Crosby vs Ovechkin - who scores more goals moving forward?

[bobholly39]

Same players but new topic. Who scores more career regular season goals moving forward?

Sidney Crosby has 446 goals, in 14 years. Average of 32 a season.
Alex Ovechkin has 658 goals, in 14 years. Average of 47 a season.

Sidney Crosby will be 32 years old when this season starts. Ovechkin will be 34.

No one knows when either player will retire. Ovechkin has hinted in a few interviews lately he might retire soon - but then some people also expect/want him to stay long enough to top Gretzky in career goals, so he could play for a long time. Crosby has had major injuries in the past, so could be forced to retire early with some bad luck - but on the other hand, he seems like the type of player who would age really well and might want to keep playing for a long time.

Who do you predict scores more goals moving forward? As in - starting today, until the time they retire. Regular season only.

Here are three simple math models, to show you it might be closer than expected. Assuming each player retires at 39:

5 more years for Ovi at career average ~47 goals gives him 235 goals
7 more years for Crosby at career average ~ 32 goals gives him 224 goals.

If instead of career averages, we look at past 3 years goal-scoring average, it gives Crosby 36 and Ovi 44.

5 more years of Ovi at ~44 goals gives him 220
7 more years of Crosby at ~36 gives him 252

If instead of 3 years, we look at past 5 year goal scoring average, it's Crosby 34, Ovi 47.

5 more years of Ovi at ~47 goals gives him 235 goals
7 more years of Crosby at ~34 goals gives him 238 goals

So - it could end up being really close, or not. Depends on how long both players keep playing, and how much their goal-scoring totals decline with age.

Feel free to post actual predictions and detailed reasoning for your pick.

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[trick9]

This will end well.

 

[ViktorBaeArvidsson]

I’m still upset that my poll was taken down

 

[Empoleon8771]

The problem with this question is that we have no idea what these guys plan on doing after their current contracts are up. We've heard speculation that Crosby only plans to play out this contract, which was further fueled by Malkin saying he wants to re-sign with the Penguins "for 3 years" after his current deal is done (would put Crosby and Malkin as UFAs in the same year in 2025). I think Crosby and Malkin will probably retire together in 2025, when they're 38 and 39 respectively. That gives Crosby 6 years left, so Ovi needs to probably play 4 years to score more goals than Crosby.

Until we here something more concrete about Ovi's future, I'm not going to assume he's going to leave the NHL anytime soon. So the answer would be Ovechkin, and he'd basically have to go to the KHL after his current deal (or take a 1 or 2 year deal and then retire) for Crosby to score more goals than him.

 

[bobholly39]

[mod]

Crosby is 2 years younger. So if they retire at same age - he has to score as many goals as Ovechkin in 2 more years. I don't think that's outlandish. If they retire at a different age, could lead to even bigger variations, one way or another

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Interesting poll considering Crosby's 2 years younger, and Ovie may feel compelled to return to Russia while he still has good NHL years left. Crosby's more likely to go the Stevie Y route and play 'til he's 40 if he's able.

Still, a Pens fan saying Ovie.

 

[Thenameless]

I can see realistic outcomes where Crosby comes out ahead, but I'm still going with Ovechkin here. Washington loves him, and will likely allow him (or even encourage him) to play late into his career - the man sells tickets. If Ovechkin has a really good next two years (say around the 40-50 goal mark), then he'll have even more reason to stay longer and maybe really chase down Gretzky for the all time record. Ovechkin loves scoring goals and he's really good at it. After a few sluggish years, he's back, and he hasn't looked old to me at all.

 

[tony d]

Ovie.

 

[JustinCase]

Why even ask this ?

This feels like another attempt to start an Ovie vs Sid debate.

Now if the poll had been about points, then maybe we could have an honest discussion.

 

[txpd]

Interesting poll considering Crosby's 2 years younger, and Ovie may feel compelled to return to Russia while he still has good NHL years left. Crosby's more likely to go the Stevie Y route and play 'til he's 40 if he's able.

Still, a Pens fan saying Ovie.

Ov is not going to dump out while still healthy and 800 goals there to get. Meanwhile the age thing is probably also a wash. Crosby is younger with an injury history. Ov is a freak of nature.

 

[spiny norman]

Lopsided result.