Changes needed to win a Cup in 5 years

[HamiltonNHL]

How long did the Islanders rebuild take? That's the realistic one to look at.

They last were in the Stanley cup final in 1984.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_New_York_Islanders_seasons

Lately,
They missed the playoffs for 5 straight years.
Then have made the playoffs in 2 of the 3 last years.

Did they blow up their core like the Leafs might do ?

 

[DesertHombre]

I don't think there is a fool proof formula or that one way is better than the next to do a rebuild or re-tool of an NHL team. But the teams that are competing for the Stanley Cup and who are successful in the playoffs usually have a some key elements.
A coach who implements a system that the players buy into and creates a chemistry between teammates where every player is appreciated and has a role. A leadership core that wants to win and is in the game for more than just money. Depth on defence and on forward where the coach can be confident with any defensive pairing and any line on the ice. And at least one or two stud defencemen along with a first line of forwards that is lead by a good power centerman. Finally a goaltender who the team believes will bail them out when needed.
This is all a very tall order and the Leafs have only a spattering of this on their team right now. Who they chose as GM will be the catylist of this rebuild. Then let the new GM help choose a coach who they feel they can work with and can lead this team. Morgan Reilly has the makings of a great offensive defenseman, but they need to replace Dion phaneuf with another big bodied, defensive defenceman who will anchor the team. The hardest thing to find will be a true 1st line centerman who can create space and lead the offence.
In other words they need a Shea Weber/Chris Pronger type defenceman and a John Tavares/Patrice Bergeron type of centerman.
Size, speed and power still rules.

 

[johnnybbadd]

This year it looks like we are getting a centre at 4 and obviously Mcdavid if we win the lottery at 1. That player must become a top tier #1. We would have to hit on every 1st round pick the next 3 years plus Reilly and Nylander would have to develop into 1st pairing/1st line players. We then could rely on free agency to do whats its meant to do and find good role players instead of trying to find elite players there.
Finding good pieces in any Kessel or Phaneuf trade would help tremendously. Kadri JVR and Gardiner improve if not moved to fill out our secondary scoring and provide leadership as by then they would be veteran players.

 

[jmart21]

This year it looks like we are getting a centre at 4 and obviously Mcdavid if we win the lottery at 1. That player must become a top tier #1. We would have to hit on every 1st round pick the next 3 years plus Reilly and Nylander would have to develop into 1st pairing/1st line players. We then could rely on free agency to do whats its meant to do and find good role players instead of trying to find elite players there.
Finding good pieces in any Kessel or Phaneuf trade would help tremendously. Kadri JVR and Gardiner improve if not moved to fill out our secondary scoring and provide leadership as by then they would be veteran players.

I agree, we need to hit our 1st rounders out of the park.

But i don't understand the "next 3 years" reference.
-It's quite outrageous to expect Nylander to be a top line player within 3 years.
-We need to hit ALL rounds of the draft. You can't count on free agency to fill out your lineup. Finding players to fill those roles with later picks is what separates the track records of teams like CHI and LAK vs. EDM.

 

[Diatomic]

Reilly's age doesn't matter. We aren't re-tooling to build a team around a young guy we already have. We're talking a full organizational tear down and rebuild. It's not going to be playoffs in 3 years.

It's going to take as long as it does and IMO at least 2 ELC cycles until we start to see what we might have on our hands.


People like to knock the oilers, but it's been what 5yrs since they openly admitted to a rebuild?

It could be, look at Calgary their already in the playoffs and their rebuild started when, 3 years ago?

We've already got some nice pieces, Nylander will be a #1 Winger or center, Brown could be a 2nd line winger, Kadri seems well slotted at #2C, Rielly will be a top 2 D, and we are going to get a top pairing D-man or #1C/#1Winger with our 2015 1st. Not saying their all going to achieve their potentials in 3 years but I'd say its 3 years till we hit the playoffs again

 

[Durrr]

Reilly's age doesn't matter. We aren't re-tooling to build a team around a young guy we already have. We're talking a full organizational tear down and rebuild. It's not going to be playoffs in 3 years.

It's going to take as long as it does and IMO at least 2 ELC cycles until we start to see what we might have on our hands.


People like to knock the oilers, but it's been what 5yrs since they openly admitted to a rebuild?

We sure as hell are building around players on the roster, or do you think the plan to keep players like Rielly, JVR (likley), Bernier, Gardiner, Kadri etc are just for kicks while we lose? The rebuild started the year we drafted Rielly, we just didn't know it.

This team has every intention of getting competitive in 3-5 years, much like the Islanders, Lightning, Florida have done in the last 5 years. Comparing anything to Edmonton is a joke, they suck out loud.

 

[johnnybbadd]

I agree, we need to hit our 1st rounders out of the park.

But i don't understand the "next 3 years" reference.
-It's quite outrageous to expect Nylander to be a top line player within 3 years.
-We need to hit ALL rounds of the draft. You can't count on free agency to fill out your lineup. Finding players to fill those roles with later picks is what separates the track records of teams like CHI and LAK vs. EDM.

The thread starter stated if it can be done in 5 years. Nylander would be 24 five years from now. The draft picks would all be 2,3 and 4 years removed from their draft year and they would have to be fantastic picks that will contribute for this scenario to even happen. Our pick this year would also be 23 years old by then. Many comparables from other years have put up 45-60 points as 20-21 year olds. By 23 we should know if we got a #1 this year. I agree about the later rounds. Finding players like Saad, Shaw and Tofolli would be crucial.

 

[jmart21]

We sure as hell are building around players on the roster, or do you think the plan to keep players like Rielly, JVR (likley), Bernier, Gardiner, Kadri etc are just for kicks while we lose? The rebuild started the year we drafted Rielly, we just didn't know it.

What I am saying is that Shanny has made it clear that he's here to change the mentality of the organization to "as long as it takes". Obviously the goal will be to get this team back to contention within a reasonable amount of time, but as soon as you start putting deadlines on it (ex: "Rielly is 26 now, we must jump to Win-now mode") you've strayed from the plan (that is if the team is still "building").

This team has every intention of getting competitive in 3-5 years, much like the Islanders, Lightning, Florida have done in the last 5 years. Comparing anything to Edmonton is a joke, they suck out loud.

The only intention this team has is to stop putting deadlines on things. It's going to take as long as it takes and the people hired as part of the management group will have to embody this.

 

[rdawg1234]

3 years is more likely for return to Playoffs IMO.

you guys are sounding like we just started the Rebuild this season, we already added Reilly, Brown, Nylander, Leipsic, Percy since 2012, with two top 10 picks in the last two seasons. we've already been re-building for two seasons, Just haven't committed to it fully.

Add onto that the fact that we already have young secondary pieces that will still be in their prime when the build is done(JVR, Gardiner, Kadri, Bernier).

this isn't a barebones team at all and even being competitive in two seasons is a possibility with the right UFA additions and a little luck in the draft(mcdavid).

 

[DesertHombre]

One thing this rebuild could be a major challenge for some of the young players and prospects. The Leafs have to be careful that they don't push the young prospects into a bad situation and mess up their confidence, especially the younger defencemen. As it is, Jake Gardiner still seems a bit shakey. I could see them unloading Gardiner if he shows too much inconsistency and struggles next season. Morgan Reilly is at a higher level of maturity for his age and should be fine. It will be interesting to see what veteran is brought in to help mentor this team and teach these young players that laziness and complacency is not acceptable on this team.

 

[Preisst*]

Tough question.

I don't think we should change our plan just because we get him. Maybe we keep Kessel and that is absolutely the only McDavid exception I would make. Why ? Because I think having an elite player to experiment with would be good for him and it could wake up Kessel (who has already vowed to return next year in the best shape of his life).

Otherwise, you still have to rebuild our D needs 3-4 new guys (Gardiner, Rielly a Robidas being the main guys)

You need a third and fourth line and two second line wingers.

Once you get to 80-90% of that you can start to push , until then it's pointless.

I'm not doubting you but I have not heard this anywhere, ever. Do you have a source? If not where did you hear it?

 

[pcruz]

I do not follow the Leafs closely, but I was wondering if the Leafs get Connor McDavid, what changes need to take place in order to be a serious Cup contender in the next 5 years?

Obviously having McDavid will go a long way toward this goal, and I know this is speculation, but what other players or types of players need to be obtained and who needs to be jettisoned in order to keep the situation cap-friendly?

For example, do you see Kessel and JVR lighting it up as his wings, or would one or both of them need to go to make room for a different player?

Thanks in advance for any responses.

1) Win the draft lottery this year.
2) Sign 2 defensemen that are on par with Phaneuf in all aspects other than salary
3) Acquire a serious #1 centre with size who can be a strong presence on the draws, provide physicality, and be strong defensively
4) Hope Bernier becomes a top 5 goalie in the league

If this team could do all 4 of those, maintain the majority of the current roster (minus some 3rd pairing guys and the 4th liners) AND come in under the cap, they could possibly contend for a cup in 5 years time.

1) draft better

2) develop talent better

3) coach better

4) manage better



5) draft better

6) draft better

7) draft better

8) draft better

9) draft better

10) draft better

Sorry to burst this bubble, but unless you draft #1 or maybe #2 this year, that player isn't going to be a good-great player any time in the next 3 years. Anyone else will likely take 5 years to make a real impact.

Therefore, unless our 4th or 5th pick is Jesus incarnate who can singlehandedly win us a championship, there is literally no chance we're winning a cup in 5 years time by drafting and developing.

 

[dougieg93]

After McDavid, add Roy who I think can be a top 4 defenseman. Add a first pairing defensemen and another elite 1 winger in the 2016 draft. We got a solid young core to build around along with good depth.

JVR | McDavid | Nylander
?| Kadri | Brown
Leivo | Gauthier | Johnson
Komarov | Holland/Leipsic | Carrick

Rielly | ?
Percy | Roy
Finn/Valiev/Granberg/Nilson/Loov

 

[Lobstertainment]

After McDavid, add Roy who I think can be a top 4 defenseman. Add a first pairing defensemen and another elite 1 winger in the 2016 draft. We got a solid young core to build around along with good depth.

JVR | McDavid | Nylander
?| Kadri | Brown
Leivo | Gauthier | Johnson
Komarov | Holland/Leipsic | Carrick

Rielly | ?
Percy | Roy
Finn/Valiev/Granberg/Nilson/Loov

You traded Gardiner?

 

[tooncesmeow]

Man people are so hung up on drafting. It's really sad.

The best way to make the playoffs, to become a contender, is to get your core guys on good deals, and to have good cap flexibility. The Leafs under Burke, had good cap flexibility, even when they spent to the cap, their contract situation was structured in such a way that the Leafs were ALWAYS relevant come deadline day, or free agent day, and why? Because Burke understood the power of Cap Hit in the salary cap era.

Under Nonis the Leafs have given away the popular contracts, the long length ones and placing restrictions on that, especially ones like "8teams to go to" seriously hamper our flexbility. In this version of the NHL, a lot more people are 'open' then others think. Yeah you could have these 3 prospects and you might get some quality 2nd liners out of them, or you could bundle them up and get your quality first liner thats going to push you into contendership.

What its going to take to win, is a combination of luck, drafting, and trades. Connor Brown is doing great in the AHL, and that's great, but I'd package him and Gardiner if it meant getting a top pairing defender, or a top line wing, or an Ace goaltender. That's the mode the Leafs have to get into thinking. Who scored the GWG for the Flames? A guy who was traded for a 5th round pick. Who led Montreal to their Game 1 win with a goal and 2 assists? A guy traded for a 5th round pick. Who slapped in the GWG for the Blackhawks? A guy picked up in the draft after all 30 teams had already picked. Who's the 20 goal scorer who potted 2 goals in the Isles 4-1 win over Washington? A guy that was picked at 30th overall.

The secret to a successful team isn't tanking, its having the proper talent in place to identify good talent, and having the flexbility both in the cupboard and on the salary cap sheet to make your moves. Those little moves for the NHL guys who play on the 2nd pairing, or the third line, the aging vets who don't "fit the mold" anymore, those are the moves that win championships. If you just stink it up every year, draft in the top 5, and pull in 1 or 2 guys, and always avoid free agency and trades like the plague, thinking your NHL15 GM plan will work, you're going to end up very quickly like the Oilers, who basically have no advantage from tanking. Their core guys are already on their "Big" deals.

 

[lovecat]

Exorcism or the Rapture

 

[Hero]

1. Win lottery, draft McD
2. Sign Futa/Babcock
3. Trade Kessel, Phaneuf, Bozak, Lupul and maybe JvR, Kadri, Gardiner
4. Sign good vet mentors
5. Draft and develop well
6. Draft Chychurn in 2016

 

[Socreges]

Loving the take-charge approach by Shanahan! The organization is in good hands now and I think we'll be a playoff team sooner than most think! Don't underestimate the genius of Kyle Dubas and Mark Hunter! With this trio of brains overseeing the team we'll be a force to be reckoned with for years and years!

 

[dougieg93]

Man people are so hung up on drafting. It's really sad.

The best way to make the playoffs, to become a contender, is to get your core guys on good deals, and to have good cap flexibility. The Leafs under Burke, had good cap flexibility, even when they spent to the cap, their contract situation was structured in such a way that the Leafs were ALWAYS relevant come deadline day, or free agent day, and why? Because Burke understood the power of Cap Hit in the salary cap era.

Under Nonis the Leafs have given away the popular contracts, the long length ones and placing restrictions on that, especially ones like "8teams to go to" seriously hamper our flexbility. In this version of the NHL, a lot more people are 'open' then others think. Yeah you could have these 3 prospects and you might get some quality 2nd liners out of them, or you could bundle them up and get your quality first liner thats going to push you into contendership.

What its going to take to win, is a combination of luck, drafting, and trades. Connor Brown is doing great in the AHL, and that's great, but I'd package him and Gardiner if it meant getting a top pairing defender, or a top line wing, or an Ace goaltender. That's the mode the Leafs have to get into thinking. Who scored the GWG for the Flames? A guy who was traded for a 5th round pick. Who led Montreal to their Game 1 win with a goal and 2 assists? A guy traded for a 5th round pick. Who slapped in the GWG for the Blackhawks? A guy picked up in the draft after all 30 teams had already picked. Who's the 20 goal scorer who potted 2 goals in the Isles 4-1 win over Washington? A guy that was picked at 30th overall.

The secret to a successful team isn't tanking, its having the proper talent in place to identify good talent, and having the flexbility both in the cupboard and on the salary cap sheet to make your moves. Those little moves for the NHL guys who play on the 2nd pairing, or the third line, the aging vets who don't "fit the mold" anymore, those are the moves that win championships. If you just stink it up every year, draft in the top 5, and pull in 1 or 2 guys, and always avoid free agency and trades like the plague, thinking your NHL15 GM plan will work, you're going to end up very quickly like the Oilers, who basically have no advantage from tanking. Their core guys are already on their "Big" deals.

The only problem with the approach is that normally 1st pairing defensemen or 1st line centers are not available through trade or free agency. Unless you are lucky, the only way is through the draft or a GM makes a terrible mistake like Chia with Seguin.

 

[Bill Waters*]

Trade for Crosby, Weber, and Ovechkin.

 

[burpsalot]

Save percentage.

 

[firstemperor]

Draft well is #1-#10 on the list->Develop players properly. I like the take it slow approach unless a player is clearly ready for the NHL- and by that, I mean playing top 6 or close to top 6 minutes if hes a projected top 6.

Hire a good coach, might be too early in our rebuild phase to hire Babcock because he'll destroy the tank.

Don't overpay for anyone in free agency.

I doubt it takes 5 years to be competitive but it may take that long to build a contender on paper. We can turn around our luck in as little as by next year because IMHO we have good talent on the roster that isn't being utilized to its full potential (not like the JFJ era). But for the type of team I want to build, some of our pieces are not conducive to my liking. I like a 2-way, heavy-possession 5 on 5 game with a strong special teams (where I'd argue coaches have the biggest impact), not a fan of floaters.

For as much credit as Burke apologists have for him, a lot of his big moves have hurt us way more than have helped (i.e the Kessel trade). You have to build through the draft, it's just a fact of life if you want to win.

 

[Menzinger]

The only problem with the approach is that normally 1st pairing defensemen or 1st line centers are not available through trade or free agency. Unless you are lucky, the only way is through the draft or a GM makes a terrible mistake like Chia with Seguin.

Yep.

I certainly agree with the point that the draft alone isn't enough to guarantee success. You do need to make smart free agent signings, trades can play a role - and very important is later round drafting. The team will need some of its 2nd, 3rds, ect to become major impact players.

But as you rightly suggest - the leafs spent the last decade trying to grab topline talent via trades or free agency and it really hasn't worked. You CAN sometimes get lucky and end up with a JVR - but those topline centres are almost never traded.

 

[dimi78]

Regardless of Team you build by using all 3 tools available to the GM. Draft & developing, trades & UFA all 3 need to be managed and have success in them to build a winner.

There's a reason why Shannahan never really divulged what "The Plan" is. What he divulged is that all 29 other teams say the same thing about draft & developing and that they're no different on that front. He even reiterated that when all other 29 teams start to divulge what they're working on daily so will they. Plans change but the vision doesn't that's why there's no time line because you can't predict this when your dealing with humans not robots.

For the OP.

DEVELOPING
DEVELOPING
DEVELOPING

Developing young players is absolutely the worst aspect of this franchise. The Leafs IMO are the worst in pro sports in player development and frankly lost as they never set up young guys to be successful. It's like they're afraid to commit to youth and use them as core pieces to develop them.

Until they change their ways, stop being chickens and do right by there young talents this franchise is going nowhere.

 

[Ducati1098VII]

Draft McDavid
Bring up Brown Nylander McDavid
????
Stanley Cup 2017!!!!