Ceiling of Our Prospects

[Jame]

People are going to be extremely disappointed when you think the floor of every mid-level prospect is that he has a long NHL career. I hate to break it to you but some the guys you list as a "floor" are closer to their ceiling. Their floor is not making the NHL at all, which isn't unlikely at all for players like Compher or Lemieux. To call them a lock is a fantasy at this point.

You could put floor = bust for nearly all prospects, what purpose does that serve ?

NHL ceiling vs nhl floor is at least an fun/interesting discussion.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

You could put floor = bust for nearly all prospects, what purpose does that serve ?

NHL ceiling vs nhl floor is at least an fun/interesting discussion.

You're basically just asking what the NHL player comparable are, which is fine. It's just a stretch to even call that a "floor," but perhaps I'm splitting hairs here.

Those were still pretty ambitious floors, even if you actually mean "floor, assuming they have a fruitful NHL career."

 

[Moskau]

Joel Armia's defensive play may be getting a tad overrated around here.

 

[MayDayMayDay]

I've been a lurker for a long time and just registered. Hockey's Future offers incredible analysis but one thing I've always been drawn to is potential and ceiling. I like to see projections of what players could be. 70-80 PPG, Top 6 Winger, 30-40 Goals/year, Comparision: Floor - Wade Redden, Ceiling - Lidstrom, etc. Those were just examples.

I haven't found a lot of that around here besides "Top 6 winger". Can we do a rundown like this for our prospects so we know what we're dealing with in the future?

Sam Reinhart
Zemgus Girgensons
Rasmus Ristolainen
Nikita Zadorov
Mikhail Grigorenko
Jake McCabe
Joel Armia
JT Compher
Brendan Lemieux
Justin Bailey
Victor Olofsson
Nick Baptiste
Hudson Fasching
Linus Ullmark
Larsson

Add any I forgot to add. And for fun:

Connor McDavid
Jack Eichel

I'll just do ceiling and comparison.

Sam Reinhart
Ceiling: All situations playmaking 1C, Elite two-way player, 20-50-70
Comparisons: Jonathan Toews, Patrice Bergeron, Ron Francis, potentially Joe Sakic

Zemgus Girgensons
Ceiling: Elite two-way second liner, 30-30-60, energy player and matchup nightmare for opponents
Comparisons: Dustin Brown, TJ Oshie, Ryan Kesler

Rasmus Ristolainen
Ceiling: Elite 1D, Big minutes eating, special teams star
Comparison: Alex Pietrangelo, Erik Karlsson

Nikita Zadorov
Ceiling: Top 2 Def, Physical presence
Comparison: Brent Seabrook, prime Brian Campbell

Mikhail Grigorenko
Ceiling: Goal scoring top six winger, 2nd line center, PPG offensive output w/ some defensive liability
Comparison: Mikko Koivu, Patrick Sharp

Joel Armia
Ceiling: Goal scoring top six winger, PP sniper, strong two-way player (game has made strides in this area).
Comparison: Marian Hossa, Alex Steen

Jake McCabe
Ceiling: Top 4 Def, reliable PKer, potential PPQB (he did it effectively at Wisco).
Comparison: Paul Martin maybe?

Mark Pysyk
Ceiling: Top 4 Def, reliable, quiet shut down defender (#PysykIsland)
Comparison: Rod Langway

JT Compher
Ceiling: Elite 3rd liner, two-way monster
Comparison: *deep breathe*... Brad Marchand... I feel dirty.

Brendan Lemieux
Ceiling: Middle six pest. Banger. Energy/heart and soul type.
Comparison: His papa

Hudson Fasching
Ceiling: Middle six forechecking winger, effective PKer, periodic explosiveness.
Comparison: Blake Wheeler

 

[Jamie Walker]

I've been a lurker for a long time and just registered. Hockey's Future offers incredible analysis but one thing I've always been drawn to is potential and ceiling. I like to see projections of what players could be. 70-80 PPG, Top 6 Winger, 30-40 Goals/year, Comparision: Floor - Wade Redden, Ceiling - Lidstrom, etc. Those were just examples.

I haven't found a lot of that around here besides "Top 6 winger". Can we do a rundown like this for our prospects so we know what we're dealing with in the future?

Sam Reinhart
Zemgus Girgensons
Rasmus Ristolainen
Nikita Zadorov
Mikhail Grigorenko
Jake McCabe
Joel Armia
JT Compher
Brendan Lemieux
Justin Bailey
Victor Olofsson
Nick Baptiste
Hudson Fasching
Linus Ullmark
Larsson

Add any I forgot to add. And for fun:

Connor McDavid
Jack Eichel

you might want to change that opener when you meet new people.

just kidding, welcome aboard. now that i think of it, i might want to change that response.

 

[Correct]

you might want to change that opener when you meet new people.

just kidding, welcome aboard. now that i think of it, i might want to change that response.

Ha, I guess that was my way of getting across that I'm not a total newbie.

 

[SamuraiArt]

Ha, I guess that was my way of getting across that I'm not a total newbie.

Welcome! it's nice to occasionally see posters not named Jame or stokes84

 

[Matt Ress]

It's great that everybody kinda has a spot for each guy. Some guy's I can't even explain why I believe in them more than others. Really like Ullmark and Bailey, Fasching, Armia even McCabe. Not as big on JTC, Larsson, Baptiste, Pysyk, Lemieux. I know sometimes I post crazy stuff but it's all in good fun. And I drink sometimes.

 

[omglolnub]

Reinhart is on a different planet than Oates defensively.

Offensively I couldn't agree more.

In a good or bad way?

 

[VaporTrail]

I can't believe some of these answers. The worst case-scenario for Brendan Lemieux is Matthew Barnaby, who played over 800 games and scored 300 points in his career?

La la land

 

[Zman5778]

In a good or bad way?

In a good way.

 

[dire wolf]

I can't believe some of these answers. The worst case-scenario for Brendan Lemieux is Matthew Barnaby, who played over 800 games and scored 300 points in his career?

More likely, it means you compare him to a single season of Barnaby, not his entire career.

 

[Zman5778]

More likely, it means you compare him to a single season of Barnaby, not his entire career.

What I mean by saying that BL compares on the low end to MB is this:

If Brendan Lemieux makes the NHL and becomes a regular, the worst I could see him being is a Matthew Barnaby-TYPE.

IE -- being a complete, total, utter PITA to play against (and being a ****-disturber extraordinare) while potting 8-10 goals a season (give or take) and racking up the PIMs.

 

[Correct]

What I mean by saying that BL compares on the low end to MB is this:

If Brendan Lemieux makes the NHL and becomes a regular, the worst I could see him being is a Matthew Barnaby-TYPE.

IE -- being a complete, total, utter PITA to play against (and being a ****-disturber extraordinare) while potting 8-10 goals a season (give or take) and racking up the PIMs.

If Barnaby is too strong an example, then what about a more hardcore Vaclav Varada? With a floor as a more talented Kaleta?

Regardless it sounds like he can be a great piece to the puzzle.

 

[Correct]

Is there anything out there like draftbreakdown.com for hockey prospects? All I can find are Youtube highlights, and while those are good to see their strengths around the net, they never paint the whole picture. You don't see their two-way play, checking, effort, passing out of the zone, etc.

 

[Russ Tyler]

JT Compher
Top 9 Forward/Grinder/Checker/Pest (Ott-like, not Kaleta) another player versatile enough to play center or wing
20-30-50 (Max)
Ceiling: Ryan Callahan/Joe Pevelski
Floor: Greg Campbell

Brendan Lemieux
Top 9 Wing/Net Front Presense/Total Pest (Powerplay specialist HA)
15-15-30
Ceiling: Scott Hartnell
Floor: Maxim Lapierre

I think Lemieux could have Top-6 potential. Especially, depending on his line mates - put him with McDavid for 15 years and he could be an HoF'er.

 

[Jame]

Rasmus Ristolainen
Ceiling: Elite 1D, Big minutes eating, special teams star
Comparison: Alex Pietrangelo, Erik Karlsson

Nikita Zadorov
Ceiling: Top 2 Def, Physical presence
Comparison: Brent Seabrook, prime Brian Campbell

what?

 

[JLewyB]

I've been a lurker for a long time and just registered. Hockey's Future offers incredible analysis but one thing I've always been drawn to is potential and ceiling. I like to see projections of what players could be. 70-80 PPG, Top 6 Winger, 30-40 Goals/year, Comparision: Floor - Wade Redden, Ceiling - Lidstrom, etc. Those were just examples.

I haven't found a lot of that around here besides "Top 6 winger". Can we do a rundown like this for our prospects so we know what we're dealing with in the future?

i'll do comparisons

Sam Reinhart-backstrom
Zemgus Girgensons-kessler
Rasmus Ristolainen-petro, hope risto develops an edge
Nikita Zadorov-orpik
Mikhail Grigorenko-whar we wanted Coho to be
Jake McCabe-poor mans mcdonaugh
Joel Armia-vanek
JT Compher-henrique
Brendan Lemieux-james neal
Justin Bailey-nick foligno
Victor Olofsson-not enough viewings
Nick Baptiste-kreider
Hudson Fasching-jagr right now
Linus Ullmark-crawford
Larsson-still like the sobotka comparison

Add any I forgot to add. And for fun:

Connor McDavid-Mcdavid
Jack Eichel-malkin

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

Of course the floor for most players is not being a NHL player. I look at the floor as being the bare minimum of a player who makes the NHL. Sam Reinharts floor can be career AHLer. But if he makes the NHL his floor would be a 50 point forward IMO. So if you are saying lemieuxs floor is a 10-15 goal bottom 6 pest that's just saying what he will be at a minimum if he makes the league. Obviously he could be a career minor leaguer. But so can every single prospect who isn't established.

 

[brian_griffin]

I'll just do ceiling and comparison.

Sam Reinhart
Ceiling: All situations playmaking 1C, Elite two-way player, 20-50-70
Comparisons: Jonathan Toews, Patrice Bergeron, Ron Francis, potentially Joe Sakic Not knocking Sakic, but I'd take a Ron Francis clone over him 6 days a week and twice in Sundays.

Zemgus Girgensons
Ceiling: Elite two-way second liner, 30-30-60, energy player and matchup nightmare for opponents
Comparisons: Dustin Brown, TJ Oshie, Ryan Kesler

Rasmus Ristolainen
Ceiling: Elite 1D, Big minutes eating, special teams star
Comparison: Alex Pietrangelo, Erik Karlsson

Nikita Zadorov
Ceiling: Top 2 Def, Physical presence
Comparison: Brent Seabrook, prime Brian Campbell Campbell has never been as physical as Zadorov is already. And Zadorov will probably never approach Campbell's puck-lugging ability/

Mikhail Grigorenko
Ceiling: Goal scoring top six winger, 2nd line center, PPG offensive output w/ some defensive liability
Comparison: Mikko Koivu, Patrick Sharp

Joel Armia
Ceiling: Goal scoring top six winger, PP sniper, strong two-way player (game has made strides in this area).
Comparison: Marian Hossa, Alex Steen

Jake McCabe
Ceiling: Top 4 Def, reliable PKer, potential PPQB (he did it effectively at Wisco).
Comparison: Paul Martin maybe?

Mark Pysyk
Ceiling: Top 4 Def, reliable, quiet shut down defender (#PysykIsland)
Comparison: Rod Langway

JT Compher
Ceiling: Elite 3rd liner, two-way monster
Comparison: *deep breathe*... Brad Marchand... I feel dirty.

Brendan Lemieux
Ceiling: Middle six pest. Banger. Energy/heart and soul type.
Comparison: His papa

Hudson Fasching
Ceiling: Middle six forechecking winger, effective PKer, periodic explosiveness.
Comparison: Blake Wheeler

Sam Reinhart
Potential: Legit 1st line playmaking center and elite PKer
Playing style/comparison -- a more playmaking Toews/Bergeron type

Zemgus Girgensons
Potential: Legit 1st line winger or 2nd line center
Playing style/comparison: Dustin Brown

Rasmus Ristolainen
Potential: Legit top paring defenseman, possibly elite-level
Playing style/comparison: Tough. Duncan Keith maybe?

Nikita Zadorov
Potential: Legit top pairing defenseman
Playing style/comparison: Brent Seabrook

Mikhail Grigorenko
Potential: Legit top line center
Playing style/comparison: Joe Thornton that shoots more???? Does Grigorenko have the puck-possession and shield puck-with-the-body skills Thornton does?

Jake McCabe
Potential: 2nd pairing all situation minute eater
Playing style/comparison: Girardi-lite maybe?

Joel Armia
Potential: Legit top line winger with 2-way capability
Playing style/comparison: Marian Hossa

JT Compher
Potential: PITA 2nd/3rd line player
Playing style/comparison: Ryan Callahan style, half the production

Brendan Lemieux
Potential: ****-disturbing 2nd/3rd line winger
Playing style/comparison: His father is best case; Barnaby is worst.

Justin Bailey
Potential: 2nd line scorer/3rd line checker
Playing style/comparison: Think Darren Helm...but bigger and a better scoring touch Does Bailey have Helm's speed?

Victor Olofsson
Potential: 2nd line pure sniper
Playing style/comparison: Alex Semin-lite

Nick Baptiste
Potential: 1st/2nd line scorer/power forward
Playing style/comparison: Wayne Simmonds?

Hudson Fasching
Potential: 2nd line power forward
Playing style/comparison: The good version of Chris Stewart

Linus Ullmark
Potential: Starting NHL goaltender
Playing style/comparison: Lundqvist-lite

Larsson
Potential: Elite defense forward
Playing style/comparison: Sami Pahlsson

NOTE: All of these players could obviously go busto. I'm projecting a bit of a best-case "should they make the NHL" comparison when it comes to style.

Asking the above out of ignorance...

 

[OkimLom]

Sam Reinhart
Ceiling: #1A or #1B center; Franchise Center
Comparisons: Patrice Bergeron

Zemgus Girgensons
Ceiling: #2 Center
Comparisons: Ryan Kesler

Rasmus Ristolainen
Ceiling: Top Pairing Defenseman
Comparison: Alex Pietrangelo

Nikita Zadorov
Ceiling: Top 4 Defenseman
Comparison: Dustin Byfuglien

Mikhail Grigorenko
Ceiling: 2nd Line center
Comparison: Jason Spezza

Joel Armia
Ceiling: Top 6 Winer
Comparison: Jeff Carter

Jake McCabe
Ceiling: Bottom 4 Def
Comparison: Brooks Orpik

Mark Pysyk
Ceiling: Top 4 Def
Comparison: Toni Lydman

JT Compher
Ceiling: Top 9 Player (Winger/Center)
Comparison: Curtis Brown

Brendan Lemieux
Ceiling: Middle 6 forward
Comparison: Sean Avery

Hudson Fasching
Ceiling: Top 6 Winger
Comparison: Blake Wheeler

 

[Matt Ress]

I love the Zemgus/Dustin Brown comparison, imo very similar in a lot of aspects. I would like to see Z work on his checking though. Going into a hit with a better stance - knees bent, 2 skates on the ice then explode, as opposed to balancing on 1 skate with flailing arms. I'd like to see him heavier on his skates altogether.

RR is going to be a mean SOB imo, he doesn't show much emotion or even talk to opposing players after penalties or even derailing a guy into the boards, or cross checking a dude in the crease, just goin to work. He has patience about it though and isn't necessarily dirty. I like it a lot.

Zadorov can go a few different directions imo as well as Bailey. Tough to project at this point.

Reinhart, yeah play making two way center. Everybody knows it. Maybe they can send him in on the forecheck by himself a few games and tell him to hit people so that he can gain some confidence in the physicality department.

Does Olofsson have the hands to make it in the NHL? He definitely has the speed and scoring touch but really doesn't need to flash the soft hands too often on that big ice surface. Ullmark will be a top 5 goalie in The League in 3 years, if not, then top 3. ...2 cents.

 

[ZeroPT*]

Reinhart- bergeron with more offense
Grigorenko- Eric Staal
Girgensons- Philly Mike Richards
Armia-Semin
Risto- Petro/OEL
Zadorov-Kronwall
Pysyk-Oduya
McCabe-McDonagh
Baptiste-Simmonds
Compher-Shaw/Pavelski lite
Lemieux-Papa
Fasching-Wheeler

Those are the main ones. Not projections but style comparisons

 

[lifeisruff]

I'd say Armia, Pysyk, Reinhart and McEichel all have floors as NHL players.

Everyone else who isn't on our team right now has a floor of either a NHL/AHL tweener or a career AHLer.

 

[Zip15]

I think Fasching will be more Drew Stafford than Blake Wheeler. Not necessarily a bad thing. And he may even put up better numbers if he can play with McEichel or Reinhart.