HarvHQC
Registered User
- Aug 12, 2020
- 20
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...which means that, after using extremely rudimentary Excel voodoo to aggregate some decently-recent prospect rankings from Dobber, The Hockey News, Corey Pronman, Scott Wheeler, Last Word, The Draft Analyst, DraftPro, Bob McKenzie, and Josh Bell, Larry Fisher, and Andrew Forbes from The Hockey Writers, I need to get all of the wrong conclusions out of my own head so that I can receive the right conclusions from all of you.The best way to get the right answer on the Internet is not to ask a question, it's to post the wrong answer.
I'm brand new to following the NHL Draft, and I've only been watching hockey with any seriousness for the past two seasons after joining a workplace fantasy league. (Hence the inclusion of Dobber!) But I am a converted NFL Draft aficionado, a burned-out former sportswriter from Bleacher Report's humble beginnings as a shameless content farm, and an English teacher with a few free vacation days left to put the finishing touches on what I'm sure is a travesty of a still-too-soon mock draft...
Using system rankings from Dobber and Pronman (including his newest evaluations, where possible) and reading the team-specific forums here, I tried to get a feel for teams' needs. I also wanted to better understand how active GMs had used their first round picks over the past few years -- and how much movement does or doesn't happen in a typical first round -- so I charted how often they had dealt their first-rounders going back to 2015. As a result, I did cautiously project a few trades.
If I completely botched your team's pick and/or several others, let me have it! (If I mangled one or more positional designations, direct all complaints to Central Scouting.)
1. N.Y. Rangers - LW Alexis Lafreniere [The face on future trading card boxes?]
2. Los Angeles - C Quinton Byfield [The center-rich get center-richer.]
The trade value discussion about what the Kings could offer to move up for Lafreniere is really compelling, and they do seem extremely deep at center already, but two points held me back from projecting anything other than this bog-standard pair of picks: (1) New York's other first-rounder looks to be a decent spot for finding one of several high-ceiling centers in this draft, and (2) to justify trading up, Los Angeles would need to decide that Lafreniere playing on Alex Turcotte's wing is not only better than Turcotte-Byfield, but also better by the value of whatever players and picks they'd be giving up.
Couldn't find a scenario where that price wasn't prohibitively steep, so here we are.
3. Ottawa (f. SJ) - LW Tim Stutzle [Rounds out the consensus three best players available.]
4. Detroit - LW Lucas Raymond [Completes a future Rasmussen-Zadina second line?]
5. Ottawa - D Jamie Drysdale [I am told his right-handedness is a distinguishing trait here.]
6. Anaheim - C Marco Rossi [BPA. They're thin behind Terry at RW, though. Holtz instead?]
7. New Jersey - RW Alexander Holtz [Value meets system need. If he's gone, Sanderson?]
8. Buffalo - C Cole Perfetti [Last of the eight prospects whose ADP was seventh or earlier.]
Combining and averaging the different sets of rankings isn't an expert-level insight in itself, for sure -- but the resulting numbers did create some interesting tier splits, both overall and within positions. I don't know that I've sorted them correctly here, but the top eight players were above a distinct cutoff line from the rest of this year's class; from what I've read, the only potentially-controversial omission from that set would be Jake Sanderson...
9. Minnesota - D Jake Sanderson [Too far of a drop for him? Maybe Perfetti drops instead.]
10. Winnipeg - C Anton Lundell [If this is Quinn or Jarvis, question Laine's future in WPG?]
11. Nashville - RW Jack Quinn [Hedge against Tolvanen not hitting his ceiling? Askarov spot?]
12. Toronto (f. FLA) - C Seth Jarvis [A penny-pinching replacement in Kapanen's roles?]
13. Carolina (f. TOR) - G Yaroslav Askarov [Everyone loves him. No one seems to want him.]
14. Edmonton - C Dylan Holloway [Positional flexibility in the McDavid-Draisaitl line blender.]
15. Florida (f. PIT via TOR) - D Kaiden Guhle [A clean-cut mock trade. Too good to be true?]
As of yesterday, I had projected a different trade in this mock: Winnipeg, Florida, and Pittsburgh would end up shuffling around. I bounced between Lundell and Quinn for the Penguins, who would want a more NHL-ready forward than the prospects they'd have available at their end of the lottery picks; Winnipeg would take whoever remained among Lundell, Quinn, and Jarvis, and Florida would pick Guhle. Each team had enough ammunition to satisfy your preferred draft pick trade value chart.
Today's Kasperi Kapanen trade means that (1) the "NHL-ready" read wasn't totally off-base -- and probably obvious -- and (2) Kevin Cheveldayoff might not get to join in the simulated fun. But Kyle Dubas has now made at least one first-round deal in each of his drafts, and it doesn't seem like a stretch to say that he's not done with this year's moves. If the goal is to use this pick for a cap-friendly bargain on an ELC, the Leafs might still have some incentive to move up.
16. Montreal - LW Rodion Amirov [Bergevin stays put, dresses impeccably, addresses a need.]
17. Chicago - C Dawson Mercer [This was an ADP toss-up with Zary, so I deferred to Pronman.]
18. New Jersey (f. ARI) - RW Noel Gunler [Could see Schneider here to cut off any trades.]
19. Calgary - C Connor Zary [Best forward available for a system with several touted D-men.]
20. New Jersey (f. VAN via TB) - D Braden Schneider [Justifies passing on Sanderson?]
21. St. Louis (f. CBJ) - C Mavrik Bourque [Last in a pack of consensus first-round centers.]
Out of the 21 active general managers who've traded at least one first round pick at some point over the past five-plus years, Doug Armstrong seemed to be the most consistently active. I counted eight first round trades for the Blues (including two draft-day deals) from 2015 onward -- with no years off! -- which made leaving their pick alone seem less likely than finding a deal.
This trade would break Jarmo Kekalainen's pattern of only moving the Blue Jackets' pick every other draft year, but it might also allow Columbus to recoup some picks in a draft where they otherwise aren't slotted to pick again until the fourth round.
22. Ottawa (f. NYI) - RW Jacob Perreault [One of the last consensus first-rounders...]
23. Dallas - RW John-Jason Peterka [...and the other. Fits a system need for the Stars.]
24. N.Y. Rangers (f. CAR) - C Jan Mysak [Loaded system lets them swing for the fences.]
25. Philadelphia - C Hendrix Lapierre [Like Mysak, a high-risk, high-reward pick.]
26. Washington - LW Lukas Reichel [A winger to pair with McMichael?]
27. Columbus (f. STL) - RW Tyson Foerster [A playmaker for a great forechecking team?]
28. Vegas - C Brendan Brisson [Laser-focused draft history of early centers and defenders.]
29. San Jose (f. TB) - C Thomas Bordeleau [Could be system depth with Chmelevski.]
30. Colorado - D Justin Barron [Right-handedness seems relevant. Byram's partner?]
31. Anaheim (f. BOS) - D William Wallinder [Rossi and Wallinder or Sanderson and...who?]
If possible, I wanted to find a way for the top 31 prospects in the aggregated rankings to fit the 31 picks in this first attempt at a mock draft. These final 10 picks seem to be at least plausible, but opinions on this draft class diverged pretty strongly beyond the top 20-25 prospects -- and it only takes one team to value Nybeck, Khusnutdinov, Grans, etc. near enough to their pick to make the call...
So, how'd I do?
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