Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2021-22 Regular Season Part 4

[Calicaps]

Happy New Year!

Part 3

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[hockeykicker]

 

[txpd]

I’m sold on the fact that the Caps are really good but they’re older and have broken down and run out of steam the last few years. They also have a few really important players either hurt or coming back from injury and it’s unclear how effective they’ll be this season. Banking on Mantha, Backstrom, or Oshie to be the best version of themselves this year is a risky proposition.

If they have a bunch of good young players coming up I don’t see how trading one of them and a first means they’re selling off years of the future. And if they can acquire and extend a guy like Hertl I think that actually keeps their window open even longer as he is another one of those bridge players like Wilson and Mantha who aren’t rookies but aren’t on the back nine of their careers either.

I think they need a higher end forward who can play wing or center and a depth RHD defenseman and they’re set. Maybe a goaltender as well but I don’t know if they rock the boat that much.

Trading one of several assets isn't going for broke in my view. Trading Protas, AA and a 1st would be more like it. Leason or Snively and a 2nd isnt going all in. Which is why I asked the question.

The other thing is that I see 3 unrelated scenarios in their playoff failures since the cup.

Hertl. Signing him would cost Kuzy money. Or no?

 

[kicksavedave]

The only way I'd be interested in a big trade is if Backie's comeback breaks down and he goes back on IR long term again. If we're in need of a new #2 C, then I could see making a trade for a Hertl. But so long as Backs is playing and holding up, I just can't see them making any big moves. And trading for a Hertl would only even be feasible if Backs contract is off the books (via LTIR).

 

[Hivemind]

Hertl can play wing as well as center. So the pro-Giroux crowd should also like Hertl as an option.

 

[txpd]

I get the feeling that people have no confidence in Backstrom. I think that's interesting. For me the uptick in the quality of the puck movement is easily noticeable. 3pts in 3 games. Yes? But, I get that feeling. Its almost like people have moved on.

 

[twabby]

I get the feeling that people have no confidence in Backstrom. I think that's interesting. For me the uptick in the quality of the puck movement is easily noticeable. 3pts in 3 games. Yes? But, I get that feeling. Its almost like people have moved on.

Backstrom’s hip still concerns me, but it’s less Backstrom and more I don’t have confidence that the team will be able to generate consistent offense in the postseason since they have failed to do so in the prior 3 postseasons. Is a third line winger really going to move the needle in that regard?

I think the fact that COVID is still a concern leads me to want to get another star forward. Suppose Evgeny Kuznetsov goes down with his 18th case of COVID and he’s out for at least 5 days. I’d prefer to have someone like Hertl or Giroux maybe step up instead of like Lars Eller or TJ Oshie suddenly being thrust into top 6 center duty.

 

[ClevelandCapsfan]

Hertl can play wing as well as center. So the pro-Giroux crowd should also like Hertl as an option.

 

[kicksavedave]

I get the feeling that people have no confidence in Backstrom. I think that's interesting. For me the uptick in the quality of the puck movement is easily noticeable. 3pts in 3 games. Yes? But, I get that feeling. Its almost like people have moved on.

Yeah its entirely about health for Backstrom... is he's 100% then he's a top C and huge contributor... but if he's not healthy, if he reinjures the hip, he's nearly useless on the ice. I hope he retires a Cap when his contract is over (in several years) but if he's hurt then that can't happen.

 

[txpd]

Yeah its entirely about health for Backstrom... is he's 100% then he's a top C and huge contributor... but if he's not healthy, if he reinjures the hip, he's nearly useless on the ice. I hope he retires a Cap when his contract is over (in several years) but if he's hurt then that can't happen.

If he is hurt and can't play, wouldnt he not play? The rest of what you said is common sense. My post was about what the opinions are on Backstrom and I am seeing very little confidence. You didn't address that

 

[caps4cup]

Backstrom was the Caps best player last year and the early (and extremely limited) results have looked promising. I don’t think they would’ve brought him back if he wasn’t 100% ready with how well Kuzy and the team were playing. IMO, if they add a big gun, it’s an addition to 19 or a replacement for Mantha if he isn’t ready.

 

[um]

I want another forward because Sheary, Sprong, and McMichael aren’t strong 2nd liners.

I think this is about replacing Mantha, not Backstrom.

 

[kicksavedave]

If he is hurt and can't play, wouldnt he not play? The rest of what you said is common sense. My post was about what the opinions are on Backstrom and I am seeing very little confidence. You didn't address that

I have utmost confidence in him if he's fully healthy, and he seems to be right now but its only been three games. But no one here can predict his future health and if he's not healthy, it's not assured that the Caps will shut him down. They didn't shut him down last year or last playoffs and he hurt the team by not contributing at his usual self or even at his salary.

So I did address my confidence in him if he is healthy and I will not make a prediction about his future.

 

[kicksavedave]

Backstrom was the Caps best player last year and the early (and extremely limited) results have looked promising. I don’t think they would’ve brought him back if he wasn’t 100% ready with how well Kuzy and the team were playing. IMO, if they add a big gun, it’s an addition to 19 or a replacement for Mantha if he isn’t ready.

He was the best player early but once he re-injured his hip his play dropped off considerably, especially in the playoffs.

 

[trick9]

Not worried about Backstrom yet. He looks good. He needs to be healthy come Playoff time though.

Kempny looking good after his injuries is good news. I still don't see them changing the original top-6 that's been great but additional depth is always good because injuries happen and having guy like that means we likely don't need to move picks to acquire one.

I feel like if they are to acquire someone it's likely to replace Sprong and get someone more reliable. Or maybe McMichael. Getting Mantha back would be great.

 

[txpd]

Ovechkin kuzy Wilson
Sheary Backstrom Oshie
McMichael Eller Protas
Hagelin Dowd Hathaway

I guess the question is down the stretch, what do you want to do with the 2 rookies? My view is that if they dont get Mantha back, they will bring in a winger that will either push Sheary down and McMichael out or just take McMichael's spot directly. If they just repeated the Raffl move(Raffl like. Not Raffl himself) and stuck him with Eller and Protas, that would probably be enough. A legit 2nd line winger putting Sheary with Eller and Protas could happen. I would think there is an outside chance they trade for 2 wingers so they dont need to use either of the kids unless there is an injury.

 

[caps4cup]

Ovechkin kuzy Wilson
Sheary Backstrom Oshie
McMichael Eller Protas
Hagelin Dowd Hathaway

I guess the question is down the stretch, what do you want to do with the 2 rookies? My view is that if they dont get Mantha back, they will bring in a winger that will either push Sheary down and McMichael out or just take McMichael's spot directly. If they just repeated the Raffl move(Raffl like. Not Raffl himself) and stuck him with Eller and Protas, that would probably be enough. A legit 2nd line winger putting Sheary with Eller and Protas could happen. I would think there is an outside chance they trade for 2 wingers so they dont need to use either of the kids unless there is an injury.

I would make the middle 6:

CMM-Backstrom-Oshie
Sheary-Eller-Sprong

Sprong deserves to play at this point. His underlyings are great he just surprisingly hasn’t been able to finish. Sheary and Eller have played their best hockey the past 2 years together, keep them together.

Put CMM with 19 and 77 to shelter him and I think he’s also a guy who has created a lot of chances but just hasn’t been able to finish. I could see him really flourishing with those 2 and I like putting his speed with 19 and 77 as well.

For defensive purposes, either slide 77 down to Eller’s line, or move 73 up to 19’s line.

Again, that’s what I would do. Not sure that’s what Lavi will do though. We will see shortly.

 

[txpd]

I would make the middle 6:

CMM-Backstrom-Oshie
Sheary-Eller-Sprong

Sprong deserves to play at this point. His underlyings are great he just surprisingly hasn’t been able to finish. Sheary and Eller have played their best hockey the past 2 years together, keep them together.

Put CMM with 19 and 77 to shelter him and I think he’s also a guy who has created a lot of chances but just hasn’t been able to finish. I could see him really flourishing with those 2 and I like putting his speed with 19 and 77 as well.

For defensive purposes, either slide 77 down to Eller’s line, or move 73 up to 19’s line.

Again, that’s what I would do. Not sure that’s what Lavi will do though. We will see shortly.

Sprong's problems go way past finishing. I see no chance that Laviolette chooses to put a rookie with Backstrom come playoffs.

 

[caps4cup]

Sprong's problems go way past finishing. I see no chance that Laviolette chooses to put a rookie with Backstrom come playoffs.

I’m assuming that Mantha will be ready for the playoffs in that scenario. Otherwise they need another top 6 guy IMO.

Sprong has one of the best GF%, GA/60%, and xG% marks on the team. He has been driving play.

I don’t think he’s perfect, but he’s very similar to Connolly on the Cup team. RW on the 3rd line but likely the 10th or 11th forward on the depth chart (Stephenson was on the 4th line but promoted ahead of Connolly in the playoffs and Beagle was ahead of him on the depth chart too). Guys with his skill level (and usual finishing ability) are important to have. And I think he’s played really well in the past with 2 strong play drivers in Eller and Sheary.

 

[Futures Passed]

Trading one of several assets isn't going for broke in my view. Trading Protas, AA and a 1st would be more like it. Leason or Snively and a 2nd isnt going all in. Which is why I asked the question.

The other thing is that I see 3 unrelated scenarios in their playoff failures since the cup.

Hertl. Signing him would cost Kuzy money. Or no?

I used the phrase “going all in” loosely and likely inaccurately. I think in years past the Caps would not trade a 1st + for deadline trades unless they were additions to the core per se. I more so was saying that I would be willing to go there in trade value this season, but I also have no idea what the actual deadline value of players like Fleury and Giordano would be. I would be fine swapping picks plus Vanacek for Fleury for instance. I also don’t take it as a given that Fleury couldn’t be resigned at a discount at this point in his career. I think Sammy could use some time in a lower pressure role with Fleury as mentor. Even if it’s just a rental though, I’ll take the Cup. We only have one and I don’t want to wait another forty years. I like Sammy’s growth but I still see Fleury as elite and Sammy as just an average starter at this point in time; plus he lacks playoff experience.

I like our team but I don’t have any idea how Backstrom’s hip holds up. I’m hoping he has at minimum one last playoff run in him, so I feel like the pressure is on to take advantage of this window. This is true of all the old timers to one degree or another. They all still have game, but betting on their health seems riskier in the years to come. I also just feel really good about this team’s chances to win right now.

 

[HecticGlow]

The big Q for me is what we might expect from Mantha if/when he returns. The guy just hasn’t played enough games with the Caps - of a winning team, for that matter - to be ready to be relied upon in the playoffs as a major offensive guy. Add to that him coming back from injury… it’s not ideal.

We need strong and consistent scoring from at least one of our middle-six lines in the postseason, and it does feel like we’re missing a trusted goalscorer in that group right now.

 

[txpd]

Sprong has one of the best GF%, GA/60%, and xG% marks on the team. He has been driving play..

This shows the limitations of the analytics. Laviolette sees him completely differently

 

[caps4cup]

This shows the limitations of the analytics. Laviolette sees him completely differently

And if his shooting percentage was normal he would have 8 goals, only behind the top line, which would probably have him seen in a different light as well. He’s still getting a minute more per game at even strength than last year, so even with the injuries, it doesn’t seem like Lavi’s trust level in him has necessarily decreased.

It will be interesting to see the top 9 setup once everyone is back (besides Mantha). There’s a lot of possible combinations they could run with in the middle 6.

 

[txpd]

The big Q for me is what we might expect from Mantha if/when he returns. The guy just hasn’t played enough games with the Caps - of a winning team, for that matter - to be ready to be relied upon in the playoffs as a major offensive guy. Add to that him coming back from injury… it’s not ideal.

We need strong and consistent scoring from at least one of our middle-six lines in the postseason, and it does feel like we’re missing a trusted goalscorer in that group right now.

I dont trust anyone after a serious shoulder surgery

 

[txpd]

And if his shooting percentage was normal he would have 8 goals, only behind the top line, which would probably have him seen in a different light as well. He’s still getting a minute more per game at even strength than last year, so even with the injuries, it doesn’t seem like Lavi’s trust level in him has necessarily decreased.

It will be interesting to see the top 9 setup once everyone is back (besides Mantha). There’s a lot of possible combinations they could run with in the middle 6.

Ice time is an average and you aren't acknowledging the trends. His toi dropped and then he was scratched. He was scratched and then Laviolette said, "We know he can shoot. What we need is a 200ft game." He would much rather give Protas ice time than Sprong.