Caps PK issue

[francaisvolantsparis]

After 32 NHL games Capitals are 27 worst team at penalty killing. Taking 8.86 goals every 60 SH minutes.

I did some research to find out what can be the reason (stats wise) for this. I only consider hereunder the 4 on 5 PK time. Bold numbers represents the GA/60 at 4 on 5 SH.

1. Goalies are not the problem. Copley did better then Holtby at SH Sv% and both are good then our key players are on ice (Eller, Stephenson, DSP and Dowd);

2. Bowey 8.31, Orpik 9.32, Kuzy 11.92 and Boyd 18.44 are bad/not good no matter who is on the ice with them;

3. Niskanen is better with Orlov and Carlson is better with Kempny. If we exclude Kuznetsov and Boyd: Orlov-Niskanen are 4.13, Kempny-Carlson are 4.39, Orlov-Carlson are 11.07 and Kempny-Niskanen are 16.9;

4. The reason why Kempny-Niskanen and Orlov-Carlson had not did well are Oshie and Wilson. Backstrom with Oshie is at 16.36 while Backstrom without Oshie is at 5.6. Wilson is at 9.29. Without Oshie, Wilson, Kuzy and Boyd: Kempny-Niskanen have 0.00 and Orlov-Carlson 6.61;

5. Without Orpik, Bowey, Boyd, Wilson, Oshie and Kuzy our best PK forwards are: Stephenson 3.86, DSP 2.84, Dowd 5.6, Eller 3,62 and Backstrom 6,78.

Conclusions:

- Our poor PK performance is massively due to the failed experiments (at this point) with new players (Boyd, Kuzy, Bowey) and underperforming experts (Wilson, Oshie, Orpik).

- Our G are fine.
- Our D are ok. If Orpik is not back to his best PK level ever, we may seriously need another (5th) defensemen who can kill penalties. Siegenthaler?
- Our C are fine. With Eller, Dowd and Backstrom we have three good PKs. Stephenson can play C too.
- Our W are not enough. Our top PKs from the past are in trouble this season: Oshie and Wilson for some reason did not well (new system?). DSP and Stephenson are super strong, but it seems that one of the two may be healthy scratched for some games. Jaskin, Burakovsky or even Vrana or Connolly may be the solution, but do we have time for the experiments? Should we give more time to Oshie and Wilson? Should we trade?

What do you think?

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[traparatus]

I have a few thoughts.

-Penalty kill was not very good last season.
-Both Wilson and Oshie were out for a very long time.
-When penalty killing group stabilizes, we will be right were we were last year. Pretty mediocre.

I think our penalty kill has been trending down for some time as players like Beagle and Alzner got older and slower and were eventually let go. Daniel Winnik was our primary PK winger the last time our PK was good. Orlov was not killing penalties at all.

Niskanen is older and is not quite the defensive power he used to be. Carlson was more effective on the PK when he was playing 21 minutes a night.

When you say GOOD or NOT GOOD, what is it in relation to?

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

''Good'' means the player takes less than 1.00 goal per 10 minutes of 4 on 5 SH (6.00 goal per 60 min). If all your players are ''good'' and so your team takes less than one goal per 10 mins of PK, you are the ~ top 5/6 team in the NHL at penalty killing.

In 2015-2018 seasons Capitals were top 5 NHL team at PK.

Here you can find our best PK players from last three season:

Player	4 on 5 GA per 60 min	4 on 5 GA per 10 min
Chandler Stephenson (LW/C)	4.77	0.79
Karl Alzner (D)	4.78	0.79
Devante Smith-Pelly (RW)	4.98	0.83
Brooks Laich (C/W)	5.04	0.84
Taylor Chorney (D)	5.16	0.86
Jason Chimera (LW)	5.2	0.86
Dmitry Orlov (D)	5.3	0.88
Tom Wilson (RW)	5.45	0.9
Lars Eller (C)	5.46	0.91
Justin Williams (RW)	5.47	0.91
Daniel Winnik (LW)	5.52	0.92
T.J. Oshie (R)	5.85	0.97
Matt Niskanen (D)	5.93	0.98
John Carlson (D)	5.99	0.99
Jay Beagle (C)	6.18	1.03
Brooks Orpik (D)	6.37	1.06
Nicklas Backstrom (C)	6.42	1.07
Nate Schmidt (D)	6.53	1.08
Alex Chiasson (RW)	9.54	1.59

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[twabby]

Exceedingly unpopular opinion: their PK is fine and their numbers stink due to small sample sizes.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

Exceedingly unpopular opinion: their PK is fine and their numbers stink due to small sample sizes.

Also, Playoff Holtby changes the PK dynamic significantly.

 

[Corby78]

it started looking better than went in the tank again. Part of that has come from bad bounces (Holtby off the back of the net/crazy rebound bounce off a D). But whatever it is, it needs to improve, its putting a lot of strain on a slumping PP and our 5v5 which thankfully has been strong.

 

[Langway]

Exceedingly unpopular opinion: their PK is fine and their numbers stink due to small sample sizes.

I think that goes for Wilson in particular who's only killed about 33 minutes so far. He's averaging the most of any forward when he's in, as he should, but it's still only 13 games. Him settling in and Orpik coming back will help. As-is Kuznetsov isn't cut out for it and hasn't been getting shifts lately. The main problem with trading for a PKing forward is it likely results in Stephenson or DSP sitting and they're one of the better secondary options. Maybe in time Vrana will be trusted with that but it's more of a down the line thing. I'm kind of dumb-founded by Boyd getting PK time. I don't think he has the actual tools beyond simple energy for it and the numbers bear that out.

43/44 and a better 2 fixes it mostly, at least more toward mediocre level. Niskanen stands out the most IMO in the numbers as needing to tighten up given just how important he is. Oshie & Dowd also stand out if they're to have deeper quality options.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Get better Orpik. It’s no coincidence.

 

[traparatus]

Also, Playoff Holtby changes the PK dynamic significantly.

Our PK was subpar in the playoffs with playoff Holtby.

Perhaps that shows that you don't need to have a great penalty kill to win. Alternatively, we got lucky and a major flaw did not bite us in the ass. I'm really not sure.

 

[traparatus]

Get better Orpik. It’s no coincidence.

When Orpik is out there killing penalties, we get scored on a lot.

I'd like to see him healthy and playing but let's not create a narrative where there isn't one.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

When Orpik is out there killing penalties, we get scored on a lot.

I'd like to see him healthy and playing but let's not create a narrative where there isn't one.

The narrative that he helps the PK?

Sorry you don’t like the truth.

 

[traparatus]

The narrative that he helps the PK?

Sorry you don’t like the truth.

I don't really get it. Helping the PK involves us not getting scored on and suppressing scoring chances against, does it not? Orpik does quite poorly in both departments.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I don't really get it. Helping the PK involves us not getting scored on and suppressing scoring chances against, does it not? Orpik does quite poorly in both departments.

If you disagree that Orpik helps the PK, then you’ve never listened to anything every player and coach has ever said when asked about the guy, much less what we’ve seen on ice.

Moving on if you don’t get the base facts.

 

[traparatus]

If you disagree that Orpik helps the PK, then you’ve never listened to anything every player and coach has ever said when asked about the guy, much less what we’ve seen on ice.

Moving on if you don’t get the base facts.

I don't disagree that he will help a little.

I disagree that with Orpik as your #1 penalty killing defenseman our PK will ever be good (in the top 3rd in the league). It just sounds like you believe that missing Orpik is preventing us from achieving PK greatness. That's just entirely not true. It, in combination with Wilson situation, is preventing us from reaching 'barely passable' level.

Niskanen has taken over Orpik's PK duties and has handled it very poorly so far. Orpik's return should be a great boost to him.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I think he makes the unit good enough for the playoffs. That’s all we need.

 

[txpd]

Orpik is a primary on the PK and Kempny doesn't belong there. Orlov is just struggling. I think Orlov is a reason why Niskanen looks a little off. The forwards have been off all season and this makes the defense look bad.

Wilson and Oshie have missed significant time. Dowd is new. Kuzy was new to the PK. The entire forward force is trying to adapt from a triagle and a chaser forward to 2 chasing forwards. Mistakes in that change creates a lot of open ice.

The whole thing needs time and some stability.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

We need Orpik, Oshie and Wilson to be back full time.

 

[traparatus]

I think he makes the unit good enough for the playoffs. That’s all we need.

You might well be right about that.

I'm a little hesitant on this. Our PK ran at 76% in the playoffs. I think we can all agree, that's not great. Between an absolutely dominant PP and great 5-on-5, the team was able to overcome this. I don't think we want to make a habit of it, though.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

We need Orpik, Oshie and Wilson to be back full time.

Sure, that’s optimal.

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

I think they are trying new players at the PK and there are some growing pains. I expect they will get better at it as time goes on. Now is the time to experiment and not during the playoffs.

They are playing the Pens next and you know they will get 5+ PPs so they better be sharp.

 

[kicksavedave]

I think they are trying new players at the PK and there are some growing pains. I expect they will get better at it as time goes on. Now is the time to experiment and not during the playoffs.

They are playing the Pens next and you know they will get 5+ PPs so they better be sharp.

Its not just new players, its also a new PK system, designed to be more aggressive than previous, which should help come playoff time but the Caps clearly have a ways to go to get the new system down pat.

As has been pointed out, Caps weren't great at PK last year even in the playoff when they were winning a Cup. In the games where they took a lot of penalties, like Games 2,3,4 vs TB, they lost. So they won despite their PK, not because of it. So, old PK not great, new players, some top performers out for long stretches, a new system, yeah we should expect them to be not perfectly in sync so far. As txpd points out in a different thread, they have time to get it together but they have a long way to go to get there.

 

[TRASHCAT]

Well theres plenty of time to fix it

 

[Raikkonen]

Couple of years ago nobody would say Orlov is our mainstay at PK. He didn't play it at all.
Then Kempny and DJoos aren't PK masters either and I doubt they can do much to improve.

PK Maestro Beagle left the team. Some other key forwards had injuries.

What's left? Vrana, Kuzy, Bura, Connolly, Jaskin - almost half of forwards without real PK pedigree.
That bottom-6 F logjam should be cleared a bit. Enough of risk for NB and EK. Get the designated player.

Siege is big and mobile, he can be a good PK guy one day. Could be tested further.

 

[maacoshark]

Our pk is struggling but I think its more about structure than individual players. Right now our pk is struggling no matter who is on the ice.

 

[txpd]

In the games where they took a lot of penalties, like Games 2,3,4 vs TB, they lost. So they won despite their PK, not because of it. .

I think taking a lot of penalties against Tampa Bay is a recipe for disaster. Quality pk unit or not. If I had the best PK in the league, throwing the Caps on the pp over and over again is going to get you killed.

Remind me. Which finals game was it that the Caps killed a long 5 on 3? Werent they protecting a 1 goal lead at the time? Maybe I remember that wrong but I am pretty sure there was a 5 on 3 where Orpik played almost the entire thing