. You have 4/8 teams in the conference, even with no consideration given to how good they are it would be 50/50 to pick a finalist.

 

[tony d]

Option 1- Pittsburgh

 

[oconnor9sean]

I'm not looking at it like that at all. If you give me 4 teams that are much better than the other 4 teams in the Conference on paper, I'm betting on one of them to defy their 58% and subsequently lower odds each round. You have 4/8 teams in the conference, even with no consideration given to how good they are it would be 50/50 to pick a finalist.

With no consideration of how good they are, you would have a 50% chance of picking a finalist, or a 100% chance of picking a finalist if you take the field.

 

[KoozNetsOff 92]

Obviously upsets can happen but I think consensus right now is that the 2nd round of the east playoffs will be bruins/Tampa and caps/pens. Assuming that happens, 1 of those teams is then guaranteed to make the SCF. The other east teams aren't good enough. Toronto has no D and goaltending isn't great. Florida has no experience and bob is a playoff choker (no 1 series doesn't change his career history). NYI has no forwards. Canes aren't sneaking up on anyone this year and they don't have goaltending either. CBJ no. The only west team that has a chance vs the "big 4" of the east is STL but they have to win 3 series just to make the SCF.

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

Obviously upsets can happen but I think consensus right now is that the 2nd round of the east playoffs will be bruins/Tampa and caps/pens. Assuming that happens, 1 of those teams is then guaranteed to make the SCF. The other east teams aren't good enough. Toronto has no D and goaltending isn't great. Florida has no experience and bob is a playoff choker (no 1 series doesn't change his career history). NYI has no forwards. Canes aren't sneaking up on anyone this year and they don't have goaltending either. CBJ no. The only west team that has a chance vs the "big 4" of the east is STL but they have to win 3 series just to make the SCF.

Mostly agree. Even with all the crazy upsets last year Boston came out of the east. So yes upsets happen but i'd say there's a 95+% chance one of those 4 teams will be representing the east. And St. Louis is the only team in the west that can beat one of Boston/Tampa/Washington/Pittsburgh imo.

 

[Erik Alfredsson]

I still think it'll be one of Boston or Washington. Maybe Pittsburgh.

 

[rumrokh]

Blues would beat all of those teams except for Washington maybe.

I think Pittsburgh matches up well against the Blues. I don't know how likely it is that they make the finals, but, as of right now, they're on the short list of teams I'd rather not face.

 

[Mrfenn92]

I'll take the field.

 

[The Macho King]

Obviously upsets can happen but I think consensus right now is that the 2nd round of the east playoffs will be bruins/Tampa and caps/pens. Assuming that happens, 1 of those teams is then guaranteed to make the SCF. The other east teams aren't good enough. Toronto has no D and goaltending isn't great. Florida has no experience and bob is a playoff choker (no 1 series doesn't change his career history). NYI has no forwards. Canes aren't sneaking up on anyone this year and they don't have goaltending either. CBJ no. The only west team that has a chance vs the "big 4" of the east is STL but they have to win 3 series just to make the SCF.

While those are the 4 favorites, I dont think you can say any hockey series nowadays is more than a 60/40 proposition.

You're a Caps fan. I'm a Lightning fan. We should both know this in the core of our souls.

 

[Iceman]

Well, those 4 teams have to beat out each other so it might be safer to pick the west + the four other teams from the east because you know you have at least 1 team in the finals.

 

[Neutral Hockey Fan]

Tough call. As Boston and Tampa will be likely playing each other in the second round (although Tampa or Boston vs Florida in the first round could be a great series).

I still very much like St Louis and Colorado in the west as well.

I might go field, simply because whoever comes out of the west could be playing a battered eastern team.