News Article: Cup Contenders (and why the Pens aren't one)

[cygnus47]

http://www.silversevensens.com/2014/3/25/5545016/the-anatomy-of-a-cup-contender

So here's an article quantifying the various things that us 'doubters' have observed about this years Penguins and why it's unlikely we go far (if anywhere) in the playoffs.

Namely:
1) We have very weak possession numbers in the second half of the season (only Buf, Wash and Toronto are worse.)
2) The passive PK gives us the 26th ranked shorthanded possession numbers, our success is highly skewed by our league best SHS%, which is clearly an anomaly from our norm. It WILL drop in the POs.

I would also add, our 5 on 5 scoring is average.

Discuss!

Click to read more...

 

[canadianguy77]

Who needs numbers/stats when you've seen them play?

 

[ObsessedCreative*]

Who needs numbers/stats when you've seen them play?

Yeah I have eyes and have watched them, plus the fact that I've seen this same exact joke of a show for 4-5 years now.

I know how it ends.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

Damn it.

I was so hopeful about these playoffs and you took it all away.

 

[MissionCanucksFan]

Shoulda upped the ante for Kesler. Sure could use him now with Malkin down.

 

[Jacques Trap*]

A defence core decimated by injury is the biggest reason for me.

 

[Shrimper]

I think everyone knows that at most we'll get past the first round.

 

[Cardboard Orpik]

Yeah, we're backing into the playoffs pretty hard. It's not going to be pretty.

 

[Whakahere]

A defence core decimated by injury is the biggest reason for me.

That would have been an issue if they didn't play better when they had more players out of the lineup than they do now that are in.

 

[MrBurghundy]

A defence core decimated by injury is the biggest reason for me.

If Letang was out there, things would probably be even more frustrating.

 

[Marns]

Shoulda upped the ante for Kesler. Sure could use him now with Malkin down.

Wouldn't have made a difference, really. We went all in at the deadline last year and the sh** still shone through.

 

[wgknestrick]

I'm glad the media is only 1-2 months behind some of the more intelligent posters here in their "speculations".

This team is terrible and would not make the playoffs if the season was longer. I don't think most people here realize how bad the Penguins have been playing since December and (especially) after the Olympic break.

Just look at their recent Fenwick rolling 10 game average. We were an elite team (55-60%%) in Oct/Nov, then started to slide in Dec. We are one of the worst teams in the league (not just among playoff teams) now (44%).

We will be lucky to win a single playoff game with this terrible shot differential and our bad starting goaltender (#21 out of 26 qualifiers at 5v5). MAF is not a goalie who will ever win out when you are allowing more shots than you take. You have to hope you get matched up against one of the 5 starting goaltenders that have a lower 5v5 SV% than he does. Too bad, not a single one is on a playoff team. Knowing that, we have to pray the other goaltender has a meltdown (and our does not). We all know our chances of that happening, don't we?

Here's the game by game chart. Notice the trend? Hell, the Pens only averaged a Fenwick of around 25% against the Flyers (over 2 games)! We were giving up 3 shot attempts to every 1 we took.

The only teams we were recently able to get over 50% on were Sabres (2x), Senators, Sharks(don't know how), Caps, Stars, and Red Wings (the totally depleted Wings). Not exactly a list of scary teams there (outside of the Sharks).

 

[wolffy66]

I'm glad the media is only 1-2 months behind some of the more intelligent posters here in their "speculations".

This team is terrible and would not make the playoffs if the season was longer. I don't think most people here realize how bad the Penguins have been playing since December and (especially) after the Olympic break.

Just look at their recent Fenwick rolling 10 game average. We were an elite team (55-60%%) in Oct/Nov, then started to slide in Dec. We are one of the worst teams in the league (not just among playoff teams) now (44%).

We will be lucky to win a single playoff game with this terrible shot differential and our bad starting goaltender (#21 out of 26 qualifiers at 5v5). MAF is not a goalie who will ever win out when you are allowing more shots than you take. You have to hope you get matched up against one of the 5 starting goaltenders that have a lower 5v5 SV% than he does. Too bad, not a single one is on a playoff team. Knowing that, we have to pray the other goaltender has a meltdown (and our does not). We all know our chances of that happening, don't we?

Here's the game by game chart. Notice the trend? Hell, the Pens only averaged a Fenwick of around 25% against the Flyers (over 2 games)! We were giving up 3 shot attempts to every 1 we took.

The only teams we were recently able to get over 50% on were Sabres (2x), Senators, Sharks(don't know how), Caps, Stars, and Red Wings (the totally depleted Wings). Not exactly a list of scary teams there (outside of the Sharks).

What was happening in Oct/Nov that isn't happening now? Is it the injuries to D? Or just crappy overall play from most everyone.

 

[Fire Shero*]

What else does Fleury need to do in order to convince Shero he is not a good playoff goalie?

It's amazing this guy is still in the NHL and on our team. Even for a complete idiot like Shero, this is unbelievable.

 

[Fleury3434*]

Pens are not losing games lately because of goaltending...they are losing games taking dumb penalties, defense is god aweful right now, we have a lot of injuries currently, and the main thing is our team needs to play with more heart and desperation...no goalie is gonna help this team, it's something mentally on the inside they need to work out soon

 

[dueling mullets]

What was happening in Oct/Nov that isn't happening now? Is it the injuries to D? Or just crappy overall play from most everyone.

Oct/Nov was when Orpik, Scuderi, and Glass were hurt. The call ups played with speed and actually possessed the puck.

 

[SUBdrewgANS]

hope we get swept.

I wont root for that, but I also wont be heart broken if it happens.

 

[billybudd]

Worst possible outcome for this team's future would be to play the Capitals in the first round, because the Penguins would smoke them big time.

In a series against any other playoff or bubble team in the East and we're very likely out in 5 or earlier.

 

[TyroneBiggums]

Doesn't that link up with the injuries to Martin and Letang and then Martin again(and even Dupuis, now that I'm looking at it)?

Hmm, the solution should be to play more undersized AHL players that have one redeeming quality.

 

[wgknestrick]

Doesn't that link up with the injuries to Martin and Letang and then Martin again(and even Dupuis, now that I'm looking at it)?

Hmm, the solution should be to play more undersized AHL players that have one redeeming quality.

-Duppers was the biggest, single loss IMO. He's still a very, very good wing in the NHL. Pens are thin at that position so it taxed the entire team to replace him.
-Martin's loss was felt recently.
-We also had Orpik and Scuderi injuries (additions by subtractions)
-We picked up Pyatt for some reason. He is not a + possession player.
-Letang hasn't been much of a "loss" this year. He was not playing well this year compared to his previous 2 year averages.

It is a combination of many different factors and primarily (at the so called, helm) is a coach who is oblivious to this. He could have a big impact by icing the best players with regards to FF% or Corsi %.

We should have pulled a SJS (of last year) and traded our aging D men at the deadline, allowing our younger (and demonstratingly better) D men an opportunity to play while picking up free assets to help areas of weakness.

 

[mikethelegacy]

I think most of us, myself included, are torn on being supportive, because we want to see our team win no matter what, and hoping we just fall flat on our face so we can get some new management in there who actually know what they are doing.

Coaches should coach and GM's should manage. DB and Shero haven't been doing much of either recently.

Gotta wonder what's going through Mario's head and how much longer he can "not get involved in team matters"...

Pens are not losing games lately because of goaltending...they are losing games taking dumb penalties, defense is god aweful right now, we have a lot of injuries currently, and the main thing is our team needs to play with more heart and desperation...no goalie is gonna help this team, it's something mentally on the inside they need to work out soon

I agree with you on that. Come playoff time we are really gonna see if that sports Psychologist helped Fluery, because right now he is playing better than any current memory I have in my mind. That said, it IS the regular season...

 

[TyroneBiggums]

-Duppers was the biggest, single loss IMO. He's still a very, very good wing in the NHL. Pens are thin at that position so it taxed the entire team to replace him.
-Martin's loss was felt recently.
-We also had Orpik and Scuderi injuries (additions by subtractions)
-We picked up Pyatt for some reason. He is not a + possession player.
-Letang hasn't been much of a "loss" this year. He was not playing well this year compared to his previous 2 year averages.

It is a combination of many different factors and primarily (at the so called, helm) is a coach who is oblivious to this. He could have a big impact by icing the best players with regards to FF% or Corsi %.

We should have pulled a SJS (of last year) and traded our aging D men at the deadline, allowing our younger (and demonstratingly better) D men an opportunity to play while picking up free assets to help areas of weakness.

-Martin and Letang hurt a lot more than that, I think. As you lose a lot of your ability to break out of the zone, as well as some puck possession abilities.

-I doubt Bylsma is oblivious, it may just be that he, a well as the professional scouts of a profesional sports franchise happen to disagree with a small subsection of the fanbase about the "demonstratingly" better Young D-men. Unless the prospects are playing pro-hockey somewhere at the same level as the NHL, then only Olli Maatta is(truly) proven to be better. It seems like people like to ignore when Despres does things like softly pass it to his partner for it to be picked off and lead to a partial break-away(though, I'm sure if Orpik did it, then we'd have like 5 threads go on for 2 days about it), some may be NHL ready, but aren't better. Or they would be with the big club.

The Pens need to get healthy, and get back to how they were playing early in the season.

 

[wgknestrick]

You guys can "support" all you want, but the Pens are well beyond that at this point. Just compare where we stand up against BOS or CHI....... it is a lost cause (even if we had an elite goaltender like Rask). Remember we need MAF to greatly outplay the opposing goaltender for us to even have a chance.. We will be lucky to win 2 games this postseason unless something big changes.

 

[Mo Wanchuk]

Shoulda upped the ante for Kesler. Sure could use him now with Malkin down.

That wouldn't have made one bit of difference. The problems run far deeper than acquiring Kesler. Besides isn't he hurt also?

 

[Beauner]

Why do we keep analyzing these things? We know we suck, what's the point of beating a dead horse?