Colorado Avalanche Prospect Ranking - January 2015

R S

Registered User
Sep 18, 2006
25,468
10
Now that the NHL season is past the midpoint, I figured it was time to go through and revise my Colorado Avalanche top prospect list. I previously did this exercise back in August, listing a top 15 with honourable mentions and a “just missed†category.

You can find that piece here. I would recommend reading it (if you haven’t already) as it provides further context to this new update, including breaking down the player’s games in more detail.

Before I get started, I guess I need to outline the how and why of this list. I guess all I can say on that is that the list is based off of a number of factors. Those factors include, but aren’t limited to, top-end potential, NHL-readiness timelines, production and potential role.

As an Avalanche fan for the past 19 years I can say that I follow the team’s prospects quite closely, but will be the first to admit that I haven’t seen all of them play this year, especially live. This is just one guy’s perspective, so don’t take it as gospel. I don’t know everything, can’t predict the future and don’t pretend to.

The number in brackets beside the player’s rank is where they stood during my previous August ranking.

With all of that in mid, here is the list. Enjoy. Comments and feedback are always appreciated both on Twitter or via email.

#1 (1) Chris Bigras
LD – 6’2 – 194
Drafted 32nd overall in 2013

Despite a solid recent stretch by Conner Bleackley, Chris Bigras remains comfortably perched as the top prospect in the Colorado Avalanche system. After a bit of a hiccup in his D+1 year in 2013-14 he has had a major resurgence so far this year in Owen Sound. At this point in time he’s put up 44 points in 41 games, including 14 goals (which is 3rd best in the league). Those who watch him regularly will also tell you that his defensive game remains a strong point. While not being a flashy player away from the puck he’s smart, skates well and uses both his stick and body effectively. He will surely challenge for a roster spot in Colorado next year and if he doesn’t crack the club, his stay in Lake Erie shouldn’t be longer than one season.

#2 (2) Conner Bleackley
C – 6’1 – 198
23rd overall in 2014

Just like Bigras, Conner Bleackley maintains his spot on this list compared to where I had him ranked during the summer. It’s been a fairly strong year for the captain of the Red Deer Rebels as he is on pace to improve both his point-per-game numbers from last year along with his goal totals. He scored 29 times in 71 games last year, he currently has 23 in 46 games this year. To go along with the offence, the product of High River, Alberta also continues to play a sound 200-foot game with physicality when necessary. With Red Deer hosting next year’s Memorial Cup I think Bleackley’s future timeline is pretty easily mapped out. Captain the host team on a national stage next year in the biggest event the CHL offers, then do his best to crack the Avalanche in 2016-17. If that doesn’t happen he will be in Lake Erie instead, beginning his professional career at age 19.

#3 (3) Duncan Siemens
LD – 6’3 – 205
11th overall in 2011

This was the first real tough decision on this list, whether to keep Siemens at 3rd despite no stark jump in production or growth. Ultimately, the decision to keep him in this spot was made for one reason. That reason would be the upside of where he could potentially fit into the lineup in the somewhat near future. I still think that ultimately he would be an ideal middle pairing guy on Colorado’s blueline, and that likely carries more value than a backup goalie (Pickard), bottom pairing puck mover (Elliott) or undersized, borderline top-6 scorer (Hishon). While he’s currently injured, reports have been fairly optimistic regarding some of the slow growth Siemens has shown this year. Yes, that may sound like a broken record but I maintain hope that he will eventually take advantage of an NHL chance once he gets it.

#4 (10) Calvin Pickard
G – 6’1 – 208
49th overall in 2010

We have our first riser and it’s a big one as goaltender Calvin Pickard moves from 10th to 4th. Why the big jump? This summer I stressed concern over Pickard’s 2013-14 season. His numbers showed a decline both in his goals against average and save percentage. This year has been a nice resurgence for him. He’s got his AHL save percentage back up over .910 and his fantastic play in spot duty with the Avalanche has obviously greatly helped his cause. While I think his numbers at the NHL level are likely unsustainable, it has been very encouraging that he can show that well at that high of a level with very little experience. Credit to him for working hard to get his professional career back on track. Ideally the Avalanche find a way to get rid of Reto Berra’s idiotic contract and Pickard climbs comfortably into the backup role within the next 12 months.

#5 (5) Stefan Elliott
RD – 6’1 – 191
49th overall in 2009

While I still think Elliott’s game is fairly one-dimensional, it’s worth noting that the one dimension continues to show improvement as he’s now in his 4th year of pro hockey. His 26 points through 40 games are second on the Lake Erie Monsters and only two back of his previous career high (which he set last year with 28 points in 61 games). His 12 goals on 91 shots are also far better than his 14 on 158 shots last year. While it’s easy to point out the pros of his numbers, the problem still remains that he is not close to being a strong defensive player. With that in mind, if he can continue to get smarter with his stick and body positioning, while being sheltered with smart coaching by Roy, there still is hope for him as a bottom pairing blueliner and powerplay guy not unlike Zach Redmond (who was far older than Elliott was when he finally became an NHL regular this year).

#6 (4) Joey Hishon
C – 5’10 – 175
17th overall in 2010

Hishon drops a pair of spots on this list and it’s due to a few reasons. Not only have some players elevated their games a bit more than he has this year, but I have some concerns regarding his role within the actual organization. Several forwards have been recalled at various times this year by the Avalanche, but Hishon hasn’t been one of them. That, despite the fact that he has performed at a better offensive clip this year than last while also showing last year that he could fit into the lineup in a top 9 role quite comfortably, during the playoffs no less. I don’t understand it. Are they just being cautious regarding what kind of role he is playing? Are they worried he might get hurt and have a set back if he was to play at the NHL level? We’ll see what happens with him going forward, but like with Elliott and Siemens, I try to remain optimistic. After all, Hishon has put up 9 points in his last 9 games, so we’ll see if he eventually gets his chance in the NHL in the coming month or two.

#7 (12) Mason Geertsen
LD – 6’4 – 212
93rd overall in 2013

I had some nice things to say about Geertsen back in August when I originally put together this top 15. In that piece I said a 35-point, 100 PIM year in 2014-15 would have been another nice stepping stone for the Vancouver Giants alternate captain. Well, he’s far ahead of that projection, helping lead to this 5-spot jump. Geertsen has nearly doubled his point-per-game rate from last year, currently sitting with 9 goals and 30 points in 47 games to go along with 85 PIMs. He plays in all situations, including quarterbacking the Giants powerplay. I was very happy to see the Avalanche draft him back in 2013 and compared his potential NHL role to a guy like Mark Stuart, a big, mean, shutdown type of guy. But, at this point in time I think his progression is leading me to believe he could potentially end up being more like a Brenden Dillon than a Stuart. I have really liked the big steps forward he has taken this year. He will get a contract this spring and likely seeing 4th or 5th minutes with the Monsters next year, not unlike how Siemens was brought along when he first became a pro.

#8 (14) Dennis Everberg
LW/RW – 6’4 – 209
Signed as free agent

Back in August, one of the most common questions about my list was why I ranked Everberg ahead of Borna Rendulic, another guy the Avalanche had just signed from Europe. I think this year’s performance has shown exactly why. He’s a versatile guy, big, physical, a good skater and ultimately, he was basically NHL-ready (much more-so than nearly anyone expected). Fast forward roughly 6 months and he has been a solid fit both in Lake Erie and Colorado. He has scored and produced regardless of what level he is playing at. While ideally I think his potential would be that of a very solid 3rd line player, he has proven he can play in almost any role handled to him. I toyed with the idea of actually not having him on this list any longer, just due to his proven competence at the NHL level already.

#9 (7) Troy Bourke
LW/C – 5’10 – 175
72nd overall in 2012

While the consistency hasn’t been overly impressive for Bourke recently (only has points in 3 of his past 14 games) the overall production is looking strong for a first year professional player. The AHL rookie currently sits with 5 goals and 13 points in 27 games. Bourke is a bit more of a project than some of the other guys on this list just due to the fact that he might take a couple more years to get bigger, stronger and faster before making his NHL debut. I still think that looking forward he could find a nice role within Colorado’s top 9 forward group. He has shown versatility, being able to play the wing, down the middle and also in all facets of special teams. Ideally I think he’ll make a great 3rd line winger who could see spot duty in the top 6 when injuries occur or the coach looks to shuffle things up.

#10 (6) Will Butcher
LD – 5’11 – 175
123rd overall in 2013

I continue to urge patience with how people view Will Butcher. While his goal-scoring rate is down this year compared to last (by a big margin, actually), the University of Denver product has shown a slight increase in overall production rates. While the jump from 0.42 PPG to 0.47 PPG isn’t huge, it’s still progression. It’s also important to realize that we’re talking about a player who will likely stay at Denver for the full four years before moving on to play pro hockey. Colorado can be patient with him, watch him mature and grow before getting a very close to NHL-ready product a couple more years down the line. I still think that he has a chance to be a very competent fourth or fifth defenceman on a good playoff team, if everything goes well.

#11 (11) Colin Smith
C – 5’10 – 178
192nd overall in 2012

Smith holds steady at his eleventh spot despite some fluctuation both above and below him on the list. It’s been a solid second professional year so far for the former 106-point man in the WHL. Smith was the Monsters top rookie scorer last year and has only grown on that production, going from 0.45 PPG last year to 0.59 this year. I said back in August that not many Avalanche prospects had as high of offensive potential as Smith and that continues to be the case. While his NHL debut earlier this year was only average at best, it was good for the 21 year old to get it out of the way and to see what it takes to get his game to that next level. At worst I think he ends up being one of the top scoring threats in the AHL by the time he is 24 or so years old.

#12 (9) Michael Sgarbossa
C – 5’11 – 180
Acquired from SJ

It’s been a nice bounce-back year for Sgarbossa after an injury-plagued 5 goal season in 2013-14. While his numbers haven’t returned to the rate of his fantastic rookie season of 2012-13, they’re a step in the right direction. Along with that, he has shown quite well in a depth role with the Avalanche this year by posting one assist in 3 games. These are all positive little steps for the player who could still one day find a role with the big club.

#13 (HM) Kyle Wood
RD – 6’5 – 217
84th overall in 2014

A lot of people were caught off guard when the Avalanche seemingly went off the board to take Wood in the 3rd round of the 2014 NHL Draft. After all, the big blueliner only appeared in 33 regular season games during the year. Not a huge sample size to spend a 3rd round pick on. But, he had some things going in his favour. Along with those 33 regular season games the big blueliner had appeared in 22 postseason games, putting up 10 points. He is also a monster at 6’5 and nearly 220 pounds. Fast forward to this year and he has continued his steady progression upwards. He has 27 points in 44 games, including 12 goals. That mark of a dozen tallies is tied for 5th best in the entire OHL. The pick was a bit of a risk for Colorado’s scouting staff, but it’s looking solid so far.

#14 (13) Spencer Martin
G – 6’3 – 192
63rd overall in 2013

Martin hasn’t really done much in order to fall on this list. In fact, he actually took a big step forward in his development this year before a knee injury and subsequent surgery ended his season. As of this very second, Martin’s .921 save percentage is still 3rd best in the OHL while his GAA of 2.98 is 10th best. While both of those numbers are huge improvements compared to his 2013-14 tallies, he is still a longterm project compared to the players in front of him on the list because they are all skaters. I do like his potential, though, so hopefully he can get back into the swing of things next year as he will be making the jump to professional hockey, more than likely in the ECHL.

#15 (HM) Borna Rendulic
RW – 6’3 – 194
Signed as free agent

Rendulic is the second August “honourable mention†to jump into my current top 15, joining Kyle Wood. He does so thanks to a nice start to his pro career in North America. He has posted 8 points in 26 AHL games (with over two shots per game, too) this season but has also proven he can be a capable NHL option already. While his two points (including one NHL goal) in 11 games with the Avalanche isn’t amazing, he has shown some nice signs of adjustment since training camp. While being a big guy and a good skater, he was pretty soft in exhibition action for the Avalanche. He looks to be playing more physical lately, adding to his skillset which includes good hands and vision. While I think he is probably more of a boom or bust guy than someone like Everberg, he has been a pleasant surprise within the organization this year.

Honourable Mentions:

Tomas Vincour – Vincour is 100% new to this list, considering he was in Europe and his future with the organization was unclear back in August. While his season hasn’t been anything to write home about (4 points in 13 games while missing time with injury) he is still a big body with a decent set of hands. I would have expected him to get a shot with the Avalanche this year along with a guy like Everberg, but things haven’t quite panned out that way so far.

Sami Aittokallio – My high hopes for the skilled Finnish goaltender have soured a bit this season as he falls to the spot of an honourable mention after being 8th overall on this list back in August (as well as previously being ranked as my top goalie in the organization). While his physical attributes remain attractive, his AHL numbers have been rough. Oddly enough his ECHL numbers have been even worse.

Samuel Henley – It’s been an ok rookie season for Henley. While his point totals aren’t amazing (7 in 35 games) he wasn’t signed to be an offensive dynamo. If anything, he was brought in to one day be Colorado’s 4th line centre. He’s smart defensively and skates ok considering his size. He was on the “just missed†part of this in August, failing to crack to honourable mentions, so this is a nice little upwards trend for him.

Julien Nantel – Like Henley, Nantel didn’t crack the honourable mentions in August. But, he was actually further down the list. He didn’t even crack the “just missed†category. But, the 7th round pick from the 2014 NHL Draft has shown nice steps forward. He has already matched his 2013-14 point totals in far fewer games, sitting just under a point per game.

Cody Corbett – Corbett came in at #15 on my August list and he drops a couple of spots relative to that. It’s not really due to his lack of progression, it’s more just that other players have taken bigger strides than him and are also closer to being NHL-ready. He has a goal and an assist in 21 games with Lake Erie this year and continues to be a bit of a project who needs to get stronger and work on his footwork and speed.

Nick Magyar – I still have solid expectations for Magyar as he maintains his spot as an honourable mention outside the team’s top 15. With that being said, his point totals are down significantly this year. While I know full well that points aren’t everything, dropping from 0.69 PPG to 0.44 PPG is a concern.

Just Missed:

Andrew Agozzino
Trevor Cheek
Mitch Heard
Alexis Pepin
Roman Will
 

not a troll

Registered User
Oct 24, 2012
2,964
2,607
Pretty much what I have too except swap Elliott and Siemens because of Elliott's improvement this year.
 

henchman21

Mr. Meeseeks
Sponsor
Feb 24, 2012
63,235
47,732
Very good list... my only real disagreement is on Wood who I think should be way up the list.
 

Nihiliste

Registered User
Feb 8, 2010
11,568
4,724
Nice writeup. My major disagreement would be to drop Hishon to around 10th. Watching him play this year in the AHL, I just don't see an NHL future. Whatever issues there are between him and the organization, they don't believe in him and he isn't responding to their suggestions and making strides the way one would expect.

I agree with your sentiment that Everberg probably shouldn't be included as he's shown himself to be a useful bottom 6 player in the NHL while most of these guys are projects and long shots.
 

ABasin

HFBoards Sponsor
Sponsor
Dec 4, 2002
10,679
1,619
That's a really good post. Thank you for taking the time to do that.
 

tigervixxxen

Optimism=Delusional
Jul 7, 2013
53,061
6,159
Denver
burgundy-review.com
Thanks for the write up, it's nice to a have a prospect review at midseason. Can't really disagree with any of the assessments. I agree Everberg shouldn't be a prospect anymore by the summer. I'd personally put Elliott and Hishon lower because it's kind of now or never but that's just more of a philosophy on how to rank guys in their position vs guys still in junior. I'd probably have Wood in my top 10 as well. It's been a good season so far, most guys have either maintained their outlook or improved it.
 

StayAtHomeAv

Registered User
May 20, 2014
6,681
127
1- Bigras: love everything about this kid. Future top4, decent chance at top pair.
2- Bleackley: love his versatility. Future middle 6er
3- Pickard: how can he not be in the top5 after his NHL performance? Definitely see an NHL future for him.

4- Siemens: I'm not ready to give up on him. Still has a good combination of size, skating and skill. Future bottom pair physical defensive Dman with a mean streak, with chance at higher role
5- Elliott: obviously has really good offensive skills. Future bottom pair, pp specialist.
6- Geertsen: big, extremely physical and mean and even runs the PP. Future bottom pair with the potential for a higher role.
7- Butcher: smart and versatile. High probability, low ceiling. Future bottom 4.
8- Rendulic: like what I've seen so far. 3rd liner, potential for top6.

9- Wood: tremendous size with an intriguing skill set. Low probability, high ceiling
10- Henley: size, physical, decent skill for 4th liner, smart. He will be an nhl 4th liner
11- Corbett: very well rounded Dman. Skating might need a little work. Future bottom 6, potential for higher role

12- Nantel: looks like a good 2way guy on paper. Ppg season, known for being good defender
13- Martin: really like this kid. Good size, quite athletic, very good puck skills, great numbers, injury has me worried though

14- Smith: not really expecting much, but like him better than the other call ups
15- Hishon: pretty much given up on him.
 

Foppa2118

Registered User
Oct 3, 2003
52,385
31,643
I agree with most the list, but I think Rendulic is far too low. He'll stay in the NHL over most those guys at the bottom of the list, and I disagree he's a boom or bust guy. I think he's shown very good all around fundamentals, very good skating ability, and a strong willingness to both forecheck hard, and play hard defensively. I think this allows him to fit into a role on any of the 4 lines depending on how much he can develop his NA offensive game.

If he hadn't broken his leg I think he'd have played a very solid role on the Avs all the way down the stretch.
 

R S

Registered User
Sep 18, 2006
25,468
10
Thanks for the feedback.

Obviously a list like this isn't easy to compile with so many things to weigh into consideration. One thing you will notice about me and my lists is that it usually takes a lot for me to bump a guy up a number of spots. Usually they need to show a large spike in production, in overall improvement or by having a good showing on a big stage (see: Pickard).

I think it's easy to rank these guys by "who is hot and who is cold" and it's also easy to fire a guy way up the rankings because he's had a good half season.

Ultimately do I think a guy like Kyle Wood has the 13th-best potential of any of our prospects? No way. He'd be top 5 on that list, easily. But, I also think he's more of a project, has a longer development timeline and is just more of a general longshot than some others ahead of him.

Once the season is over I will have no problem dropping guys like Siemens/Hishon/Elliott down further, especially if they either don't get their shot with the Avalanche or get their shot and don't take advantage.
 

cgf

FireBednarsSuccessor
Oct 15, 2010
60,558
19,392
w/ Renly's Peach
I'd have Smith, Rendulic and Wood over some of the guys ahead of them, Hishon behind some of the guys behind him, and just don't see it with Vincour, but I agree with a lot of what you said...really most of it other than when it came to Hish, I've lost a lot of faith in his ability to make it happen with this organization, similarly to how I just don't think Elliott will get over the psychological hurdle he seems to face when he dons the Avs sweater and remembers what Sacco put him through. And unlike Elliott I'm not even confident he'll manage to carve out an NHL career with another organization, as I expect Elliott to do or Redmond had to.

Good work though, covers a lot of ground well and is a good summary for folks curious about what we've got going on on the farm. Thanks for taking the time.

PS does Butcher strike anyone else like a better version of HunnyBunny?...and I do mean that in a good way as a potential future 3rd RHD.

PPS I also am a less harsh on Siemens numbers not growing for similar reasons to why I'm forgiving of Butcher there, the numbers may not be growing like some others' but his defensive performances are improving and becoming more consistent at the level he's at. Dunk isn't blowing any doors out of hinges but he continues to make solid progress in the areas we need him to be making it...at least between his injuries...Elliott and Hishon, on the otherhand, have shown much more stagnant growth in the areas they need to improve to make it; which is why I still have faith in Siemens but am much more skeptical of Stef and Joey.
 
Last edited:

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad