TSN: Chris Johnston breaks down what draft picks TOR has left

[Pebble live]

I'd like to see some 2023 picks recouped somewhere along the line. I believe this team needs to add to the D core if there's going to be a big run this season but we can't be moving much out in 2023 or 2024 at this point.

I'm not sure if Kerfoot can get us much back but I'd like to see him moved for some late round picks in 2023. Give the scouts something to work with while trying to find a balance between winning now and still having something for the future.

 

[cyris]

I understand where you're coming from and I'm not offended, I just don't believe you understand the severity of a brain tumour.

I understand the severity. This kid has an incredibly difficult fight on his hands but no one on a message board should be determining his future especially without any inside knowledge of his medical condition.
Even if you are ultimately right there was no good reason to say it.

 

[Stephen]

We have to remember that picks do matter a lot over the course of a contending window, and some good work will need to be done in the 2025 and 2026 drafts to keep the party going.

Boston is always held up as this great example, but one of the big reasons its outlasted LA and Chicago and Pittsburgh is because they hit on McAvoy and Pastrnak late into the Bergeron-Marchand era. We also gifted them Seguin and Hamilton while they entered their cup winning year. They also had a mini retool in 2015 but squandered their 3x 1sts.

You can definitely trade your picks out but we'll need a couple of major impact additions through the draft eventually.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Leafs control Nylander and Matthews for the next two playoffs.

Of course, if either or both leave, the Leafs have that cap space, to go shopping.

If both re-sign, their young defenders will all be a year more experienced, and their top prospect will all be a year older.

The missing picks become relevant 2026 at the earliest, and considering their picks are going to be (unless disaster happens) late 20's.

Leafs are all in for the next 2-3 years, and if they get re-signs from their core, drafts that have already taken place are going to be their coming of age assets.

Current picks are currency.

If we re-sign O’Rielly and Acciari for reasonable numbers I’m happy with the move this year. If they walk I’d be mad that we didn’t hold on to more draft capital to go truly all-in next year when Boston, Tampa, NYR will all be weaker and have no draft capital left to compete with us at the deadline.

There’s value in drafting a Knies that has his stock go up from a mid 2nd to probably a first in the low 20s now. Even if he doesn’t play for your team within 3 years, the value on that pick went from being a centrepiece to a bottom pairing D rental to being a potential centrepiece in a Meier level deal in 2 years. Main reason I was hoping we wouldn’t trade Minten, even if he doesn’t ever play a game for us, he has 2nd round pick value now but might have mid-late 1st value next year if he has a big season with Stankoven and Bankier not taking all the prime offensive minutes. Hopefully guys like Niemela, Hirvonen, Holmberg etc have similar leaps in value to keep us dangerous at the deadline next year.

 

[Judas Tavares]

We have to remember that picks do matter a lot over the course of a contending window, and some good work will need to be done in the 2025 and 2026 drafts to keep the party going.

Boston is always held up as this great example, but one of the big reasons its outlasted LA and Chicago and Pittsburgh is because they hit on McAvoy and Pastrnak late into the Bergeron-Marchand era. We also gifted them Seguin and Hamilton while they entered their cup winning year. They also had a mini retool in 2015 but squandered their 3x 1sts.

You can definitely trade your picks out but we'll need a couple of major impact additions through the draft eventually.

Agreed. Tampa made the Cup Final in 2015. At that deadline, they didn't go out and trade a prospect named Brayden Point, They lose the Cup and 2 weeks later still have 9 picks where they selected Anthony Cirelli and Mathieu Joseph. A year later while still very competitive, they draft Brett Howden, Boris Katchouk, Taylor Raddysh and Ross Colton.

I'm not saying contenders shouldn't trade picks. Of course they should. But there also needs to be a balance. I like the O'Reilly trade a lot but after that trade, anything else going out essentially becomes draft schmaft. That isn't sustainable. Throwing out the 2024 or 2025 1sts in particular would also be incredibly risky and irresponsible. I want a cup too, but there needs to be a balance of how you acquire assets. I'd like them to go for it but also be able to sustain something for a long time. Other contenders have done it, there's no reason why the Leafs can't.

 

[sxvnert]

As he explained last night AZ selected TOR's 2025 2nd round pick as part of the Nick Ritchie/Boosh deal.

What's left?

2023
3rd, 5th, and 6th

2024
1st, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 7th

2025
1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th


How likely will Dubas use some of what's left?

The 2023 draft is almost bare. Who can Dubas move to recover all those missing picks?

Nice filler article. Tell Johnson we all have access to capfriendly.

 

[ToneDog]

If we re-sign O’Rielly and Acciari for reasonable numbers I’m happy with the move this year. If they walk I’d be mad that we didn’t hold on to more draft capital to go truly all-in next year when Boston, Tampa, NYR will all be weaker and have no draft capital left to compete with us at the deadline.

There’s value in drafting a Knies that has his stock go up from a mid 2nd to probably a first in the low 20s now. Even if he doesn’t play for your team within 3 years, the value on that pick went from being a centrepiece to a bottom pairing D rental to being a potential centrepiece in a Meier level deal in 2 years. Main reason I was hoping we wouldn’t trade Minten, even if he doesn’t ever play a game for us, he has 2nd round pick value now but might have mid-late 1st value next year if he has a big season with Stankoven and Bankier not taking all the prime offensive minutes. Hopefully guys like Niemela, Hirvonen, Holmberg etc have similar leaps in value to keep us dangerous at the deadline next year.

Careful, I was told that is loser mentality.

 

[therealkoho]

Maple leafs page on capfriendly tells you the same things

Check out St Lou or AZ, both of them are loaded up

Could care less. I want playoff success and a cup. We have our young core and they are going into their prime.

We cant waste Mathew's prime years

Matthews will definitely help the Leafs win a cup, if played right

 

[ULF_55]

If we re-sign O’Rielly and Acciari for reasonable numbers I’m happy with the move this year. If they walk I’d be mad that we didn’t hold on to more draft capital to go truly all-in next year when Boston, Tampa, NYR will all be weaker and have no draft capital left to compete with us at the deadline.

There’s value in drafting a Knies that has his stock go up from a mid 2nd to probably a first in the low 20s now. Even if he doesn’t play for your team within 3 years, the value on that pick went from being a centrepiece to a bottom pairing D rental to being a potential centrepiece in a Meier level deal in 2 years. Main reason I was hoping we wouldn’t trade Minten, even if he doesn’t ever play a game for us, he has 2nd round pick value now but might have mid-late 1st value next year if he has a big season with Stankoven and Bankier not taking all the prime offensive minutes. Hopefully guys like Niemela, Hirvonen, Holmberg etc have similar leaps in value to keep us dangerous at the deadline next year.

I'm hoping they find a way to re-sign O'Rielly first.

Then Acciari slides in with other re-signs.

 

[Ianturnedbull]

Nice filler article. Tell Johnson we all have access to capfriendly.

Yeah but we are in a discussion about Toronto's draft picks and how they might pertain to this moment leading up to the trade deadline. Perhaps I shall add that to the OP, but I am not posting this to say that Johnston has information and we don't.

 

[Stephen]

I'm hoping the find a way to re-sign O'Rielly first.

Then Acciari slides in with other re-signs.

Maybe the 2023-24 forward group can look something like this:

Matthews
Marner
Nylander
Tavares
O'Reilly
Bunting
Knies
Acciari
Holmberg
Kapanen (UFA reclamation)
McMann
Steeves

Not sure what Kampf, Engvall would cost in terms of pay raise. Kerfoot would definitely take a pay cut. But do we want him back.

But does it kind of come down to O'Reilly OR Bunting?

 

[ULF_55]

Maybe the 2023-24 forward group can look something like this:

Matthews
Marner
Nylander
Tavares
O'Reilly
Bunting
Knies
Acciari
Holmberg
Kapanen (UFA reclamation)
McMann
Steeves

Not sure what Kampf, Engvall would cost in terms of pay raise. Kerfoot would definitely take a pay cut. But do we want him back.

But does it kind of come down to O'Reilly OR Bunting?

I'd take O'Rielly easily over Bunting.

Nothing against Bunting, but he is a complementary player.

 

[Stephen]

I'd take O'Rielly easily over Bunting.

Nothing against Bunting, but he is a complementary player.

Knies could replace Bunting if it came to that.

 

[TheRumble]

The Leafs have had a pretty good history of turning late round picks into NHL players. My thought is that they're gonna come to rely on those picks more often in the future and rely on reclamation projects for the next few years.

Zach Hyman - 5th rounder that we traded for.

Connor Brown - 6th rounder

Andreas Johnsson and Pierre Engvall - 7th rounders

Trevor Moore and Mason Marchement - Undrafted free agents

That's 6 NHLers all produced from nothing but 5th round picks or later by the Marlies.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

I think that 3rd is gone, and hopefully that 5th and 6th too, I don't care if they make a single pick in the up coming draft.

And honestly if you can make the team better I'd move the 2024 and 2025 1st too.

This is a got for it year let's go.

 

[WildWolfdog]

I really don't care about the picks especially the 2023 picks.

Right now the core is still in its prime and picks will do jack-all for us. If/when the time comes to blow it up or re-tool, they have more than enough quality players to send out for picks in the future.

 

[29Potvin]

I think that 3rd is gone, and hopefully that 5th and 6th too, I don't care if they make a single pick in the up coming draft.

And honestly if you can make the team better I'd move the 2024 and 2025 1st too.

This is a got for it year let's go.

I hope we leave Holl/Kerfoot in Seattle were they should be already!

 

[CatchyTune]

Someone said this on reddit regarding the raptors trading their 2024 1st for Poeltl.

Would you rather have a late 1st round rookie in Pascal Siakams age 31 season or a great center right now?

This parallels to the Leafs and even applies to them more. The core’s contracts expire in the next 3 offseasons and anyone drafted this year or next likely wont be on the team during the next 2 seasons.

Would you rather have a great player right now, or a late 1st round rookie in Auston Matthews’ age 29 season, if he is even here?

 

[hamzarocks]

Picks come and go, not an issue.
Leafs need fewer picks than most teams anyway.
Has Dubas ever made a bad pick?

Stotts, SDA, Abramov

 

[AllDay28]

people's obsession with lottery tickets definitely explains why gambling companies make so much money

 

[cupcrazyman2]

Draft Schmaft !

 

[TDotMassive]

As he explained last night AZ selected TOR's 2025 2nd round pick as part of the Nick Ritchie/Boosh deal.

What's left?

2023
3rd, 5th, and 6th

2024
1st, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 7th

2025
1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th


How likely will Dubas use some of what's left?

The 2023 draft is almost bare. Who can Dubas move to recover all those missing picks?

***** a discussion about Toronto's draft picks and how they might pertain to this moment leading up to the trade deadline. *****

Draft Shmaft

I'd like to see some 2023 picks recouped somewhere along the line. I believe this team needs to add to the D core if there's going to be a big run this season but we can't be moving much out in 2023 or 2024 at this point.

I'm not sure if Kerfoot can get us much back but I'd like to see him moved for some late round picks in 2023. Give the scouts something to work with while trying to find a balance between winning now and still having something for the future.

You care about 2023 draft picks?? Trade them all, who cares... trade Kerfoot and Engvall if needed too... just put together the best possible group of players to win the cup this season or next. All-in.

 

[Bomber0104]

Let's be honest, a lame-duck GM fighting for his life while trying to rationalize his entire career in Toronto to a board that is wondering why we haven't seen a playoff win in 6 years under mostly his stewardship needs ZERO draft picks to achieve the very, very, short-term goals he has.

Sorry for the run-on sentence.

 

[nuck]

Picks come and go, not an issue.
Leafs need fewer picks than most teams anyway.
Has Dubas ever made a bad pick?

They probably need a few more making the NHL before that statement is accurate. He didn't own the drafts before 2018 so he is basically riding on Sandin as his actual output. I like a bunch of them but they aren't on the team yet.

 

[darrylsittler27]

They are all gone. Total scorched earth.

Traded • Ryan O'Reilly • Noel Acciari in a 3-team trade with Maple Leafs, Wild for • Adam Gaudette • Mikhail Abramov • 2023 first round pick (from Maple Leafs) (?-?) • 2023 third round pick (Senators pick from Maple Leafs) (?-?) • 2024 second round pick (from Maple Leafs) (?-?) on 2023-02-17
Round 2
Maple Leafs	Kraken Traded • Mark Giordano • Colin Blackwell to Maple Leafs for • 2022 second round pick (#58-Niklas Kokko) • 2023 second round pick (?-?) • 2024 third round pick (?-?) on 2022-03-20
Round 3
Maple Leafs	Coyotes (Coyotes choice of 2023 third round pick or 2025 second round pick) PICK MAY OR MAY NOT TRANSFER DEPENDING ON COYOTES CHOICE Traded • Ryan Dzingel • Ilya Lyubushkin to Maple Leafs for • Nick Ritchie • draft pick (Coyotes choice of 2023 third round pick or 2025 second round pick) (?-?) on 2022-02-19
Senators	Maple Leafs Traded • future considerations (?) to Senators for • Matt Murray • 2023 third round pick (?-?) • 2024 seventh round pick (?-?) on 2022-07-11	Blues Traded • Ryan O'Reilly • Noel Acciari in a 3-team trade with Maple Leafs, Wild for • Adam Gaudette • Mikhail Abramov • 2023 first round pick (from Maple Leafs) (?-?) • 2023 third round pick (Senators pick from Maple Leafs) (?-?) • 2024 second round pick (from Maple Leafs) (?-?) on 2023-02-17
Round 4
Maple Leafs	Predators Traded • 2022 fourth round pick (#122-Dennis Hildeby) to Maple Leafs for • 2023 fourth round pick (?-?) on 2022-07-08

They are all gone. Total scorched earth.

Traded • Ryan O'Reilly • Noel Acciari in a 3-team trade with Maple Leafs, Wild for • Adam Gaudette • Mikhail Abramov • 2023 first round pick (from Maple Leafs) (?-?) • 2023 third round pick (Senators pick from Maple Leafs) (?-?) • 2024 second round pick (from Maple Leafs) (?-?) on 2023-02-17
Round 2
Maple Leafs	Kraken Traded • Mark Giordano • Colin Blackwell to Maple Leafs for • 2022 second round pick (#58-Niklas Kokko) • 2023 second round pick (?-?) • 2024 third round pick (?-?) on 2022-03-20
Round 3
Maple Leafs	Coyotes (Coyotes choice of 2023 third round pick or 2025 second round pick) PICK MAY OR MAY NOT TRANSFER DEPENDING ON COYOTES CHOICE Traded • Ryan Dzingel • Ilya Lyubushkin to Maple Leafs for • Nick Ritchie • draft pick (Coyotes choice of 2023 third round pick or 2025 second round pick) (?-?) on 2022-02-19
Senators	Maple Leafs Traded • future considerations (?) to Senators for • Matt Murray • 2023 third round pick (?-?) • 2024 seventh round pick (?-?) on 2022-07-11	Blues Traded • Ryan O'Reilly • Noel Acciari in a 3-team trade with Maple Leafs, Wild for • Adam Gaudette • Mikhail Abramov • 2023 first round pick (from Maple Leafs) (?-?) • 2023 third round pick (Senators pick from Maple Leafs) (?-?) • 2024 second round pick (from Maple Leafs) (?-?) on 2023-02-17
Round 4
Maple Leafs	Predators Traded • 2022 fourth round pick (#122-Dennis Hildeby) to Maple Leafs for • 2023 fourth round pick (?-?) on 2022-07-08

Absolutely brutal and after Knies the prospects aren't worth much to anyone. if we lose first round it is safe to say the Dubas era will be called "garbage" and a whole new build will begin.