CF% on shifts that start in off zone vs def zone

[Filthy Dangles]

I have a hard time understanding that zone starts really don't matter much. Do they really not matter or is it that they just even out? Also neutral zone starts to worry about.

A simple test would be to look at data for shifts that only start in the offensive zone vs shifts that only start in the offensive zone and see the impact it has on cf%. I don't know how to go about it though.

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[Dream Big]

I have a hard time understanding that zone starts really don't matter much. Do they really not matter or is it that they just even out? Also neutral zone starts to worry about.

A simple test would be to look at data for shifts that only start in the offensive zone vs shifts that only start in the offensive zone and see the impact it has on cf%. I don't know how to go about it though.

Looks like a typo? Offensive zone vs offensive zone ?

 

[Sojourn]

I'm sure he means offensive zone and defensive zone. The question being what is the impact when a player is starting 180 feet from the opposing net vs. 180 feet from their own.

Even if you consider the impact face-offs would have, and that it can be a bit of a coin flip, you're still less likely to have a shot taken on your own net when you're starting in the offensive zone, win or lose. It would also be tougher to get a shot on the opposing net when you win a face-off in your own end.

Logic suggests there is an impact, and that over a longer period of time a small impact could turn into a larger one.

 

[OCSportsfan]

Is there a stat that measures where your shift ends (at a whistle). I believe there is, but not sure where to find. I think if a player constantly is finishing his shift in the offensive zone either by defensive icing, goalie stoppage, puck over the glass etc. then he would affecting possession numbers. Even if he is taken off the ice for the next face off, he should still get some kind of credit for that team advantage.

Thanks in advance.

 

[fiveonfive]

I have a hard time understanding that zone starts really don't matter much. Do they really not matter or is it that they just even out? Also neutral zone starts to worry about.

A simple test would be to look at data for shifts that only start in the offensive zone vs shifts that only start in the offensive zone and see the impact it has on cf%. I don't know how to go about it though.

It's because they "sorta" even out. The simple explanation is that due to the volume of on-the-fly and neutral zone shifts, no player’s CF% is damaged or propped-up though zone stars any more than they control their CF% themselves. A lot of advanced stats sources have zone adjustments if you want to see the "normalized" picture, it usually does not look that much different from the unadjusted info.

I'm sure he means offensive zone and defensive zone. The question being what is the impact when a player is starting 180 feet from the opposing net vs. 180 feet from their own.

Even if you consider the impact face-offs would have, and that it can be a bit of a coin flip, you're still less likely to have a shot taken on your own net when you're starting in the offensive zone, win or lose. It would also be tougher to get a shot on the opposing net when you win a face-off in your own end.

Logic suggests there is an impact, and that over a longer period of time a small impact could turn into a larger one.

I think there is a communication issue here. When stats people say zone starts don't matter, they mean "when you look at a players CF% for the entire season, the zone deployment is not a material driver of the variation within their CF%" not "a d-zone and an o-zone start are exactly equal". The reality is that the majority of shifts happen on the fly and then another solid chuck of them happen in the neutral zone. Add the face off win/loss and you see that over season long samples there very little influence on CF% from zone starts.