Speculation: Contenders Or Pretenders, Which?

[ChaoticOrange]

Option 5.

Outside our forwards everyone knows the Oilers are pretenders and everyone knows you can't win a cup with only good forwards.

It is known.

But I hope I'm wrong ☺

I like ChaoticOrange response and Barry Halls.

I expanded on it a little

 

[FanOfSadTeam]

I'm thinking about the series vs. the Jets. This team today would still have trouble against them. So, long ways to go. Non-core players will have to make significant improvements + goaltending would have to get much better.

 

[Ctrain2k]

If Keith doesn’t regress, if Bouchard takes a huge step forward, if Smith/Koskinen has a great season. Too many “ifs” for me to believe we could actually win it all, I could see us winning a round or 2 and getting bounced by a true contender like Colorado or Vegas. If we win a playoff series this year, the season’s a win for me.

 

[Canovin]

Oilers going all in this year should be the mindset. Next year we might have to retool a bit once Nurse and Pulju extension kicks in and if we can't move on from Keith and Kassian

 

[bone]

I'm thinking about the series vs. the Jets. This team today would still have trouble against them. So, long ways to go. Non-core players will have to make significant improvements + goaltending would have to get much better.

Outside goaltending Edmonton was the better team for large stretches of that series (and that's not to say Edmonton's goaltending was terrible either). Understanding the goaltending hasn't changed, you're probably right. That said, one more goal in regulation in any of those games probably gets the Oilers a victory, and sometimes that first win is the hardest one to win.

If that 0-0 regulation game in Game 2 ends up 1-0 on the strength of a Foegele or Ryan goal, that series likely goes 6 or 7 games and who knows the victor. Or if the improvement defensively to Ryan and Foegele from Jujhar and Shore (as he's more likely to be press boxed in this improved lineup) prevents the 3rd goal in Game 3, game winner in Game 3 or the game tying goal in Game 4, maybe those are Oiler victories as well.

 

[Porkleaker]

No, D is weaker without Larsson (f***ing prick), and our goaltending was solid last year because Smith was outstanding, Koskinen is a big question mark, if he's training under Dustin Schwartz then he's going to play too far in his net, suck at tracking pucks, be weak glove side and let in the first shot on net over and over again. Really needed a goalie... Now if we can manage some upgrades I can see us being a contender. Despite the holes, I'm sure they'll easily make the playoffs probably 1st/2nd in The Pacific, that's also part of it, thankfully they play in the Pacific so much, easily the weakest Division in the league by miles. We'll see.

 

[780il]

The goaltending absolutely needs to be upgraded

As for the D, there’s just to many ifs with that group to have any faith in it rn.

 

[iCanada]

The team are regular season contenders. Whether that translates to playoffs who knows. I mean I like to think so but..

Opposed to the OP I feel that the club has done more to shore up the D than the offensive production. Needs to be remembered that Barrie has been retained, we've acquired some more consistent D help, and that losing Larsson wasn't such a big deal. Losing Bear doesn't even factor. Bouchard will play regularly and of course shine. He's ready to hit the stage running. Could be rook of the year worthy.

Forward we still don't have slinging wingers, none of them, and Kahun was as good at putting puck in net per minute as anybody we're getting. That said our forward puck compete and possession glue should be better. But I think we need to see the end of Yamamoto in topsix. Really I don't see the same roll for him anywhere with some of the energy wingers we've acquired and Holloway coming up. I still see a short list of goal scorers in this lineup. Some of the incoming should be able to offer support scoring but we've thought that of countless adds through the years. You can't count on it. The guys we attained are not natural goal scorers except arguably Derek Ryan who we got far too late.

I tend to agree. I think the forward depth we've procured will help our defenseman out a lot.

It's kind of like when you look at clubs like the Hurricanes or the Golden Knights. Defenceman look a lot better when they have forward options they can rely on. Means easier outs with better lanes to move pucks. It means less forecheck pressure. It means more options open at any given time to recieve a pass. It means you spend less time defending as a whole and when you actually are defending you're spending less effort and energy picking up pieces from defensive breakdowns and more effort and energy into doing your system defined job of limiting high danger chances from boom boom cross seam type plays and more effort available to put into boxing guys out and winning board battles.

The difference between playing behind a solid forward core as a defenseman is absolutely huge. It's easy to see when you guys change teams. You look at a guy like Nate Schmidt or Dougie Hamilton and the massive difference in their game playing behind say the Knights and say the Canucks. Just night and day. Or say a Petry with Edmonton vs Montreal. Or a Schultz with Edmonton vs Pittsburgh. Etc.

I said it pretty well all last season; would rather find a good third line and some better top6 wingers than buy a defenseman. Cheaper and ultimately will have a bigger effect on the actual play of the club defensively.

I do still think we need some work and help at Goaltender though.

 

[iCanada]

Outside goaltending Edmonton was the better team for large stretches of that series (and that's not to say Edmonton's goaltending was terrible either). Understanding the goaltending hasn't changed, you're probably right. That said, one more goal in regulation in any of those games probably gets the Oilers a victory, and sometimes that first win is the hardest one to win.

If that 0-0 regulation game in Game 2 ends up 1-0 on the strength of a Foegele or Ryan goal, that series likely goes 6 or 7 games and who knows the victor. Or if the improvement defensively to Ryan and Foegele from Jujhar and Shore (as he's more likely to be press boxed in this improved lineup) prevents the 3rd goal in Game 3, game winner in Game 3 or the game tying goal in Game 4, maybe those are Oiler victories as well.

We actually had better fancies vs Winnipeg than Montreal did.

We just got unlucky in 4 one goal games, and our bottom 6s inability to contribute or elevate was exposed.

And yeah, you'd like goaltending to not lose the battle so hard. But I think that's less on Smith being bad and more on Helle being exceptional before falling back to earth in the second round.

Although, still not happy with goaltending as a whole, Smith not being any younger, and as much as I'd love for Koski to find some success... I've got no faith in him.

 

[bone]

We actually had better fancies vs Winnipeg than Montreal did.

We just got unlucky in 4 one goal games, and our bottom 6s inability to contribute or elevate was exposed.

And yeah, you'd like goaltending to not lose the battle so hard. But I think that's less on Smith being bad and more on Helle being exceptional before falling back to earth in the second round.

Although, still not happy with goaltending as a whole, Smith not being any younger, and as much as I'd love for Koski to find some success... I've got no faith in him.

Precisely. Hellebuyck won that series for Winnipeg and there isn't any doubt about that. The improvements to our forwards might have been enough to finally break the dam and then you'd have a different result.

Next year in the playoffs, we are most likely going to be facing Markstrom, Demko, Quick, Grubauer, Hill or a slight chance of Lehner. Still good goalies, but I can't see them duplicating Hellebuyck's series. So if we got Smith's 2021 playoff goaltending instead of Smith/Koskinen's 2020 playoff goaltending, I like our chances.

 

[nexttothemoon]

Probably as much a contender as any team in that "2nd tier" of teams behind the "true contenders".

They "should" make the playoffs without too much trouble but even that sometimes can go against expectations depending on a multitude of variables such as injuries/regressions etc.

Once they are in the playoffs though it's basically anyone's guess how far they go... a hot opposing goalie and they could be out in 4 games again. If instead they have the hot goalie and the other team craps the bed in net... Oilers could roll on to the 2nd round with little difficulty. Officiating, a lucky bounce here and there... and of course injuries... all variables that can and will affect how they do in the playoffs.

If I HAD to make a prediction it would probably be that they make the playoffs fairly easily and then possibly win a round and then exit in the 2nd round. They could easily face the same situation as last year once again though with a hard fought 1st round exit again.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

This team won't leave the division with that goaltending.

 

[Lacaar]

This team is not a contender. Not a real one anyway. Great forward group but... we better keep the puck out of our zone.

The term glass cannon comes to mind.

Good enough to make the playoffs, good enough to win a round against the right opponent and maybe give the 2nd round opponent fits, but I just can't ever see this group getting past a team like Vegas.

I think we could beat the shit out of Vegas if the games weren't managed the way they are come playoff time.
Watching Vegas vs Colorado and seeing how those games were managed I can't help but fully agree with you. When you're allowed to absolutely interfere with anyone with or without the puck the superstars get neutered.

Unfortunately for us this isn't the time to have a mega star or even mega stars in the playoffs.
They'll get us there at least!

 

[yukoner88]

I've never heard of a band called the Contenders, so would this really be a fair vote?

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

I think we could beat the shit out of Vegas if the games weren't managed the way they are come playoff time.
Watching Vegas vs Colorado and seeing how those games were managed I can't help but fully agree with you. When you're allowed to absolutely interfere with anyone with or without the puck the superstars get neutered.

Unfortunately for us this isn't the time to have a mega star or even mega stars in the playoffs.
They'll get us there at least!

Vegas is far deeper than we are up front and on the back end.

 

[Little Fury]

Vegas is far deeper than we are up front and on the back end.

Better goaltending too.

 

[Canovin]

Vegas is far deeper than we are up front and on the back end.

Vegas lost to Montreal so anything can happen especially when one team has 2 game breakers and the other has none

 

[FlameChampion]

I dont think they are contenders at this point. They could be somewhat soon depending on how things go.

We havent shown the ability to be successful in the playoffs, so I think its a pretty big leap to expect the team to win a cup this year.

I think theres a few things that need to happen for the team to win.

As great as McDavid is, I think its going to be hard to win in the playoffs. The way the game is called in the playoffs, neuters his ability. I wish it wasnt the case, and I hope things change but I am not optimistic. He needs a lot more help for this team to be a contender (more help than he should theoretically need). At least the forwards should be better than last year, so this should help out substantially (I think it will help promote a more competitive and overall team defense). But the rest of the forwards cant be waiting for McDavid and Draisaitl to do everything.

The team needs one of Bouchard, Broberg, Samurokov etc to emerge as a top pairing dman. And they probably need one of the other to be a top 4 pairing dman. Time will tell on this one.

Some of the draft picks on this team need to turn out. Particularly guy(s) who were drafted round 2+. We watched the Jets this year, they have guys like Lowry, Copp, Appleton, etc who have turned out to be good solid players (middle 6 players). The Oilers need this. They need some guys like Maksimov, Benson, Kesselring, Munzenberger, Tullio, Savoie, Lavoie, etc to turn into good solid players. Doesnt matter which ones it is, but there has to be multiple of them. We also need a coach that trusts them and puts them in a position to succeed.

Lastly we need some stability in goaltending. Smith was great last year. Dudes getting older now. Maybe he has another good year, maybe he doesnt. Its risky regardless. Beyond that they need to find a goaltender or they need Skinner, Konovalov, Rodrigue etc to work out.

Alot of these points just seem like wait and see to me. I think this team can win a cup at some point but I'm not sure its going to happen this year or next. I am concerned that the Nurse/Keith contracts will make it harder to be competitive next year as well. I think Year 3 and 4 are going to be key on what this team can do.

The only thing that I would really add to my post is that while I dont think the Oilers are a true contender, I think the top teams in the West are a bit weaker than they were last year.

Vegas is really the only competition the Oilers should have in the pacific (I will probably end up eating my words). They are probably the team to beat in the west. I dont think they are as good as they were last year. But they still have some really good defense and wingers. Their center depth is weak and I think goaltending is weaker than previous years (Lehner is still pretty solid though). I am probably wrong but they seem like they are on the decline.

Colorado is a really good regular season team. But they havent really been able to put together much in the playoffs either. No guarantee that team is able to get over the top either. Pretty soft back end.

I like Winnipegs offseason (and that team drafts/develops well), but I'm not sure that really that many teams have overly improved in west. Chicagos obviously better but I dont think they are close to a contender. Dallas has a nice back end but their forward depth is pretty weak. I dont think teams like Minnesota, St. Louis etc are much to worry about.

 

[Lacaar]

Vegas is far deeper than we are up front and on the back end.

Vegas is not deeper up front then us anymore imo, let alone far. I'll take our forwards against there's any day of the week if oferred to swap.

Regular season that defense is only a bit better than ours imo. Come playoff time when the rules go away I agree wholeheartedly. That defense is made for abusing playoff officiating.

Shit that whole team is made to abuse playoff officiating haha.

Not a team I'd like to run into in the playoffs. They're skill killers.

 

[nexttothemoon]

I don't think there's much to be taken from that Montreal Cinderella run. They beat 3 teams that were ahead of them in the standings (in an odd, vastly realigned and shortened season without fans, limited travel etc) and then they fell easily to a team in the Finals that was clearly better than them in every aspect. Montreal may not make it back to the SC finals again for another 20+ years and even making the playoffs again will be a challenge for that team this year.

 

[nexttothemoon]

I wonder with Vegas... if there's going to be any player repercussions about how they treated MAF?

I mean it was definitely shitty the way they tossed away a Vezina winner and basically said either go to Chicago or retire... we don't care.

I wonder if that dressing room will lose some of that bond/chemistry that made that team somewhat of an "us against the world" mentality since they came into the league... somewhat of a group of misfits and outcasts banding together and working hard for each other under the "illusion" that the city/management/owner loves them.

Does that MAF transaction put a crack into that "illusion" and now the team loses that fire to play as hard for management/ownership and they fall back to Earth and become much more of an average team?

They are still a great team on paper but I think that team could potentially now become "less than the sum of its parts".

 

[Oilhawks]

I wonder with Vegas... if there's going to be any player repercussions about how they treated MAF?

I mean it was definitely shitty the way they tossed away a Vezina winner and basically said either go to Chicago or retire... we don't care.

I wonder if that dressing room will lose some of that bond/chemistry that made that team somewhat of an "us against the world" mentality since they came into the league... somewhat of a group of misfits and outcasts banding together and working hard for each other under the "illusion" that the city/management/owner loves them.

Does that MAF transaction put a crack into that "illusion" and now the team loses that fire to play as hard for management/ownership and they fall back to Earth and become much more of an average team?

They are still a great team on paper but I think that team could potentially now become "less than the sum of its parts".

Let’s hope. That and their fans already being upset about lack of loyalty to players that have been loyal to the team, as well as looking like another “Sharks” in the playoffs could spell trouble for the franchise if they have a slow start this year

f*** Vegas

 

[FlameChampion]

Let’s hope. That and their fans already being upset about lack of loyalty to players that have been loyal to the team, as well as looking like another “Sharks” in the playoffs could spell trouble for the franchise if they have a slow start this year

f*** Vegas

Yeah and they arent loyal to their coaches either. I still dont understand how Gallant got fired. Its ridiculous. I think the way they have treated their players and coaches is brutal.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Vegas lost to Montreal so anything can happen especially when one team has 2 game breakers and the other has none

I'm sure I don't need to point out that Mike Smith is no Carey Price.

Vegas is not deeper up front then us anymore imo, let alone far. I'll take our forwards against there's any day of the week if oferred to swap.

Regular season that defense is only a bit better than ours imo. Come playoff time when the rules go away I agree wholeheartedly. That defense is made for abusing playoff officiating.

Shit that whole team is made to abuse playoff officiating haha.

Not a team I'd like to run into in the playoffs. They're skill killers.

Vegas can roll four lines easily. I'm not so sure we can.

 

[CornKicker]

I'm sure I don't need to point out that Mike Smith is no Carey Price.


Vegas can roll four lines easily. I'm not so sure we can.

they could they arent as heavy anymore and we can for sure line match them