Post-Game Talk: Caps wake up in the 3rd win 3-0

[jetsfan15]

Wow I wasn't serious when I asked if our collapse coincided with reuniting connor scheif.... that's fkn scary

I don’t think today specifically we really lost because of it, but we looked bad when they got reunited in my view. The scary/confusing part is how well we were playing through the first two periods with Connor on the second line (and Scheifele + Ehlers on the first line without Connor), which somehow led to Connor being thrown back onto the first line in the 3rd period. Not sure what we’re trying to accomplish.

 

[Atoyot]

Ehlers played 17 minutes on the dot. Too bad, 1 second less and we likely win.

 

[WolfHouse]

I don’t think today specifically we really lost because of it, but we looked bad when they got reunited in my view. The scary/confusing part is how well we were playing through the first two periods with Connor on the second line (and Scheifele + Ehlers on the first line without Connor), which somehow led to Connor being thrown back onto the first line in the 3rd period. Not sure what we’re trying to accomplish.

Scheif just doesn't want to play with ehlers. There's no other explanation

 

[Inanna]

I've just finished watching most of the game on PVR delay. Here's my unsolicited two cents:

Hellebuyck seems to lose his concentration from time to time. Several plays the Caps made saw our goalie gesturing and turning wildly, obviously losing any awareness of where the puck was. It's rather sad to see our D man carry the puck up the right side while our goalie swerves to the left to cover nobody there.

The third period seemed to illustrate the old cliche that teams on a B2B will fade in the third. While we played well in the first and were much better in the second, we appeared to lose all our energy in the third period.

 

[Mud Turtle]

Interesting stats from Scott Billeck posts on X today:

— In Jets’ first 44 games: +46 goal differential (145-99) in all situations. And their record was 30-10-4. My thoughts: That’s elite.

— In the Jets’ 27 games since then: goal differential is nil, 73-73. And their record is 14-12-1 (since their 34-game run of allowing three goals or fewer ended on Jan. 22). My thoughts: That’s mediocre, akin to a 16th ranked bubble playoff team that will likely get knocked out in the first round.

It begs the question: what are the key changes that transpired around that time where things dramatically changed? Whether that’s systematically, line up wise, etc. While the KFC thing likely isn’t the only thing, it’s a pretty significant one: Ehlers barely playing with Scheifele anymore right around that point in time onward. And KFC replacing Ehlers on that top line.

Which brings us to the next question: Given the clear data, do we want to win and make a cup run, or not? Not sure what the coaches are trying to accomplish/prove here.

There is no doubt that we were much better as a team when Connor was out. The slide coincided with his return, but we can’t necessarily jump to the conclusion that it’s fully related.
What we do know is that this team is not as good defensively with Connor in the lineup.
I made an effort today to just watch Connor in the offensive zone today to really get a feel for how he positions himself and the effort he puts in.
Honestly, it was really ugly.

 

[Hobble]

Jets are just dropping in the standings so they can personally knock Vegas out of the wildcard spot.

 

[ecolad]

I don’t think today specifically we really lost because of it, but we looked bad when they got reunited in my view. The scary/confusing part is how well we were playing through the first two periods with Connor on the second line (and Scheifele + Ehlers on the first line without Connor), which somehow led to Connor being thrown back onto the first line in the 3rd period. Not sure what we’re trying to accomplish.

We will never know what Arneil was thinking with this. Maybe it`s as simple as him wanting some goals after two periods and believing that we wouldn`t get any without reuniting Connor and Scheif? The top line he made up when he moved Connor down was holding its own defensively but not generating much offence. Not sure what he was looking for when he elevated Apples to that line.

 

[DRW204]

— In Jets’ first 44 games: +46 goal differential (145-99) in all situations. And their record was 30-10-4. My thoughts: That’s elite.

— In the Jets’ 27 games since then: goal differential is nil, 73-73. And their record is 14-12-1 (since their 34-game run of allowing three goals or fewer ended on Jan. 22). My thoughts: That’s mediocre, akin to a 16th ranked bubble playoff team that will likely get knocked out in the first round.

It begs the question: what are the key changes that transpired around that time where things dramatically changed? Whether that’s systematically, line up wise, etc. While the KFC thing likely isn’t the only thing, it’s a pretty significant one: Ehlers barely playing with Scheifele anymore right around that point in time onward. And KFC replacing Ehlers on that top line.

Which brings us to the next question: Given the clear data, do we want to win and make a cup run, or not? Not sure what the coaches are trying to accomplish/prove here.

The Jets dealt with two big injuries that first batch of games: vilardi and kc

The team performed at its peak rate with KC being out. Also, The Lowry line was also scoring at a high rate through November, along with Iafallo and perfetti being much better producers in the first half vs the second. I also don't think Monahan has improved the second line form when it was with namestnikov

 

[Cypruss]

And just like that, the games in hand are gone. 5 points up on the wild card with 12 games left to play.

 

[surixon]

Interesting stats from Scott Billeck posts on X today:

— In Jets’ first 44 games: +46 goal differential (145-99) in all situations. And their record was 30-10-4. My thoughts: That’s elite.

— In the Jets’ 27 games since then: goal differential is nil, 73-73. And their record is 14-12-1 (since their 34-game run of allowing three goals or fewer ended on Jan. 22). My thoughts: That’s mediocre, akin to a 16th ranked bubble playoff team that will likely get knocked out in the first round.

It begs the question: what are the key changes that transpired around that time where things dramatically changed? Whether that’s systematically, line up wise, etc. While the KFC thing likely isn’t the only thing, it’s a pretty significant one: Ehlers barely playing with Scheifele anymore right around that point in time onward. And KFC replacing Ehlers on that top line.

Which brings us to the next question: Given the clear data, do we want to win and make a cup run, or not? Not sure what the coaches are trying to accomplish/prove here.

We had a nice thing going with Cole and Name on our second line through the first half. They were a 75 gf% which worked out to a plus 15 in actual goal differential. Our third line was a plus 7 over that time. Scheifele with KC was a plus 3 but without was a plus 12.

So imo without KC we had three dominant outscoring lines the first half of the year. But even with him they still had three outscoring lines but putting him with Mark messed up the flow of both our top 2 lines. Name and Cole worked better away from Ehlers as all three like the puck so having a person on the line in Alex that did the dirty work and went to the net worked for them. Fly with Scheifele just works and Gabe being the net front and defensive anchor really fit with them.

In all honesty I'd like to gp back to Name and Cole but with Toffoli as the RW. It gives them a pure triggerman.

Put Fly and Mark with a big downlow/defensive guy in Nino/Vilardi

Put KC with Monohan and Iafallo/Vilardi

Make a Barron/Nino Lowry and Appelton checking line. This puts back our most successfull pairs of players from the first half and trys to also find a role for KC.

 

[jetsfan15]

We will never know what Arneil was thinking with this. Maybe it`s as simple as him wanting some goals after two periods and believing that we wouldn`t get any without reuniting Connor and Scheif? The top line he made up when he moved Connor down was holding its own defensively but not generating much offence. Not sure what he was looking for when he elevated Apples to that line.

Yeah, I think the big positive today was the defensive performance in the first two periods. Not sure about apples on the top line though lol, maybe throw toffoli up there instead.

That was the key in the first 44 games: Limit other team’s chances as much as possible, like today in the first two periods — statistically against helly’s goaltending this will result in really low goal scoring against us, and in turn wins for us (low scoring outcomes but ultimately positive goal differentials and wins). This was the story in the first 44 games this season. The first two periods today (with Ehlers on top line and Connor on the second line) looked more like first-half-of-season jets. I like our chances in a 0-0 game where we have helly in net and we outshoot a team 20-11. Would have been interesting to see that play out in the 3rd. We’re not the oilers who can win high scoring games regularly. Our strength is to suffocate other team’s chances and play the odds with helly in net that way (and other teams can’t score more than a goal or two on average against helly in these types of low-scoring-chance games). As soon as we start playing run-and-gun and bad defence, we cannot win.

 

[raideralex99]

With 11 games left in the season ... if you have to do line blending at this time of year you are not qualified to be a coach.
What a gong show seriously how are players suppose to built chemistry if you are always juggling the lines.
Time to trade or draft players who can finish their checks along with big tough defencemen to box out opposing players and getting a center who can win draws will help too.

 

[raideralex99]

Interesting stats from Scott Billeck posts on X today:

— In Jets’ first 44 games: +46 goal differential (145-99) in all situations. And their record was 30-10-4. My thoughts: That’s elite.

— In the Jets’ 27 games since then: goal differential is nil, 73-73. And their record is 14-12-1 (since their 34-game run of allowing three goals or fewer ended on Jan. 22). My thoughts: That’s mediocre, akin to a 16th ranked bubble playoff team that will likely get knocked out in the first round.

It begs the question: what are the key changes that transpired around that time where things dramatically changed? Whether that’s systematically, line up wise, etc. While the KFC thing likely isn’t the only thing, it’s a pretty significant one: Ehlers barely playing with Scheifele anymore right around that point in time onward. And KFC replacing Ehlers on that top line.

Which brings us to the next question: Given the clear data, do we want to win and make a cup run, or not? Not sure what the coaches are trying to accomplish/prove here.

Well the last 3 games alone is -9 ... the numbers will always look bad during a losing streak it only makes sense you win more games by scoring more goals than the other team.
I think mentally the knee injury effective Connor's play ... he did say he is 100% recovered so maybe he is gun shy.

 

[Buffdog]

T

You continue making it sound like anyone who has any reservations regarding the Jets play as of late are out of their minds and all is well in Jets land. Do you really believe that?

Not one person has stated that no other team loses, or gets shutout yet here you are implying that it’s been written all over this board. Most of what you deem to be negative comments are posters raising legitimate concerns.

The Jets had been considered a top team and a serious Cup contender. Their play over the last month shows that may not be the case.

So if you want to pretend like nothing is wrong, have at it. After all everyone is free to follow their team as they see fit. But please get off your soapbox and allow those of us who actually want to have a discussion about what we feel is going wrong with the team as of late to do so without trying to imply we are lesser fans than you

I'm not optimistic about the way the team is trending, but I have seen enough of what they're capable of when they play their game to know that they can still be effective if they turn it around

The difference is that there are a ton of people on here writing them off completely. I don't see the point in that. Sure, they might get bounced forst round. But what is bitching TODAY about that possibility going to achieve?

I find it funny that nobody is asking the obvious question.. and that is "WHY has their play slid lately". Without knowing the answer to that, it's really tough to know whether or not they can get back on track

So of you want to discuss the reason for this recent poor play, I'm all for it. I've said in other posts that I think an issue is that "Winnipeg Jets Hockey" (high tempo, high pressure) is very demanding physically and that as the team has become worn down and dinged up, it's harder for them to execute. Maybe they know that and they're saving themselves for the playoffs since they've essentially punched their ticket and will end up with a tough match up in the first round any way you cut the cookie.

If that's the case and they're pacing themselves, I'm fine with it as long as they ramp it back up leading into the playoffs

 

[Jack7222]

There is no doubt that we were much better as a team when Connor was out. The slide coincided with his return, but we can’t necessarily jump to the conclusion that it’s fully related.
What we do know is that this team is not as good defensively with Connor in the lineup.
I made an effort today to just watch Connor in the offensive zone today to really get a feel for how he positions himself and the effort he puts in.
Honestly, it was really ugly.

Maybe his continual return to the top line has killed the idea that the team was meritocratic based on playing the right way.

 

[raideralex99]

How is this for a stat ... in the last 10 games
The Jets with a 5-5 record is the worst record in the Central Division tied with the Hawks and Coyotes 5-5.
plus of the 15 playoff teams the Jets along with Vegas 5-5 record is the worst.
Ouch that's not want you want going into the playoffs.

 

[ThinIce61]

Colorado 26-12-3/20-8-2
Dallas 24-12-5/19-7-4
Nashville 22-18-1/20-7-3
(Haven't lost in regulation in 17 games.)

Winnipeg 28-9-4/16-13-1


No fancy stats that can be interpreted in 100 different ways. Just straight facts. A bad movie we''ve watched several times in the 2nd half of seasons.

This team is simply not good enough to win it all. Whether it's coaching or the players and mostly I lean towards the players because they are the ones out on the ice.

I have zero problem with the eternal optimists and their rose colored glasses who don't see a problem. I'd love to see the Jets hoist a Cup but really barring luck and or unforseen circumstances befalling the true contenders the Jets won't be in that position. I'll defend your right to go on thinking everything is fine and Jets will turn this around (and maybe they will) but for the rose colored glasses crowd have the courtesy to allow the other side their voice without snide remarks about fair weather fans or like. Scroll by, put people on ignore or STFU.

Full stop. Have a great evening. Get ready for Tuesday which might just be an awful night the way things have been going.

 

[Buffdog]

I hear that ignore button works both ways

 

[Buffdog]

Interesting fact:

9 of the 16 teams currently sitting in a playoff spot have either 5 or 6 wins in their last 10 games. I wonder if all their fanbases are in full meltdown mode too

Edit: I'd like to also point out that Dallas, Colorado and Nashville (who are all on heaters) have played 10 games since the start of March (24 days) and we've played 13 including two back-to-backs. Colorado has had one back to back and 4 2 day breaks, Dallas has had one back-to-back and 3 2 day breaks AND a three day break, and Nashville has had one back-to-back and 4 2 day breaks

As I mentionned, we've had 2 back-to-backs and one 2 day break

 

[imec]

To the “Don’t mention the loss!” crowd…

It’s entirely possible (and 100% valid) to call out substandard play and express concern without giving up on your team. I’ll be there until the last second - and return in the fall.

 

[DEANYOUNGBLOOD17]

Eh…….

“what R you going to do?”

 

[raideralex99]

Looks like the Oilers lost again … Ottawa 3/4 on the PPs.
Look out Jets the Oilers are going to be hungry.
Islanders go back to losing … shutout by the Devils 4-0. I guess they used up all their goals on the Jets.

 

[Zippity]

What a crappy start time
When is the tank thread starting?

 

[ThinIce61]

So this is actually regarding the Islanders game but im a rebel and not going back to look for that thread as i already had this open but Scheifele and Lowry were a combined 3-24 on faceoffs.
Is that even possible? We're they on their cell phones. I know that winning faceoffs is not considered overly important by some and that's fine but I also know that possession is nine tenths of the law and without possession you aren't going to score.

Wouldn't the law of averages balance things out better than that. Thats an absolutely gross stat, never mind the final score.

 

[raideralex99]

So this is actually regarding the Islanders game but im a rebel and not going back to look for that thread as i already had this open but Scheifele and Lowry were a combined 3-24 on faceoffs.
Is that even possible? We're they on their cell phones. I know that winning faceoffs is not considered overly important by some and that's fine but I also know that possession is nine tenths of the law and without possession you aren't going to score.

Wouldn't the law of averages balance things out better than that. Thats an absolutely gross stat, never mind the final score.

You are correct faceoffs are important but the stats guys what to keep their XGF jobs.
Isles were only 43% on faceoffs today against the Devils and lost 4-0 compare to 56% vs the Jets and won 6-3 the day before.
How many goals have we seen scored on the Jets from the faceoffs in these 3 games ... at least one the first goal in every game.