Ceiling of Our Prospects

[Correct]

I've been a lurker for a long time and just registered. Hockey's Future offers incredible analysis but one thing I've always been drawn to is potential and ceiling. I like to see projections of what players could be. 70-80 PPG, Top 6 Winger, 30-40 Goals/year, Comparision: Floor - Wade Redden, Ceiling - Lidstrom, etc. Those were just examples.

I haven't found a lot of that around here besides "Top 6 winger". Can we do a rundown like this for our prospects so we know what we're dealing with in the future?

Sam Reinhart
Zemgus Girgensons
Rasmus Ristolainen
Nikita Zadorov
Mikhail Grigorenko
Jake McCabe
Joel Armia
JT Compher
Brendan Lemieux
Justin Bailey
Victor Olofsson
Nick Baptiste
Hudson Fasching
Linus Ullmark
Larsson

Add any I forgot to add. And for fun:

Connor McDavid
Jack Eichel

Click to read more...

 

[7 11 14]

I'll try my luck:

Zemgus Girgensons
Top 6 Forward/Shutdown 2-Way Player, versatile enough to play center or wing
30-30-60
Ceiling: Ryan Kesler/Patrice Bergeron
Floor: Todd Marchant

JT Compher
Top 9 Forward/Grinder/Checker/Pest (Ott-like, not Kaleta) another player versatile enough to play center or wing
20-30-50 (Max)
Ceiling: Ryan Callahan/Joe Pevelski
Floor: Greg Campbell

Brendan Lemieux
Top 9 Wing/Net Front Presense/Total Pest (Powerplay specialist HA)
15-15-30
Ceiling: Scott Hartnell
Floor: Maxim Lapierre

Johan Larsson, I'll start by saying a lot of people don't see a fit for him on future Sabres teams, but I like to lean towards the side of optimism with our prospects, I'll try to project his future.
Top 12 Forward - Like Zemgus, a Shutdown 2-Way Player, versatile enough to play center or wing
15-10-25
Ceiling: Sammy Pahlsson
Floor: Kevin Porter

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

I'll try my luck:

Zemgus Girgensons
Top 6 Forward/Shutdown 2-Way Player, versatile enough to play center or wing
30-30-60
Ceiling: Ryan Kesler/Patrice Bergeron
Floor: Todd Marchant

JT Compher
Top 9 Forward/Grinder/Checker/Pest (Ott-like, not Kaleta) another player versatile enough to play center or wing
20-30-50 (Max)
Ceiling: Ryan Callahan/Joe Pevelski
Floor: Steve Ott

Brendan Lemieux
Top 9 Wing/Net Front Presense/Total Pest (Powerplay specialist HA)
15-15-30
Ceiling: Scott Hartnell
Floor: Maxim Lapierre

People are going to be extremely disappointed when you think the floor of every mid-level prospect is that he has a long NHL career. I hate to break it to you but some the guys you list as a "floor" are closer to their ceiling. Their floor is not making the NHL at all, which isn't unlikely at all for players like Compher or Lemieux. To call them a lock is a fantasy at this point.

 

[Sabre the Win]

People are going to be extremely disappointed when you think the floor of every mid-level prospect is that he has a long NHL career. I hate to break it to you but some the guys you list as a "floor" are closer to their ceiling. Their floor is not making the NHL at all, which isn't unlikely at all for players like Compher or Lemieux. To call them a lock is a fantasy at this point.

I think Lemieux is a lock for the NHL.


Book it.

 

[haseoke39]

People are going to be extremely disappointed when you think the floor of every mid-level prospect is that he has a long NHL career. I hate to break it to you but some the guys you list as a "floor" are closer to their ceiling. Their floor is not making the NHL at all, which isn't unlikely at all for players like Compher or Lemieux. To call them a lock is a fantasy at this point.

I think it's about 25% odds of 2nd rounders making the league for more than a year or so.

 

[1972]

I highly doubt JT Compher's floor is Steve Ott, his floor is a NHL fringe player. Reality is at least 30% of our prospect pool will never make it, and some will only be depth players. Didn't Murray basically say something like this as well yesterday?

 

[7 11 14]

Yeah, again I'm leaning towards the side of optimism. In fact, I'm really basing these floors/projections or whatever on them making the NHL, not guarenteeing them a spot but more or less trying to project their role if they do become NHL regulars. Trust me, I'm no prospects expert and I'm not trying to spark arguments lol I just thought this would be fun. There's a lot of guys out there that do this professionally and even a lot who don't who still know a **** ton more than me. I know a lot of guys won't make it, but I mean what fun is projecting an AHL role, or the role of a guy that will go to Europe or the K? Not fun at all!

 

[Zman5778]

Sam Reinhart
Potential: Legit 1st line playmaking center and elite PKer
Playing style/comparison -- a more playmaking Toews/Bergeron type

Zemgus Girgensons
Potential: Legit 1st line winger or 2nd line center
Playing style/comparison: Dustin Brown

Rasmus Ristolainen
Potential: Legit top paring defenseman, possibly elite-level
Playing style/comparison: Tough. Duncan Keith maybe?

Nikita Zadorov
Potential: Legit top pairing defenseman
Playing style/comparison: Brent Seabrook

Mikhail Grigorenko
Potential: Legit top line center
Playing style/comparison: Joe Thornton that shoots more?

Jake McCabe
Potential: 2nd pairing all situation minute eater
Playing style/comparison: Girardi-lite maybe?

Joel Armia
Potential: Legit top line winger with 2-way capability
Playing style/comparison: Marian Hossa

JT Compher
Potential: PITA 2nd/3rd line player
Playing style/comparison: Ryan Callahan style, half the production

Brendan Lemieux
Potential: ****-disturbing 2nd/3rd line winger
Playing style/comparison: His father is best case; Barnaby is worst.

Justin Bailey
Potential: 2nd line scorer/3rd line checker
Playing style/comparison: Think Darren Helm...but bigger and a better scoring touch

Victor Olofsson
Potential: 2nd line pure sniper
Playing style/comparison: Alex Semin-lite

Nick Baptiste
Potential: 1st/2nd line scorer/power forward
Playing style/comparison: Wayne Simmonds?

Hudson Fasching
Potential: 2nd line power forward
Playing style/comparison: The good version of Chris Stewart

Linus Ullmark
Potential: Starting NHL goaltender
Playing style/comparison: Lundqvist-lite

Larsson
Potential: Elite defense forward
Playing style/comparison: Sami Pahlsson

NOTE: All of these players could obviously go busto. I'm projecting a bit of a best-case "should they make the NHL" comparison when it comes to style.

 

[truthbluth]

I highly doubt JT Compher's floor is Steve Ott, his floor is a NHL fringe player. Reality is at least 30% of our prospect pool will never make it, and some will only be depth players. Didn't Murray basically say something like this as well yesterday?

I think people are missing the point from the OP. Yes, the real 'floor' of a player is, 'never plays in the NHL'. True of everybody. e.g., Connor McDavid, Ceiling - Gretzky 2, Floor - hit by a bus.

I mean, what are we talking about?

When you suggest a 'floor' comparison, I think it means, 'assuming this player makes the NHL, what player is a realistic comparison'

That said, Steve Ott, though past his prime, is a former 20 goals scorer, team captain. I see JT Compher's floor comparison being Greg Campbell. Some points, lots of agitation.

 

[Zman5778]

I see JT Compher's floor comparison being Greg Campbell. Some points, lots of agitation.

I do like that floor comparison a lot for JTC. He and Fasching are the two guys that outside of the "Big 4" are the best shots to be regular NHL players, IMO with McCabe reallllly close behind.

 

[NEcoli]

I can't believe some of these answers. The worst case-scenario for Brendan Lemieux is Matthew Barnaby, who played over 800 games and scored 300 points in his career?

 

[7 11 14]

I think people are missing the point from the OP. Yes, the real 'floor' of a player is, 'never plays in the NHL'. True of everybody. e.g., Connor McDavid, Ceiling - Gretzky 2, Floor - hit by a bus.

I mean, what are we talking about?

When you suggest a 'floor' comparison, I think it means, 'assuming this player makes the NHL, what player is a realistic comparison'

That said, Steve Ott, though past his prime, is a former 20 goals scorer, team captain. I see JT Compher's floor comparison being Greg Campbell. Some points, lots of agitation.

Also what I read the OP as, instead I got lectured on people thinking I don't know what a bust is haha

 

[Zman5778]

I can't believe some of these answers. The worst case-scenario for Brendan Lemieux is Matthew Barnaby, who played over 800 games and scored 300 points in his career?

If he's an NHL regular, that is my opinion.

Obviously, any prospect can bust. Frankly, that's why I never mention it as an option, I think it's obvious.

 

[haseoke39]

I think people are missing the point from the OP. Yes, the real 'floor' of a player is, 'never plays in the NHL'. True of everybody. e.g., Connor McDavid, Ceiling - Gretzky 2, Floor - hit by a bus.

I mean, what are we talking about?

When you suggest a 'floor' comparison, I think it means, 'assuming this player makes the NHL, what player is a realistic comparison'

That said, Steve Ott, though past his prime, is a former 20 goals scorer, team captain. I see JT Compher's floor comparison being Greg Campbell. Some points, lots of agitation.

I mean, I'm assuming floor doesn't include hit by a bus. It's like, if you had a 5th percentile expectation and a 95th, throw out everything on the outside. That should safely keep you from either "dead" or "freak accident gives him superpowers" without ignoring that most of these kids don't make the league.

 

[Correct]

I actually didn't consider them busting out when I wrote the OP, to be honest. I'm more interested in their ceilings and "most likely" projections than their floors. My goal is to visualize the roster in 5 years or so.

 

[1972]

I watched an archive game the other day of Adam Oates, there is no better comparable for Sam Reinhart then him.

 

[Sabre the Win]

I watched an archive game the other day of Adam Oates, there is no better comparable for Sam Reinhart then him.

I agree, Ive been saying that since before we drafted him. I also put him as a comparable to Ron Francis but Adam Oates has always been my leading comparable.

 

[Zman5778]

I watched an archive game the other day of Adam Oates, there is no better comparable for Sam Reinhart then him.

Reinhart is on a different planet than Oates defensively.

Offensively I couldn't agree more.

 

[Correct]

I watched an archive game the other day of Adam Oates, there is no better comparable for Sam Reinhart then him.

That's HOF level, one of the top playmakers of all time level. That's very exciting.

 

[haseoke39]

It's just weird though asking about floor stipulating a long NHL career, cause that might be, eg, lemieuxs 60th percentile outcome or Sam reinharts 5th percentile projection.

 

[Zman5778]

I actually didn't consider them busting out when I wrote the OP, to be honest. I'm more interested in their ceilings and "most likely" projections than their floors.

Problem is, very few prospects really hit their ceilings and many prospects much closer to their floors than their ceilings.

PLUS, if you're putting together a 5-years-out roster, you also have to figure that our team will be in no way shape or form all guys we've drafted/developed. There will be trades and FA signings and busts.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Also what I read the OP as, instead I got lectured on people thinking I don't know what a bust is haha

Sorry if I jumped on ya! I guess I just don't see JTC or Lemieux as a big part of this team in the long run, if they do make it to the NHL. Sure, they might be on the energy line when Buffalo starts winning, but what's the fun of trying to pick who our Jordan Nolan's will be when we're in LA's position? I'd have more fun trying to predict the one late 1st or 2nd rounder who will actually make it as a key piece in the top 9. I'm more apt to put my money on Baily or Baptiste than Compher or Lemieux.

 

[Correct]

Problem is, very few prospects really hit their ceilings and many prospects much closer to their floors than their ceilings.

PLUS, if you're putting together a 5-years-out roster, you also have to figure that our team will be in no way shape or form all guys we've drafted/developed. There will be trades and FA signings and busts.

Obviously. That's why I included "most likely" comparisons. I've been reading a lot about these guys but haven't really wrapped my head around what kind of players they are or could be, except for the guys who have been called up.

As for the roster being different in 5 years. That goes without saying.

 

[Zman5778]

Sorry if I jumped on ya! I guess I just don't see JTC or Lemieux as a big part of this team in the long run, if they do make it to the NHL. Sure, they might be on the energy line when Buffalo starts winning, but what's the fun of trying to pick who our Jordan Nolan's will be when we're in LA's position? I'd have more fun trying to predict the one late 1st or 2nd rounder who will actually make it as a key piece in the top 9. I'm more apt to put my money on Baily or Baptiste than Compher or Lemieux.

If you're looking for a 2nd rounder being a key piece in the top 9, I really think that the best bets are JTC or Fasching. JTC gets my vote though. Tenacious in all zones and very defensively responsible. Flashy? Notsomuch, but he gets the job done.

 

[7 11 14]

Sorry if I jumped on ya! I guess I just don't see JTC or Lemieux as a big part of this team in the long run, if they do make it to the NHL. Sure, they might be on the energy line when Buffalo starts winning, but what's the fun of trying to pick who our Jordan Nolan's will be when we're in LA's position? I'd have more fun trying to predict the one late 1st or 2nd rounder who will actually make it as a key piece in the top 9. I'm more apt to put my money on Baily or Baptiste than Compher or Lemieux.

No problem man! I understand your thinking completely. It'll be fun to continue to watch this prospect pool progress. Whatever lineup gets us the Cup is fine by me.