Corsi, Plus/Minus and Grossman

[deadhead]

How can Grossman look so bad on metrics yet have a positive plus/minus?

a) small sample distortion
b) Corsi isn't that informative
c) shots v scoring chances

A player will give up a disproportionate amount of shots if they have more starts in their defensive end, are matched up against the other team's best offensive players, or, play a conservative style based on keeping the offense outside where they get more shots per scoring chance (i.e., they don't make mistakes even if they struggle clearing the puck).

So a more aggressive defenseman will clear his zone, move the puck up to the offensive zone more often, get a better Corsi, but if he gambles, will also give up more scoring chances and may have a worse plus/minus. MDZ and McDonald fit this pattern.

This may explain why Grossman has such a better plus/minus than Luke Schenn, even though they look like similar players, Schenn has more "mind fart" plays that lead to goals, whereas Grossman may struggle physically in his own zone, he's a smarter player who doesn't allow as many easy chances.

This is not to say Grossman is a great defenseman, rather, that his consistent solid plus/minus relative to other defenseman on the same team suggests he's doing some things right to prevent goals.

Click to read more...

 

[Jack Straw]

How can Grossman look so bad on metrics yet have a positive plus/minus?

a) small sample distortion
b) Corsi isn't that informative
c) shots v scoring chances

A player will give up a disproportionate amount of shots if they have more starts in their defensive end, are matched up against the other team's best offensive players, or, play a conservative style based on keeping the offense outside where they get more shots per scoring chance (i.e., they don't make mistakes even if they struggle clearing the puck).

So a more aggressive defenseman will clear his zone, move the puck up to the offensive zone more often, get a better Corsi, but if he gambles, will also give up more scoring chances and may have a worse plus/minus. MDZ and McDonald fit this pattern.

This may explain why Grossman has such a better plus/minus than Luke Schenn, even though they look like similar players, Schenn has more "mind fart" plays that lead to goals, whereas Grossman may struggle physically in his own zone, he's a smarter player who doesn't allow as many easy chances.

This is not to say Grossman is a great defenseman, rather, that his consistent solid plus/minus relative to other defenseman on the same team suggests he's doing some things right to prevent goals.

Basically, yes. I got into this same stuff about Grossman on another forum. You have to consider what he does and doesn't do-

He doesn't generate offense so he's not going to contribute to a + shots for.
Defensively, he generally plays (and is best) closer to his own goal. He's not going to prevent a lot of shot attempts from outside, but he will block shots and he will clear the crease. Those things should reduce (somewhat) SOG against, and high quality scoring chances (rebounds, deflections, back door layups).

So if he's doing his job well, I don't think it should be surprising if his play is better reflected in his +/- than his Corsi.

Context really is everything when it comes to stats.

 

[Jack Straw]

Not directly related to the question at hand, but I would also note that Grossman literally looks like a different player from last year. His skating is stronger and he's even handling the puck almost like a real NHL player. I know people were saying that he was seen in a walking boot last year so I have to assume that he was playing hurt for much of the time.

 

[Flyerss]

Just look at who he's playing with, it's all because of Mark Streit if you take Streit out his +/- will be negative.

also he have a worse Corsi relative than AMac while playing with Streit.

 

[NHLPaul]

The answer is a simple one. Grossmann is a bad player. A baddddd player. Plus/minus is one of the worst stats in sports. Essentially no weight should go into plus/minus when evaluating a player. And remember, grossmann is badddd. So is MacDonald.

 

[Dirty but Good]

Streit plays a lot when Giroux Voracek line is out there and Grossmann is his partner a lot of the time at even strength.

By the way, I don't think Grossmann is as bad as most people on the board say he is.

 

[CanadianFlyer88]

Not directly related to the question at hand, but I would also note that Grossman literally looks like a different player from last year. His skating is stronger and he's even handling the puck almost like a real NHL player. I know people were saying that he was seen in a walking boot last year so I have to assume that he was playing hurt for much of the time.

Noooooo.

 

[Funf]

How can Grossman look so bad on metrics yet have a positive plus/minus?

a) small sample distortion
b) Corsi isn't that informative
c) shots v scoring chances

A player will give up a disproportionate amount of shots if they have more starts in their defensive end, are matched up against the other team's best offensive players, or, play a conservative style based on keeping the offense outside where they get more shots per scoring chance (i.e., they don't make mistakes even if they struggle clearing the puck).

So a more aggressive defenseman will clear his zone, move the puck up to the offensive zone more often, get a better Corsi, but if he gambles, will also give up more scoring chances and may have a worse plus/minus. MDZ and McDonald fit this pattern.

This may explain why Grossman has such a better plus/minus than Luke Schenn, even though they look like similar players, Schenn has more "mind fart" plays that lead to goals, whereas Grossman may struggle physically in his own zone, he's a smarter player who doesn't allow as many easy chances.

This is not to say Grossman is a great defenseman, rather, that his consistent solid plus/minus relative to other defenseman on the same team suggests he's doing some things right to prevent goals.

A Grossmann defender?!

Edit: For the record, I could see it being misinterpreted that I'm also a Grossmann defender. I am not.

 

[Appleyard]

Grossmann most common linemates:

Forwards:

Giroux
Voracek
Couturier
Read
Schenn

Defence:

Streit

Corsi for % with Grossmann vs without:

Streit: 42.6% vs 57.8%
Giroux: 43.7% vs 57.8%
Voracek: 44.9% vs 57.8%
Couturier: 41.5% vs 44.8%
Read: 40.2% vs 45.6%
Schenn: 48.1% vs 51.6%

He also has the highest PDO on the team at the moment... 103.5... so he has been the luckiest player on the Flyers.

Last season only Hamilton and Lindholm had a higher PDO in the NHL than that over a full season. In 2011-12 no-one had 103.5 or more. In 2010-11 only Meszaros and Lydman had over 103.5

Before this year since he joined the Flyers he has a Corsi of 46.3% (he has 42.6% this year) and a GF% of 45.2% (he has 58.3% this year), that is frankly a very unsustainable difference, they usually mirror each other quite closely.

Basically, expect to see his +/- start falling soon... though Coburn, MacDonald and Luke Schenn should get better according to their PDOs... though starting Schenn in the Dzone more than all but 11 other NHL D man probably is not helping.

 

[Dirty but Good]

Corsi for % with Grossmann vs without:

Streit: 42.6% vs 57.8%
Giroux: 43.7% vs 57.8%
Voracek: 44.9% vs 57.8%
Couturier: 41.5% vs 44.8%
Read: 40.2% vs 45.6%
Schenn: 48.1% vs 51.6%

Hahaha it's hard to defend that

 

[Curufinwe]

I'm not a Grossmann fan and his Corsi numbers are truly terrible and I always wonder how good Streit would be with a better partner (like Coburn or MacDonald), but I do think Grossmann has been less prone this season to making terrible defensive gaffes than MDZ or LSchenn have. The second game when they were paired together against the Devils and went -9 and Grossmann was +1 goes a long way to explaining the difference in their +/- for the season.

http://flyers.nhl.com/gamecenter/en/boxscore?id=2014020006

But that's just as At ES. On the PK Grossmann has been as out of position as much or more than anyone else.

 

[deadhead]

Grossmann most common linemates:
Corsi for % with Grossmann vs without:

Streit: 42.6% vs 57.8%
Giroux: 43.7% vs 57.8%
Voracek: 44.9% vs 57.8%
Couturier: 41.5% vs 44.8%
Read: 40.2% vs 45.6%
Schenn: 48.1% vs 51.6%

He also has the highest PDO on the team at the moment... 103.5... so he has been the luckiest player on the Flyers.

Last season only Hamilton and Lindholm had a higher PDO in the NHL than that over a full season. In 2011-12 no-one had 103.5 or more. In 2010-11 only Meszaros and Lydman had over 103.5

Before this year since he joined the Flyers he has a Corsi of 46.3% (he has 42.6% this year) and a GF% of 45.2% (he has 58.3% this year), that is frankly a very unsustainable difference, they usually mirror each other quite closely.

I think this is less about Grossman and more about Streit and the first line, notice with the Couts line he's has limited impact. So it's not like he's that protected relative to the other defense on a decent proportion of shifts.

I'm not saying he's a good defenseman, rather, he's doing something that may not show in in Corsi (which doesn't account for scoring chances, which would be more accurate than shots). So he may not be as bad as advertised.

Schenn and McDonald however . . .

 

[Beef Invictus]

No, I think that has everything to do with Grossmann. He is awful at puckhandling, and a complete non-factor 99% of the time offensively. Hell, the team routinely struggles to get the puck out of their own end when he's on the ice.

That destroys the CF stats. And Couturier/Read are naturally going to be impacted less because those two aren't in a position to produce CF to begin with...yet he still hampers them.

 

[Random Forest]

To be fair, Grossmann's WOWY stats shouldn't be flattering to him. Most of the players he plays with are going to get additional minutes in the offensive zone that he won't be afforded which will make their percentages higher when not on the ice with him.


My issue is with his lack of ability and composure with the puck. I am beyond frustrated with him getting the puck and sending a near vertical pass to a player (usually along the wall just outside our blueline) who has absolutely no way or opening up for the pass.

At least with LSchenn, he'll get the puck, take a couple steps with his head up, and look for an open man in a position to receive a pass.

MacDonald, Grossmann, and Schultz are all the biggest offenders with this particular peeve of mine. And it's not as though Streit, Schenn, MDZ, and Coburn are much better. They all do it too frequently, too. It's getting to the point where I think it's a directive from Berube. It's nauseating to watch. The forwards should be getting lower and timing better so they have outlets, and the D should be affording them the time to actually do that before throwing it away. Of course, almost none of our D have the skill to hold the puck with any kind of patience to let this happen, though.

 

[Beef Invictus]

I think it's absolutely a directive from Berube. Coburn and MacD were not bad about it at first...the longer Berube has been coach, the worse it has gotten. Same for MDZ, who has gotten noticeably more invisible as an effective puck mover from his own end as the season has worn on.

 

[BringBackHakstol]

I think a lot of it is small sample, but also keep in mind CORSI and preventing goals are not exactly the same thing.

Results wise, he has been relatively good at preventing goals (my opinion this is more luck/variation than anything)

But he also is completely inept at driving the play into the offensive zone (CORSI)

I think the results will catch up to the CORSI imbalance at some point

 

[deadhead]

I think it's absolutely a directive from Berube. Coburn and MacD were not bad about it at first...the longer Berube has been coach, the worse it has gotten. Same for MDZ, who has gotten noticeably more invisible as an effective puck mover from his own end as the season has worn on.

I think it was primarily playing a string of fast teams that pressured slower defensemen, forcing them to focus on getting the puck out of their own zone to relieve pressure rather than having the time to look for an open man - because they're too slow to skate the puck out, they can't get forecheckers to give them any breathing space.

 

[x DeCruze]

https://twitter.com/MimicoHero/status/543149420502855680

Somebody sent me this, shows that luke is our best possession D, but I don't think it shows the competition he faces.

 

[GKJ]

That's because Luke Schenn hasn't been nearly as awful as some people thought.

There is a serviceable unit of 6 defensemen on this roster. MacDonald and Grossmann aren't in it.

 

[Insulin]

Luke also shoots a lot. He doesn't play as many minutes as the other defenseman, but I'm pretty sure he is over 6 shots per 60 minutes at 5v5.

 

[Cootsfanclub]

Is that on net? Luke certainly seems to get his shots through more than everyone but Streit.

 

[Insulin]

Yeah on net.
Schenn-6.35
Del Zotto-4.52
Colaiacovo-3.96
Coburn-3.91
Streit-3.44
Grossmann-2.56
Schultz-1.88
MacDonald-1.59

Shots on goal+Shots directed at net but missed(Fenwick)
Schenn-8.67
Del Zotto-6.39
Coburn-6.21
Streit.5.09
Colaiacovo-4.75
Schultz-4.06
Grossmann-3.69
MacDonald-2.73

 

[deadhead]

That's actually kinda bad for Streit, you'd expect him to be the leader, not in the middle of the pack.

 

[Garbage Goal]

That's actually kinda bad for Streit, you'd expect him to be the leader, not in the middle of the pack.

Considering that his game revolves more around puck movement and passing then shooting at ES, that those stats don't factor in PP time, that he's our 5th leading scorer (not even just D, the whole roster), and outscores our next best D by 10 points...no, it's not bad. Definitely don't care about it at all.

 

[Curufinwe]

That's because Luke Schenn hasn't been nearly as awful as some people thought.

There is a serviceable unit of 6 defensemen on this roster. MacDonald and Grossmann aren't in it.

Schultz-Coburn
CC-Streit
MDZ-LSchenn

That's far from being serviceable. MDZ and LSchenn have given up a bunch of bad goals this season.