Dreger: Chychrun trade talks — latest media report AZ hasn’t lowered their asking price

[McDoused]

Puljujarvi has more than worn off the “4th overall” shine. He’s a negative asset that’s failed in every aspect, even when gifted time with two highly offensive players.

Foegele may have value as a 4th liner, but not at 2.7 million

I dont disagree with you too much about the players values. I think both guys are close to if not already are waiver fodder. JP and Foegele either no to negative value but my point is that neither guy would cost much to "dump". Instead they are part of the deal to make the cap work and facilitate the trade. It just seems bizarre to me if Edmonton or another team is willing to meet the coyotes asking price for Chychurn that they would turn the deal away if it means taking some dollars back. It's not like Arizona is retaining salary or that Chychrun is a rental. I cant remember the last time a guy with term was traded without some sort of money going back the other way to facilitate the trade. Like does adding a 4th rounder and/or Niemolainen to offset the money coming in? Like Arizona has cap space so why not use it to get what you want? It's like going into a car dealership and paying sticker for a new car only to find out they won't accept your trade in.

I would imagine quite a few teams would take a flyer on JP as a rental if he was waived or if we threw in a late round pick. Worst case they retain 50% this year and flip him to another team that will give them an asset.

 

[roryjones]

Dallas does not have a 1st. round pick this year.

But they have one in 2024.

 

[Adam da bomb]

But they have one in 2024.

But I doubt a 2024 1st is as competitive being a year out, a weaker draft, so unless the other pieces are better than what other teams are offering it’s probably less competitive of a bid.

 

[66-30-33]

1st in 2023
2nd in 2023
Pickering
Kapanen?

 

[Three On Zero]

I dont disagree with you too much about the players values. I think both guys are close to if not already are waiver fodder. JP and Foegele either no to negative value but my point is that neither guy would cost much to "dump". Instead they are part of the deal to make the cap work and facilitate the trade. It just seems bizarre to me if Edmonton or another team is willing to meet the coyotes asking price for Chychurn that they would turn the deal away if it means taking some dollars back. It's not like Arizona is retaining salary or that Chychrun is a rental. I cant remember the last time a guy with term was traded without some sort of money going back the other way to facilitate the trade. Like does adding a 4th rounder and/or Niemolainen to offset the money coming in? Like Arizoma has cap space so why not use it to get what you want? It's like going into a car dealership and paying sticker for a new car only to find out they won't accept your trade in.

I would imagine quite a few teams would take a flyer on JP as a rental if he was waived or if we threw in a late round pick. Worst case they retain 50% this year and flip him to another team that will give them an asset.

Just Puljujarvi I can see, I just don’t think you can get out from Pulju and Foegele in this trade without more added

 

[mouser]

A bit off topic, but I'm curious what you (and others) think about Schmaltz. His cap hit is $5.85M, but he has a NTC kicking in this summer and he's owed over $8M actual $$ per year in the last 3 years of his contract. So, should we expect AZ to trade him, and is he a positive asset? I'm always a bit leery of guys who may be over producing because they're getting top minutes, PP time, etc., that they might not get elsewhere.

I haven’t done a deep dive to estimate Schmaltz’s value, but I agree with you his value is questionable. The back loaded salary and trade protections would make me leery trading for him.

My current opinion is any team interested in Schmaltz should be confident they can plug him into an equally productive role on their team. Or that the salary cap will be increasing quick enough in the next few years that $5.85m AAV for a second line center is a nice discount.

 

[Nowotny]

Puljujarvi has more than worn off the “4th overall” shine. He’s a negative asset that’s failed in every aspect, even when gifted time with two highly offensive players.

Foegele may have value as a 4th liner, but not at 2.7 million

Puljujarvi will be RFA after this season and would need $3 mil qualifying offer

 

[mouser]

I dont disagree with you too much about the players values. I think both guys are close to if not already are waiver fodder. JP and Foegele either no to negative value but my point is that neither guy would cost much to "dump". Instead they are part of the deal to make the cap work and facilitate the trade. It just seems bizarre to me if Edmonton or another team is willing to meet the coyotes asking price for Chychurn that they would turn the deal away if it means taking some dollars back. It's not like Arizona is retaining salary or that Chychrun is a rental. I cant remember the last time a guy with term was traded without some sort of money going back the other way to facilitate the trade. Like does adding a 4th rounder and/or Niemolainen to offset the money coming in? Like Arizoma has cap space so why not use it to get what you want? It's like going into a car dealership and paying sticker for a new car only to find out they won't accept your trade in.

I would imagine quite a few teams would take a flyer on JP as a rental if he was waived or if we threw in a late round pick. Worst case they retain 50% this year and flip him to another team that will give them an asset.

I think some team will take JP for free or very low value, giving him a test drive with the expectation he won’t be qualified. That team flipping JP at 50% for an asset to another team makes no sense. Any third team won’t care about the 50% cap/salary discount at that point in the season. That third team would have the cap space and the salary saving is negligible.

Foegele is the bigger problem. Let’s say EDM included Foegele in a trade to AZ. That’s $4m In real salary owed to Foegele—a player AZ doesn’t want. The solution to that problem isn’t AZ could just flip Foegele to another team, especially if you want AZ to retain salary to move him. Salary retention slots are limited.

Bluntly, if I’m the Arizona GM I want 2nd+3rd round pick value added on from Edmonton if Foegele is included. And i would push for that value to be an upgrade in the quality of the trade assets, not a straight 2nd+3rd tacked on.

 

[McDoused]

I think some team will take JP for free or very low value, giving him a test drive with the expectation he won’t be qualified. That team flipping JP at 50% for an asset to another team makes no sense. Any third team won’t care about the 50% cap/salary discount at that point in the season. That third team would have the cap space and the salary saving is negligible.

Foegele is the bigger problem. Let’s say EDM included Foegele in a trade to AZ. That’s $4m In real salary owed to Foegele—a player AZ doesn’t want. The solution to that problem isn’t AZ could just flip Foegele to another team, especially if you want AZ to retain salary to move him. Salary retention slots are limited.

Bluntly, if I’m the Arizona GM I want 2nd+3rd round pick value added on from Edmonton if Foegele is included. And i would push for that value to be an upgrade in the quality of the trade assets, not a straight 2nd+3rd tacked on.

That's just bonkers.

Heck that's what Zack Kassian got for 2 years at 3.2M per for 6.4M total and he was complete garbage - that's a true cap dump. Foegele is 1 year at 2.75M cap and is actually a pretty effective 3rd liner. I'd actually like to keep him but hes a cap casualty at this point. It would be hard to get a 3rd team involved (like Detroit, Columbus, Ottawa, etc and pay them retain 1M) and now hes a value added player in your lineup. The cost to retain 1M is closer to a 4th-6th round pick not a 2nd and a 3rd.

Just Puljujarvi I can see, I just don’t think you can get out from Pulju and Foegele in this trade without more added

That's fair. Adding Foegele for a mid pick would be fine with me but not a 2nd and a 3rd.

 

[Stephen]

When these Chychrun rumours started flying around in early 2021-22, the guy had nearly 4 years left on his deal and if nothing gets done at the deadline, it's functionally 2 years. Just feels like that massive time advantage that started at the beginning of this saga has really melted away.

 

[mouser]

That's just bonkers.

Heck that's what Zack Kassian got for 2 years at 3.2M per for 6.4M total and he was complete garbage - that's a true cap dump. Foegele is 1 year at 2.75M cap and is actually a pretty effective 3rd liner. I'd actually like to keep him but hes a cap casualty at this point. It would be hard to get a 3rd team involved (like Detroit, Columbus, Ottawa, etc and pay them retain 1M) and now hes a value added player in your lineup. The cost to retain 1M is closer to a 4th-6th round pick not a 2nd and a 3rd.


That's fair. Adding Foegele for a mid pick would be fine with me but not a 2nd and a 3rd.

From Arizona's point of view Foegele is a complete cap dump, that was my point.

If you want to engage a 3rd team to retain $1m on Foegele at the trade deadline you're severely underestimating the cost. Foegele at the trade deadline will have a $2.75m AAV and $3.9M in real salary remaining. A 3rd team retaining $1M AAV on Foegele will have to pay him $1.4M in salary.

The market rate for $1.4M in dead salary is somewhere between a 2nd and two 3rds.


If Edmonton wants to trade Foegele themselves with $1M retention obviously they can do so.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

When these Chychrun rumours started flying around in early 2021-22, the guy had nearly 4 years left on his deal and if nothing gets done at the deadline, it's functionally 2 years. Just feels like that massive time advantage that started at the beginning of this saga has really melted away.

It really has, time flies...and it's a little bit of a value tradeoff isn't it? Part of his great value was the great deal but the clock's ticking.

 

[lanky]

When these Chychrun rumours started flying around in early 2021-22, the guy had nearly 4 years left on his deal and if nothing gets done at the deadline, it's functionally 2 years. Just feels like that massive time advantage that started at the beginning of this saga has really melted away.

Some of it has melted away but it's still 3 playoff pushes. That's much better value than some of the pure rentals that also have a high acquisition cost.

I think this is important because a team with an old roster towards the end of their competitive window can use Chychrun for 2 playoff drives and then sell him off as a pure rental to recoup assets.

I expect this saga to finally come to an end in the coming 4 weeks.

 

[Stephen]

Some of it has melted away but it's still 3 playoff pushes. That's much better value than some of the pure rentals that also have a high acquisition cost.

I think this is important because a team with an old roster towards the end of their competitive window can use Chychrun for 2 playoff drives and then sell him off as a pure rental to recoup assets.

I expect this saga to finally come to an end in the coming 4 weeks.

Not if a deal doesn’t get done in the next few weeks. And we have no idea how close they are to a deal. Then it’s essentially a 2 year window since the earliest he can play for Team X is October.

 

[lanky]

Not if a deal doesn’t get done in the next few weeks. And we have no idea how close they are to a deal. Then it’s essentially a 2 year window since the earliest he can play for Team X is October.

He's available now.

 

[bucks_oil]

He's available now.

I think the point is that this year is the first time teams might be able to squeeze a bit on the asking price... it all depends on who is in the market and willing to get even close to the, now two years old, asking price.

 

[rocketdan9]

1st and top prospect is what Zona is looking for?

 

[hbk]

1st and top prospect is what Zona is looking for?

2 x 1sts and a 2nd or equivalent prospect

 

[rocketdan9]

2 x 1sts and a 2nd or equivalent prospect

Whats the diff between this and 1st and high rated prospect?

 

[Habs Halifax]

All I'm going to say is if they don't move Chychrun at this deadline, his trade value gets a bit less with 2 years left vs 3 playoff runs.

Coyotes can't delay it too much longer if they are after futures.

Whats the diff between this and 1st and high rated prospect?

The 1st is unknown as a 17 year old and the high rated prospect is likely in the 18-21 age range tending well.

1st and top prospect is what Zona is looking for?

Looks like 3 pieces close to 1st round value. Basically a 1st for each playoff run he has left on his contract which is this season and two more. It is a value contract for a young legit top 4D so I don't blame them for setting the price like that.

 

[hbk]

Whats the diff between this and 1st and high rated prospect?

there's 2 first round picks and a prospect. Or a 1st, top prospect, and a 2nd. it's 3 pieces total.

 

[belair]

I think some team will take JP for free or very low value, giving him a test drive with the expectation he won’t be qualified. That team flipping JP at 50% for an asset to another team makes no sense. Any third team won’t care about the 50% cap/salary discount at that point in the season. That third team would have the cap space and the salary saving is negligible.

Frank Seravalli has Tampa as a potential landing spot for JP. If Detroit dealt for him and decided to retain 50% while also taking back Namestnikov. That makes a lot of sense.

Detroit is out of it, they have knowledge of Namestnikov's game and he's another player who would potentially be flipped at the deadline.

Tampa needs deadline cap flexibility and they lack depth on right wing.

 

[rocketdan9]

there's 2 first round picks and a prospect. Or a 1st, top prospect, and a 2nd. it's 3 pieces total.

Thats an overask robbery

I can get 1st and top prospect or two 1sts

But that extra... for a guy that lives in the IR quarter the time. There is durability question if I'm a GM

 

[hbk]

Thats an overask robbery

I can get 1st and top prospect or two 1sts

But that extra... for a guy that lives in the IR quarter the time. There is durability question if I'm a GM

I'm not Bill Armstrong. That's his established ask and has been for several months now. If a team doesn't want to pay it then fine. He will wait. He did this to get the ask on Dvorak and Keumper.

 

[rocketdan9]

I'm not Bill Armstrong. That's his established ask and has been for several months now. If a team doesn't want to pay it then fine. He will wait. He did this to get the ask on Dvorak and Keumper.

DA got no one to bite last trade deadline for Chyc

And its the same story currently...except one less year on his contract (or half a season less)

He is still producing/a top 4 D... but the "time off" aspect still continues. Its difficult to know if he is partially made of glass or over pre caution by the team