Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2021 Training Camp Edition

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[Langway]

I'm probably 75/25 in favor of bringing Chara back. They wouldn't need him so much if they hadn't moved Dillon. His PK/team toughness/leadership is valuable, particularly as a developmental aid for Fehervary. The main drawback is that he likely doesn't help them in the playoffs so it's a short-sighted stopgap. Just making the playoffs remains a chief goal and he should still be able to help in some key areas. The main question is whether Fehervary is ready for a second pair role, particularly alongside a player like Carlson or Schultz. The D mix will continue to be fairly questionable no matter what most likely and it's fair to wonder about their overall vision as well.

There's some wisdom in going young or rewarding whoever claims spots in camp but I'm not sure they're ready to open it up like that. They're still under pressure to maintain relevance and I've got to believe MacLellan will want Chara in the lineup on opening night.

 

[tenken00]

There's only a few weeks left before training camp (Sept 22). You think there is going to be a trade in the works before then? If we do sign Chara, we'll have Chara, Carlson, Orlov, Schultz, Jensen, Fehervary, TVR, Kempny.

 

[txpd]

@Langway I think we are pretty close on Fehervary. I am saying mostly what you said. I'd love to think he has the offensive upside of the Caps version of Niskanen but I am not expecting that. They need a lead defense first defenseman and if he can be that, I would be happy. Offense beyond being to skate the puck out of his own zone like Jensen does would be a bonus.

Agree on Chara except that I am not sure Chara is less effective than was cup season Orpik. As long as Oprik was doing Orpik things, he was invaluable.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Fever is a way better skater than Alzner was IMO.

 

[txpd]

There's only a few weeks left before training camp (Sept 22). You think there is going to be a trade in the works before then? If we do sign Chara, we'll have Chara, Carlson, Orlov, Schultz, Jensen, Fehervary, TVR, Kempny.

I am still pretty confident that Kempny won't be on the opening night roster. There's your roster slot. Chara is a much better fit for the Caps skill needs than Kempny is on top of the fact that we can't even be sure that Kempny is capable of passing his physical. I also have to think Schultz or Jensen have a ticket out because if they dont they extended TvR and protected him so he could eat nachos every night.

 

[txpd]

Fever is a way better skater than Alzner was IMO.

I was not comparing the two except in relation to their era. Alzner was a way better skater than say, Oprik. At the time defense first defensemen were in that big, battleship, Hal Gill catagory. Alzner was swift and mobile for his size.

Now, defense first defenseman are becoming more like Jensen. Full on fast with good defensive play and lesser scoring skills. Alzner would be a pylon in the Jensen world but made Pronger and Chara and Girardi look like pylons at the time.

 

[tenken00]

I am still pretty confident that Kempny won't be on the opening night roster. There's your roster slot. Chara is a much better fit for the Caps skill needs than Kempny is on top of the fact that we can't even before sure that Kempny is capable of passing his physical. I also have to think Schultz or Jensen have a ticket out because if they dont they extended TvR and protected him so he could eat nachos every night.

What do you think it will cost to move him? I can't imagine anyone giving something up for him at this point. And he makes too much money to bury in the AHL and have that dead cap on us.

 

[txpd]

What do you think it will cost to move him? I can't imagine anyone giving something up for him at this point. And he makes too much money to bury in the AHL and have that dead cap on us.

I havent a clue what happens there because his situation is impossible to know. He could be fully functional where you are trading a 3rd pair dman with a cup ring to a team that wants that experience all the way down to LTIRing him and everything in between.

As a 3rd pair every day defenseman his salary isnt out of line for his usage. If he is fully functional, I would be fine keeping him but he doesnt have any of the skills the Caps need from that roster slot and I would much rather Fehervary have the other roster slot. Further if the Caps are going to use a rookie on the penalty kill I would rather they have a solid left defense pk player which neither Kempny nor Orlov are. You essentially have no experienced left defense penalty killers to choose from.

 

[Roshi]

Im 100% in to bring Chara back. But not sure i want to offload from LD to do so. Im still prioritising a Schultz-move.

trade Kempny
TvR-Carlson
Orlov-Schultz
Chara-Jensen
Fehervary

trade Schultz
Kempny-Carlson
Orlov-TvR
Chara-Jensen
Fehervary

well, not sure. Anyways Fever is looking at playing a lot of games from that position.

wouldnt be overly suprised if they just find some cap loophole to bring Chara back without trading anyone either. They like to have depth on defence.

 

[txpd]

Im 100% in to bring Chara back. But not sure i want to offload from LD to do so. Im still prioritising a Schultz-move.

trade Kempny
TvR-Carlson
Orlov-Schultz
Chara-Jensen
Fehervary

trade Schultz
Kempny-Carlson
Orlov-TvR
Chara-Jensen
Fehervary

well, not sure. Anyways Fever is looking at playing a lot of games from that position.

wouldnt be overly suprised if they just find some cap loophole to bring Chara back without trading anyone either. They like to have depth on defence.

Not to nit pik but Fehervary is going to play. Whether second pair or third pair, he is going to play. They are certainly not going to move a right defense to left so that they can scratch the kid.

The reason to move a left defense is because they want to use Alexeyev as the spare left d in Hershey for call up when a left d game is available. Right?

Facts are they probably want to move a right d so that TvR isnt scratched. I could be way wrong but I think they want to move Kempny to make a space for Chara and Schultz or Jensen to make a spot for TvR.

Fehervary is going to play every game unless he earns a healthy scratch. Otherwise he is an every game player.

 

[895]

My two goals for the next 5 years:

895

2nd cup.

Bringing Chara back doesn't help with 895.

Does it help with the second cup? In my opinion, not really. Sure he's better than Fehervary now but I don't see us as cup contenders anyway. Long term might be better to let Fehervary have the development time.

So it's a no to Chara for me.

 

[txpd]

My two goals for the next 5 years:

895

2nd cup.

Bringing Chara back doesn't help with 895.

Does it help with the second cup? In my opinion, not really. Sure he's better than Fehervary now but I don't see us as cup contenders anyway. Long term might be better to let Fehervary have the development time.

So it's a no to Chara for me.

Except Chara doesnt effect Fehervary's playing time. Chara staying in his spot means there's no room for Kempny. Entirely different situation. Fehervary is going to pk regardless because Orlov doesnt. Fehervary gets Dillon's spot. Not Chara's. The Caps had a top 5 pk with Chara leading in TOI. Thats something Fehervary can learn from.

Now, if you are assuming they are losing anyway and losing more doesnt matter, then they can stick anyone in that lead pk spot and just give up more goals. It wont matter. But then if you are doing that shouldn't you just sell the team off and do it right?

Also, 895 isn't going to happen if the Caps suck. We never talk about that. Either they are good or he can't get there.

 

[Roshi]

Not to nit pik but Fehervary is going to play. Whether second pair or third pair, he is going to play. They are certainly not going to move a right defense to left so that they can scratch the kid.

The reason to move a left defense is because they want to use Alexeyev as the spare left d in Hershey for call up when a left d game is available. Right?

Facts are they probably want to move a right d so that TvR isnt scratched. I could be way wrong but I think they want to move Kempny to make a space for Chara and Schultz or Jensen to make a spot for TvR.

Fehervary is going to play every game unless he earns a healthy scratch. Otherwise he is an every game player.

i certainly hope so, but lets let the kid earn the spot first.

The thing im a bit buzzled and why i also like trading Schultz before Kempny, especially if we would bring Chara back, who would Fever be playing with. Carlson, Schultz? Those guys arent really ideal to ”protect” the rookie. Jensen would be locked with Z. TvR might make sense but then you are back at scratching Schultz.

 

[Langway]

Also, 895 isn't going to happen if the Caps suck. We never talk about that. Either they are good or he can't get there.

I don't know about that. There's plenty of opportunity for garbage time goals if they're bleeding out defensively. There were ample examples of that earlier on in his career. Not that it was easier per se. He was a force regardless and the new rules made it a transitional era anyway. But playing in more wide open games could at least in theory make it easier to reach 895. I don't think that's their plan but they have certainly shifted away from the Trotz/Niskanen/Orpik movement toward something a lot more risky and less stout. Part of it's the play of Carlson and never replacing Niskanen but Laviolette also prefers calculated risk over sitting back. I doubt Laviolette is around for another five seasons but between limited cap space, aging forwards, inexperienced defense and goaltending they're running the risk of becoming a team that's either high event both ways or more likely high event against. That dynamic could lead to being on the losing end and a lot of late extra attacker or generally garbage time goals for him. I don't think there's a real correlation between the two. Game management alone could provide them with late PP opportunities to get his.

I think the big question is whether they'd really be comfortable immediately placing Fehervary in a second-pair role, particularly alongside a player like Schultz. I don't know the answer to that other than that Kempny or Chara very likely aren't the answer either. But I do wonder under a new coach whether they might actually give Kempny a chance given his experience.

 

[twabby]

Also, 895 isn't going to happen if the Caps suck. We never talk about that. Either they are good or he can't get there.

Fully agree with this post. I guess he could scoop up garbage time goals and I guess he could play 25 minutes a night trying to score at every opportunity but the easiest route to 895 is still with a good team around him, and especially an elite player centering him. That way he could get those garbage time goals but also score meaningful goals more frequently. He’s not the dominant playdriving force he used to be and needs more help getting set up for goals, rather than creating goals individually like he did throughout his 20s.

Selling the farm for an elite 1C makes more sense now than ever. Helps them be competitive and helps Ovie get to 895. Win/win for the fans.

 

[um]

Do we know if the Caps have given up on Kempny? If they were trying to trade Kempny or LTIR him wouldn’t we have heard about it?

 

[txpd]

i certainly hope so, but lets let the kid earn the spot first.

The thing im a bit buzzled and why i also like trading Schultz before Kempny, especially if we would bring Chara back, who would Fever be playing with. Carlson, Schultz? Those guys arent really ideal to ”protect” the rookie. Jensen would be locked with Z. TvR might make sense but then you are back at scratching Schultz.

With the salary cap what it is, the Caps aren't going to waste cap space on a veteran player to eat nachos when the kids wins the spot. Fehervary has won the spot with his developmental play to date. A roster spot is opened for him. He can lose that spot and be replaced by a trade deadline acquisition, but the Caps wouldnt want to scratch $2.5m in salary cap(Kempny) because Fehervary is good.

If Chara returns.....

Orlov Carlson(v the opposing top lines)
Chara Jensen(3rd pair mins but defensive zone starts)
Fehervary Schultz(offensive zone starts)

 

[txpd]

I don't know about that. There's plenty of opportunity for garbage time goals if they're bleeding out defensively. There were ample examples of that earlier on in his career. Not that it was easier per se. He was a force regardless and the new rules made it a transitional era anyway. But playing in more wide open games could at least in theory make it easier to reach 895. I don't think that's their plan but they have certainly shifted away from the Trotz/Niskanen/Orpik movement toward something a lot more risky and less stout. Part of it's the play of Carlson and never replacing Niskanen but Laviolette also prefers calculated risk over sitting back. I doubt Laviolette is around for another five seasons but between limited cap space, aging forwards, inexperienced defense and goaltending they're running the risk of becoming a team that's either high event both ways or more likely high event against. That dynamic could lead to being on the losing end and a lot of late extra attacker or generally garbage time goals for him. I don't think there's a real correlation between the two. Game management alone could provide them with late PP opportunities to get his.

I think the big question is whether they'd really be comfortable immediately placing Fehervary in a second-pair role, particularly alongside a player like Schultz. I don't know the answer to that other than that Kempny or Chara very likely aren't the answer either. But I do wonder under a new coach whether they might actually give Kempny a chance given his experience.

I guess we can disagree. I just see a team that has dropped from top 5 to bottom 10 in pp% and a team that struggles to score 5 on 5 and a team behind with teams locking down the defense as a poor package to score a lot of goals.

 

[Langway]

I guess we can disagree. I just see a team that has dropped from top 5 to bottom 10 in pp% and a team that struggles to score 5 on 5 and a team behind with teams locking down the defense as a poor package to score a lot of goals.

He still led the league in goals when they missed the playoffs and were a mess under Oates. Typically when they've struggled as a team it hasn't negatively impacted his productivity, confidence or pride. Time could alter that and a mess of a team could lead to his own struggles but not necessarily. Them being a strong possession team and powerhouse would be ideal but he's tended to get his rain or shine. Also I don't know that teams having the lead means the game will get locked down. Often it's just the opposite as teams sit back. More lax game situations in his favor could offset any larger team loss of confidence or something. If that were to happen over the next season or two it could also lead to a relatively high pick that could end up helping him more crucially a year or two later when he may need it.

It seems doubtful that they'll be a real powerhouse at any point in the short-term. They're more likely a middle of the pack team, maybe a bit better or maybe a bit worse if they get hit with injuries or developmental setbacks. If it's more on the losing end I tend to doubt it radically alters his pursuit. His pursuit will be his pursuit regardless and barring him losing the ability to assert himself as easily I don't think team dynamics changes much. If anything he may take it on himself more to continue to lead the way. The danger is mostly whenever he can no longer really do much on his own individually but I don't think he's there yet for a while unless there's a serious injury. He's realistically not going to have an elite center either way and while he's a lot less dynamic individually than he was I tend to think his leadership and will aren't going to waiver much regardless of the team's direction. He's always been super prideful and as long as he still can muster it I tend to think that will be there.

Ideally, yes, having an amazing team around him in his golden years would make his pursuit easier. Tons of pace around him would open up more room for him to do his thing and play with confidence. But, again, he's tended to play with confidence no matter what. It's how he's gotten to this point and as long as he can do it physically I don't think there's external circumstances that will hamper him unless it's a complete mess. Durability IMO is potentially a far greater factor.

 

[txpd]

He still led the league in goals when they missed the playoffs and were a mess under Oates. Typically when they've struggled as a team it hasn't negatively impacted his productivity, confidence or pride. Time could alter that and a mess of a team could lead to his own struggles but not necessarily. Them being a strong possession team and powerhouse would be ideal but he's tended to get his rain or shine. Also I don't know that teams having the lead means the game will get locked down. Often it's just the opposite as teams sit back. More lax game situations in his favor could offset any larger team loss of confidence or something. If that were to happen over the next season or two it could also lead to a relatively high pick that could end up helping him more crucially a year or two later when he may need it.

It seems doubtful that they'll be a real powerhouse at any point in the short-term. They're more likely a middle of the pack team, maybe a bit better or maybe a bit worse if they get hit with injuries or developmental setbacks. If it's more on the losing end I tend to doubt it radically alters his pursuit. His pursuit will be his pursuit regardless and barring him losing the ability to assert himself as easily I don't think team dynamics changes much. If anything he may take it on himself more to continue to lead the way. The danger is mostly whenever he can no longer really do much on his own individually but I don't think he's there yet for a while unless there's a serious injury. He's realistically not going to have an elite center either way and while he's a lot less dynamic individually than he was I tend to think his leadership and will aren't going to waiver much regardless of the team's direction. He's always been super prideful and as long as he still can muster it I tend to think that will be there.

The year the Caps missed the playoffs under Oates, they had the #2 pp in the league. They didn't suck. They were an underperforming cup contender. I am talking about an actual bad team. He team without Mike Green and John Carlson. Ov can score 40 on a bubble team. He cant on a crappy team.

 

[Langway]

The year the Caps missed the playoffs under Oates, they had the #2 pp in the league. They didn't suck. They were an underperforming cup contender. I am talking about an actual bad team. He team without Mike Green and John Carlson. Ov can score 40 on a bubble team. He cant on a crappy team.

They did fundamentally suck 5-on-5 that year. The PP was strong but so was last year's so I'm not sure where the PP concern stems from. They can still have a good/strong PP on an otherwise poor team. Their current construction is likely that of a high event team that gives up more quality chances. If they're toward the losing end of things I don't think it negatively impacts his pursuit much unless they're a real mess. I don't think Laviolette lets that happen without a fight. Some sort of outlier Buffalo style ineptitude is remote and would come with eventual (if not fairly immediate) roster alterations. They're not going to suddenly just turn into a shit show of continual idiocy, right? As long as he gets around 35 a year for five years he'll break the mark and they'll make changes to keep that on track as needed. Realistically that can still happen in a fairly crappy team or two provided his game doesn't dramatically fall off.

Of course it's better if they're winning because winning is fun but, again, he's tended to get his regardless. That won't last forever but I don't necessarily agree they must remain a playoff team or not overall sort of suck for him to hit the mark. There are a lot of ways a team can be mediocre or worse and realistically they're set up for defense and pace to be the main issues. If that's the case then higher event games could wind up with him being just as productive, at least from a goal standpoint. They can be at least decent offensively still yet be a relatively bad team. If anything that's the most likely scenario where they fade ala Chicago.

 

[Rayquaza64]

i certainly hope so, but lets let the kid earn the spot first.

The thing im a bit buzzled and why i also like trading Schultz before Kempny, especially if we would bring Chara back, who would Fever be playing with. Carlson, Schultz? Those guys arent really ideal to ”protect” the rookie. Jensen would be locked with Z. TvR might make sense but then you are back at scratching Schultz.

whats wrong with scratching schultz? if he's pushed out of the lineup then scratch him or trade him

 

[Roshi]

whats wrong with scratching schultz? if he's pushed out of the lineup then scratch him or trade him

Well yeah, thats what im saying. Rather trade him than scratch 4 millions of cap space.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Caps under Oates were still talented, just dysfunctional.

Bad teams don’t have a lot of talent…..Caps won’t strip the team of talent around him.

They will continue to score goals and not be a bad team IMO.