Comparing Team Schedules

[ScoresFromCentre]

In looking to examine inter-conference performance for the "East-West Discrepancy" topic, I realized that I didn't know how many total inter-conference games there were in the league this year. (I guessed 200; it's actually 216, for the curious.) Googling didn't come up with anything either, so I decided to just compute the number myself. While doing so, I put together a quick Google Sheet showing the number of games each OHL team played against the other 19 teams in the league this year.

The spreadsheet is available here. It contains 2016-2017 data only. Most fans probably won't learn anything they didn't already know about their own team (though I did--it turns out that Kitchener traded a pair of games with Erie for a pair of games with Owen Sound sometime in the last decade), but some of you might be interested to see how your team's schedule compares to those of your division rivals. What does everyone think? Is the schedule fair? Would you make any changes?

Some (potentially) interesting facts, some more obvious than others:

- Every team plays every other team at least twice.
- Teams always play an even number of games against each other (i.e. one home game for every away game with a given team).
- We could consider the "simplest" or most basic schedule to be 6 or 8 games against a team's division rivals, 4 games against each team in the other division in a team's conference, and 2 games against each team in the other conference. While only three teams (Kitchener, Guelph, and Flint) have this exact schedule, most schedules contain only a few tweaks to this formula.
- The most common schedule actually trades two games against an intra-conference, inter-division foe for an extra two games against a division rival. Ottawa, Oshawa, Peterborough, and Kingston do this.
- Kitchener and Guelph have the same schedule. Kingston and Ottawa have the same schedule.
- Hamilton, Mississauga, Niagara, Erie, and London are the only teams without a "scheduled rival" (i.e. eight games against a specific team).

I'm hoping to add some data on head-to-head records and strength of schedule once the season is over--keep an eye on this topic for updates if that interests you. Feedback on the spreadsheet is, of course, also always welcome. Special thanks for Jason Cormier who, IIRC, created a similar chart a number of years back on the NOOF.

Click to read more...

 

[moose311]

Thanks for this, pretty fascinating. I had always assuming each team played 6 vs. each division opponent, 4 vs. each conference opponent, and 2 vs. each of the other conference. That is 64 games, leaving 4 for the schedule makers to use for a team's convenience - e.g. Erie playing Niagara 6 times rather than 2. The further changes they've made beyond that all make a lot of sense though. (Kitchener trading the pair of games vs. Erie probably coincides with Niagara getting their team.)

 

[icepups]

Niagara and Erie are essentially scheduled rivals in that they play 6 inter-conference games per season.

Sorry - redundant post and can't find a delete button.

 

[ohloutsider]

In looking to examine inter-conference performance for the "East-West Discrepancy" topic, I realized that I didn't know how many total inter-conference games there were in the league this year. (I guessed 200; it's actually 216, for the curious.) Googling didn't come up with anything either, so I decided to just compute the number myself. While doing so, I put together a quick Google Sheet showing the number of games each OHL team played against the other 19 teams in the league this year.

The spreadsheet is available here. It contains 2016-2017 data only. Most fans probably won't learn anything they didn't already know about their own team (though I did--it turns out that Kitchener traded a pair of games with Erie for a pair of games with Owen Sound sometime in the last decade), but some of you might be interested to see how your team's schedule compares to those of your division rivals. What does everyone think? Is the schedule fair? Would you make any changes?

Some (potentially) interesting facts, some more obvious than others:

- Every team plays every other team at least twice.
- Teams always play an even number of games against each other (i.e. one home game for every away game with a given team).
- We could consider the "simplest" or most basic schedule to be 6 or 8 games against a team's division rivals, 4 games against each team in the other division in a team's conference, and 2 games against each team in the other conference. While only three teams (Kitchener, Guelph, and Flint) have this exact schedule, most schedules contain only a few tweaks to this formula.
- The most common schedule actually trades two games against an intra-conference, inter-division foe for an extra two games against a division rival. Ottawa, Oshawa, Peterborough, and Kingston do this.
- Kitchener and Guelph have the same schedule. Kingston and Ottawa have the same schedule.
- Hamilton, Mississauga, Niagara, Erie, and London are the only teams without a "scheduled rival" (i.e. eight games against a specific team).

I'm hoping to add some data on head-to-head records and strength of schedule once the season is over--keep an eye on this topic for updates if that interests you. Feedback on the spreadsheet is, of course, also always welcome. Special thanks for Jason Cormier who, IIRC, created a similar chart a number of years back on the NOOF.

I looked at the schedule quickly but Windsor does not play anyone more than 6 times with anyone - use to Play Plymouth 8 times but 2 of those games went to the Flint - Saginaw series.

 

[Otto]

Technically London has rivalry games scheduled with both Windsor & Sarnia, as they play two extra games against them

 

[ScoresFromCentre]

Thanks for this, pretty fascinating. I had always assuming each team played 6 vs. each division opponent, 4 vs. each conference opponent, and 2 vs. each of the other conference. That is 64 games, leaving 4 for the schedule makers to use for a team's convenience - e.g. Erie playing Niagara 6 times rather than 2. The further changes they've made beyond that all make a lot of sense though. (Kitchener trading the pair of games vs. Erie probably coincides with Niagara getting their team.)

You're welcome! Good call on Erie's Kitchener-Niagara swap--I'm sure that's the explanation.

Niagara and Erie are essentially scheduled rivals in that they play 6 inter-conference games per season.

Technically London has rivalry games scheduled with both Windsor & Sarnia, as they play two extra games against them

Good points, guys. That's a much more sensible way of looking at rivalries.

I looked at the schedule quickly but Windsor does not play anyone more than 6 times with anyone - use to Play Plymouth 8 times but 2 of those games went to the Flint - Saginaw series.

According to the OHL website, Windsor and Saginaw play eight games against each other this year--unless I'm reading it incorrectly? Maybe Windsor picked up a couple games against Saginaw after Plymouth moved to Flint?

 

[EvenSteven]

When North Bay moved to Saginaw, London was forced to move to the midwest division. They didn't want to leave the west because of their strong rivalries with Windsor and Sarnia. The league met them half way by allowing extra games vs those rivals. That's why there are extra games vs Windsor and Sarnia and as a result, they don't play any more than 6 games vs anyone in the midwest.

 

[ColtsSec113]

I always found it interesting that Barrie plays Owen Sound at least 8 times a year and they are in different Conferences. Because of close distance. I assumed this happens with other teams as well? anybody know.. assume teams like Sudbury & SSM play a bunch even though in separate conferences to have less travel.

 

[ohloutsider]

You're welcome! Good call on Erie's Kitchener-Niagara swap--I'm sure that's the explanation.





Good points, guys. That's a much more sensible way of looking at rivalries.



According to the OHL website, Windsor and Saginaw play eight games against each other this year--unless I'm reading it incorrectly? Maybe Windsor picked up a couple games against Saginaw after Plymouth moved to Flint?

Went back and looked again - Windsor does play Saginaw 8 times - I was wrong - missed that one - Not sure why as they don't strike me as a big rivalry.

 

[PhlyerPhanatic31]

I always found it interesting that Barrie plays Owen Sound at least 8 times a year and they are in different Conferences. Because of close distance.

Definitely helped pad OS spot in the standings this year

 

[ColtsSec113]

helped us finish last and draft 1st overall and have the player probably go to college instead.

 

[PhlyerPhanatic31]

helped us finish last and draft 1st overall and have the player probably go to college instead.

touché

 

[hockeylegend11]

Attack

Definitely helped pad OS spot in the standings this year

Agreed

 

[OSA]

I always found it interesting that Barrie plays Owen Sound at least 8 times a year and they are in different Conferences. Because of close distance. I assumed this happens with other teams as well? anybody know.. assume teams like Sudbury & SSM play a bunch even though in separate conferences to have less travel.

6 times

 

[Finster8]

Saginaw only plays OS twice and that's ok with me. Did not know about Barrie playing OS that much.

 

[ColtsSec113]

6 times

Yeah your right. 6 times.. I counted 7 and assumed it was 8, but didn't realize I counted 7 because of the postponed game.. but still it's weird 6 times for out of Conference.

 

[ScoresFromCentre]

Yeah your right. 6 times.. I counted 7 and assumed it was 8, but didn't realize I counted 7 because of the postponed game.. but still it's weird 6 times for out of Conference.

You know, that's what the spreadsheet is for--I counted so that you don't have to!

Definitely helped pad OS spot in the standings this year

No kidding! OS gets an extra 4 game against Barrie, 2 games against Guelph, and 2 games against Kitchener. London gets two more games against each of Sarnia, Saginaw, SSM, and Windsor. That's a pretty significant advantage for the Attack--more than enough to account for the difference between the two teams' records.

Something to keep in mind ahead of playoff forecasting!

 

[OSA]

You know, that's what the spreadsheet is for--I counted so that you don't have to!



No kidding! OS gets an extra 4 game against Barrie, 2 games against Guelph, and 2 games against Kitchener. London gets two more games against each of Sarnia, Saginaw, SSM, and Windsor. That's a pretty significant advantage for the Attack--more than enough to account for the difference between the two teams' records.

Something to keep in mind ahead of playoff forecasting!

And Owen Sound is 4-1-1 against London this year. Maybe a few more games against the Knights would have helped pad the stats a bit more.

 

[PhlyerPhanatic31]

And Owen Sound is 4-1-1 against London this year. Maybe a few more games against the Knights would have helped pad the stats a bit more.

That's what you gotta love about OT and SO losses....while OS has won 4 of the 6 games..the Knights record was 2-2-0-2 and they got 6 points out of the 6 games to the Attack's 9. I'd have loved an extra 4 games against Barrie and an extra 2 against the Storm. The Knights would likely be sitting alone in 1st even if they went .500 in those 6 games against the bottom feeders. The Knights struggles against the other top West teams this season is no secret, but when you dissect a schedule you can see when some teams have benefitted from an "easier" go at times.

 

[OSA]

Well the Knights have an extra 2 games against Saginaw. I wouldn't consider an extra 2 games against Guelph to be substantially more preferential than an extra 2 against Saginaw. Particularly when 3 of the 4 games against the Spirit were post-trade deadline and their best player was playing for you guys.

Also, Owen Sound plays 2 more games against Kitchener than the Knights do. I'd much rather play the Sting the extra 2 times (like the Knights do).

 

[PhlyerPhanatic31]

Well the Knights have an extra 2 games against Saginaw. I wouldn't consider an extra 2 games against Guelph to be substantially more preferential than an extra 2 against Saginaw. Particularly when 3 of the 4 games against the Spirit were post-trade deadline and their best player was playing for you guys.

Also, Owen Sound plays 2 more games against Kitchener than the Knights do. I'd much rather play the Sting the extra 2 times (like the Knights do).

This season the extra games against the bottom feeders have benefitted the Attack. No harm in admitting it. An extra 4 games against the last place team would benefit anyone logically. Next season it will be someone different. Perhaps Barrie is a top team again and it actually hinders the Attack. It happens every season for teams with unbalanced scheds. It's only when you dissect things that can actually see the imbalance for certain scheds.

 

[OSA]

This season the extra games against the bottom feeders have benefitted the Attack. No harm in admitting it. An extra 4 games against the last place team would benefit anyone logically. Next season it will be someone different. Perhaps Barrie is a top team again and it actually hinders the Attack. It happens every season for teams with unbalanced scheds. It's only when you dissect things that can actually see the imbalance for certain scheds.

Well there appears to be this narrative that, if the schedules were reversed, the Knights would be home free, in 1st place and on cruise control right now if the schedules. I disagree. Determining strength of schedule is far more nuanced than just looking at games against Barrie and Guelph (as I was trying to demonstrate with the Kitchener vs Sarnia example).

 

[PhlyerPhanatic31]

Well there appears to be this narrative that, if the schedules were reversed, the Knights would be home free, in 1st place and on cruise control right now if the schedules. I disagree. Determining strength of schedule is far more nuanced than just looking at games against Barrie and Guelph (as I was trying to demonstrate with the Kitchener vs Sarnia example).

We can agree to disagree..no harm in that. London also plays SSM 2 more times than OS which cancels out your Kitchener argument. I'll call a wash on your Saginaw/Sarnia stance.

My argument is based on OS playing Barrie(last place in the league) an additional 4 times for a relatively "easy" 8 points. This season that strikes me as an advantage when dissecting both team's scheds. Again...next season it could all change.

 

[Sidekick]

This whole discussion, in my mind, goes hand in hand with the playoff format discussion.

As I was mentioning on the Q forum, Halifax has dropped from 11th to clinging to a playoff spot, due to a recent 0-7 streak - all against division opponents (and none of them Moncton). This schedule continues this weekend, and I'd be surprised if they take any points, which potentially will mean they are outside of the playoff picture. They aren't a great team but they are better than their ranking, but because they are in a division with a few really strong teams and because the playoff format is league-wide, it disadvantages them.

With it being a no-brainer for teams to play close proximity teams more often (better for player travel, better for rivalries/attendance), I can't see how this scheduling matrix could be improved. Re-jig a division? or are we thinking a straight-up balancing out the games league-wide?

 

[PhlyerPhanatic31]

This whole discussion, in my mind, goes hand in hand with the playoff format discussion.

As I was mentioning on the Q forum, Halifax has dropped from 11th to clinging to a playoff spot, due to a recent 0-7 streak - all against division opponents (and none of them Moncton). This schedule continues this weekend, and I'd be surprised if they take any points, which potentially will mean they are outside of the playoff picture. They aren't a great team but they are better than their ranking, but because they are in a division with a few really strong teams and because the playoff format is league-wide, it disadvantages them.

With it being a no-brainer for teams to play close proximity teams more often (better for player travel, better for rivalries/attendance), I can't see how this scheduling matrix could be improved. Re-jig a division? or are we thinking a straight-up balancing out the games league-wide?

I'm in the corner of 1-16 seeding come the PO's...especially when year after year it seems 4 of the top 5 teams are in one Conference.