EspenK raised the same point you did, and I think it might be just two different ways of gauging prospects. I think it's the age difference that we're factoring in differently.
If I was to put point projections for Dubois and Bjorkstrand side-by-side (obviously rough guesses)
Age --- Dubois --- Bjorkstrand
18 ------- 30 -------- 0
19 ------- 40 -------- 0
20 ------- 45 -------- 0
21 ------- 50 -------- 40
22 ------- 55 -------- 45
23 ------- 60 -------- 50
24 ------- 65 -------- 55
25 ------- 65 -------- 55
26 ------- 65 -------- 55
27 ------- 65 -------- 55
So, yes it would be great and unsurprising to me if Bjorkstrand scores 25G, 15A next year, and that'll be more than Dubois can put up. But by the time Dubois is Bjorkstrand's age, I expect he'll be better than that.
Here is what Bjorkstrand and Dubois did as 17 year olds.
Bjorkstrand:
Regular Season - 65 GP, 31 G, 32 A, 63 PTS, 10 PIM, +38
Playoffs - 21 GP, 8 G, 11 A, 19 PTS, 4 PIM
Dubois:
Regular Season - 62 GP, 42 G, 57 A, 99 PTS, 112 PIM, +40
Playoffs - 12 GP, 7 G, 5 A, 12 PTS, 14 PIM
EspenK I must say that you gold expectation is very optimistic, when you see the later comparison.
And that you already made a error in your table, since we already know that Bjorkstrand made 8 point this season in 12 games.
If I take that in the mind, and that of the history after 17 year.
Well this more like a fact, I am sure that I am inside the coming history...
Age --- Dubois --- Bjorkstrand
18 ------- 0-300 -------- 0
19 ------- 0-300 -------- 0
20 ------- 0-300 -------- 0 (is that not 8 historic fact, now)
21 ------- 0-300 -------- 0-300
22 ------- 0-300 -------- 0-300
23 ------- 0-300 -------- 0-300
24 ------- 0-300 -------- 0-300
25 ------- 0-300 -------- 0-300
26 ------- 0-300 -------- 0-300
27 ------- 0-300 -------- 0-300
My point is everybody's guess is as good as any.
But to be as seriously as you, Bjorkstrand has so for beaten any expectations, so I will because of you have to go with.
And because most, well never reach anything near expectations, so does this mean?
Age --- Dubois --- Bjorkstrand
18 ----- 00 -------- 0
19 ------- 10 -------- 0
20 ------- 15 -------- 8
21 ------- 20 -------- 70
22 ------- 25 -------- 75
23 ------- 30 -------- 80
24 ------- 35 -------- 85
25 ------- 35 -------- 85
26 ------- 35 -------- 85
27 ------- 35 -------- 85
Yes I subtracted 30 goal each year from yours and added 30 goals to Bjorkstrands. So know this is not my expectations at all.
Dubois is hopeful end up doing better, but these numbers is not bad for a 3'Th over all.
and no, Bjorkstrand is probably not going to be that good, even one should never say never.
I will be very happy if either and for sure if both make what you expected from Bjorkstrand.
I however do believe that both have a little chance on making crazy numbers. I also, from junior data has to believe that they will be very equal.
And EspenK, please at lest have the histories fact correct.
Just a little stories.
I will like to tell a little story (true story)
There was a little far far away country, where there for 12 years, the same team was in finale and won most. Still every year all the local experts talk up and down about how much better the other teams player was; Every single year. The expect rate both the home grown and the imports that way. How the Russian player of the other teams was much better than the winning teams American named Todd.
Even now, these same expert talk about how much better the player from other teams, that has reach the NHL, is better than the player that came from this little team from nowhere. How much better the prospect from the other teams is better! Thats even history time after time shows them wrong.
The fun is, these expert lobbied their prospect so much, that they got drafted into NHL first round and high, where people around this little team stayed to their motto. Will beats talent! which is basically the same as: Work hard and show them.
In the end so far, the NHL prospect from this team has been much better than any expectation, where the other teams prospect has had difficulties to reach any where near their expectations.
Yes for everybody else the Todd is Todd Bjorkstrand.
And by the way, this little stories is also histories fact, even a little generalization has been done.
However what this stories shows, how much we all is influence by hypes on some prospects.
There is a great danger, we following the flow. Draft high = high expectation.
So just remember that some of Detroit best player over last few decades was not that high draft picks.
And remember most winning teams need some draft steals, because few is as lucky as Pittsburgh.
So guy's hope for those steals and don't expect us to be Pittsburgh lucky.
