Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2019 Offseason Pt. 4: Nobody Panik!

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Chill with the personal stuff.

 

[Silky mitts]

2018/19 regular season:

Player	5v5	TOI	GF/60	GA/60
Tom Wilson	with Evgeny Kuznetsov	488:13	3.81	2.33
Tom Wilson	with Nicklas Backstrom	257:13	2.33	3.5
Alex Ovechkin	with Evgeny Kuznetsov	578:28	3.73	2.9
Alex Ovechkin	with Nicklas Backstrom	535:34	3.47	2.8
T.J. Oshie	with Evgeny Kuznetsov	150:13	2.4	0.8
T.J. Oshie	with Nicklas Backstrom	728:19	3.13	2.14
Jakub Vrana	with Evgeny Kuznetsov	385:30	3.89	2.02
Jakub Vrana	with Nicklas Backstrom	398:51	3.16	1.96

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Conclusion: if you think Nicklas Backstrom had a better last season than Evgeny Kuznetsov (defensively, offensively or both), consider to contact your doctor. Glasses may solve your problem, if it is not hateful hysteria.

I don’t know about all that but the way Kuzy drives offense according to eyeballs and stats I don’t see where he has to be moved if he has the same year again. The big drop off was the zone entries last year, if he was doing that in the postseason like the year before it limits the time in zones where he’s not helping a ton.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I don’t know about all that but the way Kuzy drives offense according to eyeballs and stats I don’t see where he has to be moved if he has the same year again. The big drop off was the zone entries last year, if he was doing that in the postseason like the year before it limits the time in zones where he’s not helping a ton.

“Has to be moved”.....nah doesn’t have to be. However I’d entertain the idea if he gives us a second straight year of “kinda trying”....other factors matter of course. Stats aside, that malaise from a superstar talent can damage the room, impact the youth developing and watching these guys for guidance, emulating them, etc....have to trust GMBM on that one.

I’m hoping his teammates gave him an earful at some point and we see a better Pro this season. Pretty sure we all want him to succeed.

 

[txpd]

Kuzy is not a forechecker. He is not a puck retriever. He is not a hitter. He's not a gunner. Kuzy is a puck carrier who dumps pucks in so Wilson and Oshie can get in and hit and forecheck. I am pretty sure playing him using him like Vrana or Connolly or Ovechkin isn't the best use of his skills. If he doesn't want to play defense, you have to plan for it and take the bad with the good.

 

[HandsomeTom43]

If Kuzy does in fact end up causing problems to the true detriment of the team, he will be moved. I think we all know GMBM won't put up with any player's bullshit on the team. We could get a good haul for Kuzy but let's just see how it plays out.

 

[895]

Kuznetsov would easily get 11m a year as a UFA right now, with all his warts. He's on 7.8m. That's really good value.


Kuznetsov will not be moved.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Good teams don’t let $ be the only deciding factor.

92 needs to drop a 90+ point season and try hard in his own end and I think we’ll all be happy.

FWIW the way his deal is structured in real $, after this season, or after the 21-22 season would be the most attractive years for a potential acquiring team. Less real $ than cap hit those years.....few million might not be that big of a deal unless you’re going to Ottawa lol....

 

[895]

Good teams don’t let $ be the only deciding factor.

92 needs to drop a 90+ point season and try hard in his own end and I think we’ll all be happy.

FWIW the way his deal is structured in real $, after this season, or after the 21-22 season would be the most attractive years for a potential acquiring team. Less real $ than cap hit those years.....few million might not be that big of a deal unless you’re going to Ottawa lol....

Why does he need to do that?

He can score 70 points and still be a good value contract. Ryan Johansen is a 60 point centre getting paid 8m a year.

I don't understand why Kuznetsov has these lofty expectations that he has to meet or else he sucks.

Ovechkin last broke 90 points 10 years ago.

 

[Sam Spade]

All I know is "no Kuzy, no Cup". I'm good.

 

[SherVaughn30]

All I know is "no Kuzy, no Cup". I'm good.

Scoring wasn't the problem with the Caps, it was defending. Kempny's injury loss threw a big monkey wrench in the Caps D-group pairings. Holtby was not playoff Holtby. That Game 7 goaltending from Holtby was very shaky. Yes the team should have played better, but when the team in front of the goalie can't prevent their opponent from scoring, then its up to the goalie as he's the last line in defending the net! It's a goalies job to do the best they can to prevent the other team from scoring goals and Holtby didn't play his best. Using Kuzy as some scapegoat is getting tiresome. Even if Kuzy was on, the Caps get a little bit more scoring, but Kuzy doesn't play as a d-man or goalie. The unevenness of the d-group and Holtby goaltending being off, would have resulted in a 2nd round exit.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Why does he need to do that?

He can score 70 points and still be a good value contract. Ryan Johansen is a 60 point centre getting paid 8m a year.

I don't understand why Kuznetsov has these lofty expectations that he has to meet or else he sucks.

Ovechkin last broke 90 points 10 years ago.

That’s a horseshit outlook from my POV sorry.

70pts a year would be a semin-like waste of a talent.

Dude should be competing for MVP every year not competing for 2C. He’s got that kind of talent.

Not sure why your expectations are Next to nothing for the player.

We saw what an MVP-level Kuzy can help bring....The Cup. 70pt Kuzy brings disappointment. I want another Cup for Ovy, not more coasting from star-level players. Doesn’t seem unreasonable to expect more professionalism and production in both ends.


And FWIW RYJo is disappointing as hell for that cap hit, but then again, I’ve never been a fan of the player anyways.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

RyJo for Seth Jones was such a bad trade for the Preds.

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

Did some research for you. I start seriously feel myself like I am on an educational mission here. Every time I say something it should be backed with lot of stats.

Quick summary in three points for you, if you are not THE hysteric hater. Otherwise go check the stats and feel free to wright some detestable comments full of insults, logic loops, bad faith and bad words as always.

Point 1. Kuznetsov played top minutes vs Carolina top line. Not Backstrom. Kuznetsov opposition was much harder.
Point 2. Off./Def. Zone starts % are pretty much the same for Backstrom and Kuznetsov. The argument that Backstrom had way more Def zone starts is a lie.
Point 3. Kuznetsov's On-Ice Sv% was 95% (Selke level). Backstrom’s On-Ice Sv% was 82% (Trash level).

Conclusion:

vs Carolina Kuznetsov produced Conn Smythe level play (ones again). And Backstrom was hart multiple times for sure to do what he did (complete choke vs Carolina).

Spoiler: Stats

Player	VS	Position	TOI With	TOI Away	CF	CA	CF% With	SF	SA	SF% With	GF	GA	On-Ice SH%	On-Ice SV%	Off. Zone Starts	Neu. Zone Starts	Def. Zone Starts	On The Fly Starts
Evgeny Kuznetsov	Andrei Svechnikov	R	4.95	33.85	2	6	25	2	3	40	0	0	0	100	0	1	1	5
Evgeny Kuznetsov	Brock McGinn	L	26.3	81.2166667	22	20	52.38	13	9	59.09	2	1	15.38	88.89	4	7	5	25
Evgeny Kuznetsov	Jordan Staal	C	27.4666667	80.05	15	30	33.33	12	13	48	1	0	8.33	100	5	10	5	21
Evgeny Kuznetsov	Justin Williams	R	31.65	75.8666667	19	30	38.78	11	14	44	1	1	9.09	92.86	2	10	6	22
Evgeny Kuznetsov	Lucas Wallmark	C	23.4166667	84.1	25	20	55.56	15	12	55.56	1	1	6.67	91.67	3	8	6	24
Evgeny Kuznetsov	Nino Niederreiter	R	46.3333333	61.1833333	26	63	29.21	15	39	27.78	1	1	6.67	97.44	7	15	10	31
Evgeny Kuznetsov	Sebastian Aho	C	45.5666667	61.95	25	58	30.12	11	33	25	1	2	9.09	93.94	5	11	10	27
Evgeny Kuznetsov	Teuvo Teravainen	L	42.7166667	64.8	35	59	37.23	20	30	40	2	1	10	96.67	7	12	8	27
Evgeny Kuznetsov	Warren Foegele	L	23.7666667	83.75	20	22	47.62	12	10	54.55	0	1	0	90	3	9	4	11
Nicklas Backstrom	Andrei Svechnikov	R	9.41666667	28.95	11	10	52.38	7	4	63.64	0	1	0	75	1	6	2	4
Nicklas Backstrom	Brock McGinn	L	32.6666667	79.0166667	32	38	45.71	17	22	43.59	2	4	11.76	81.82	3	12	9	20
Nicklas Backstrom	Jordan Staal	C	50.8166667	60.8666667	41	66	38.32	22	27	44.9	2	6	9.09	77.78	10	22	14	19
Nicklas Backstrom	Justin Williams	R	50.5833333	61.1	37	66	35.92	20	30	40	3	4	15	86.67	7	19	13	29
Nicklas Backstrom	Lucas Wallmark	C	13.6833333	98	22	11	66.67	11	7	61.11	1	3	9.09	57.14	3	0	2	16
Nicklas Backstrom	Nino Niederreiter	R	33.65	78.0333333	22	33	40	8	14	36.36	2	1	25	92.86	2	9	4	36
Nicklas Backstrom	Sebastian Aho	C	38.8166667	72.8666667	24	46	34.29	10	20	33.33	2	1	20	95	1	10	6	37
Nicklas Backstrom	Teuvo Teravainen	L	34	77.6833333	26	39	40	12	14	46.15	1	2	8.33	85.71	4	13	6	29
Nicklas Backstrom	Warren Foegele	L	24.7166667	86.9666667	21	33	38.89	11	17	39.29	1	3	9.09	82.35	6	5	5	16

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[txpd]

All I know is "no Kuzy, no Cup". I'm good.

That is true but it cuts both ways. He was the difference maker that created the cup they got. He was the mismatch. He was then the difference maker the next season when his indifference removed that difference maker.

I don't expect he would be moved. I have hopes that he comes to camp ready to battle and has his head screwed on straight. Don't be mistaken though. If he comes in full Alex Semin, he would both not score $11m on then open market and would officially become a distraction.

 

[shtorm2005]

We saw what an MVP-level Kuzy can help bring....The Cup. 70pt Kuzy brings disappointment.

Not sure about MVP level. I do remember him flying all over the ice. But, who gave him all that space.

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

In 2008/09, 2009/10 and 2010/11 we had a real chance to win the Cup. It was due to Ovechkin and Semin. Today we can have a good guess who was the true problem on that team and who was not (Ovechkin and Semin). Some people will die with their beloved fantasies (Semin negative factor) rather than look to the smart facts/reality. [Mod edits - English please]


Edit: Actually, I think the hate on Semin did a lot of damage to that team (Team - franchise and not team - bench of hockey players). If Ovy was not a freak of nature as he is, him too should have had a good chance to be destroyed by the irrelevant-defense-contribution-hysteria critics. Giving him "C" was smart-as-hell move.

Edit2: People who attacks Kuznetsov aggressively and for no reason, bringing with assurance the 'teammate problem' from nowhere - are NOT the Caps fans. And we are smart enoght to see it.

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

If we have b**ls we should give Kuznetsov the "A". This team can win Cups and it will be with Kuzy and not without him.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Not sure about MVP level. I do remember him flying all over the ice. But, who gave him all that space.

I feel like with his talent, he’s at least a top-10 player when he’s at his best.

 

[traparatus]

I feel like with his talent, he’s at least a top-10 player when he’s at his best.

Top-10 might even be selling him a little short. With his talent level, he should be in the MVP discussion every season.

I think Kuznetsov genuinely believes that if he 'turns it on', he is unstoppable. He is wrong about that, of course. No player in this league is unstoppable. That's why superstar players in the NHL work their asses off trying to improve every minute aspect of their game.

I hope it's all just a part of maturation process for him and he realizes just how precious this opportunity this. Stacked roster, virtually guaranteed playoff spot, best goal scorer of this generation for a linemate. Kuznetsov has never experienced a hopeless NHL season, kind of season when you are fully out of it by Nov 1st. It's possible that he lacks a bit of perspective.

 

[shtorm2005]

I feel like with his talent, he’s at least a top-10 player when he’s at his best.

Im trying to find differences between him and Semin, but can't name them. Also, top 10 talent when on his game, also lack of motivation sometimes. Only thing I see for now, Kuzy seems more emotionally attached to teammates. This could help him to not follow same fate.

 

[SherVaughn30]

Im trying to find differences between him and Semin, but can't name them. Also, top 10 talent when on his game, also lack of motivation sometimes. Only thing I see for now, Kuzy seems more emotionally attached to teammates. This could help him to not follow same fate.

Semin was never a good team player and he was frustrating to watch. Kuzy has already shown to be a good team player. He had to buy in to his teammates and the coaching staff, other wise the Caps wouldn't have won the Cup(he was a big factor, but not the only factor).

 

[shtorm2005]

Semin was never a good team player and he was frustrating to watch.

How much frustrating? Similar to Kuzy last year?

He had to buy in to his teammates and the coaching staff, other wise the Caps wouldn't have won the Cup(he was a big factor, but not the only factor).

I think coaching stuff was probably biggest reason of Caps SC. They put a great team together and they played perfect games. I doubt Kuzy would do much better in those run and gun Caps teams which Semin was part of.

 

[txpd]

Semin was never a good team player and he was frustrating to watch. Kuzy has already shown to be a good team player. He had to buy in to his teammates and the coaching staff, other wise the Caps wouldn't have won the Cup(he was a big factor, but not the only factor).

And last season when he clearly no longer bought in? I am pretty sure his effort and commitment level was quite clear to his teammates. I don't think last season he qualified as a good teammate. Do you think Brooks Orpik was enthusiastic about the way Kuzy was going about his business while Orpik was leaving all he had on the ice? No.

There are two ways this can go. The good teammate legit 1C reason the Caps won the cup can return and all is forgotten or last season's coaster can come back.

The argument defending Kuznetsov is always predicated on Kuzy caring. I suggest there is no conversation there. Last season is just a bump in the road and I suspect that most defending Kuzy are assuming he is going to bring it this season.

My suggestion is that it could go either way. If it goes the wrong way, there will be problems.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Top-10 might even be selling him a little short. With his talent level, he should be in the MVP discussion every season.

I think Kuznetsov genuinely believes that if he 'turns it on', he is unstoppable. He is wrong about that, of course. No player in this league is unstoppable. That's why superstar players in the NHL work their asses off trying to improve every minute aspect of their game.

I hope it's all just a part of maturation process for him and he realizes just how precious this opportunity this. Stacked roster, virtually guaranteed playoff spot, best goal scorer of this generation for a linemate. Kuznetsov has never experienced a hopeless NHL season, kind of season when you are fully out of it by Nov 1st. It's possible that he lacks a bit of perspective.

My initial post said top-5. Did not want to appear too homerish in my Kuzy praise. I absolutely believe he should be hovering in the MVP discussion each year if he gave a Kucherov-type effort in the regular season.

Good post.

 

[Raikkonen]

Kucherov-type effort gets you 0-4 in the first round. Its tricky.

I believe what Kuzy said about last season so I hope he will find a way to avoid such performance this next season.

But does he himself know exactly how to avoid it? Thats an interesting question I dont have an answer for