Crosby's numbers

[daver]

IMO, after his 2nd year, Crosby was closer to Wayne and Mario than any other player in the last 40 years. He was a generational prospect in the CHL where he dominated in scoring as 16 and 17 year old. In his first year in the NHL he finished higher in scoring as an 18 year old than anyone else except Wayne and won in his 2nd year, matching Wayne in this feat.

Is anyone surprised he hasn't put up bigger #'s? Wayne and Mario took major jumps in PPG from their 1st and 2nd years. I know Crosby could have put up a 125 - 130 point season if not for injuries but that still would have been below the 140-150 that would have been expected if he followed the same trend as Wayne and Mario.

Were his first two years a mirage?

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[quoipourquoi]

IMO, after his 2nd year, Crosby was closer to Wayne and Mario than any other player in the last 40 years. He was a generational prospect in the CHL where he dominated in scoring as 16 and 17 year old. In his first year in the NHL he finished higher in scoring as an 18 year old than anyone else except Wayne and won in his 2nd year, matching Wayne in this feat.

Is anyone surprised he hasn't put up bigger #'s? Wayne and Mario took major jumps in PPG from their 1st and 2nd years. I know Crosby could have put up a 125 - 130 point season if not for injuries but that still would have been below the 140-150 that would have been expected if he followed the same trend as Wayne and Mario.

Were his first two years a mirage?

Because of the way scoring levels have dropped since 2006-07, it would be unrealistic for a 120-point player to continue to improve his raw totals by 20-30 points. It's like fighting against a current; merely replicating 120 points in the 2014 version of the NHL would be a noticeable improvement (just as it would for a 1995-96 star to replicate his point totals in 1996-97).

2010-11 was probably the best of Crosby that we will see. And while the season was cut short, he had become a much more dangerous player than he was in 2006-07, particularly as an even-strength performer.

 

[SidGenoMario]

2010-11 Crosby was MILES (or kilometers) better than 2006-07 Sid. The only thing that's stopping his potential is injury.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Because of the way scoring levels have dropped since 2006-07, it would be unrealistic for a 120-point player to continue to improve his raw totals by 20-30 points. It's like fighting against a current; merely replicating 120 points in the 2014 version of the NHL would be a noticeable improvement (just as it would for a 1995-96 star to replicate his point totals in 1996-97).

2010-11 was probably the best of Crosby that we will see. And while the season was cut short, he had become a much more dangerous player than he was in 2006-07, particularly as an even-strength performer.

Unless he was a Mario Lemieux level talent (which Crosby is not).

I don't know whether the high ankle sprain stunted his progress or he never had it in him to begin with, but Crosby just never took that next big step. Though I do agree that the healthy 2010-11 version of him was a better all-round player than the 2006-07 version

 

[ResilientBeast]

IMO, after his 2nd year, Crosby was closer to Wayne and Mario than any other player in the last 40 years. He was a generational prospect in the CHL where he dominated in scoring as 16 and 17 year old. In his first year in the NHL he finished higher in scoring as an 18 year old than anyone else except Wayne and won in his 2nd year, matching Wayne in this feat.

Is anyone surprised he hasn't put up bigger #'s? Wayne and Mario took major jumps in PPG from their 1st and 2nd years. I know Crosby could have put up a 125 - 130 point season if not for injuries but that still would have been below the 140-150 that would have been expected if he followed the same trend as Wayne and Mario.

Were his first two years a mirage?

Jagr I still think is closer.

 

[LeBlondeDemon10]

I think there are a number of things affecting Crosby's numbers path. One, it's a defense first league. Two, there is more of a play not to lose than play to win attitude. Three, with 30 teams you will get numerous checking players to fill roster spots increasing the defense oriented strategy of coaches. Four, the game is much tighter now than it was in 99 and 66's time; less time and space. Five, goaltending equipment. Six, as talented as Crosby is he is no 99 or 66. This became very evident to me at Sochi. He played very well, but his numbers do not reflect a dominant player, but merely a very good, solid two way player.

 

[daver]

I think there are a number of things affecting Crosby's numbers path. One, it's a defense first league. Two, there is more of a play not to lose than play to win attitude. Three, with 30 teams you will get numerous checking players to fill roster spots increasing the defense oriented strategy of coaches. Four, the game is much tighter now than it was in 99 and 66's time; less time and space. Five, goaltending equipment. Six, as talented as Crosby is he is no 99 or 66. This became very evident to me at Sochi. He played very well, but his numbers do not reflect a dominant player, but merely a very good, solid two way player.

This is my question though, thru to his 2nd year, his #'s compared to his peers were, in a relative sense, close to Wayne and Mario. Why didn't he have the same jump in his #'s that those two had?

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

This is my question though, thru to his 2nd year, his #'s compared to his peers were, in a relative sense, close to Wayne and Mario. Why didn't he have the same jump in his #'s that those two had?

Wayne Gretzky tied for the Art Ross in his rookie season and broke the record for most points in a season in his sophmore year, so no, Crosby was not close to Wayne for his first 2 years.

Young Lemieux was great but not the Lemieux we remember until his 4th season (87-88), so maybe playing with Wayne during the Canada Cup did something to him? I don't know.

Other players came out of the gate on fire (Bossy, Ovechkin) and didn't end up Lemieux/Gretzky level either.

I really think the high ankle sprain did hinder Crosby's early development though

 

[blogofmike]

2010-11 Crosby was MILES (or kilometers) better than 2006-07 Sid. The only thing that's stopping his potential is injury.

Mostly this. Crosby beat his 2007 PPG in each year from 2011-13. Thing is he played 99 games over three years, missing a huge chunk of even the lockout season.

While it's still a big "if" to assume that even a player of Crosby's calibre will maintain that pace for a full season, that would put him around 7-13 points ahead of 07 Crosby through 79 games.

Going by adjusted points, Prime Gretzky starts blowing away early Gretzky after 1981 in spite of a record setting 164 point season. Lemieux takes three years, but Prime Lemieux gears up well above early Lemieux levels too.

 

[Say Hey Kid]

1. Wayne Gretzky* 1.921
2. Mario Lemieux* 1.883
3. Mike Bossy* 1.497
4. Sidney Crosby 1.407
5. Bobby Orr* 1.393

Crosby is great. I don't think it's an insult to him that if I only needed PPG or a PP I would take him 5th in this group. I think this is a very non-controversial post, but I guess we'll see.

 

[ForsbergForever]

Unless he was a Mario Lemieux level talent (which Crosby is not).

I don't know whether the high ankle sprain stunted his progress or he never had it in him to begin with, but Crosby just never took that next big step. Though I do agree that the healthy 2010-11 version of him was a better all-round player than the 2006-07 version

For what its worth, Crosby "only" had 63 points in 46 gp (1.36 ppg) before the ankle injury so he was well off his pace from the previous season healthy. I think 2010-11, and for that matter the following two seasons is really were the debate lies in terms of him taking his game to an all-time elite level. Unfortunately we'll never know what could have been...

 

[markrander87]

I feel Sid gets underrated around these parts. Sure he not on 99 or 66 level, but (to me) he is clear cut the best player in the World right now. Lets hope he can avoid any further serious injuries and can reach his ceiling.

That being said, what do people think his ceiling is? Top 25 player of all time? Top 10? I really have no idea.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

I feel Sid gets underrated around these parts. Sure he not on 99 or 66 level, but (to me) he is clear cut the best player in the World right now. Lets hope he can avoid any further serious injuries and can reach his ceiling.

That being said, what do people think his ceiling is? Top 25 player of all time? Top 10? I really have no idea.

I said this in another thread basically:

I think his ceiling is Jean Beliveau level - but he really needs to stay healthy AND pick it up in the playoffs after several poor playoffs in a row.

If he keeps doing what he's doing without getting injured again (no guarantee), he hits Mikita or Morenz level.

 

[LeBlondeDemon10]

This is my question though, thru to his 2nd year, his #'s compared to his peers were, in a relative sense, close to Wayne and Mario. Why didn't he have the same jump in his #'s that those two had?

TheDevilMadeMe makes a good point in comparing the numbers. I think the similarity between Crosby and 99 is maturity. They were both NHL ready by the time they got to the NHL. So was Lemieux, but it took him a couple of years to really blossom. Lemieux's transition from the QMJHL to the NHL might be comparable to a European coming to North America. 66 had to learn a whole new language, culture and was particularly shy if I recall. I don't recall if there were any French players on the Pens in 1984, but the support of players coming from other cultures has really progressed since then.

 

[MAJackson]

I don't recall if there were any French players on the Pens in 1984, but the support of players coming from other cultures has really progressed since then.

The only French-Canadians I remember on those Pens teams early in Lemieux' career were goalies like Herron and Meloche, but you're right, teams have made tremendous strides in the past 30 years in helping international players adapt.

 

[Killion]

TheDevilMadeMe makes a good point in comparing the numbers. I think the similarity between Crosby and 99 is maturity. They were both NHL ready by the time they got to the NHL. So was Lemieux, but it took him a couple of years to really blossom. Lemieux's transition from the QMJHL to the NHL might be comparable to a European coming to North America. 66 had to learn a whole new language, culture and was particularly shy if I recall. I don't recall if there were any French players on the Pens in 1984, but the support of players coming from other cultures has really progressed since then.

Yes its interesting.... When Jean Beliveau, the most heralded francophone of his era continued to play in the Quebec League with the Aces while Montrealers' & the Habs were clamoring for his services... the papers speculating that he was up there playing Senior in the Q because he was making more than he would in Montreal... according to Beliveau himself some years later when asked about it replied that he didnt feel "ready" to make the jump to Big City Life in Montreal. He'd grown up in a large & close family in Trois Rivieres & Victoriaville (as was Gilbert Perrault, couple of others), never signed a 'C' Form ('B' Form yes) and took his time about things..... Doug Harvey same. Was an all-round excellent athlete. Football (won a Grey Cup) & Baseball (minor-pro with Ottawa). There just wasnt the rush to play in the NHL the way theres been since Expansion, the Drafts. Entirely different situations, headspaces. Character development more important than trying to maximize earnings & income at a young age. Check out all of your options as Harvey did or as Beliveau did in not being enamored with Big City Lights, Bigger Stage. Matter of maturity.

 

[Plural]

I don't see how Crosby was particularly close to Wayne in terms of offensive numbers in his first two years.

Gretzky tied the league in scoring in his first year and was 1st in PPG with 1.73. His closest competition was Dionne with 1.71 and Lafleur with 1.69.

Crosby in his first year was 6th in both, PPG and league scoring. His PPG was 1.26 and his competition was, Thornton with 1.54, Jagr 1.50, Alfredsson 1.34, Spezza 1.32 and Ovechkin 1.31.

In Gretzky's 2nd year he re-wrote the history books and set the all-time point record with 164. Obviously Gretzky led the league in both PPG and league scoring. Gretzky was 29 points ahead of the competition and his PPG was in own class. Gretzky 2.05, Dionne 1.69, Nilsson 1.64, Simmer 1.62

In Crosby's 2nd year he led the league in scoring with 120 points. He was 6 points ahead of the competition, Thornton. Crosby had PPG of 1.52, Thornton 1.39, Iginla 1.34, Lecavalier 1.32, Spezza 1.30

Crosby had amazing and historically good start to his career, but I don't see how he was particularly close to Gretzky in terms of offensive production.

As we know, after two seasons Gretzky took off and never looked back. Crosby's production regressed a bit for few years and after that he faced health issues. In terms of offensive production Gretzky is the greatest of all-time and Crosby doesn't really stack up against him. In Crosby's 3rd, 4th and 5th season he wasn't the best offensive player in the world. Gretzky on the other hand was out of this world and there was nobody who could compete against him.

 

[Plural]

IMO, after his 2nd year, Crosby was closer to Wayne and Mario than any other player in the last 40 years. He was a generational prospect in the CHL where he dominated in scoring as 16 and 17 year old. In his first year in the NHL he finished higher in scoring as an 18 year old than anyone else except Wayne and won in his 2nd year, matching Wayne in this feat.

Is anyone surprised he hasn't put up bigger #'s? Wayne and Mario took major jumps in PPG from their 1st and 2nd years. I know Crosby could have put up a 125 - 130 point season if not for injuries but that still would have been below the 140-150 that would have been expected if he followed the same trend as Wayne and Mario.

Were his first two years a mirage?

If you are talking about his 3rd, 4th or 5th seasons, then no. He was not on pace for those kind of numbers and he had healthy seasons in those years and he clearly was not going to touch 125-130.

 

[Say Hey Kid]

I said this in another thread basically: I think his ceiling is Jean Beliveau level - but he really needs to stay healthy AND pick it up in the playoffs after several poor playoffs in a row. If he keeps doing what he's doing without getting injured again (no guarantee), he hits Mikita or Morenz level.

Even if everything goes perfectly, I think it's impossible he's going to go from the 22nd best center ever to one of the top 15 players ever.

 

[Plural]

Even if everything goes perfectly, I think it's impossible he's going to go from the 22nd best center ever to one of the top 15 players ever.

His career is still very young. He has a chance to put together 5-7 elite years. Without injuries that could just be enough to consider him as high as Beliveau. I personally don't think he will be able to do that. But it is not impossible.

 

[Say Hey Kid]

His career is still very young. He has a chance to put together 5-7 elite years. Without injuries that could just be enough to consider him as high as Beliveau. I personally don't think he will be able to do that. But it is not impossible.

I think it is. Beliveau was just ranked the #3 center, he was ranked the #7 player & the #8 player by this board, and I've seen well respected HoH posters rank him #6 ever behind only The Big 4 and Harvey. I think it's impossible he'll ever be top 8 like Beliveau. I'm trying to expand and explain my position, not post again for the sake of it. Have a nice day.

 

[Plural]

I think it is. Beliveau was just ranked the #3 center, he was ranked the #7 player & the #8 player by this board, and I've seen well respected HoH posters rank him #6 ever behind only The Big 4 and Harvey. I think it's impossible he'll ever be top 8 like Beliveau. I'm trying to expand and explain my position, not post again for the sake of it. Have a nice day.

Yeah. The more I think about it, seems too far fetched to have him at #5-8. Messier/Clarke might be closer to reality. If all goes well.

 

[daver]

If you are talking about his 3rd, 4th or 5th seasons, then no. He was not on pace for those kind of numbers and he had healthy seasons in those years and he clearly was not going to touch 125-130.

Talking about seasons 6 and 8.

 

[daver]

I don't see how Crosby was particularly close to Wayne in terms of offensive numbers in his first two years.

In relative terms.

At the very least, he had the best 18 and 19 year old seasons in history after Wayne. Wayne also 6 months older and had a year of pro hockey under his belt when he hit the NHL.

 

[Plural]

In relative terms.

At the very least, he had the best 18 and 19 year old seasons in history after Wayne. Wayne also 6 months older and had a year of pro hockey under his belt when he hit the NHL.

He wasn't exactly close even in relative terms. Closer than anyone else? Probably. Actually close? Not really.