Speculation: Center Depth

[thestonedkoala]

To be fair, everyone but Gillies was a top-level talent at the time of the draft.

Gillies was actually a top 30 prospect in the draft at the time.

Voloshenko, Fiala, O'Sullivan, Harding, Foy, Wallin, Wanvig, Irmen, Olvecky, Jones were also prospects rated pretty high.

 

[Jarick]

I don't recall Gillies being a top 30 guy. From what I recall he was projected to be a 2nd rounder.

But yeah, 6-7 years ago we had a ton of top prospects and were a couple years out from a minor league team that won it all. Didn't end well.

 

[Engebretson]

I don't recall Gillies being a top 30 guy. From what I recall he was projected to be a 2nd rounder.

But yeah, 6-7 years ago we had a ton of top prospects and were a couple years out from a minor league team that won it all. Didn't end well.

http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=7066

McKenzie had him at #18 overall, sandwiched in between Perron and Couture.

 

[Circulartheory]

I don't recall Gillies being a top 30 guy. From what I recall he was projected to be a 2nd rounder.

But yeah, 6-7 years ago we had a ton of top prospects and were a couple years out from a minor league team that won it all. Didn't end well.

No, he was projected to be a first rounder. You don't usually get 30 players with top six potential and little bust risk.

So usually at the half of the draft, you start seeing dominant physical forwards with 20+ goals potential being picked. Tom Wilson, Jonathan Miller, Austin Watson (less physical and more hardwork), Zach Kassian. This year, it'll be Curtis Lazar, Ryan Hartman, Kerby Rychel, Valetin Zykov or Jacob De La Rose.

 

[Jarick]

http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=7066

McKenzie had him at #18 overall, sandwiched in between Perron and Couture.

Really? I guess I wasn't big on those mock drafts, I just remember reading about him that it was a terrible reach and he had no hands and no scoring ability. His stats sucked.

This was the stuff I was reading about him at the time:

Here's some HF posts before the draft

He's on a bad team...yet he gets no power play time. Doesn't sound like a typical first round prospect to me.

I chatted with a fellow who knows Gillies well and worked with him on his game and conditioning the past few summers. He said the one thing they can't remedy is his hands - he just doesn't have it around the net.

Gillies is going to play in the NHL - I don't think that's under debate - if you want to spend a first round pick on a third liner...be prepared for what you're getting.

That's pretty much exactly how he looked in the NHL, although he couldn't even get close to the puck half the time.

More

When it comes to size and the things you can teach, it's all there. Any scout will be drawn to a player that big with that kind of speed. It's the things you can't teach - the hockey sense, the instincts - that are lacking. I have doubts about how the kid thinks the game. And if given the choice between a kid who can think the game and one who struggles to think the game, I'll take the kid who can think the game every time.

Right after the draft

Zero hockey sense. He's got amazing physical tools, but he can't do jack with them. He hits, sure, and he doesn't emberass himself defensivly, but he's no where near good enough in that respect to warrant being picked in the first round.

He'll be an average third liner who provides practically no offense. I wouldn't want him on my team, but he fits the bill in Minessota, I guess....

I mean, there was ZERO talk about his offensive ability in any scouting report I read. Elite size and skating ability, and "if he can develop his offense..."

I dunno. I remember at the time thinking they blew the pick as an overreaction to getting pushed around by Anaheim, but maybe he could be the 3rd line center for the next decade. Shows what I knew about hockey then, that you'd draft somebody in the first round to be on your third line...

 

[thestonedkoala]

To be fair Jarick, that draft was bad. In any other draft, Gillies would have been a 2nd round pick (maybe 3rd)

As well, I find it funny that many fans for the Wild thought Gillies would develop into a 20-30 goal scorer.

 

[Circulartheory]

To be fair Jarick, that draft was bad. In any other draft, Gillies would have been a 2nd round pick (maybe 3rd)

As well, I find it funny that many fans for the Wild thought Gillies would develop into a 20-30 goal scorer.

With prospects, you can never predict clearly what you are going to get, so you draft based on the tools the player has.

In Gillies, we saw a 6-4 physical versatile forward that played gritty and played speedy.

Those are some nice tools to work with and we also had our fingers crossed those tools could develop into a net crashing forward. If all else failed, we had a youngster with some interesting tools to become a serviceable 3rd line forward who can play winger or center.

Alas, that didn't develop properly (IMO Wild rushed him) but still, he looks to be a better NHLer than a good amount of prospects picked after him, which is sort of depressing...

 

[Jarick]

That's the problem, guys saw 6'4 and his skating ability and lost themselves. He had no other skills. No hands, no scoring ability, no vision, no playmaking ability. Would have been a great 5th rounder or later project. But a 1st and 3rd...yeah.

Granted, my top choice would have been Nick Petrecki who's probably even worse than Gillies in terms of a bust, although I secretly wanted David Perron who I didn't think had a chance to go in the first round.

 

[Circulartheory]

That's the problem, guys saw 6'4 and his skating ability and lost themselves. He had no other skills. No hands, no scoring ability, no vision, no playmaking ability. Would have been a great 5th rounder or later project. But a 1st and 3rd...yeah.

Granted, my top choice would have been Nick Petrecki who's probably even worse than Gillies in terms of a bust, although I secretly wanted David Perron who I didn't think had a chance to go in the first round.

I think you are overestimating the power of the draft. Teams look for 3rd liner checkers at 2nd round. By the time you hit 5th, you looking at projects or depth players. At least with Gillies, he showed speed and grit and at the very least had the tools to be a very talented bottom sixer, not just an average depth player. Thats more than you can say for the rest of the draft.

But you also have to account the terrible development choices the Wild made. Where Gillies is now could be attributed to the fact the Wild rushed him instead of having him refine his craft.

 

[Circulartheory]

To follow up, I am not saying Gillies was the best pick at 16 and maybe not even worth the trade we made.

But I am quite confident he would have been gone, at the very least,the end of the 1st.

 

[nickschultzfan]

Gillies lack of hockey sense was downplayed by the Wild management. They obviously stretched for the big guy having just been beat in the playoffs by the big, bad Ducks. This is known.

However, if the Wild handled Gillies correctly, there is zero reason the kid couldn't have been developed into a shutdown center. They tried to make him into a powerforward winger, and the kid just couldn't read the play well enough.

 

[Circulartheory]

Gillies lack of hockey sense was downplayed by the Wild management. They obviously stretched for the big guy having just been beat in the playoffs by the big, bad Ducks. This is known.

However, if the Wild handled Gillies correctly, there is zero reason the kid couldn't have been developed into a shutdown center. They tried to make him into a powerforward winger, and the kid just couldn't read the play well enough.

I think you and Jarick are correct when combined. Gillies would have developed nicely into a strong physical bottom sixer, but after the Wild got spanked by the Ducks, they panicked and rushed him into the NHL.

 

[nickschultzfan]

I think you and Jarick are correct when combined. Gillies would have developed nicely into a strong physical bottom sixer, but after the Wild got spanked by the Ducks, they panicked and rushed him into the NHL.

Yeah, Gillies is what killed the Riser regime. Pouliot and Sheppard went where they were projected. Thelen looked too good to be true (and was). Cuma was actually a good pick IMO (impossible to know he would have such injury problem and he was such a good skater before that).

But Gillies. Gillies. Gillies. Riser admitted that he picked him because of the Ducks series, but couldn't understand that forwards are 5-6 years away from actually being an impact player. Then he double and tripled down on this by pulling him out of juniors and tossing him on the Wild, and playing him at a new position, winger, which made sense in theory, but not if you watched him for five minutes and figured out that he couldn't even predict where a dumped in puck was going to go.

 

[thestonedkoala]

No, the Gillies pick isn't what killed this team. It was a combination of different things including a new owner.

 

[DeuceMN]

Our team has gradually become better since this new owner.

We have an owner who's willing to spend what it takes, and spend as much as possible to do what we can.

Really man?! Really??

Look dude, I respect your passion for the Wild, but it's like you're just looking for a fight in every damned thing.

We have a lot of issues that need to be resolved with our team, but we don't need to go seeking things that don't exist.

 

[Circulartheory]

There are only two reasons why the Wild sucked the last few years:

#1 Bad drafting and/or bad development of prospects

#2 DR is a great, safe GM. Great for an expansion team but was unwilling to change his approach, and as such, we remained an expansion team, looking for cheap, bargain deals of second tier players. That is great for a 1st year team, not a seven year team...

 

[thestonedkoala]

Our team has gradually become better since this new owner.

We have an owner who's willing to spend what it takes, and spend as much as possible to do what we can.

Really man?! Really??

Look dude, I respect your passion for the Wild, but it's like you're just looking for a fight in every damned thing.

We have a lot of issues that need to be resolved with our team, but we don't need to go seeking things that don't exist.

/head desk.

Did you even read what I was responding to? Or did you just see my post and didn't read anything else.

Yeah, Gillies is what killed the Riser regime.

That is what I was responding to. Gillies isn't what killed the Riser regime. It was a combination of different things that finally did Riser in. Sorry I see I said trade instead of pick but still you should see what I responded too.

 

[mezcal]

/head desk.

Did you even read what I was responding to? Or did you just see my post and didn't read anything else.



That is what I was responding to. Gillies isn't what killed the Riser regime. It was a combination of different things that finally did Riser in.

You know who/what killed the Riser regime? Riser.

 

[thestonedkoala]

You know who/what killed the Riser regime? Riser.

He should have been fired after 04/05.

 

[Circulartheory]

He should have been fired after 04/05.

I want to be fair as possible: DR was a good GM for the first few years. Made some safe moves, made the Wild into a semi-competitive team. But when the Wild was starting to look like a playoff team, he would not make any big moves and signs guys like Miettinen...

CF at least isn't afraid to pull the trigger and so far, it is making the Wild into a contender for the playoffs.

 

[nickschultzfan]

No, the Gillies pick isn't what killed this team. It was a combination of different things including a new owner.

That is not what I said.

The way Riser handled Gillies was his jump the shark moment. After that he was on his way to the exit, whether anybody knew it at the time or not.

 

[Jarick]

There are only two reasons why the Wild sucked the last few years:

#1 Bad drafting and/or bad development of prospects

#2 DR is a great, safe GM. Great for an expansion team but was unwilling to change his approach, and as such, we remained an expansion team, looking for cheap, bargain deals of second tier players. That is great for a 1st year team, not a seven year team...

Agreed on both points. He also failed to realize the needs of the team.

He didn't build on the success of 2003, which led to two seasons of awful hockey before and after the lockout. In 2007 and 2008, he didn't add to a really good team with a really good coach and they were easy first round exits. In 2008 and 2009 he pretty much blew the impending UFA's of Gaborik, Rolston, Demitra, and Backstrom. One guy got severely overpaid and the rest walked.

That is not what I said.

The way Riser handled Gillies was his jump the shark moment. After that he was on his way to the exit, whether anybody knew it at the time or not.

I think that's how I look at CF and this coming year. He didn't make a change at coach and put his chips in on Pominville. If the Wild don't have success, he knows he's gone. It's his last big move. Of course, putting your chips in on a player like Poms is a HELL of a lot smarter bet than on young prospects who were never elite.

 

[thestonedkoala]

Of course, putting your chips in on a player like Poms is a HELL of a lot smarter bet than on young prospects who were never elite.

Or Chris Simon

 

[nickschultzfan]

Or Chris Simon

Worst trade deadline ever. I realize that O.Jokinen flamed out after Florida, but can't believe Riser thought that Shep and Bouchard were too valuable to give up for an established top-6 center. O.Jokinen and his 50-60 points would still be the best 2nd line center in Wild history.

 

[thestonedkoala]

Worst trade deadline ever. I realize that O.Jokinen flamed out after Florida, but can't believe Riser thought that Shep and Bouchard were too valuable to give up for an established top-6 center. O.Jokinen and his 50-60 points would still be the best 2nd line center in Wild history.

To be fair, Sheppard was still a young prospect that the Wild wrecked later on. And Bouchard didn't have scramble eggs for a head then.