Correlation between Individual Shots vs Shot %?

[Randomtask68]

Does anyone know if there is any correlation between a player's shots taken and their shooting percentage?

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[Mickey Marner]

Yes, shots taken in close proximity to the net go in at a higher frequency.

 

[ChibiPooky]

Not exactly the same, but David Johnson just released this on the relationship between CA/60 and SV%.

http://hockeyanalysis.com/2014/11/24/higher-corsi-rates-boost-save-percentage/

 

[charlie1]

Here is a plot of player's saved shots vs Shooting %. They are correlated but I'm too lazy to calculate it. The correlation kinda makes sense since guys with high Shooting % (e.g., Ovie) will get more opportunities to shoot (e.g., powerplay time).

 

[eklunds source]

At 5v5 only, no, there is no correlation between how frequently you take a shot versus how often those shots go in. As charlie1 said, better shooters tend to get more powerplay time, and powerplay shooting percentage is higher than 5v5 shooting percentage, so in the grand scheme there is probably a correlation, but at 5v5 it's so negligible that it may as well be 0.

Data included in the attached chart includes every forward to play 1000+ minutes of 5v5 hockey between 2007 and 2014 - 564 forwards, ~23,400 goals, ~254,000 shots.



edit: If you change the cutoff from 1,000 minutes to 5,000 minutes - ie, ensuring you only have quality NHL forwards (that brings the sample from 564 forwards to 165, the cutoff changes from "barely including Vasicek, Dandenault, Clune, Jacques" to "barely including Malhotra, Malone, Comeau, Peverly"), the correlation grows (from 0.008 to 0.044), but it's still less than 5% - and that's over 5,000 minutes. In a season where a forward might play 1/4 of that, it again may as well be 0. You can safely ignore it.

 

[DTMAboutHeart]

The correlation is negligible over a large enough sample. In a case by case basis you could make the argument that number of shots taken has a definite effect. Bozak has a naturally high Sh% because he only takes high percentage shots. Ovi has a slightly lower Sh% than one might assume based on his skill but due to the fact he takes many more shots.

Does this mean Bozak should shoot more and Ovi should shoot less? Not exactly. There would be a case of diminishing returns.