Clinching the playoff spot or getting eliminated - different point systems comparison

[ES]

	NHL (2 for win, 1 for OT/SO loss)	IIHF (3 for Reg win, 2 for OT/SO win, 1 for OT/SO loss)	No shootout, no OTL point (NHL 1983-99)	No shootout, 1 for OTL (NHL 1999-2004)	Wins & Losses	No overtime	2 for Reg win, 1 for OT/SO win, 0 for loss	3 for Reg win, 2 for OT win, 1 for SO win, 0 for loss
Anaheim Ducks	17 Mar	19 Mar	23 Mar	19 Mar	21 Mar	19 Mar	23 Mar	23 Mar
Arizona Coyotes	26 Mar	30 Mar	30 Mar	30 Mar	3 Apr	30 Mar	3 Apr	3 Apr
Boston Bruins	28 Mar	30 Mar	2 Apr	28 Mar	2 Apr	26 Mar	4 Apr	4 Apr
Buffalo Sabres	11 Apr	15 Apr	13 Apr	11 Apr	16 Apr	13 Apr	15 Apr	15 Apr
Calgary Flames	4 Apr	4 Apr	12 Apr	4 Apr	6 Apr	6 Apr	11 Apr	11 Apr
Carolina Hurricanes	28 Mar	28 Mar	26 Mar	28 Mar	28 Mar	28 Mar	28 Mar	28 Mar
Chicago Blackhawks	9 Mar	12 Mar	15 Mar	12 Mar	15 Mar	12 Mar	15 Mar	17 Mar
Colorado Avalanche	30 Mar	30 Mar	30 Mar	30 Mar	30 Mar	30 Mar	30 Mar	30 Mar
Columbus Blue Jackets	26 Mar	26 Mar	23 Mar	26 Mar	22 Mar	26 Mar	26 Mar	26 Mar
Dallas Stars	28 Mar	30 Mar	30 Mar	28 Mar	1 Apr	30 Mar	1 Apr	1 Apr
Detroit Red Wings	16 Apr	15 Apr	16 Apr	17 Apr	15 Apr	13 Apr	13 Apr	15 Apr
Edmonton Oilers	5 Apr	5 Apr	5 Apr	5 Apr	5 Apr	6 Apr	5 Apr	5 Apr
Florida Panthers	28 Mar	26 Mar	26 Mar	28 Mar	26 Mar	30 Mar	28 Mar	28 Mar
Los Angeles Kings	11 Apr	9 Apr	11 Apr	6 Apr	17 Apr	9 Apr	11 Apr	11 Apr
Minnesota Wild	9 Apr	12 Apr	12 Apr	12 Apr	9 Apr	12 Apr	12 Apr	12 Apr
Montreal Canadiens	6 Apr	4 Apr	6 Apr	4 Apr	4 Apr	4 Apr	30 Mar	4 Apr
Nashville Predators	9 Apr	7 Apr	9 Apr	7 Apr	7 Apr	9 Apr	6 Apr	6 Apr
New Jersey Devils	11 Apr	15 Apr	15 Apr	13 Apr	15 Apr	13 Apr	16 Apr	13 Apr
New York Islanders	15 Apr	17 Apr	16 Apr	13 Apr	15 Apr	17 Apr	11 Apr	13 Apr
New York Rangers	26 Mar	23 Mar	26 Mar	26 Mar	23 Mar	26 Mar	26 Mar	26 Mar
Ottawa Senators	6 Apr	7 Apr	9 Apr	6 Apr	11 Apr	6 Apr	7 Apr	9 Apr
Philadelphia Flyers	16 Apr	16 Apr	13 Apr	15 Apr	15 Apr	15 Apr	11 Apr	11 Apr
Pittsburgh Penguins	16 Apr	17 Apr	16 Apr	17 Apr	16 Apr	17 Apr	16 Apr	15 Apr
San Jose Sharks	12 Mar	14 Mar	17 Mar	12 Mar	15 Mar	16 Mar	16 Mar	16 Mar
Seattle Kraken	3 Apr	3 Apr	3 Apr	3 Apr	3 Apr	11 Apr	3 Apr	3 Apr
St. Louis Blues	12 Apr	12 Apr	12 Apr	12 Apr	17 Apr	12 Apr	12 Apr	12 Apr
Tampa Bay Lightning	9 Apr	5 Apr	9 Apr	9 Apr	5 Apr	5 Apr	5 Apr	5 Apr
Toronto Maple Leafs	5 Apr	6 Apr	6 Apr	6 Apr	5 Apr	8 Apr	8 Apr	8 Apr
Vancouver Canucks	30 Mar	30 Mar	30 Mar	23 Mar	1 Apr	24 Mar	30 Mar	30 Mar
Vegas Golden Knights	12 Apr	12 Apr	12 Apr	12 Apr	14 Apr	12 Apr	12 Apr	12 Apr
Washington Capitals	16 Apr	16 Apr	16 Apr	16 Apr	16 Apr	16 Apr	16 Apr	15 Apr
Winnipeg Jets	4 Apr	1 Apr	1 Apr	30 Mar	4 Apr	1 Apr	1 Apr	1 Apr

I have done this sometimes on my home computer, but this time I decided to go public with this. The task is to view dates when teams clinch their playoff berths or lose chances to get in.

Currently, no team has clinched their placing, nor anyone has lost chances. Yes, for the top and bottom, it is very theoretical to get out or in, but I will mark it until it's all settled. As it looks now, Blackhawks can be marked as eliminated this week.

I will not take into account the games between teams. As an example, each team has one game remaining.

A 90
-
B 90
C 89

C makes the playoffs if they win and both A and B lose their games, right? However, A and B play against each other, so C doesn't have any chance to be in. But in this table they have.

I have marked eight different point systems in the columns. Does anyone have any other system which should be included? Note, I am not accepting any systems where you get bonus for scoring certain amount of goals etc. The columns dictating points are RW, OTW, SOW, SOL, OTL and RL.

The big part of this is to bust the myth of NHL point system keeping teams in the hunt for longer. Let's see what happens from now on! I will plan to fill the table with green or red dates after clinching or elimination has been set.

Click to read more...

 

[tfwnogf]

my brain hurts

 

[The Crypto Guy]

 

[The Grim Reaper]

The big part of this is to bust the myth of NHL point system keeping teams in the hunt for longer.

I'm curious to see how this plays out.

As to your question, I cannot think of another relevant point system model to include in the analysis.

 

[wintersej]

Wait I’m confused. It doesn’t seem like you are calculating ties correctly based on your headings. It should be point to each team if there was a shootout and shootout results ignored, right?

 

[castle]

I think that’s the NHL 99-04 column. OTL point and no shootout, but if nobody scores in OT then it’s a tie they each get a point, right?

 

[wintersej]

Kind of a fun story from 1998 right before the NHL changes the overtime rules: https://thehockeynews.com/news/throwback-thursday-when-the-nhl-searched-for-a-way-to-break-ties

The best quote

Only one of 23 overtime games (through the first 148 games of this season) was settled in the extra five minute period.

Yikes.

 

[BruinsFan37]

Doubtful there will be any dramatic changes other than among the bubble teams, but will be interesting to see how it plays out. Need to keep in mind though that teams would play differently (especially late in the season) with different point systems. A 3-2-1 point system would make a team on the edge take bigger risks at the end of regulation if they can't afford to lose a single point.

And I assume that any game that ends in a shootout would be reported as a tie in the appropriate column.

 

[ES]

Blackhawks eliminated by the NHL system. On every other system they have a chance:
IIHF: maximum points 102/current last playoff spot 102 (can beat the tie-breaker)
No SO/No OTL: 68/66
No SO/OTL 1p: 72/71
Wins/Losses: 68/64
No OT: 68/68 (can beat the tie-breaker)
RW 2, OTW 1: 63/59
RW 3, OTW 2, SOW 1: 96/89

 

[ES]

March 12th
* Sharks eliminated with NHL system
* Blackhawks eliminated with IIHF system
* Blackhawks eliminated in no shootout system with OTL giving point
* Sharks eliminated in no shootout system with OTL giving point
* Blackhawks eliminated with no overtime system

 

[HaNotsri]

Great thread! Just wanted to show appreciation.

Not worth the work for you but I though about a system like this:
3 pts rw
2 pts ot win
0 pts ot tie
0 pts for loss in ot
0 pts for rl

 

[ES]

March 14th
* Sharks eliminated with
- IIHF system

March 15th
* Blackhawks eliminated with
- no shootout, no OTL point
- wins/losses
- regulation win 2 points, OT/SO win 1 point
* Sharks eliminated with
- wins/losses

 

[PaulD]

Ha! Great example of no play off race ......Wings had the last wild card spot. Then lost 7 straight games. And STILL have the last Wild Card spot.
The NHL talking heads call that a "race" ?

 

[Master P]

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

Another reasonable metric to evaluate would be “how long does a race stay close”. Not just mathematical elimination.

For example you could measure for each system how many “team-games” are played within 5 points of the bubble.

Also I think your analysis is just looking at the moment a team can’t catch the current #8. They could actually be eliminated prior to that. If #8 and #9 are close and play someone must win the game, that could add points to the qualification floor.

 

[a mangy Meowth]

lol people care way too much about trying to get different bubble teams into the playoffs

 

[ES]

March 16th:
Sharks eliminated with:
* no overtime system
* 2 for RW, 1 for OT/SO W
* 3 for RW, 2 for OTW, 1 for SOW

 

[ES]

March 17th:

Ducks eliminated
- NHL system
Sharks eliminated
- No shootout, no OTL point system
Blackhawks eliminated
- 3 for RW, 2 for OTW, 1 for SOW system (courtesy of Golden Knights win)

Blackhawks and Sharks are now officially eliminated with all eight systems.

 

[ItWasJustified]

I believe it was two seasons ago when 13 out of 14 SHL teams could change positions in the standings on the second to last game of the regular season. The SHL of course having the IIHF point system. The only team that was locked in was the last placed team.

I've always thought that the NHL should change to the IIHF point system.

 

[ES]

March 19th:
Ducks eliminated with:
* IIHF system
* No shootout, OTL 1 point system
* No overtime system

 

[ES]

March 21st:
Ducks eliminated with W/L system (because of Golden Knights win)

 

[SheldonJPlankton]

Run a 1-32 playoff format.

Nobody gets "eliminated" during the regular season. Whatever flawed point system that gets followed simply fills in the brackets.

 

[Nineteen67]

Interesting.

If you looked at % odds of making the playoffs, my guess is many teams odds wouldn’t change much between Dec.1st and Mar. 1st and then it would begin to drop daily.

 

[ES]

March 22nd:
* Blue Jackets eliminated with W/L system
March 23rd:
* Blue Jackets eliminated with no SO, no OTL point system
* Ducks eliminated with no SO, no OTL point system
* Ducks eliminated with 2 for RW, 1 for OTW/SOW system
* Ducks eliminated with 3 for RW, 2 for OTW, 1 for SOW system

Ducks now eliminated in every system.

 

[GeeoffBrown]

I've always thought different point systems were because people didn't like games giving out an uneven number of points and also, people don't like shootouts, so they feel like they should be worth fewer points