COVID-19 Megathread (Please limit all COVID discussion to this thread)

[predfan24]

In our society now... people aren't going to stop at mere willful ignorance... some will go and purposefully sneeze all over the produce aisle... rolling cov...

Coronavirus patients who refuse to self-isolate face murder charges in Italy | Metro News


If we progress towards a situation like Italy I'd like to see us follow Italy's lead and punish those who are selfishly endangering others.

 

[NightowlPred]

Wow! Italy is on a whole other level of crazy now.

What I am wondering is what will the long term effect be. I don't know how it is in the US, but over here a lot of pension funds are invested in the stock market. Well that very stock market lost 25 % in the last 3 weeks. That's not 2008 level drops yet..but we are half way there. I wonder what people will do when they see their pension funds just evaporating.

 

[Legionnaire11]

I agree that we won't really know good specifics of this until the post-pandemic phase.

However, how many after the fact are going to realize that if this doesn't turn out to be"that bad" (which is subjective) that the reason that is so is because of those measures that have been implemented in places like China and measures that are being taken right now in the U.S. as we speak?

If taking these measures will lead to a "not that bad" result then they weren't overreactions they were key decisions.

Yup, those in power are damned if they do, damned if they don't.

Don't take drastic action, the situation gets out of hand and thousands die? It's your fault and there's blood on your hands.

Shut things down and the major outbreak never materializes? You overreacted and inconvenienced everyone.

I think as an elected official, or high ranking CEO or commissioner, I'd rather explain myself over situation #2. But either scenario is going to cause a lot of backlash.

 

[101st_fan]

I agree that we won't really know good specifics of this until the post-pandemic phase.

However, how many after the fact are going to realize that if this doesn't turn out to be"that bad" (which is subjective) that the reason that is so is because of those measures that have been implemented in places like China and measures that are being taken right now in the U.S. as we speak?

If taking these measures will lead to a "not that bad" result then they weren't overreactions they were key decisions.

It will take analysis to know if they were key decisions or overreactions. If it turns out that COVID19 is less lethal than H1N1 of 2009-10 where we didn't take these types of steps (over 60 million cases, 12K deaths in the US from that novel influenza pandemic), then we are closer to overreaction. If COVID is really a 4% overall killer then the steps make total sense. Where things fall between those ends after we learn details will determine if this is pragmatic or knee jerk out of fear.

If these drastic global steps last more than a couple of weeks we then run the risk of serious economic issues across the world. Food and other basic goods depend upon an international supply chain at this point ... this isn't a local farm to table world any more. Keeping cars and cell phones working depends upon those same long supply chains. The US is implementing international travel restrictions and shutting down gatherings. Italy is on a total lockdown to the point of closing restaurants and cafes along with banning things like outdoor individual cycling. China is locking down regions. Germany hasn't implemented any travel restrictions as the number of cases there continues to grow. Those actions will have cascading effects.

 

[101st_fan]

Yup, those in power are damned if they do, damned if they don't.

Don't take drastic action, the situation gets out of hand and thousands die? It's your fault and there's blood on your hands.

Shut things down and the major outbreak never materializes? You overreacted and inconvenienced everyone.

I think as an elected official, or high ranking CEO or commissioner, I'd rather explain myself over situation #2. But either scenario is going to cause a lot of backlash.

The thing is that millions die every year from normal levels of illness. Tuberculous kills approximately 1.5million per year globally... over 4k per day on average. The flu kills 15-30k per year in the US alone annually. AIDS still kills over 700k per year around the world.

IT goes beyond inconvenience. There is a need to balance mitigating infections along with resulting deaths and crippling the global economy for years.

 

[Viqsi]

The thing is that millions die every year from normal levels of illness. Tuberculous kills approximately 1.5million per year globally... over 4k per day on average. The flu kills 15-30k per year in the US alone annually. AIDS still kills over 700k per year around the world.

IT goes beyond inconvenience. There is a need to balance mitigating infections along with resulting deaths and crippling the global economy for years.

The problem with this take is that if healthcare systems get overwhelmed, that's also going to have a crippling effect on the global economy. Worrying about the economy is basically a sunk cost at this point.

 

[bdub24]

Why are we still comparing this to things like the flu?

 

[Armourboy]

Why are we still comparing this to things like the flu?

Its actually not that much different than the flu, it just has a higher mortality rate atm. Basically it's the closest comparative.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Its actually not that much different than the flu, it just has a higher mortality rate atm. Basically it's the closest comparative.

I just think people should be comparing this more to the 1918 version of influenza, not the 2020 version of influenza. There are still a lot of differences. But when it's shiny and new, that's when it really hits hardest. Today we have a lot of advancements that will see us develop vaccines much much sooner, and we will see a much lower mortality rate. Though at the same time, we have a lot more movement of people, so a lot more transmission vectors.

 

[bdub24]

Its actually not that much different than the flu, it just has a higher mortality rate atm. Basically it's the closest comparative.

I mean ok they’re both viruses...but we can vaccinate against the seasonal flu. We don’t know if this is gonna end up being seasonal yet. Its likely to be.

 

[Marty Party]

Isn't there a number out there of how many people caught the virus and have since gotten well? And it's a lot of people right. How many people have had the virus before it was sexy and didn't even know it and have since recovered?

SMH.

 

[Armourboy]

I mean ok they’re both viruses...but we can vaccinate against the seasonal flu. We don’t know if this is gonna end up being seasonal yet. Its likely to be.

Like I said it's the closest comparative really for most people. We really don't know what it's going to do long term but they will develop a vaccine like they have with the flu. It may eventually become just another one of those things people get every year and die from but who knows. It could also mutate into something much worse. Better to be safe than sorry imo.

 

[adsfan]

On Sunday, I saw Dr Fauci from NIH on practically every TV channel that I watched. On Monday night, as I was driving home from work, I heard Milwaukee Admirals VP of Business Development Mike Wojciechowski on the Center Ice radio show saying that the Ads were playing their home game on Friday night (tomorrow). Now, it is cancelled by the AHL. They had a Wednesday morning game for students. That was the first home game in about two weeks. I was really looking forward to going Friday and Saturday night.

A little later, I went to my monthly meeting called Chemist's Circle. The topic was COVID-19. My old friend from graduate school, who runs the group, has been working for the City of Milwaukee Health Department for a number of years, brought his boss to the meeting. The boss showed a Power Point about COVID-19, starting with how it was named as Corona Virus Disease 2019 by WHO. The structure really does look like a crown. It is one of seven known types of Corona Viruses. He gave all of the CDC info that you have probably heard a dozen times, wash your hands, cover a sneeze with your arm...

The boss also stated that one PCR test kit can be used on 300 to 500 people. I have heard that fact no place in the US media. Their lab is one of the two in Wisconsin that are currently testing people. They have their own doctors, nurses and lab, so they are ahead of the game. The other is the UW Madison Department of Health Services. They do good work. They have a lot of equipment and scientific knowledge.

So far, six cases are known in this state. One is in Dane County, where Madison is at and near the center of the state. One is in Waukesha County, the one immediately to the west of Milwaukee County. Two are in the smaller city of Fond du Lac, about 75 miles NW of Milwaukee. One is in Pierce County, over by the Twin Cities. I don't recall where the sixth case was found. More labs will be brought online in the next week or two. Fond du Lac is getting one of the new screening labs. I think that Wisconsin is ahead of a lot of states in terms of preparedness to test people. That is the good news.

Now for the bad news! I have a co-worker who is best friends with a nurse at a local hospital. They have been swamped by people showing up and claiming to be sick when the have no symptoms of COVID-19. No fever, no fatigue, no cough. This is the last thing that we need; a bunch of hypochondriacs taking up time and resources when there may be people who really need to be seen and tested by health care professionals. These people may spread the problem by getting sick at the hospital from a truly ill person and then going back home or to work until they have symptoms or even later.

God bless you and as we say in Wisconsin, Gesundheit!

(I went to Austria about 10 years ago with my daughter's high school orchestra group. We got a lot of God bless yous. I thought it was rather ironic.)

Edit: Wisconsin now has 19 cases reported. Two in Milwaukee County.

Edit: Today, 3-14-20, Wisconsin has 29 cases, 7 in Milwaukee County.

 

[BigFatCat999]

So what are you going to read?

 

[Armourboy]

So what are you going to read?

I have a ton of Warcraft books to catch up on. Plus I'm the type that can find a good documentary and watch it over and over.

 

[101st_fan]

I mean ok they’re both viruses...but we can vaccinate against the seasonal flu. We don’t know if this is gonna end up being seasonal yet. Its likely to be.

Even with a preventative vaccine the seasonal flu infects tens of millions of Americans every year and kills tens of thousands.

Right now we're in the first 90 days of SARS-CoV2, aka COVID19, as a known pathogen ... first illnesses attributed to it in late December, genotype done around 9-10 Jan of this year. What we've seen so far is that it tends to be mild for younger people to include children, lethal among elderly populations. We have no clue how widespread the infection is on a national or global scale and there really isn't any prudent way to test everyone. People diagnosed and those with close contact to them will get tested (as is happening in Europe right now) the rest of the population won't.

The recommendations to mitigate spread are the exact same ones we see for the flu ... distance, hygiene, isolate at home if sick, etc.

 

[Armourboy]

H1N1 never really made much progress in the US though if I recall. I could be remembering wrong though as I've slept more than once since then.

Estimated 61 million infected and 12000 deaths. So if I'm doing my math right the mortality rate was lower than this is expected to be.

Dr. Oz stated in an interview I heard last night up to 110 million infected with close to 1 million deaths if we arent careful. How reliable he is I dunno.

 

[FossilFndr]

Gupta on CNN this morning followed up a question about the estimate of 40% - 60% infection rate in US saying that's likely.

 

[Armourboy]

Gupta on CNN this morning followed up a question about the estimate of 40% - 60% infection rate in US saying that's likely.

Well that's even higher than 110 million bleh

 

[Byrddog]

“By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1 percent of those infected,” Tedros said of the global flu caseload during the news briefing. Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has said that the mortality rate for seasonal flu is 0.1 percent.

We do not know yet what the mortality rate on CoVid-19 is yet the numbers are different from each country from 1 to 4% so the common flu by the year has killed 1/10th of a percent of those infected if this thing is indeed just a 1% mortality that's 10 times more deadly right? It is being reported that it more infectious than the yearly flu as well how much???? That is a critical part I have not heard yet, but if it infects just the normal flu rate which has averaged from 9.3 to 45.0 million cases over the last 10 years. Those are CDC numbers, thus far no rate of infection has been released and only really rough estimates of mortality rates. The only thing we can derive is if the infection rate is as low as has been reported (which I doubt) the numbers will be skewed in terms of mortality. As of yesterday morning the number of cases was 1300 if I recall in the US. If that is true then all of this is a over reaction. Something else that supports over reaction is the China has reported 80,815 with 3177 deaths in a country of 1.4 billion people and a healthcare system only a little better than ours in 1900 for most of that country.

Bottom line this has been handled with extreme caution the economical impact is going to be close to a world wide depression the market is already down 20% where does it stop in the next 30 days???? Does it hit 30% to 40% ? By Oct. 29, 1920, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had dropped 24.8%. Personally I think we pull out of this scare and a lot of money is going to be made in the market when it rebounds. We do need to know a lot more about this virus but what we do know is that it is killing us old farts primarily because we have more health issues. If this had been a eboli type infection thing would have been really bad. So people need to calm the hell down stop stock piling toilet paper and hand sanitizer quit the runs on the grocery store. Hell I have to go to the store for milk and bread today and its not snowing but I dread what I am going to experience. This has become a political football in the US fueled by which party wants to spend more... Just crazy. People need to calm the hell down.

 

[Byrddog]

One other thing important to us. This thing has pretty much ensured there will not be a Cap increase next year. When and if the season resumes the losses are going to be terrible for the sport.

 

[lstcyr]

Well. That was answered fast.

EDIT:
And as my final thought for right now, I'd only say this - boy, now I know how those people back in the spring of 1919 must have felt...

Actually we know more about this virus than the people in 1918-1919. Most governments banned information about the disease due to the war. In fact, it's called the Spanish flu because Spain was the only country giving out information about the true nature of the disease.

 

[bdub24]

Most of SoCal public schools have announced schools are closed starting Monday through the end of the month. Some closed until third week of April. PBS and two other channels will begin broadcasting educational content with each channel targeting certain grade levels. My company has announced optional work from home availability for most job functions (all those where its possible). Getting kinda edgy out here in Cali boys and girls!

 

[LCPreds]

Rutherford county closed next week.

 

[PredsV82]

All KY schools closed next 2 weeks.