Prospect Info: Caps Top Prospects General Discussion Thread Vol. 2 - 2021-22

[Langway]

NHL Mock Draft 2021: From the Sabres through the Cup winner, Corey Pronman picks the entire first round

Some industry chatter on expected ranges for players in the first round, albeit still somewhat early. Johnston mentioned as a probable late first round pick. Kirsanov expected to go between 25-50. Nothing too surprising. Chayka at 20 seems pretty rich. The best forwards not included seem to be Pastujov, Stankoven, Pinelli, Samoskevich & Stromgren.

 

[Holtbyisms]

Ok Hershey regulars. In your opinion who is ready to step up and make NHL impact with Caps next year? I was reading really positive stuff about the defensive studs, McMichael, and AJF. Do you think they make the NHL roster next season and add youth/speed to the lineup? I was pretty impressed with Clark's production before his injury and where do you think he'll fit in with Hershey next year?

Thanks for those who regularly watch Hershey games and for your input.

I really don't know if I'd say anybody is over incubated and READY just yet but it all depends on what BMac does. If he moved some guys out to open up some holes and we wanted to roll with youth there's a few in Hershey who I think will get a look. I really think had Beck Malenstyn not lost a season this year he'd be knocking down Haglin/Hathaways doors to try and get in the lineup. Hopefully he recovers well and has a good camp because I thought this coming year was going to be his year. McMichael is probably the only guy who could play in a top 6 role in right now. Love to see him get another full year in the AHL but we might not have that luxury. AJF and Pilon could do some spot duty here and there I think. AJF would probably have some rough adjustment periods if he were to displace Haglin but I don't think you would see much of a production drop off there. Potentially some defensive lapses that could be learned upon though as he gets up to speed. One more season for both he and Pilon I think in Hershey would be huge. Don't think Gersich has the stuff to be an NHLer. I hope I'm wrong but I'm just not seeing it. They gave him another year to prove it though so I'd suspect unless we're fighting tooth and nail for a playoff spot he sees a few "prove it" games. Organization really likes Pinho so he could do some spot duty as well but not feeling optimistic about his long term NHL success. Leason even though and overage draftee still really needs time in Hershey but started to really show signs of life last season. Definitely worth keeping on the radar and not writing off yet. On D I'd say Fever will be in DC next year but keep an eye out for Alexeyev too...he's going to impress and might start knocking pretty loudly on the door to get in. Ultimately I think it's a number game for both of them though and it will depend on what BMac can do to make room for them in the lineup. I feel like both of them could step in tomorrow and play well (with the occasional boneheaded rookie mistakes).

So to answer I guess I'd say regular jersey capable players are Malenstyn, McMichael, Fehervary, Alexeyev.

Spot duty/on the cusp but not ready(may never be in some cases)...Pilon, AJF, Pinho, Gersich.

Give it another year and see...Clark, Leason, Riat, Snively, Protas, Sutter

 

[Langway]

NHL Mock Draft: Scott Wheeler maps out who goes after Owen Power in the first round

Svechkov to DET with the Mantha pick would be very strong value for the Wings. Digging in more on the second round the available depth makes me optimistic. Kisakov and Johnson stand out the most from a tools standpoint as under the radar types that may present very strong value. No idea how long they last but neither has much of any first round buzz it seems. Neither are the biggest but it's a skating game and those two have some special qualities. Even if the board goes against them they should have a shot at solid raw upside. Mailloux, Knies, Dach or Roulette would all be fairly typical picks for them and each has some strong qualities. The first three are fairly big and Roulette is pretty smart and plays bigger than he is. I have eleven defensemen 32-55 after none at the end of the first round after Ceuelemans at 20. Wheeler doesn't have any after Chayka at 20 in this mock (who I have outside of the first). It'll be interesting to see if teams target need and change that up or whether a run forms early in the second round. With the success a guy like Adam Fox I wonder if Behrens or Johnson go higher than anticipated, perhaps sneaking into the first round.

 

[txpd]

I am not sure how confident you can be with any of these picks. We are talking about drafting as 18 years olds players in many cases that didn't play at all last season. You are effectively drafting 17 year olds. I would think this draft is a major crap shoot

 

[Langway]

One has to go all the way to 43 on The Hockey News draft rankings to find a player that didn't play league hockey and they were even able to put something out there at the U18s. Only three in their top 100 didn't play at all last season. The only league that didn't play was the OHL and most of their better prospects were able to both play some lower level European hockey and then also compete at the spring U18s (winning Gold for Canada in many cases). The Caps also have at least one scout that evaluates players the year prior to their draft year. For most of them they've been on the radar for some time. Thanks to no combine again teams may not have as much info on physical maturity/progression but that was in play last year as well. It's more in the Rounds 4-7 range where teams may not have as much info in order to build conviction but that's still limited to a pretty narrow subset of players and will likely be compensated for by really delving into character/off-ice. Teams adapt. Those with a sufficiently detailed approach aren't going to be swayed much. Even some of the mid-to-late round OHLers were able to organize an event recently for scouts to put something out there.

I think the depth from Rounds 2-4 is decent enough to where the Caps should be able to add three decent prospects. Depending on how the draft falls I think they could wind up with a Protas-level prospect in the 75 range. At 55 a middle six forward or 3-5D is a fair projection. It's really about tools and future development. It doesn't take a ton of video to distinguish who paces a class, is furthest along in some areas and get a general sense of their existing identity. It's still about making the best projection with the available data. A little less game data in some cases isn't a game changer. It could introduce some risk but it depends on the criteria used and the extent of research done into makeup, etc. With where the game is headed and the tech available it's a much easier process. 30 years ago maybe the process could have been wrecked but now? I don't think it'll be impacted much. If anything it's a weaker draft at the very top and perhaps through the first round. Maybe there aren't that many gems or sleepers but I don't think it's COVID-related. It's just cyclical. It's a decent draft and they should be able to get some decent prospects. It's not much of a limb.

 

[Langway]

NHL Draft Confidential: Inside what scouts and executives really think about the top prospects

Svozil strikes me as a guy that could slide that the Caps might opt for given how long he's been on the radar internationally. He's sort of vanilla and at a position of some depth but could maybe be a Kempny type. Not a great skater just yet but he likes to get involved transitionally. Dach also seems like the sort they'd like, shooting for upside in the belief his skating progresses, but I think he's probably gone by 55. I'd much rather they shoot for upside at this stage. Not to say they should avoid grittier bottom six types--though I'd wager L'Heureux & Boucher are gone--but they need to put greater stock in upside in a way that's less one-dimensionally finesse. Maybe it's a cyclical thing and a function of available options in part but it's a clear area of weakness lately both in drafting and further development. They need to be better since it's so crucial in defining them organizationally.

In a somewhat weak draft at 55/75 playing it safe may not do much. Better to take some big swings than opt for an ultimately marginal upgrade over a future depth player like, say, Leason. Easier said than done but I'd like to see that sort of ambition, even if it doesn't work out. For that reason and also organizational need Mailloux remains an intriguing fit. We'll see where McKenzie's rankings puts him in a couple weeks but making it to 55 seems fairly likely. Tuomaala is another one that's more finesse and soft but may end up in their range with the most boom/bust. They need to think a little more about future cap value when evaluating and tilt more toward risk rather than just amassing depth. Depth can be obtained fairly easily unless there are special distinguishing qualities.

 

[Langway]

NHL Mock Draft 2021: From 1 to 224, Corey Pronman projects all seven rounds

Won't post too much here. It was an exercise in part of Pronman projecting ranges for players. McKenzie's list next week should provide further clarity on options. The big shocker is Logan Mailloux not being included at all. See his prospects board thread for more on why that may be. I think he's still got a shot but he may not go until the fourth round at the earliest. Some players that go within 10 picks of 55 are Svozil, Klimovich, Stillman, Behrens, Olsson, Johnson, Kostenko, Heimosalmi & Kidney. He went with Olsson. I'd probably go with Johnson, Heimosalmi, Martino, Helenius, Morrow or Gaudreau in that scenario. Stillman I think makes tons of sense for them as a Laviolette kind of player (he coached his dad) but he's probably gone. Svozil again seems like a typical pick for them but he goes a few picks earlier. Even then one of those RD in Johnson/Heimosalmi/Kostenko are probably better fits. Jackson Blake (Jason's son) was their third rounder but Nolan Allan, Josh Doan (Shane's son), Nadeau and Roulette are also pretty strong options.

Stromgren, Boucher, Dach & Kisakov all going top 45 knock off the majority of my personal favorites. In this scenario I could see them wanting to move up for Boucher, Kisakov, Pinelli, Robertsson, Poltapov or Stillman. Not sure including 75 with 55 to move up is worth it, though. Will more GMs try to move down due to uncertainty to add more picks? Guessing that combo only moves them up 10-12 picks or so but who knows. It's probably not worth it unless they don't have a strong group of targets at 75. He has them taking a goaltender late and I see them taking one at some point. He also has them taking a big Finn winger in the fourth. As if.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

NHL Mock Draft 2021: From 1 to 224, Corey Pronman projects all seven rounds

Won't post too much here. It was an exercise in part of Pronman projecting ranges for players. McKenzie's list next week should provide further clarity on options. The big shocker is Logan Mailloux not being included at all. See his prospects board thread for more on why that may be. I think he's still got a shot but he may not go until the fourth round at the earliest. Some players that go within 10 picks of 55 are Svozil, Klimovich, Stillman, Behrens, Olsson, Johnson, Kostenko, Heimosalmi & Kidney. He went with Olsson. I'd probably go with Johnson, Heimosalmi, Martino, Helenius, Morrow or Gaudreau in that scenario. Stillman I think makes tons of sense for them as a Laviolette kind of player (he coached his dad) but he's probably gone. Svozil again seems like a typical pick for them but he goes a few picks earlier. Even then one of those RD in Johnson/Heimosalmi/Kostenko are probably better fits. Jackson Blake (Jason's son) was their third rounder but Nolan Allan, Josh Doan (Shane's son), Nadeau and Roulette are also pretty strong options.

Stromgren, Boucher, Dach & Kisakov all going top 45 knock off the majority of my personal favorites. In this scenario I could see them wanting to move up for Boucher, Kisakov, Pinelli, Robertsson, Poltapov or Stillman. Not sure including 75 with 55 to move up is worth it, though. Will more GMs try to move down due to uncertainty to add more picks? Guessing that combo only moves them up 10-12 picks or so but who knows. It's probably not worth it unless they don't have a strong group of targets at 75. He has them taking a goaltender late and I see them taking one at some point. He also has them taking a big Finn winger in the fourth. As if.

A LHD with our top pick this draft will not go over well. Pronman is normally pretty good but I’m not sure how much he thought about team’s existing prospects when making selections, especially after the first round. I know anyone they take at 55 won’t play with the big club realistically for at least three years so maybe the pipeline looks different then but who knows.

 

[Hivemind]

A LHD with our top pick this draft will not go over well. Pronman is normally pretty good but I’m not sure how much he thought about team’s existing prospects when making selections, especially after the first round. I know anyone they take at 55 won’t play with the big club realistically for at least three years so maybe the pipeline looks different then but who knows.

Best. Player. Available.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Best. Player. Available.

Sure, but at 55 I imagine there are a handful of guys all graded similarly. If one is pretty clearly above the rest and he’s a LHD then so be it but if there are 3-4 guys who all have a 7.5 grade and project similarly in the NHL then I imagine position comes into play.

 

[Hivemind]

Sure, but at 55 I imagine there are a handful of guys all graded similarly. If one is pretty clearly above the rest and he’s a LHD then so be it but if there are 3-4 guys who all have a 7.5 grade and project similarly in the NHL then I imagine position comes into play.

By the time any non-elite prospect is ready, the farm system will look substantially different than it does today. Outside of controlling the flow of goaltenders, position should not be considered.

 

[Langway]

A LHD with our top pick this draft will not go over well. Pronman is normally pretty good but I’m not sure how much he thought about team’s existing prospects when making selections, especially after the first round. I know anyone they take at 55 won’t play with the big club realistically for at least three years so maybe the pipeline looks different then but who knows.

If they're the top talent available that's fine. I doubt it clearly lines up that way but you never know. Behrens & Svozil probably come closest but I'm not sure they'd clearly be BPA due to upside. They need to target truly complete players...not just a shutdown type or a more one-dimensional finesse flake scorer. They need competitors in all facets as they increasingly need stronger play drivers as complementary presences. It needs to be much more of an operational philosophy motivating the process and eventual selections. Finding a true building block heavy lifter at 55 is probably remote but it nonetheless should be the objective. There's risk in going too vanilla in pursuit of a jack-of-all-trades type but hockey sense and character need to be primary movers. If you're going one-dimensional those dimensions better be superb. It's a delicate balance comparing various player types and projecting out but versatility needs to be more highly valued. Trustworthiness needs to be valued so as to minimize headaches and movement down the road, building a greater sense of continuity and a more selective, positive team identity. Those are cultural imperatives they need to be more attuned to as they become increasingly unable to simply rely upon existing skilled foundations. Character still matters. They need to continue to act as builders even with the foundations largely in place. There's always room for improvement and that's the ambition they need to attack every avenue of team-building.

It's why, in addition to positional need, I really like Johnson & Heimosalmi in that range for them. Both are very modern mobile right-shot defensemen and two of the bigger sleepers IMO. They're much better talents as modern defenders than a Bowey or Siegenthaler were as later second rounders due to their toolboxes. What they lack is ideal height/length but I wouldn't be too concerned. Even with the top 4 D of all of the final four playoff teams predominantly bigger mobile defenders it's also a league where Adam Fox won the Norris and Makar was a deserved finalist at about the same size. They don't currently have the goods to be dominant forces as NHLers but I could see both being along the lines of a Leddy, Schmidt or Weegar. In this draft at that spot that's strong value. As the forward core ages I like the idea of increasingly elevating the blueline to the point where it's their main source of strength. As-is it's not really close from an athleticism and skill standpoint when games really elevate. It's an area I'd continue to fortify with more skilled upside rather than mere projected steadiness. Steadiness is often not enough. Heimosalmi may possess more easy offensive-upside but Johnson's skating grades so highly that in time it's intriguing to imagine just how good he can be. His on-ice/off-ice splits in the USHL were ridiculous and his agility really pops. His top-end speed and acceleration may not be great but it's bound to improve as he gets stronger. Beyond any positional considerations those two are the toolsiest and most complete options in their range I think. Absent a tempting grinder sliding like L'Heureux, Boucher or Stillman those two would be my main bets. Those grinders are probably too hard to pass up from a competitiveness/playoff style/win-now standpoint. You figure they won't last that long and will require moving up, though. Plenty of teams are on the lookout for that.

Gaudreau could be an upside play in net, as some think he's a first round talent. He was an early OHL pick but there's risk in that all they have to go on this past season was the U18s (where he backstopped Canada to gold). I could see that as a possibility if they're waffling if Samsonov has the goods upstairs to become the guy long-term. It would make sense, even if he's at least a few years away and maybe not as far along as he would be after another normal OHL season. Then the big Finnish center Helenius is another intriguing option. When in doubt the G/D/C building block staples are sound investments. Maybe a winger slides presenting excellent relative offensive upside but I struggle to see a great fit from Pronman's ranges. Martino perhaps could but he's more of a playmaker than they typically target.

 

[Langway]

NHL Draft prospect Logan Mailloux faces uncertain future after criminal charge in Sweden - Daily Faceoff

More than you ever wanted to know about the Mailloux situation. Again, a fourth rounder at the earliest for me. It's a situation where hockey ops won't be the ones making that call. What Mitchell Miller did was way worse yet he was still drafted (even if ultimately released). Who knows.

 

[Holtbyisms]

NHL Draft prospect Logan Mailloux faces uncertain future after criminal charge in Sweden - Daily Faceoff

More than you ever wanted to know about the Mailloux situation. Again, a fourth rounder at the earliest for me. It's a situation where hockey ops won't be the ones making that call. What Mitchell Miller did was way worse yet he was still drafted (even if ultimately released). Who knows.

Draft him. Only shot at a top teir player in this draft. If he doesn't work out nothing lost.

 

[Langway]

Several NHL teams drop Logan Mailloux from draft list after conviction in Sweden

Another piece on Maillioux reporting at least nine teams have dropped him from their lists. Purely on-ice he's hard to peg given the lack of OHL resume but I don't think his raw upside is immense and he's really going to have his work cut out for him. I don't think he has the polish to be considered a top tier talent. He was at lower levels but then how much of that was due to his frame? I'm not sure about his athleticism and decision-making. He has size and he'll get put through the paces by the Knights, who remain supportive, for at least a couple seasons if all goes right. Those ties could lead to the Caps remaining interested. We'll see. Interestingly his Central Scouting comparison is John Carlson but I think he's more of a lesser Evan Bouchard. By the fourth round maybe the risk becomes tolerable but I wouldn't want to be the team patting him on the back at a more premium price. Even that's iffy. Even as a somewhat talent-depleted franchise as far as the pipeline goes in a somewhat weaker draft I don't know that there's tremendous appeal in making that selection. Even in less of a major hockey market you're inevitably going to get articles written and mentions made in the off-season and then again once rookie camp rolls around. And then again whenever he's in the news for other reasons, even if he's well behaved. It's going to follow him. He's going to be known as that guy. In this age it's going to scare a lot of teams off. Beyond all that ultimately I'm not sure he's definitely better than someone like Iorio from Brandon/WHL who is more of a third rounder. He could be but that's a ton of risk for any team to take on and a lot of distraction/bad press to introduce that's very avoidable.

ProspectBios2021_Text.pdf (nhl.com)

Central Scouting .pdf of player bios, scouting reports and comparisons.



Very interesting.

 

[Eirikrautha]

Several NHL teams drop Logan Mailloux from draft list after conviction in Sweden



Very interesting.

Oh no! Get the fainting couch out, ladies!

Either this guy is a millennial and hasn't been at this very long, or he's full of crap. This is a league where players used to hire hookers to wear out opposing players the night before. The 70's and 80's were as sleazy as a sport could get (drugs, booze, women, etc.) and more. Sure, the kid did something wrong. But unless half the draft is rapists and molesters, there's no way these kids have more "character concerns" than previous drafts. The microscope is larger, but the "concerns" are no where near as prevalent as 30-40 years ago (Paging Dino Ciccarelli...). Everybody thinks the world started the year they were born...

 

[Anahome]

There's risk in going too vanilla in pursuit of a jack-of-all-trades type but hockey sense and character need to be primary movers. If you're going one-dimensional those dimensions better be superb. It's a delicate balance comparing various player types and projecting out but versatility needs to be more highly valued. Trustworthiness needs to be valued so as to minimize headaches and movement down the road, building a greater sense of continuity and a more selective, positive team identity. Those are cultural imperatives they need to be more attuned to as they become increasingly unable to simply rely upon existing skilled foundations. Character still matters.

Burakovsky and Vrana didn't fit the Cups play-off system. It's frustrating to see the 1 round picks to go for cheap. Criteria that was used to draft them didn't meet the Caps needs (win playoffs games). Picks not only need to be the best available players with good hockey IQ and character but be able to transition into the Caps core, at least 1 round picks, who have higher chance to get into Caps organization. Burakovsky and Vrana are good players but lost in value in trade because they couldn't proper compliment the core.
2+ round picks are different. They are mostly traded. The better players in the prospect pipeline in disregard of position, the easier to do trades.

 

[IafrateOvie34]

Draft him. Only shot at a top teir player in this draft. If he doesn't work out nothing lost.

I agree. I believe his apology is sincere also.

 

[Langway]

NHL Draft: Who could the Maple Leafs target with their first draft pick at No. 57

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

NHL Draft prospect Logan Mailloux faces uncertain future after criminal charge in Sweden - Daily Faceoff

More than you ever wanted to know about the Mailloux situation. Again, a fourth rounder at the earliest for me. It's a situation where hockey ops won't be the ones making that call. What Mitchell Miller did was way worse yet he was still drafted (even if ultimately released). Who knows.

I’m not advocating for or against drafting this kid but yeah what Mitchell Miller did was night and say worse. That dude was sadistic and terrorized a poor disabled kid over a number of years and then played the victim card when he got called out on it, plus his dad was a royal asshole given the dad’s comments during the fallout. I guess the apple didn’t fall far from the tree. He’s a piece of shit who deserves to get his ass kicked.

 

[Mosby]

 

[Langway]

2021 NHL Draft: Metropolitan Division needs

WASHINGTON CAPITALS
Top priority: Depth on defense
First pick: No. 55
The situation: Alex Ovechkin played the final season of a 13-year, $124 million contract he signed Jan. 10, 2008 and can become an unrestricted free agent. The 35-year-old captain led Washington with 24 goals in 45 regular-season games but missed an NHL career-high 11 games, including seven during an eight-game stretch from April 24-May 8 because of a lower-body injury and four while in NHL COVID-19 protocol from Jan. 20-29. Center prospect Connor McMichael (No. 25, 2019) is expected to crack the lineup next season, and there are a few other forward prospects in the pipeline. The Capitals have made nine picks the past two years and one is a defenseman (Martin Has, No. 153, 2019). They have five picks in the draft, none in the first round.
Possible fits: Stanislav Svozil, D, Brno (CZREP); Logan Mailloux, D, London (OHL); Scott Morrow, D, Shattuck-St. Mary's Prep (HIGH-MN)

Can't afford not to go BPA when not picking until that late. BPA is very subjective but they've got to try to maximize value regardless. I don't doubt they trade up given recent trends but short of that it's a matter of who slides.

 

[um]

Martin Has is a surprising mention over Fever dream and Alex Alex

 

[Hivemind]

Martin Has is a surprising mention over Fever dream and Alex Alex

It’s highlighting CHL talent. Fehervary didn’t play in the CHL. AA did so his omission is surprising, but maybe they’re doing something political after he played in the KHL this year.

 

[JohnCarlsaurus]

It’s highlighting CHL talent. Fehervary didn’t play in the CHL. AA did so his omission is surprising, but maybe they’re doing something political after he played in the KHL this year.

But they mentioned Protas, who like AA started out in the WHL and then played briefly in the KHL. I think they just forgot about him (AA)