Correlation between Shooting Percentage and Mental Toughness.

[nonikhanna]

I was looking through extra skater yesterday and then thought about Justin Williams and Clutch scoring. He has 7 goals on 25 shots in Game 7's and has an average career playoff shooting percentage. While looking this up few questions popped in my head.

1. Why do some players score at a higher shooting percentage during crucial parts of the game?
2. Why do some players turn it up during the playoffs?
3. Are they deviating from the mean?
4. Why can't some players perform at the same level as the regular season?

I think it has to do with "compete" and mental toughness. If a player has more "compete", they will perform better during crucial times. They will have more focus and intensity. Make better plays. Shoot better.
And when some players can't perform during the playoffs like they do during the regular season, they might just be fatigued or maybe they are being outplayed and outcompeted due to their lack of focus.

It can be attributed to goalies too.
Why do some goalies make big saves at crucial times. why would other goalies let them go. Is it complacency that their team has enough offense to erase their mistake? (fleury?).

Player psychology might have a lot to do with shooting percentage during certain parts of the game and could help value some players differently than others.
I know I'm asking a lot of questions without many actual stats and stuff to back it up. I'm not good at stats but had a thought that could improve the way we look at hockey.

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[Bear of Bad News]

It's an interesting (popular) theory, although you'll typically see it expressed as "clutch ability".

As a fan, I believe (or want to believe) that clutch ability exists.

It's been exceptionally difficult to prove that it exists (and is repeatable), however.

Once the Finals have completed, I'll be putting out something that I've been working on related to goaltenders' performance in certain types of clutch situations (games where they can eliminate an opponent, games where they can be eliminated, and mutual elimination games).

 

[oilerbear]

I was looking through extra skater yesterday and then thought about Justin Williams and Clutch scoring. He has 7 goals on 25 shots in Game 7's and has an average career playoff shooting percentage. While looking this up few questions popped in my head.

1. Why do some players score at a higher shooting percentage during crucial parts of the game?
2. Why do some players turn it up during the playoffs?
3. Are they deviating from the mean?
4. Why can't some players perform at the same level as the regular season?

I think it has to do with "compete" and mental toughness. If a player has more "compete", they will perform better during crucial times. They will have more focus and intensity. Make better plays. Shoot better.
And when some players can't perform during the playoffs like they do during the regular season, they might just be fatigued or maybe they are being outplayed and outcompeted due to their lack of focus.

It can be attributed to goalies too.
Why do some goalies make big saves at crucial times. why would other goalies let them go. Is it complacency that their team has enough offense to erase their mistake? (fleury?).

Player psychology might have a lot to do with shooting percentage during certain parts of the game and could help value some players differently than others.
I know I'm asking a lot of questions without many actual stats and stuff to back it up. I'm not good at stats but had a thought that could improve the way we look at hockey.

It comes down to the willingness to go to the high % shooting areas at even and Playing a 2 way game.

The cup winning teams will be 3 lines deep in playoff runs. As for clutch players. if there team is not 9 fwds Deep and Strong Goal differential @ even. You do not win cups.

09-2010 CHI
Kane 8 EVG -2 1 GWG
Sharp 7 EVG +10 1 GWG
Byfuglien F/D 5 EVG -4 5 GWG
Versteeg 6 EVG +4 2 GWG
Bolland 4 EVg +6 1 GWG
Brouwer 4 EVG -1 0 GWG
Hossa 3 EVg +7 1 GWG
Ladd 3 EVG +4 0 GWG
Kopecky 3 EVG +2 1 GWG
8 players top 33 in EVG
Toews 2 EVG 3 GWG
Eager 1EVG 1GWG

10-11 BOS
Krejci 10 EVG +8 4 GWG
Marchand 10 EVG +12 1GWG
Horton 7 EVG 3GWG
Ryder 6 EVG 2GWG
Kelly 5 EVG 0 GWG
Bergeron 4 EVg 1GWG
Lucic 4 EVG 0 GWG
Peverley 4 EVG 2GWG
Recchi 3 EVG 1 GWG
Segin 3 EVG 0 GWG
Ference 3 EVg 1 GWG
Boychuck 3 EVg 1 GWG
Segin 3 EVG 0 GWG
13 players in top 25 EVG
Chara 1 EVG 1 GWG


11-12 LAK
Kopitar 6 EVG +16 1GWG
Brown 5 EVG +16 3GWG
King 5 EVg +3 2 GWG
Carter 4 EVG +4 3GWG
Williams 3 EVG +8 0 GWG
Penner 3 EVG +4 2 GWG
M. Richards 2 EVG 1 GWG
7 Fwds in top 40
Stoll 2 ESg 2GWG
M. Greene 1ESg 1 GWG
Martinez 1ESG 1GWG

Clutch I do not know Chicago had 10 players with GWG. but they would not have been without the other EVG.

 

[nonikhanna]

It's an interesting (popular) theory, although you'll typically see it expressed as "clutch ability".

As a fan, I believe (or want to believe) that clutch ability exists.

It's been exceptionally difficult to prove that it exists (and is repeatable), however.

Once the Finals have completed, I'll be putting out something that I've been working on related to goaltenders' performance in certain types of clutch situations (games where they can eliminate an opponent, games where they can be eliminated, and mutual elimination games).

ooo Maybe you could add points of the game where the score is close, or if one team is dominating the other. A goalie can be lax in their goaltending if they are up by a lot and if a goal goes in, they start to panick and let in a couple more goals. maybe you could do collapses too.

also something ive noticed for a couple of years but thought it was an oddity. there are some games where the shots against are low but the goals against is high. and some games where the shots are high and the goal scoring is low. so there is a large gap in shooting percentages.
it could be due to the goalie not being peppered enough to not be as intense as another goalie who makes save after save? its a stupid theory but its weird.
maybe shots against/goals against graph? the line should be rising. but the more horizontal the line is and the lower it is, would mean a better goalie?
some goalies perform exceptionally on horrible teams but perform mediocre on good teams(Ryan Miller).

 

[nonikhanna]

@oilerbear its not just the GWG that define clutch. its those game tying goals and those goals that start comebacks. like the Game 7 between Chicago and Los Angeles. You could say the 2 goals by LA were clutch because they helped tie up a crucial game 7. that 3rd goal by Chicago in the first period is crucial because it gave them the lead. If you go in depth into every game, there are these clutch moments where the desire to win for one team is greater than the other.
also the cup winning teams will have players with a lot of goals because they are the winning team. they have won the most games, and will have likely scored the most goals. maybe you could calculate production rate. but you should also take into account the clutch goals I mentioned in the previous paragraph.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

You may be interested in this thread:
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?p=34699813

Where people are batting around the importance (or lack thereof) of game-winning goals.

One concept in that thread was "victory-important RBI", used in baseball, where runs scored that either tied the game or put the team ahead by one would be given full credit, with less credit as runs became less critical. It's described (better) in that thread.

 

[nonikhanna]

You may be interested in this thread:
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?p=34699813

Where people are batting around the importance (or lack thereof) of game-winning goals.

One concept in that thread was "victory-important RBI", used in baseball, where runs scored that either tied the game or put the team ahead by one would be given full credit, with less credit as runs became less critical. It's described (better) in that thread.

I looked at that thread. and then started thinking about importance of goals. I think in Hockey the situation of each goal has to be taken in mind. okay lets compare 2 games both with the score 2-1.
1. if team A scores 2 goals first and then team B scores the other goal. then there was really 1 tie-breaking goal.
2. if team A scores 1 goal then team B scores and then team A scores again. there are 2 tie-breaking goals and 1 game tying goal.

the value of the goals in the second situation is a lot more than the value of the goals in the first situation. there are 3 crucial goals in the second situation and only 1 crucial goal in the first.
I think a formula that calculates the importance of goals could be something like |1/(GA-GF)|. okay not exactly that but something like that.

but the point of my post was that some players shoot better during these important tense moments more than others. but maybe this goal importance thing could also help with clutch performance. Because it will have to do less with luck and more with actual game breaking ability. BUT the change in shooting percentage from unimportant games to important games could help determine which players are more capable of turning it up during big games. also if a player has 0 shots in a game because he was being shut down completely, does that count against his game breaking ability? I think both are important. maybe a way to combine both stats?

 

[Iain Fyffe]

Before you attempt to answer why something happens, you must first demonstrates that it happens. I'm not aware of any systematic study that shows certain players consistently perform better than expected, to a statistically-significant degree.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Before you attempt to answer why something happens, you must first demonstrates that it happens. I'm not aware of any systematic study that shows certain players consistently perform better than expected, to a statistically-significant degree.

I'm not, either (and I know that many have looked).