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GWT: Champions League MD6

Peen

Peen

Rejoicing in a Benning-free world
Oct 6, 2013
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It's a bit early but I feel like there's a lot riding on this matchday so maybe people want to discuss further in advance.

Atletico - RB Salzburg
Atalanta - Ajax
Lazio - Brugge
United - Leipzig
PSG - Istanbul
--- GROUP B --
Shakhtar - Inter
Madrid - BMG

PSG is the only team playing a team that is completely out of it. But it's win and you're in for PSG.

Selfishly, I'm hoping for anything that favors Chelsea's RO16 potential opponents. Bolded are the teams I hope to win based on that..
Click to read more...
 
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hatterson

hatterson

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Apr 12, 2010
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Group A

Bayern with top the group
Atletico will be 2nd with a DRAW or a WIN.
RB Salzburg will be 2nd with a WIN.
Lokomotiv can't make R16, but would get an EL spot with a WIN and an Atletico LOSS or DRAW. Otherwise the EL spot will go to whoever between Atletico and Salzburg doesn't get the R16 spot.

Group B

Lots of fun here. All 4 teams can make R16 and no one is locked in.

Monchengladbach will top the group with a WIN or with a DRAW and a Shakhtar DRAW or LOSS. They'll qualify R16 with a LOSS and a Shakhtar/Inter DRAW.
Shakhtar can top the group with a WIN AND a Monchengladbach DRAW OR LOSS. They'll qualify for R16 with a DRAW and a Real Madrid DRAW or LOSS.
Real Madrid can top the group with a WIN AND a Monchengladbach LOSS. They'll qualify for R16 with a WIN or (a DRAW and a Shakhtar LOSS).
Inter cannot top the group, however can still qualify for R16 with a WIN and a Real Madrid LOSS.

Group C

Boring sauce.

City top the group
Porto second
Marseille must get a better result than Olympicos to qualify Europa.

Group D

Liverpool top the group
Atalanta finish second with a WIN or DRAW. Third with a LOSS.
Ajax finish second with a WIN. Third with a DRAW or LOSS.
Midtjyland are stapled to the bottom.

Group E

More boring sauce.

Chelsea top the group.
Sevilla second.
Krasnodar third
Rennes bottom

Group F

Dortmund will move on. They'll also top the group with a WIN, (DRAW and Brugge/Lazio DRAW), OR Brugge WIN. Otherwise they'll be 2nd.
Lazio will top the group with a WIN and a Dortmund DRAW or LOSS. They'll be second with a WIN and Dortmund WIN or with a DRAW.
Brugge will move on with a WIN. Otherwise will be third.
Zenit bottom

Group G

Juve/Barca are moving on. If Juve beat Barca by a three goal margin or 2 goal margin at 3-1 or higher, they'll top the group otherwise Barca will.
Dyanamo Kyiv will get Europa with a WIN or DRAW.
Ferencvaros will get Europa with a WIN.

Group H

More fun here. All three top teams are on 9 points. Note the 3 way tie breakers may come into play here. If all 3 teams remain tied, the first tie breaker is points in head to head matches which would be United 7, PSG 6, Leipzig 4.

PSG will top the group with a WIN. They'll finish 2nd with a DRAW OR with a LOSS and United/Leipzig not being a DRAW. They'll finish 3rd with a LOSS and a United/Leipzig DRAW
United will top the group with a WIN and a PSG LOSS or DRAW or with a DRAW and a PSG LOSS or DRAW. They'll finish 2nd with a WIN and PSG WIN or a DRAW and PSG WIN.
Leipzig will top the group with a WIN and a PSG LOSS or DRAW. They'll qualify R16 with a WIN and PSG WIN OR a DRAW and PSG LOSS. They'll finish third with a DRAW and PSG WIN or DRAW or with a LOSS.
Basaksehir are bottom.


I'm pretty sure all this is right. I've seen a few sources online with contradictory information and some that's objectively false (like Leipzig needing a win to advance), so I tried to verify everything. May have made a mistake somewhere though.
 
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Savant

Savant

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Oct 3, 2013
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Peen said:
Selfishly, I'm hoping for anything that favors Chelsea's RO16 potential opponents. Bolded are the teams I hope to win based on that..
Click to expand...
I was also guilty of thinking R16 today. For me though, especially since Liverpool were out of it for a bit, I honestly would just want to play a team that we haven’t seen for a while. My exception to this would be Real Madrid, because I want Kiev revenge, but yeah my top picks would be
  • Any of the Group B teams
  • Lazio or Brugge (1978 Final Rematch)
  • Juventus (last played in 2005)
  • RB Leipzig
Those would be fun matchups for me. Want to keep it fresh, especially after drawing the same teams over and over again in domestic cups over the last four/five years.
 
Savi

Savi

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Dec 3, 2006
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Bruges, Belgium
hatterson said:
Group H

More fun here. All three top teams are on 9 points. Note the 3 way tie breakers may come into play here. If all 3 teams remain tied, the first tie breaker is points in head to head matches which would be United 7, PSG 6, Leipzig 4.

PSG will top the group with a WIN. They'll finish 2nd with a DRAW OR with a LOSS and United/Leipzig not being a DRAW. They'll finish 3rd with a LOSS and a United/Leipzig DRAW
United will top the group with a WIN and a PSG LOSS or DRAW or with a DRAW and a PSG LOSS or DRAW. They'll finish 2nd with a WIN and PSG WIN or a DRAW and PSG WIN.
Leipzig will top the group with a WIN and a PSG LOSS or DRAW. They'll qualify R16 with a WIN and PSG WIN OR a DRAW and PSG LOSS. They'll finish third with a DRAW and PSG WIN or DRAW or with a LOSS.
Basaksehir are bottom.
Click to expand...

My brain hurt from Reading that :laugh:
 

Pouchkine

Registered User
May 20, 2015
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Are Brugge capable of beating Lazio? When was the last time a Belgian team reached the last 16 and did it happen often in the last say 30 years?
 
Blender

Blender

Registered User
Dec 2, 2009
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Pouchkine said:
Are Brugge capable of beating Lazio? When was the last time a Belgian team reached the last 16 and did it happen often in the last say 30 years?
Click to expand...
Gent made it in 15-16 to the round of 16. I think that's the only Belgian team to make it there under the current format, which started in 2003-2004.

I wouldn't bet on Brugge to beat Lazio, but plenty of other similar level clubs to Brugge have made the round of 16 over the last 15 years.
 
Pavel Buchnevich

Pavel Buchnevich

Drury and Laviolette Must Go
Dec 8, 2013
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New York
Dortmund has to travel to Russia. A lot of the first team squad has stayed back. We are dealing with some significant injuries right now and this game comes at a bad time with our league struggles recently.

Win and get first place. There’s no reason we shouldn’t be winning this game. Brugge could also help us out against Lazio, and maybe we wouldn’t even need a win to get first place.
 
Savi

Savi

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Dec 3, 2006
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Bruges, Belgium
hatterson said:
Inter cannot top the group, however can still qualify for R16 with a WIN and a Real Madrid LOSS.
Click to expand...

I was thinking about this, and Inter really are in a tough position

they HAVE to win, there's no other choice; so if they do, Madrid-Gladbach would both profit of a tie against eachother
So basically if you're Inter, you want to win but you don't want to be up 3-0 at the half because then Madrid and Gladbach won't try to beat eachother anymore, which is what Inter needs
 
hatterson

hatterson

Registered User
Apr 12, 2010
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North Tonawanda, NY
Savi said:
I was thinking about this, and Inter really are in a tough position

they HAVE to win, there's no other choice; so if they do, Madrid-Gladbach would both profit of a tie against eachother
So basically if you're Inter, you want to win but you don't want to be up 3-0 at the half because then Madrid and Gladbach won't try to beat eachother anymore, which is what Inter needs
Click to expand...

Yea they're in a tough spot, but the result of the Inter game doesn't really affect Gladbach too much.

They'll go into the game thinking they'd like to win and top the group, but a draw guarantees them an R16 spot. If Inter win then a draw would guarantee them topping the group, but that's still only 1 fluke goal away from losing and finishing second so it's not like they'd just hunker down and wait for the game to end.
 
YNWA14

YNWA14

Onbreekbaar
Dec 29, 2010
34,543
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I'm hoping Leipzig pull out the win here (I imagine most neutrals do). Would be great if both United and PSG could fall out of the CL today but, one will do.
 
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