Craig Buttons May 2023 Draft Ranking - Sandin Pelikka at #5 edition

[95snipes]

I Remember catching an OHL final broadcast last season on TSN between the Hamilton Bulldogs and the Windsor Spitfires in which Button was one of the people broadcasting the game.

Windsor goalie Matthias Onuska was playing well and Button said something along the lines of "I would be shocked if Onuska didn't get drafted this year" meanwhile anyone who was following the Spitfires could tell you that Onuska was nothing more than a good OHL goalie on a hot team.

That comment lives rent-free in my mind and convinced me 100% that Button puts too much stock in the performances he ACTUALLY watched.

I respect that more than copying the same industry standard list.

 

[William H Bonney]

The problem with Button is there is obvious correlation between his rankings and the stats / awards of the most recent international tournament and seemingly very little else. He suffers from extreme recency bias and small sample size obsession.

For example on Cristall. A player shouldn't drop 26 spots in your rankings when your concerns on said player have long been known. Those concerns existed when Button had him at 9. If the ranking at 9 was purely based on him correcting those concerns in a couple of months it would be the most asinine approach to scouting and ranking players. Instead, it feels entirely as if he dropped because he was just okay in the U18s but instead of admitting that, a nonsensical redirect is provided instead.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, Kelowna Rockets forward Andrew Cristall drops from No. 9 on Button’s March list to outside the first round at No. 35.

While Cristall had a strong season offensively for Kelowna (39 goals and 95 points in 54 games) and had solid production at the U18s with six points in seven games, Button said there’s one area of Cristall’s game that needs improvement.

“The brain is there, the hands are there, he’s really, really good in that regard,” said Button. “I’ve wrestled with him because I like him, but he’s not big and he’s not quick. The quickness and the speed is going to have to be developed.”

 

[Michoulicious]

I'm a big ASP fan. Finally getting some praise... Over Smith is a bit strong, but IMO should certainly be considered in that 6-12 range... Big upside pick. Bust potential certainly higher than what you'd prefer for a top 5 pick.

 

[majormajor]

The problem with Button is there is obvious correlation between his rankings and the stats / awards of the most recent international tournament and seemingly very little else. He suffers from extreme recency bias and small sample size obsession.

For example on Cristall. A player shouldn't drop 26 spots in your rankings when your concerns on said player have long been known. Those concerns existed when Button had him at 9. If the ranking at 9 was purely based on him correcting those concerns in a couple of months it would be the most asinine approach to scouting and ranking players. Instead, it feels entirely as if he dropped because he was just okay in the U18s but instead of admitting that, a nonsensical redirect is provided instead.

I think Cristall is going to drop heavily on a lot of lists and for kind of an unavoidable reason. He's very inconsistent game to game and that's hard to grade. A lot of great games and bad games. There is some question of whether he'll rise to the occasion and have great games when it matters. And the answer, not just in the U18s but in the WHL playoffs, was that he had bad games when it mattered. Of course he'll fall hard.

 

[Brodeur]

Button is always all over the place. Loves to make a lot of 'hot takes'

He has Reinbacher 24th overall on this list but for his Mock Draft last week he took him 8th.

I mean I get a draft rankings and a mock draft are different, but gimme a break.

FWIW he was personally lower on Virtanen/Zacha on his list but had them going to Vancouver/NJD on his mock.

 

[toddkaz]

Willander at 8, Benson at 14 and Reinbacher at 26.

Button has lost his mind

 

[Realgud]

Willander at 8, Benson at 14 and Reinbacher at 26.

Button has lost his mind

Lost his buttons

 

[William H Bonney]

I think Cristall is going to drop heavily on a lot of lists and for kind of an unavoidable reason. He's very inconsistent game to game and that's hard to grade. A lot of great games and bad games. There is some question of whether he'll rise to the occasion and have great games when it matters. And the answer, not just in the U18s but in the WHL playoffs, was that he had bad games when it mattered. Of course he'll fall hard.

I'm not saying he won't drop. Or that 9 wasn't too high of a ranking. But that if you're going to drop a player from the top 10 to the 2nd round in a matter of months, one's justification should be rooted in the actual reasoning - poor WHL and U18 performances - and not calling out attributes of the player that were already known when one had him at 9.

 

[Bounces R Way]

Yager dropping all the way to #18 wow. I hope so, would love the Flames to get a speedy RHS C like that with their pick.
Ain't no way I take a guy like Wood over him.
And ain't no way I take a sub 6 foot dman at #5.

 

[Guadana]

Button is always all over the place. Loves to make a lot of 'hot takes'

He has Reinbacher 24th overall on this list but for his Mock Draft last week he took him 8th.

I mean I get a draft rankings and a mock draft are different, but gimme a break.

He said he is much smarter than nhl gm/scouts by this way.

 

[EbonyRaptor]

The Hawks have 9 picks in the top-100 (1/19/35/44/51/55/67/88/99). If Buttons' list is correct - here are the players the Hawks will draft:

1. Connor Bedard (C) Regina
19. Nate Danielson (C) Brandon
35. Andrew Crystall (RW) Kelowna
44. Easton Cowan (LW) London
51. Reily Heidt (C) Prince George
55. Etienne Morin (D) Moncton
67. Carson Rehkopf (LW) Kitchener
88. Brad Gardiner (C) Ottawa
99. Connor Levis (C) Kamloops

Buttons' mock draft is wildly different than other mocks I've seen but I would be very pleased if it worked out this way.

 

[GettingYourMoms]

A classic Craig Button U18-based ranking.

Having Sale at 7 at this point is just negligent.

Agree i have Sale in 10-14 range after 14 him being still there is very unlikely.

 

[Starry Knight]

The Hawks have 9 picks in the top-100 (1/19/35/44/51/55/67/88/99). If Buttons' list is correct - here are the players the Hawks will draft:

1. Connor Bedard (C) Regina
19. Nate Danielson (C) Brandon
35. Andrew Crystall (RW) Kelowna
44. Easton Cowan (LW) London
51. Reily Heidt (C) Prince George
55. Etienne Morin (D) Moncton
67. Carson Rehkopf (LW) Kitchener
88. Brad Gardiner (C) Ottawa
99. Connor Levis (C) Kamloops

Buttons' mock draft is wildly different than other mocks I've seen but I would be very pleased if it worked out this way.

That’s practically a complete top-6 in one draft.

 

[Jukurit]

Halttunen should not be first rounder.

Also, Jesse Kiiskinen's name is still spelled wrong. It's not Kiiskanen.

 

[Castle8130]

Buttons Mock drafts are really good

Buttons own rankings are god awful. He rarely hits and has a very inaccurate ranking in comparison to redrafts.

 

[Jacob]

Not nearly enough exclamation points after Craig's direct quotes.

 

[BondraTime]

It's as if every draft year doesn't teach everyone that players go higher and lower than expected and it's never going to be the consolidated list that we have read since the start of the season

 

[Mrb1p]

People should just stop clicking Buffoons and Conmans article altogether.

 

[rt]

Sandin Pellika, why did they give him both a Swedish and Finnish name ? Weirdest name in the draft.

They’re pretty nearby. Fairly common here in Arizona for Garcias and Hernandezes to become Smiths and Johnsons.

 

[Mrb1p]

Halttunen should not be first rounder.

Also, Jesse Kiiskinen's name is still spelled wrong. It's not Kiiskanen.

You have some kind of vendetta against Halttunen lol

 

[Mrb1p]

The Hawks have 9 picks in the top-100 (1/19/35/44/51/55/67/88/99). If Buttons' list is correct - here are the players the Hawks will draft:

1. Connor Bedard (C) Regina
19. Nate Danielson (C) Brandon
35. Andrew Crystall (RW) Kelowna
44. Easton Cowan (LW) London
51. Reily Heidt (C) Prince George
55. Etienne Morin (D) Moncton
67. Carson Rehkopf (LW) Kitchener
88. Brad Gardiner (C) Ottawa
99. Connor Levis (C) Kamloops

Buttons' mock draft is wildly different than other mocks I've seen but I would be very pleased if it worked out this way.

Thats insane, five players in my top 20. Gardiner, Rehkopf and Cowan too.

 

[waitin425]

Reinbacher at 24....neat!

 

[dj Mahoney]

Pretty decent list IMO.

Danny Nelson's high for my liking and I'd have some different placements with other guys but overall it's solid.

Button loves ASP. Kept comparing him to Zubov at the U18s. I don't see that comparison but explains the top 5 placement.

Zubov's 6 year old brother maybe.

 

[bringbacktheskate604]

He's not a bad defender, but this list is just insane recency bias lol
I would be pissed off if the Habs picked him over Smith, Dvorsky, Benson, Wood, Leonard...

Even considering the recency bias, I can't see how you can have Sale ahead of the names mentioned above either.

If Matvei isn't an option at 5 I actually don't hate the pick if I'm a habs fan.
Obviously the safer play is the Centre but those guys while good are not Leo or Fantilli while ASP could very be that new age type of D in the mold of Quinn or Fox etc. As a nucks fan, EP40 is our most important player but Quinn is a very very close 2nd, maybe even equal, he does everything now and tilts the ice for the team.

I know hab fans think Lane is gonna be that guy but that's highly doubtful and given the fact he dropped two the 2nd, every team felt he wasn't worth the risk with a 1st, some multiple 1sts while ASP will likely be a top10 pick. The ceiling is very tempting and any team that needs that potential #1 D might take the leap.

Every year we seem to be seeing D deemed worth the risk, despite the fact its much harder to reach their ceiling or for scouts to even be able to truly gauge them. Quinn Hughes is a great example of that as well, some teams saw the talent but were uneasy, some had him out of the top 10 and a few like Vancouver had him top 3 and one only needs to see Bennings reaction to see that

 

[EbonyRaptor]

That’s practically a complete top-6 in one draft.

Yeah - Buttons is nuts (no surprise there). At least 4 of those guys (Bedard, Danielson, Crystall, Heidt) will be 1st rounders.