Crosby vs Ovechkin - Pick a player moving forward after 2009-2010 - no hindsight available

[bobholly39]

So it's the end of the 2009-2010 regular season (and playoffs) - and you can pick either Sidney Crosby or Alexander Ovechkin to add to your team moving forward. Who do you choose, and why? No hindsight available - pick based on data that was available back in 2010.

Ovechkin:

- 3 season stretch of 2008-2010 certainly more dominant than Crosby, including 3 pearsons and 2 harts
- better goal-scorer
- Great individual playoff performances, but no playoff success per se yet
- Winger, vs Center

Crosby:

- Fantastic start to career overall, but Ovechkin just had 3 seasons in a row better than him
- He was always expected to be better than Ovechkin. As a prospect, since day 1 - expectation had always been he'd be better. Does this still count 5 seasons in?
- Great playoff resume. Individual runs, but also team success. Golden goal at Olympics too.
- Center vs Winger

Who would you have picked, and why? A few bonus questions:

- Does your choice change with hindsight?
- Does your choice change if I changed the question to say "after 2008-2009 season" instead

Click to read more...

 

[bobholly39]

Here's my opinion.

I pick Sidney Crosby. And it's almost solely due to the fact that "he was always expected to be better". I think as performers/players they were close enough, that I pick the guy who was always expected to end up better. Not sure if others will think this is as important, especially ~5 seasons after the start of their careers, but for me it usually is. (it's why I still expect Matthews > Mack for career, not to go off on a tangent).

With hindsight - I certainly still pick Crosby, who I feel is better player/career
Answer doesn't change for me after 2008-2009 instead, I still pick Crosby. I asked this question because I think Crosby had a much better season in 2010 than 2009, so I wonder if some pick Ovechkin after 2009 but change to Crosby in 2010. I almost made the poll for 2009, but I figure it makes more sense to capture all 3 seasons for Ovi.

 

[Voight]

So it's the end of the 2009-2010 regular season (and playoffs) - and you can pick either Sidney Crosby or Alexander Ovechkin to add to your team moving forward. Who do you choose, and why? No hindsight available - pick based on data that was available back in 2010.

Ovechkin:

- 3 season stretch of 2008-2010 certainly more dominant than Crosby, including 3 pearsons and 2 harts
- better goal-scorer
- Great individual playoff performances, but no playoff success per se yet
- Winger, vs Center

Crosby:

- Fantastic start to career overall, but Ovechkin just had 3 seasons in a row better than him
- He was always expected to be better than Ovechkin. As a prospect, since day 1 - expectation had always been he'd be better. Does this still count 5 seasons in?
- Great playoff resume. Individual runs, but also team success. Golden goal at Olympics too.
- Center vs Winger

Who would you have picked, and why? A few bonus questions:

- Does your choice change with hindsight?
- Does your choice change if I changed the question to say "after 2008-2009 season" instead

I disagree. That was mainly due to the (Canadian) media hype machine he had behind him. If Ovechkin had been Canadian or even American it would be a different story. Crosby got a lot of attention early on, Ovechkin being across the world didn't get nearly as much until his performances at the 2003 World Juniors & U18s. The media in NA typically doesn't go out of their way to research and write bout young European players until their draft year.

 

[hamzarocks]

Crosby and Ovechkin were pretty even in 2010. Overall Crosby ended up being the superior/better player with Ovechkin potentially being the greater player due to his trophy case. In 2010 I'd have taken Crosby since he was a center and a bit younger than Ovechkin

 

[filinski77]

Not really surprised Crosby is winning this, but he really shouldn't be. After the end of the2009/2010 season, Ovechkin had went 4/5 seasons where he was head-to-head better than Crosby (including the 3 directly proceeding the end of 09/10).

From 2005/2006:
Points: Ovi 1st, Crosby 3rd
Points/gp: Crosby 1st, Ovi 2nd (0.02 behind)
Goals: Ovi 1st, Crosby 5th (Ovechkin had 47% more goals)
Hits: Ovechkin was 5th in the league (forwards and D)

Even in the playoffs, Ovechkin was outstanding in that period, it was not his fault the rest of the team stunk.
Points/GP: Ovi = 1.43 & Crosby = 1.32
Goals/GP: Ovi = 0.71 & Crosby = 0.48
(Yes I know it is likely that Ovechkin's /gp stats could have decreased if he went on to cup finals etc)

All in all, Ovechkin was much better in the RS (won 3 straight Pearsons in the last 3 seasons of this time frame) and just as good (if not better) in the playoffs. With no hindsight, it should be Ovechkin easily.

 

[Incognito]

Not really surprised Crosby is winning this, but he really shouldn't be. After the 2009/2010 season, Ovechkin had 4/5 seasons where he was head-to-head better than Crosby (including the 3 directly proceeding the end of 09/10).

From 2005/2006:
Points: Ovi 1st, Crosby 3rd
Points/gp: Crosby 1st, Ovi 2nd (0.02 behind)
Goals: Ovi 1st, Crosby 5th (Ovechkin had 47% more goals)
Hits: Ovechkin was 5th in the league (forwards and D)

Even in the playoffs, Ovechkin was outstanding in that period, it was not his fault the rest of the team stunk.
Points/GP: Ovi = 1.43 & Crosby = 1.32
Goals/GP: Ovi = 0.71 & Crosby = 0.48
(Yes I know it is likely that Ovechkin's /gp stats could have decreased if he went on to cup finals etc)

All in all, Ovechkin was much better in the RS (won 3 straight Pearsons in the last 3 seasons of this time frame) and just as good (if not better) in the playoffs. With no hindsight, it should be Ovechkin easily.

Not sure about that claim.

2010-2011:

Ovechkin: 79 GP, 32 G, 53 A, 85 P (1.08 PPG)
Crosby: 41 GP, 32 G, 34 A, 66 P (1.61 PPG)

Advantage: Crosby. He was running away with the goal scoring and points lead until he collided with a Steckel elbow.

2011-2012:

Ovechkin: 78 GP, 38 G, 27 A, 65 P (0.83 PPG)
Crosby: 22 GP, 8 G, 29 A, 37 P (1.68 PPG)

Advantage: Neither. Crosby was injured for the vast majority of the season and Ovechkin had the worst statistical year of his career. Though if you did have to award an advantage here, it would probably go to Ovechkin, just because he did still post a near 40 goal season.

2012-2013:

Ovechkin: 48 GP, 32 G, 24 A, 56 P (1.17 PPG)
Crosby: 36 GP, 15 G, 41 A, 56 P (1.56 PPG)

Advantage: Crosby. He won the Lindsay, and should have taken the Hart too. He would have run away with the scoring race if Brooks Orpik had not shot a puck at his face. Crosby was out for a month before anyone caught up to him in points.

2013-2014:

Ovechkin: 78 GP, 51 G, 28 A, 79 P (1.01 PPG)
Crosby: 80 GP, 36 G, 68 A, 104 P (1.30 PPG)

Advantage: This one is an easy win for Crosby.

2014-2015:

Ovechkin: 81 GP, 53 G, 28 A, 81 P (1.00 PPG)
Crosby: 77 GP, 28 G, 56 A, 84 P (1.09 PPG)

Advantage: Ovechkin takes this one handily.

In the five seasons directly following 2009-2010, Ovechkin was definitively superior in one of them (2014-2015), and arguably in two (2011-2012). Crosby had the clear advantage in 2010-2011, 2012-2013, and 2013-2014.

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

Crosby. Still just 23 yo and just had stellar performances in high stakes games three years in a row. '08 playoffs, '09 playoffs, and '10 Olympics. Yes Ovechkin had better regular season numbers those years, but I still preferred Crosby's cerebral playmaking game. And at that time it still felt like he had untapped potential, and I felt his game would age better. I will give Ovy a lot of credit in that I never expected he'd still be winning rockets at age 34.

 

[izzy]

whats any of that have to do with pre 2010/2011

 

[filinski77]

Not sure about that claim.

2010-2011:

Ovechkin: 79 GP, 32 G, 53 A, 85 P (1.08 PPG)
Crosby: 41 GP, 32 G, 34 A, 66 P (1.61 PPG)

Advantage: Crosby. He was running away with the goal scoring and points lead until he collided with a Steckel elbow.

2011-2012:

Ovechkin: 78 GP, 38 G, 27 A, 65 P (0.83 PPG)
Crosby: 22 GP, 8 G, 29 A, 37 P (1.68 PPG)

Advantage: Neither. Crosby was injured for the vast majority of the season and Ovechkin had the worst statistical year of his career. Though if you did have to award an advantage here, it would probably go to Ovechkin, just because he did still post a near 40 goal season.

2012-2013:

Ovechkin: 48 GP, 32 G, 24 A, 56 P (1.17 PPG)
Crosby: 36 GP, 15 G, 41 A, 56 P (1.56 PPG)

Advantage: Crosby. He won the Lindsay, and should have taken the Hart too. He would have run away with the scoring race if Brooks Orpik had not shot a puck at his face. Crosby was out for a month before anyone caught up to him in points.

2013-2014:

Ovechkin: 78 GP, 51 G, 28 A, 79 P (1.01 PPG)
Crosby: 80 GP, 36 G, 68 A, 104 P (1.30 PPG)

Advantage: This one is an easy win for Crosby.

2014-2015:

Ovechkin: 81 GP, 53 G, 28 A, 81 P (1.00 PPG)
Crosby: 77 GP, 28 G, 56 A, 84 P (1.09 PPG)

Advantage: Ovechkin takes this one handily.

In the five seasons directly following 2009-2010, Ovechkin was definitively superior in one of them (2014-2015), and arguably in two (2011-2012). Crosby had the clear advantage in 2010-2011, 2012-2013, and 2013-2014.

I apologize, probably a mixup in my wording. I meant after the end of the 2009/2010 season, Ovechkin had gone 4/5 on head to head seasons vs. Crosby thus far in their careers.

 

[Rodgerwilco]

I pick Sidney Crosby 8 days a week.

 

[Trap Jesus]

I've never bought Ovechkin over Crosby at any point. With no hindsight available, Ovechkin was always the player it was reasonable to expect to decline further/quicker than Crosby, he was more reliant on physical tools and was more one-dimensional as well.

 

[Varan]

I've never bought Ovechkin over Crosby at any point. With no hindsight available, Ovechkin was always the player it was reasonable to expect to decline further/quicker than Crosby, he was more reliant on physical tools and was more one-dimensional as well.

Now he is, back in his young days absolutely not

 

[Varan]

This is basically the "best player of the decade" 2.0. Everyone knows Ovechkin changed after 2010 and his decline started, then transformed into a triggerman while Crosby started peaking.

Crosby > OV for this decade due to consistency, hasn't declined as much, and had more better seasons than OV this decade. But accomplishments wise, it's close.

And I'm an OV fan.

 

[Trap Jesus]

Now he is, back in his young days absolutely not

Crosby has always been more versatile offensively.

The thought for younger players is always that players more reliant on physical tools will decline quicker. It's like with power forwards people always just put a clock on them where they'll just fall off the map. Ovechkin wasn't strictly a power forward but he did have a lot of those same elements.

Even something like durability was seen as more of a question for him with his style of play than it was for Crosby at that point. I can't remember what Crosby's 07/08 injury was but I know this was all before the really notable 2010/11 concussion issues that plagued Crosby for a while. And then of course in reality Ovechkin has barely missed any time in his career up to this point.

 

[filinski77]

This is basically the "best player of the decade" 2.0. Everyone knows Ovechkin changed after 2010 and his decline started, then transformed into a triggerman while Crosby started peaking.

Crosby > OV for this decade due to consistency, hasn't declined as much, and had more better seasons than OV this decade. But accomplishments wise, it's close.

And I'm an OV fan.

The poll question is based on no hindsight being available. AKA, as far as everyone was concerned right after the 09/10 season, Ovechkin had won the last 3 Pearsons, and lead the league in goals/gp and points/gp the last 3 seasons.

Obviously WITH hindsight, and assuming that Crosby would have been healthy, of course people would have chosen Crosby. But that's not the purpose of this thread.

 

[Varan]

The poll question is based on no hindsight being available. AKA, as far as everyone was concerned right after the 09/10 season, Ovechkin had won the last 3 Pearsons, and lead the league in goals/gp and points/gp the last 3 seasons.

Obviously WITH hindsight, and assuming that Crosby would have been healthy, of course people would have chosen Crosby. But that's not the purpose of this thread.

ohhhh haha, then OV

 

[34]

OV

 

[Son Goku]

Not really surprised Crosby is winning this, but he really shouldn't be. After the end of the2009/2010 season, Ovechkin had went 4/5 seasons where he was head-to-head better than Crosby (including the 3 directly proceeding the end of 09/10).

From 2005/2006:
Points: Ovi 1st, Crosby 3rd
Points/gp: Crosby 1st, Ovi 2nd (0.02 behind)
Goals: Ovi 1st, Crosby 5th (Ovechkin had 47% more goals)
Hits: Ovechkin was 5th in the league (forwards and D)

Even in the playoffs, Ovechkin was outstanding in that period, it was not his fault the rest of the team stunk.
Points/GP: Ovi = 1.43 & Crosby = 1.32
Goals/GP: Ovi = 0.71 & Crosby = 0.48
(Yes I know it is likely that Ovechkin's /gp stats could have decreased if he went on to cup finals etc)

All in all, Ovechkin was much better in the RS (won 3 straight Pearsons in the last 3 seasons of this time frame) and just as good (if not better) in the playoffs. With no hindsight, it should be Ovechkin easily.

Why would you add hits? That just means you're puck chasing more.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I probably would've taken Ovechkin at this point in time. They were pretty comparable players at evens but Ovechkin was stronger on the power play and when I watched the two of them, I always came away more impressed with Ovechkin.

Obviously with hindsight Crosby would've been the right choice.

 

[Romang67]

Why would you add hits? That just means you're puck chasing more.

... no, that's not what hits mean. High number of hits tends to correlate negatively with possession metrics, but that was not the case with Ovechkin. His shot metrics were great early in his career. He just hit everything that moved when his team didn't have the puck (which again, wasn't very often).

Don't confuse correlation and causation.

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

Crosby and no discussion needed. Let’s not forget in this time span Crosby was 20/22 and ovechkin was 22-24. Crosby at 22/24 would have done the same.

 

[KoozNetsOff 92]

OV vs Crosby 05/06-09/10

Hart: 2--1
Finalist: 3--2
Top 10: 4--3
Lindsay: 3--1
Finalist: 4--2
Smythe: 0--0
Calder: 1--0

Ross: 1--1
Top 10 pts: 4--4
PPG leader: 3--1
Top 10 PPG: 4--5

Rocket: 2--1
Top 10 goals: 5--1
GPG leader: 3--0
Top 10 GPG: 5--1

AST (1st+2nd): 5--2
Awards: 9--4

Hart finishes:
1,1,2,6,22 vs 1,3,6,17,24

Goal finishes:
1,1,2,3,4 vs 1

GPG finishes:
1,1,1,5,5 vs 2

Pt finishes:
1,2,2,3 vs 1,2,3,6

PPG finishes:
1,1,1,5 vs 1,2,3,4,6

This is easily OV. Way better hart record, way better lindsay record, way better goal and GPG finishes, better pt and PPG finishes. OV was also the better play driver. There is no argument for Crosby, absolutely none except using hindsight.

 

[Advanced stats]

A huge factor is that Crosby is 2 years younger and I think unquestionably has more desire to play longer.

I can see ovi hanging them up in the NHL and going back to Russia in 3-4 years.

 

[Gurglesons]

Crosby was coming off back to back SCF where he scored at a rate not seen since Sakic, Jags, Forsberg, etc through 3 playoffs.

He won a Rocket Richard in 09-10.

This is Crosby all day. Ovechkin's team had just been the best in the league and an absolute force and got eliminated by a lowly Montreal squad where as Crosby's team looked to be on its way to a dynasty largely on his back.

This is without even getting into the fact Crosby is a center.

 

[KoozNetsOff 92]

Crosby has always been more versatile offensively.

The thought for younger players is always that players more reliant on physical tools will decline quicker. It's like with power forwards people always just put a clock on them where they'll just fall off the map. Ovechkin wasn't strictly a power forward but he did have a lot of those same elements.

Even something like durability was seen as more of a question for him with his style of play than it was for Crosby at that point. I can't remember what Crosby's 07/08 injury was but I know this was all before the really notable 2010/11 concussion issues that plagued Crosby for a while. And then of course in reality Ovechkin has barely missed any time in his career up to this point.

From 05/06-09/10 Crosby finished top 10 in goals and assists in the same season 1x. OV did it 2x. Not sure how Crosby is more versatile there. If you are going to say Crosby can play with scrubs and still put up pts, again in this time period OV played with garbage players some years but still put up better #s than Crosby 4/5 seasons.