Christian Ehrhoff

[sabregoat]

I have read many threads both on this board and the main trade board that many people feel that Christian Ehrhoff is un tradable due to his recapture penalty. Why are people so afraid of the penalty? If I understand it correctly, if he retires early than his penalty would be 10,000,000 divided over the remaining years. If he retires 3 years early, it is 3.33 for 3 years. In 2019 it is 5.0 for 2 years and 2020 it is 10 for the last season. Yes, 10 mill is a lot for one season but is is worht the risk? The salary cap should be alot higher by then. 3.33 and 5.0 should ne asily absorbed. 10 mil may be tough?

The parameters are:
Is his value received in a trade worht the risk. I keep seeing a first and a very good prospect plus. Seven years of service verse 1 10 mil hit.

He may not retire.

We may be in the middle of another rebuild in 7 years and may need the cap hit to hit the cap floor.

If we get a hit, and we are over the cap, would a trade to get under the cap bring back enough to load up on more prospets?

Would his value to the Sabres be higher in 3-4 years than his trade value is now? With Myers, Zads, Risto, Psyk, McCabe, Mcnabb, etc coming into their prime in three years, Do we need Ehrhoff?

In short, if some team comes calliing, I would not be afraid of the recapture as long as the trade brings back much needed assets.

Click to read more...

 

[Jacob582]

His NMC complicates a trade.

 

[ReNeGaDe87]

quick guide for those wondering what the hell OP is talking about


penalties/http://http://thehockeyguys.net/ilya-kovalchuk-a-brief-guide-to-cap-recapture-penalties/

 

[Djp]

I have read many threads both on this board and the main trade board that many people feel that Christian Ehrhoff is un tradable due to his recapture penalty. Why are people so afraid of the penalty? If I understand it correctly, if he retires early than his penalty would be 10,000,000 divided over the remaining years. If he retires 3 years early, it is 3.33 for 3 years. In 2019 it is 5.0 for 2 years and 2020 it is 10 for the last season. Yes, 10 mill is a lot for one season but is is worht the risk? The salary cap should be alot higher by then. 3.33 and 5.0 should ne asily absorbed. 10 mil may be tough?

The parameters are:
Is his value received in a trade worht the risk. I keep seeing a first and a very good prospect plus. Seven years of service verse 1 10 mil hit.

He may not retire..

If he retires in Buffalo or Buffalo buys him out its

$10M spread over the final years of the contract equally + buy out amount spread over twice the number of years left.

As he plays out the contract the years salary<cap hit reduces the $10M recapture where in 17/18 it goes down to $9M, then last 3 years it decreases by $3M each year.

So to buy him out when the $1M per years start in 2018 the buy out amount is $333,333 each over 6 yrs + $9M over 3 years. wait another year it $333,333 each over 4 years + $6M over 2 years.


Buffalo likely buys him out in 2018 or 2019. Either way his recapture/buy out cap hit will be less than the current $4m cap hit.

We may be in the middle of another rebuild in 7 years and may need the cap hit to hit the cap floor.

If we get a hit, and we are over the cap, would a trade to get under the cap bring back enough to load up on more prospets?

Would his value to the Sabres be higher in 3-4 years than his trade value is now? With Myers, Zads, Risto, Psyk, McCabe, Mcnabb, etc coming into their prime in three years, Do we need Ehrhoff?

In short, if some team comes calliing, I would not be afraid of the recapture as long as the trade brings back much needed assets.

in 7 years Buffalo will not be rebuilding again.

The 2012-2015 draft picks will be geting there big salaried contracts (either 2nd or 3rd contracts).

If drafting goes as planned and player develop this team should be a perenial playoff team and cup contender. As a result they will need to spec to near the cap. a $10 M cap hit will hurt big.

What i have said before---Buffalo can add to any trade a conditional 1st in 2019 to buffalo if they do not buy out Ehrhoff in 2018 or he retires by then thus allowing recapture to be just $3.33M each over 3 years.

 

[haseoke39]

Well, if blowing a $10M hole in your roster in the middle of the period when you're supposed to be contending for the cup doesn't scare you,

 

[Rhett4]

There's absolutely no way they trade him with that recapture penalty. You simply can't risk it. Can you plan for a 10M hole in your budget if he retires one year early? No...especially since they will presumably be pretty good then and owe some talented young players a lot of money.

They have two options. Panic and buy him out this summer. Or keep him, give him a traditional buyout down the line, and eat some dead space (but no where near 10M). I expect they do the second and buy him out with a few years remaining.

 

[dotcommunism]

They have two options. Panic and buy him out this summer. Or keep him, give him a traditional buyout down the line, and eat some dead space (but no where near 10M). I expect they do the second and buy him out with a few years remaining.

There's no reason for them to use a traditional buyout on Ehrhoff during the last few years of his contract. The cap hit involved with the buyout would be higher than his recapture penalty (plus they'd be paying him for the buyout)

 

[sabregoat]

If he retires with 12 year remaining - that is six years from now. We should be contending but six years ago, did we expect to be rebuilding. No, the Rochester core will make us contenders done he road. We expect to be contending. But every team does with their draft picks. He can bring back at least a first and a top prospect. We have at least 3 more 1st's in the next 2 drafts. Probably get another by trading one of the big 3. With what we have now and the next few drafts, we can afford to move a big piece if we had to in 6 years for more 1st's and prospects. We will have so many peices that we can keep reloading. Teams find a way esp if the salary cap is between 80 and 90. If we are contending in 2 years and 3 years and four years and five years. I can live with having to trade one player making 6-7 mil.

 

[Djp]

There's no reason for them to use a traditional buyout on Ehrhoff during the last few years of his contract. The cap hit involved with the buyout would be higher than his recapture penalty (plus they'd be paying him for the buyout)

with 4 yrs left or less the buy out amount per year aginst the cap would be at or below $500,000 per year---this is nothing.


4 yrs left $10M recapture $6M owed $4M cap hit
----- $4M buyout over 8 years $10M spread over 4 years. max cap hit $3.5M
3 yrs left $9M recapture $3M owed $4M cap hit
----- $2M buyout over 6 years $9M spread over 3 years. max cap hit $3.3M
2 yrs left $6M recapture $2M owed $4M cap hit
----- $1.33M buyout over 4 years $6M spread over 2 years. max cap hit $3.3M
1 yrs left $3M recapture $1M owed $4M cap hit
----- $0.67M buyout over 2 years $3M spread over 1 years. max cap hit $3.3M


All lower than the $4M cap hit with his current contract.

 

[Djp]

If he retires with 12 year remaining - that is six years from now. We should be contending but six years ago, did we expect to be rebuilding. No, the Rochester core will make us contenders done he road. We expect to be contending. But every team does with their draft picks. He can bring back at least a first and a top prospect. We have at least 3 more 1st's in the next 2 drafts. Probably get another by trading one of the big 3. With what we have now and the next few drafts, we can afford to move a big piece if we had to in 6 years for more 1st's and prospects. We will have so many peices that we can keep reloading. Teams find a way esp if the salary cap is between 80 and 90. If we are contending in 2 years and 3 years and four years and five years. I can live with having to trade one player making 6-7 mil.

You obviously dont seem to understand the risk of recapture if he is traded and the worst case scenario and how it could strap a competing team having to take on $10M ( which will likely be > 10% of the cap space.


Getting all those 1st round picks in 2014 and 2015 means some of them become valueable players.

someone 18 or 19 in 2015 will be 24 in 2020/2021 and at that time they will be looking to get their 2nd or 3rd contract. If this draft is successful and Buffalo selects some real quality players Buffalo will want to sign them to long term contracts similar to Myers and Hodgson making $4.5M or more---if they are bonafide star you are talking $8M per kind of money.


buffalo cant waste $6.5M or more in deadspace. If they are cap tight teams will be oversheeting Buffalo.

If they have current players under control the $6.5M could be used to go out and sign say a missing UFA piece for the team for a cup run.

 

[dotcommunism]

with 4 yrs left or less the buy out amount per year aginst the cap would be at or below $500,000 per year---this is nothing.

What? No. The cap hit for buying him out is about $3M+ per year he'd be under contract, and then a small amount for the equivalent number of years thereafter. More than the cap hit would be for recapture.

All lower than the $4M cap hit with his current contract.

Who's talking about that? I was talking about the buyout cap hit versus the recapture penalty

 

[Zman5778]

There's absolutely no way they trade him with that recapture penalty. You simply can't risk it. Can you plan for a 10M hole in your budget if he retires one year early? No...especially since they will presumably be pretty good then and owe some talented young players a lot of money.

They have two options. Panic and buy him out this summer. Or keep him, give him a traditional buyout down the line, and eat some dead space (but no where near 10M). I expect they do the second and buy him out with a few years remaining.

This is pretty much it in a nutshell.

Ehrhoff is absolutely here for the long haul. That possibility of a $10 mil cap hit just as some young players might be due some nice raises is wayyyyy too prohibitive right now.

 

[ZZamboni]

I must be in the minority. I think for the cap hit Ehrhoff is, He's a nice piece to have on the back end. He doesn't suck defensively. He's a pretty smart player. He may not be an offensive dynamo, but he doesn't suck either. He's certainly not mistake free, but for the price, you could do worse, A LOT worse than Ehrhoff. At this point I don't want to trade him or entertain offers for him. Unless of course it's an offer too good to refuse

 

[FamilyGuy716]

Well, if blowing a $10M hole in your roster in the middle of the period when you're supposed to be contending for the cup doesn't scare you,

Exactly!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[ZeroPT*]

By the time this team SHOULD be competing, a penalty of 5M+ could be disastrous. You saw what Chicago had to do with Ladd and Buff, it would be even more for us.

 

[sabregoat]

If we keep him and buy him out after 2017-2018 season, his buyout cap hit would be 3.33 for 3 years and .333 for 3 years. After 2018-2019, it would be 3.33 for 2 and .333 for 2. After 2019-2020 it would be 3.33 for one and .333 for 1

If we keep him and he retires after 2017-2018, the recapture is 3.0 for 3 years. after 2018-2019 it is 3.0 for 2 years. after 2019-2020, 3.0 for 1 year.

If we trade him and he retires after 2017-2018, the recapture is 3.33 for 3 years. after 2018-2019, it is 5.0 for 2 years, after 2019-2020, it is 10 mil for one.


If he plays out his contract, we lose nothing. If he does not finish his contract, it will cost between 3.00 and 10.00 no matter what.

If we trade him, the max difference is 7.0 million more. We would probably have to trade only 1 guy and would get a good return. A good return to trade him and a good return if we had to trade someone later will keep an influx of talent coming.

Chicago had to dump after winning the cup but won the cup three later.

 

[sabregoat]

By the time this team SHOULD be competing, a penalty of 5M+ could be disastrous. You saw what Chicago had to do with Ladd and Buff, it would be even more for us.

Chicago won three years later. Why would it be more for us. We will most likely already have to pay at least 3.0

Pegula is also putting a lot of money into the scouting dept and player development which means he should always be able to plug in a younger guy if he has to trade an older one.

 

[Eram]

By the time this team SHOULD be competing, a penalty of 5M+ could be disastrous. You saw what Chicago had to do with Ladd and Buff, it would be even more for us.

And they were able to ship out their high paid defenseman in Campbell to Florida. That 3.5M cap hit with a rising cap is equivalent to a 2.75/3M hit today. That's what, a 3rd line winger?

 

[JLewyB]

What? No. The cap hit for buying him out is about $3M+ per year he'd be under contract, and then a small amount for the equivalent number of years thereafter. More than the cap hit would be for recapture.



Who's talking about that? I was talking about the buyout cap hit versus the recapture penalty

Yeah if he stays on the team there is no reason to use a conventional buyout at any point. The recapture penalty would be less of a cap hit per year then a buyout.

It looks like Ehrhoff has a limited NMC so there is the potential for a trade. I have suggested having a gentlemen's agreement where the other team uses a compliance buyout to end the contract at the end of the season with a contingency where he gets bought out down the road if he gets injured.

Using Pegula bucks...something like

Ehrhoff+Cash(to help with Compliance buyout) for X(multiple draft pick and/or high quality prospect(s))

 

[Djp]

What? No. The cap hit for buying him out is about $3M+ per year he'd be under contract, and then a small amount for the equivalent number of years thereafter. More than the cap hit would be for recapture.



Who's talking about that? I was talking about the buyout cap hit versus the recapture penalty

There are two pieces ------

1. the buy out which is 2/3 the amount he is left to earn in the contract spread out over twice the number of years.

When he has

4 yrs left he is due $6M 2/3 of this is $4M spread evenly over 8 yrs or $500,000 per
3 yrs.....$3M 2/3 of this is $2M spread over 6 yrs or $333,333 per
2 yrs.....$2M 2/3 of this is $1.33M spread over 4 yrs or $333,333 per
1 yr......$1M 2/3 of this is $1M spread over 2 yrs or $333,333 per

2. The second part is the recapture of the $10M front loaded in the contract that needs to get accounted for.

This is account for based on the difference of cap hit vs paid salary

With 4 yrs left....its $1M, $3M,$3M, $3M for each yr
With 3 yrs left....Its $3M, $3M, $3M for each yr
With 2 yrs left....Its $3M, $3M for each yr
With 1 yrs left....Its $3M for each yr



The cap hit is adding the 2 of these amounts.

 

[JLewyB]

There are two pieces ------

1. the buy out which is 2/3 the amount he is left to earn in the contract spread out over twice the number of years.

When he has

4 yrs left he is due $6M 2/3 of this is $4M spread evenly over 8 yrs or $500,000 per
3 yrs.....$3M 2/3 of this is $2M spread over 6 yrs or $333,333 per
2 yrs.....$2M 2/3 of this is $1.33M spread over 4 yrs or $333,333 per
1 yr......$1M 2/3 of this is $1M spread over 2 yrs or $333,333 per

2. The second part is the recapture of the $10M front loaded in the contract that needs to get accounted for.

This is account for based on the difference of cap hit vs paid salary

With 4 yrs left....its $1M, $3M,$3M, $3M for each yr
With 3 yrs left....Its $3M, $3M, $3M for each yr
With 2 yrs left....Its $3M, $3M for each yr
With 1 yrs left....Its $3M for each yr



The cap hit is adding the 2 of these amounts.

Is this the cap hit or the salary paid?

 

[sabregoat]

Add part one to part two and that would be the cap hit.

example with 3 years remaining: part one is .333 and part two is 3.0 for a total cap hit of 3.33 per year for three years and then a bonus cap hit of part one(.333) for the same length of time(3 more years)

 

[JLewyB]

Add part one to part two and that would be the cap hit.

example with 3 years remaining: part one is .333 and part two is 3.0 for a total cap hit of 3.33 per year for three years

I see

 

[Djp]

If we keep him and buy him out after 2017-2018 season, his buyout cap hit would be 3.33 for 3 years and .333 for 3 years. After 2018-2019, it would be 3.33 for 2 and .333 for 2. After 2019-2020 it would be 3.33 for one and .333 for 1

If we keep him and he retires after 2017-2018, the recapture is 3.0 for 3 years. after 2018-2019 it is 3.0 for 2 years. after 2019-2020, 3.0 for 1 year.

If we trade him and he retires after 2017-2018, the recapture is 3.33 for 3 years. after 2018-2019, it is 5.0 for 2 years, after 2019-2020, it is 10 mil for one.


If he plays out his contract, we lose nothing. If he does not finish his contract, it will cost between 3.00 and 10.00 no matter what.

If we trade him, the max difference is 7.0 million more. We would probably have to trade only 1 guy and would get a good return. A good return to trade him and a good return if we had to trade someone later will keep an influx of talent coming.

Chicago had to dump after winning the cup but won the cup three later.

That $6-7M will force Buffalo to dump 2-3 players and they wont get their max return because everyone knows the problem.

the other problem is that at this time you will have 2nd and 3rd contracts due to a few of their young, key RFAs. Thus they will be prime for the offersheet.

 

[Ethan Edwards]

I must be in the minority. I think for the cap hit Ehrhoff is, He's a nice piece to have on the back end. He doesn't suck defensively. He's a pretty smart player. He may not be an offensive dynamo, but he doesn't suck either. He's certainly not mistake free, but for the price, you could do worse, A LOT worse than Ehrhoff. At this point I don't want to trade him or entertain offers for him. Unless of course it's an offer too good to refuse.

Add me to the minority. In terms of offensive dynamo, if you put him on a more offensively skilled team, I think you get the Ehrhoff we've seen in the past.