Speculation: Comparing 1st OA picks of the past decade. Where does Mathews rank?

[Shwaguy*]

Tavares was being gushed over since he was 15. He is up there with Crosby and McDavid in terms of pre draft hype.

Crosby
Tavares
McDavid
Matthews
McKinnon
Stamkos
Ekblad
Kane
Hall
Yakupov
Nuge
Johnson

I would drop Matthews lower, but since the leafs won the lottery he has naturally shot up the hype charts. Not saying he won't live up to it, but we're are just talkin hype here. Before this year I would have Matthews in the Kane area.

My dad and I had season tickets to the Generals when Johnny was there. He was amazing. My favourite player to ever play for the Gens and I was devastated when it was obvious we'd never get him.

I think Matthews as a prospect has been better though. He can do everything Tavares did as a prospect BUT he also has elite skating which Tavares did not.

 

[garyturner3]

Tavares was being gushed over since he was 15. He is up there with Crosby and McDavid in terms of pre draft hype.

Crosby
Tavares
McDavid
Matthews
McKinnon
Stamkos
Ekblad
Kane
Hall
Yakupov
Nuge
Johnson

I would drop Matthews lower, but since the leafs won the lottery he has naturally shot up the hype charts. Not saying he won't live up to it, but we're are just talkin hype here. Before this year I would have Matthews in the Kane area.

It's true he initially started out with Crosby/McDavid level hype. He scored 2ppg and 72 goals starting the season as a 15 year old in the OHL which is absolutely insane. Even during the Stamkos draft I remember so much focus on Tavares because he had outscored Stamkos by a fair bit that year.

But.....after Tavares' first big season in the OHL, his numbers didn't increase; they actually dipped a bit for two straight years which caused him to go from being a generational type player to only a franchise player. By the time draft day came around for Crosby/McDavid, they were on a whole different level of hype that I haven't seen since Lindros.

I'd say Crosby/McDavid without a doubt are by far the most hyped picks over the last decade. Tavares would be next with Matthews not far behind. There were big question marks around Tavares' skating back then. The only question mark that is bringing Matthews' down right now is the fact he's going to be a Leaf and it's tough for people to accept.

 

[IBeL34f]

Edit:

Ugh. Not worth it.

They were looking to get a rise out of people in the Vesey thread, too. Likely the same thing happening here.

 

[Kubus]

As hype goes he's only second to McDavid...this is in part because the Leafs now have the first overall pick and the Leafs were part of the lottery. As for where he falls, let let him play a few years. Right now the best 1st overall pick from the last decade is Kane...his multiple cup rings and the Art Ross say "hello"...I'm sure he's in contention for the Hart as well.

Before we place Matthews, even McDavid, lets let them get a few season under their belts.

 

[Snap24]

It's true he initially started out with Crosby/McDavid level hype. He scored 2ppg and 72 goals starting the season as a 15 year old in the OHL which is absolutely insane. Even during the Stamkos draft I remember so much focus on Tavares because he had outscored Stamkos by a fair bit that year.

But.....after Tavares' first big season in the OHL, his numbers didn't increase; they actually dipped a bit for two straight years which caused him to go from being a generational type player to only a franchise player. By the time draft day came around for Crosby/McDavid, they were on a whole different level of hype that I haven't seen since Lindros.

I'd say Crosby/McDavid without a doubt are by far the most hyped picks over the last decade. Tavares would be next with Matthews not far behind. There were big question marks around Tavares' skating back then. The only question mark that is bringing Matthews' down right now is the fact he's going to be a Leaf and it's tough for people to accept.

Although very impressive for a 15 year old, Tavares was only a bit over ppg in his first year. He didn't score those 72 goals until his next season.

 

[thewave]

Impossible to tell yet, but I think he is probably in the top 5 or 6.

 

[garyturner3]

Although very impressive for a 15 year old, Tavares was only a bit over ppg in his first year. He didn't score those 72 goals until his next season.

I didn't say he played the whole year as a 15 year old; he's got a late birthday. I said he started his 72 goal season as a 15 year old. He started the season you're referring to as a 14 year old. No wonder he was hyped up so much!

 

[King Mapes]

The issue with the thread is people look at it with the benefit of hindsight to see how good the players ended up being rather than try to judge them based on how highly they were projected on draft day.

For example, Tavares had massive hype. Quite a bit more than Stamkos (who IIRC didn't have much).

 

[Stephen]

For example, Tavares had massive hype. Quite a bit more than Stamkos (who IIRC didn't have much).

Stamkos had a lot less hype than Tavares but has generally had a much better pro career. Tavares was like the Hockey Canada golden child for years prior to the draft, but for my money he's never really matched that hype with his NHL performance. He's always been overrated based on real accomplishments for me.

 

[garyturner3]

For example, Tavares had massive hype. Quite a bit more than Stamkos (who IIRC didn't have much).

Agreed. I would have stamkos much lower on the list because it was hard to hype him up all that much given the fact the guy going the year after was already better than him. I can't remember many instances of that happening. Lots of instances where you project the guy going next year to be better in the long run, but very rare where the player is already better and still not draft eligible.

 

[Stephen]

If the Leafs are terrible again next season and find themselves poised to draft first overall again, I wonder if having Matthews will discourage them from selecting a prospect like Nolan Patrick? He looks like the next sure fire 1st overall and a very similar center to Matthews. Couldn't hurt to have two of them, but maybe there will be a dilemma with the defense.

 

[Liminality]

If the Leafs are terrible again next season and find themselves poised to draft first overall again, I wonder if having Matthews will discourage them from selecting a prospect like Nolan Patrick? He looks like the next sure fire 1st overall and a very similar center to Matthews. Couldn't hurt to have two of them, but maybe there will be a dilemma with the defense.

Maybe Liljegren firmly establishes himself as #2, wonder if that would help the Leafs decision at all.

Matthews/Patrick as the #1/#2 would be quite the duo though. Would probably move Nylander over on the wing.

JVR-Matthews-Marner
Komarov-Patrick-Nylander
Leipsic-Kadri-Soshnikov
?

Would be something wouldn't it.

 

[Josh92]

They were looking to get a rise out of people in the Vesey thread, too. Likely the same thing happening here.

I admitted to trying to get a rise out of people in the Vesey thread. However, I never meant to get a rise out of this gentleman. All I said was I did not like Boston area sports teams and he went on a big spiel about how I let others dictate my opinion which couldn't be further from the truth. That's all this was.

 

[Josh92]

If the Leafs are terrible again next season and find themselves poised to draft first overall again, I wonder if having Matthews will discourage them from selecting a prospect like Nolan Patrick? He looks like the next sure fire 1st overall and a very similar center to Matthews. Couldn't hurt to have two of them, but maybe there will be a dilemma with the defense.

This team is not going to be that bad again.

 

[Stephen]

This team is not going to be that bad again.

Lottery.

 

[Josh92]

Lottery.

What place you see them finishing next year? East looks pretty wide open next year beyond the caps, lightning and penguins.

 

[Stephen]

What place you see them finishing next year? East looks pretty wide open next year beyond the caps, lightning and penguins.

I'm more interested in talking about what to do with the first overall with another potential franchise center coming up. Take it and run or get fancy??

 

[Josh92]

I'm more interested in talking about what to do with the first overall with another potential franchise center coming up. Take it and run or get fancy??

Sure. Let's go oilers route. And lightning will strike twice and we ll win 1st overall with (likely) significantly worse odds...genius plan.