Prospect Info: Colin White is...

[Ouroboros]

You're too obsessed with this idea of buying UFA years. You also have to pay for potential. Are you absolutely certain 5-6 is going to be max value for Batherson in his prime? You think he and his representation would agree?

I value UFA years at a different rate of compensation than RFA years. I think it's important to control costs and mitigate risk.

I'm also not thrilled about the prospect of paying for potential when I can pay a similar price for results. I don't know what max value is for Batherson, but I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest that he settles in as a useful but unspectacular top-6 forward that gives you 50-55 points per season. 6M is at the top end for that sort of player.

If he becomes a Mark Stone type player then I'll discuss Mark Stone type compensation with his agent at that time.

 

[Adele Dazeem]

is... disappointing, but can still turn it around.
He's a bottom-6er as it stands, and bottom-6ers shouldn't make a cent over 3M.

 

[MatchesMalone]

I value UFA years at a different rate of compensation than RFA years. I think it's important to control costs and mitigate risk.

I'm also not thrilled about the prospect of paying for potential when I can pay a similar price for results. I don't know what max value is for Batherson, but I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest that he settles in as a useful but unspectacular top-6 forward that gives you 50-55 points per season. 6M is at the top end for that sort of player.

If he becomes a Mark Stone type player then I'll discuss Mark Stone type compensation with his agent at that time.

Yes of course UFA years should be valued differently. But there are other factors. I actually tend to agree with you that paying for potential is often not the best idea, but as a general rule I also think it is a bad idea to take such hardline stances as the one you have ("a foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds" said Emerson). You talk about mitigating risk, but it goes both ways. I'm not trying to get into a Batherson evaluation discussion, but just for fun say Batherson ends up being worth 8 or 9 million. If you lock him up long-term at 6 then that's great savings, if you give him a bridge deal then after a couple years you have to pay him full value.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Not going to be benched out of the gate this year.

 

[Ouroboros]

Yes of course UFA years should be valued differently. But there are other factors. I actually tend to agree with you that paying for potential is often not the best idea, but as a general rule I also think it is a bad idea to take such hardline stances as the one you have ("a foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds" said Emerson). You talk about mitigating risk, but it goes both ways. I'm not trying to get into a Batherson evaluation discussion, but just for fun say Batherson ends up being worth 8 or 9 million. If you lock him up long-term at 6 then that's great savings, if you give him a bridge deal then after a couple years you have to pay him full value.

I don't think I'm taking a hard line stance. I'm not saying no long-term contract under any circumstances for a player like Batherson. I just want it structured in such a way so that the player is being compensated fairly and the team has a reasonable expectation of getting at least break even EV each season.

As an example, I could do 6 years, 22.5M for a 3.75M AAV. Yearly structure of 2.1, 2.65, 3.25, 4.0, 5.0, 5.5. That seems pretty fair to me, but I have a little wiggle room to go a bit higher on the front end to push the AAV to 4.0M or maybe even 4.25M.

If Batherson were to become a 8M player I guess I would have accrued some positive value, but I suppose it also depends on what point during the contract term that it happened. If he were to be an elite player from this season on - yeah, horrible contract for him. On the other hand, if he only became elite in year 5 or 6 then it's probably closer to fair. There is also the chance that he pulls a Colin White on us. I guess if you wanted to apply probability weights to all those outcomes you could simulate some GTO type contract for every player, but that seems difficult and the longer term you enter into the higher the probability that one side is short changed.

I think the Senators have not done well on the contract front lately, particularly when it comes to medium or longer term deals. Colin White, Matt Murray, Evgeny Dadonov, Chris Tierney... not a lot of positive value accrued there. I won't hold Zaitsev against them because they didn't sign it themselves, but that one isn't great either.

For a team in Ottawa's position I just favour caution. Seems like these long-term bets are more beneficial to big spending teams who are desperate to preserve cap space rather than a team on an internal cash budget.

 

[DrakeAndJosh]

His teammates love him and he was the first young guy to commit long term. Worst case scenario, the buyout is only like 800k for a few years, but I honestly think he’s tradeable if need be.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Call me when the Sens get anywhere near the cap and White's salary is an issue for fitting someone in. He could have a good year this year and change the narrative around here.

 

[JD1]

I don't think I'm taking a hard line stance. I'm not saying no long-term contract under any circumstances for a player like Batherson. I just want it structured in such a way so that the player is being compensated fairly and the team has a reasonable expectation of getting at least break even EV each season.

As an example, I could do 6 years, 22.5M for a 3.75M AAV. Yearly structure of 2.1, 2.65, 3.25, 4.0, 5.0, 5.5. That seems pretty fair to me, but I have a little wiggle room to go a bit higher on the front end to push the AAV to 4.0M or maybe even 4.25M.

If Batherson were to become a 8M player I guess I would have accrued some positive value, but I suppose it also depends on what point during the contract term that it happened. If he were to be an elite player from this season on - yeah, horrible contract for him. On the other hand, if he only became elite in year 5 or 6 then it's probably closer to fair. There is also the chance that he pulls a Colin White on us. I guess if you wanted to apply probability weights to all those outcomes you could simulate some GTO type contract for every player, but that seems difficult and the longer term you enter into the higher the probability that one side is short changed.

I think the Senators have not done well on the contract front lately, particularly when it comes to medium or longer term deals. Colin White, Matt Murray, Evgeny Dadonov, Chris Tierney... not a lot of positive value accrued there. I won't hold Zaitsev against them because they didn't sign it themselves, but that one isn't great either.

For a team in Ottawa's position I just favour caution. Seems like these long-term bets are more beneficial to big spending teams who are desperate to preserve cap space rather than a team on an internal cash budget.

You could do 6 years at 3.75 AAV. if that's your threshold, prepare to be disappointed

 

[Ouroboros]

You could do 6 years at 3.75 AAV. if that's your threshold, prepare to be disappointed

Not really. I think they're going to bridge Batherson because that's the type of deal that makes the most sense for each side, and unless they somehow f*** that up I doubt I'll be disappointed. His AAV on that type of contract is ~2.5M so a few hundred k either side of that is fine.

I don't think it's a coincidence that pretty much every player in Batherson's situation has been bridged rather than go long-term.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

But this is literally how the league works.

Until fairly recently, RFA years were considered a bargain for the Team. It’s only really been in the last 5-6 years that players have been signing 5M+ contacts off their ELC.

RFA years were considered “prove it” contracts for yeaaaars.

That's the problem.

Now we're expected to overpay for "potential"...then overpay again in the UFA years because of "past performance."

NHL owners and players need to figure out which way to go here.

 

[Langdon Alger]

His teammates love him and he was the first young guy to commit long term. Worst case scenario, the buyout is only like 800k for a few years, but I honestly think he’s tradeable if need be.

That’s why I’m not worried. I think his contract is moveable if we need to go down that road. I do hope he has a good year though. It would get some people to stop whining for a bit.

 

[SensontheRush]

You can't analyze this contract in a vacuum.

You HAVE to consider context here (well that applies to everything tbh). This contract is/was the first step in bringing stability back to the franchise.

 

[BurgoShark]

How about for comparable contracts, we just find other forwards who signed for similar $$ and term at around the same age, instead of arguing over the comparison between a bridge contract or a UFA deal for a guys several older?

Colin White (signed at 22). 6 x $4.75m. No bonuses. No clauses.

Alex Tuch (22) 7 x $4.75m. No bonuses. 5 team NTC in last 3 years.
Vincent Trochek (22). 6 x $4.75m. No bonuses. No clauses.
Christian Dvorak (22). 6 x $4.45m. $300k bonus is year 1. 8 team NTC in last 2 years.
Victor Rask (23). 6 x $4m. No bonuses. No clauses.
Rickard Rakell (23). 6 x $3.8m. No bonuses. No clauses.

Taking in to account that that Tuch got an extra year + NTC, and that Dvorak got an NTC - you'd say those guys left at least some money on the table.

Keep in mind that White is also the youngest member of this group. He is:
6 months younger than Tuch
1 year younger than Dvorak
3.5 years younger than both Trochek and Rakell
4 years younger than Rask

Ultimately, he could stink it up this year, get bought out, and end up as a suitcase signing $1m deals until he's 35. I think it's a little early to tell though. Players improve. If he scores 40 points this coming season it will calm some people down.

 

[TkachukNorrisFacts]

Why does my like button not work?

I got warned for saying it doesn't work but was never told why.

Is there some way or somewhere I can ask this question and get an answer without getting punished?

 

[JD1]

Why does my like button not work?

I got warned for saying it doesn't work but was never told why.

Is there some way or somewhere I can ask this question and get an answer without getting punished?

You'd have to read the site rules but i believe each infraction is 5 points and stays on the books for 90 days. If you have 10 infraction points you cannot like posts. I might be a bit off on how long the points stay active though

 

[Micklebot]

Why does my like button not work?

I got warned for saying it doesn't work but was never told why.

Is there some way or somewhere I can ask this question and get an answer without getting punished?

If you want to discuss specifics about moderation of your posts, you can contact any mod using the conversation direct messages or you could use the contact us link at the bottom of the page. Generally it's not acceptable to discuss the moderation in threads though. As JD1 pointed out, you can get general information in the forum rules,

 

[aragorn]

If L. Brown makes the team I expect that White could be moved to RW & if LB doesn't make the team I expect White could likely stay at centre.

 

[SENATOR]

The sings were all there when White was with Belleville. 2017-18........ -17!!!

Belleville Senators

AHL

47

11

16

27

43

-17

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Why would you give a huge contract to a player, who sucks defensively. It just does not make any sense at all.
It means that player spends all his time on the ice chasing a puck. The same goes for Tkachuk's line.

I am not sure why White is ahead of Logan Brown and plays in NHL. Where Brown all his hockey life was a very good defensive player and a responsible centre.
Last two seasons

Belleville Senators

AHL

25

7

21

28

43

7

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Belleville Senators

AHL

13

2

7

9

8

0

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Cosmix]

If L. Brown makes the team I expect that White could be moved to RW & if LB doesn't make the team I expect White could likely stay at centre.

At this point in time, with no significant NHL forward signings during the off-season, that looks like the plan. In some ways I am disappointed by the lack of management effort to improve the team; in other ways I am thankful that management did nothing this summer.

 

[Cosmix]

The sings were all there when White was with Belleville. 2017-18........ -17!!!

Belleville Senators

AHL

47

11

16

27

43

-17

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Why would you give a huge contract to a player, who sucks defensively. It just does not make any sense at all.
It means that player spends all his time on the ice chasing a puck. The same goes for Tkachuk's line.

I am not sure why White is ahead of Logan Brown and plays in NHL. Where Brown all his hockey life was a very good defensive player and a responsible centre.
Last two seasons

Belleville Senators

AHL

25

7

21

28

43

7

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Belleville Senators

AHL

13

2

7

9

8

0

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Logan Brown has not been able to stay healthy enough to be brought up to the NHL to play. I hope he signs his QO and comes to camp with a new attitude to force his way onto the team; however, my expectations are low that he will do that.

 

[JD1]

Logan Brown has not been able to stay healthy enough to be brought up to the NHL to play. I hope he signs his QO and comes to camp with a new attitude to force his way onto the team; however, my expectations are low that he will do that.

I suspect he feels he should have been an NHL player 2 years ago, earning an NHL paycheque thru all those injuries

 

[Blotto71]

Colin White is... NOT one of the Daves I know, I know. Not one of the Daves I know.

 

[DanyHeatley]

…is a finished product. This guy is cooked. 25-30pt 3/4 C, plays safe style of hockey with barely any intensity, slight hustle, mediocre skill/IQ, and overpaid

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

Colin White is... NOT one of the Daves I know, I know. Not one of the Daves I know.

 

[LudwigVonKarlsson]

The sings were all there when White was with Belleville. 2017-18........ -17!!!

Belleville Senators

AHL

47

11

16

27

43

-17

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Why would you give a huge contract to a player, who sucks defensively. It just does not make any sense at all.
It means that player spends all his time on the ice chasing a puck. The same goes for Tkachuk's line.

I am not sure why White is ahead of Logan Brown and plays in NHL. Where Brown all his hockey life was a very good defensive player and a responsible centre.
Last two seasons

Belleville Senators

AHL

25

7

21

28

43

7

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Belleville Senators

AHL

13

2

7

9

8

0

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Is there anybody that you even like on this team?