Prospect Info: Capitals Top Prospects 2023 #3

Who is the Capitals #3 Prospect? 2023

  • Ryan Hofer (C)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Cameron Allen (D)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Ludwig Persson (LW)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Lucas Johansen (D)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Mitchell Gibson (G)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Bogdan Trineyev (LW/RW)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Hardy Häman Aktell (D)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Clay Stevenson (G)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Brent Johnson (D)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Pierrick Dube (RW)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Henry Rybinski (RW)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Matthew Phillips (C)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Riley Sutter (RW)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Chase Clark (G)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Antoine Keller (G)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Brett Hyland (LW)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Patrick Thomas (C)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Joaqim Lemay (D)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Jake Karabela (C)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Ethen Frank (C)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Garin Bjorklund (G)

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    44
  • Poll closed .

BackToTheBasics

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Dec 26, 2013
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HFCapitals Top Prospects 2023 Poll

Name
Position
Shoots
Height/Weight
Draft
Age
Country
1​
Ryan Leonard (30/54 votes - 55.6%)​
RW​
Right​
6'0" 192 lbs​
2023 8th overall​
18​
United States​
2​
Ivan Miroshnichenko (41/46 votes - 89.1%)​
LW​
Right​
6'1" 185 lbs​
2022 20th overall​
19​
Russia​
 

ArmadilloThumb

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Apr 20, 2018
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Went Lapierre.

I am very excited about Cristall's offensive *potential*, but will resist Shiny New Object syndrome and wait to see him start to address the skating and maturity questions, and start to show that his elite skills can translate at the pro level. I very much hope they do.

We tend to forget Lapierre had major disruptions in his development timeline (injury and COVID disruption) but has shown progress in his first year in pro (even if it wasn't a straight line up). Made a significant contribution in the Calder finals, so I am very hopeful that is a signal his trajectory is now going to be up. We should remember how good his was during his first short stint on the Caps. Love Oshie's reaction to Lappy's first goal!!
 
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twabby

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HTFN

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I panicked on this one. Suzdalev has really impressed me, but I also like the Cristall pick. Ultimately that was a razor thin choice for me with Cristall having a higher upside but less manageable frame. I probably should have picked for ceiling instead of floor but I overthought it.

That said.... I was also really tempted to go for Iorio or Chesley because both seem like guaranteed pros in ways that the other two may never be.

In short, I botched this one because I'll probably go D at 4 and then my voting won't even reflect the neck and neck 3 pick... Would have been better to just go Cristall, D pick, and then balance what remains. Glad other people are fixing that for me.
 
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usiel

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I panicked on this one. Suzdalev has really impressed me, but I also like the Cristall pick. Ultimately that was a razor thin choice for me with Cristall having a higher upside but less manageable frame. I probably should have picked for ceiling instead of floor but I overthought it.

That said.... I was also really tempted to go for Iorio or Chesley because both seem like guaranteed pros in ways that the other two may never be.

In short, I botched this one because I'll probably go D at 4 and then my voting won't even reflect the neck and neck 3 pick... Would have been better to just go Cristall, D pick, and then balance what remains. Glad other people are fixing that for me.
I am high on Cristall but its a bit boom or bust for. Being a NHL draftnik since 1990 or so have seen many highly skilled small players with suspect speed not make it.
 
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RedRocking

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I am high on Cristall but its a bit boom or bust for. Being a NHL draftnik since 1990 or so have seen many highly skilled small players with suspect speed not make it.
Agreed, I took Suzy as well. He kinda reminds me of Burky around that age. Still room to grow his game and body.
 
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HTFN

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Well, we might as well start this now, because I was pretty torn between Chesley and Iorio and I thought it'd be a bigger deal at 4.

I liked Iorio and watched as much of the Calder Cup as I could, he looked good in his NHL reps, but Chesley keeps getting glowing praise and seems like a Ryan McDonagh type of pull. Are we high on him because he's closer, and we've seen it already, or is there reason to believe Iorio has a higher ceiling (or ceiling to floor ratio) than Chesley?

I do have them neck and neck, so this is mostly just checking myself given that the last few posters have all gone Iorio. Want to know if I'm missing something or if it's just timelines.
 

Ovechkins Wodka

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This one is hard before rookie camp. I think im taking Lappy

Hes already made the Caps main team as a rookie, He played pretty well in the Hershey run. We traded up in the draft to get him. People might not remember him.
 
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Langway

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I didn't think Iorio was altogether brilliant in the Calder Cup run. There were times when he was their weakest blueliner. They were all playing pretty well but he does find himself in hot water now and then from a decision-making standpoint. That's somewhat to be expected for an AHL rookie in that environment but, still, I didn't see a no doubt future top 4 stud per se. He's got a lot to work with in terms of size, straight on speed and decent skill. He could in theory play on a third pair next season. But his lateral mobility can be iffy defending transition attacks. He doesn't always play to his size and doesn't have PP upside absent further development.

That said, he does have the highest floor at this point. His frame puts him ahead of Chesley IMO for now. Had Chesley displayed a more regular high skill level with the Gophers or at least a complete nails defensive game I'd put him ahead. Chesley's phased out role at the WJCs also leaves something of a poor taste on his season and he did struggle in that environment. I was a fan in his draft year and he's a very mature player in terms of strength. He's more polished than someone like Allen but I have somewhat similar concerns. Both have a pretty mature strength level but the sense, skill level and decision-making aren't great. Chesley is steadier to be sure but at the NCAA level you'd mainly like more offensive production to be confident in a higher degree of NHL upside. He could have a killer sophomore season in an even bigger and more demanding role and also more of a senior role at the WJCs. For now his stock has lowered a bit one year in IMO.

Cristall's upside is potentially pretty special, even if it may take a while. Suzdalev has a size advantage but doesn't really play to it, has similar off puck pro habits to improve and wasn't a primary facilitator like Cristall. As much as shiny new toy syndrome is a thing I think it's just a function of the paces older prospects are put through at the pro level and how more strenuously they've been challenged. Realistically it's harder to believe in Lapierre's top six NHL upside, for instance. It could still happen but it's less promising than it initially was. Cristall's relatively more rare offensive skill set distinguishes him here. No one has carried their team offensively in junior like he did. He could be a dynamic top six skill player if he brings true pro habits to the table refining his skill set and adopting a more all-around competitive mentality. In addition to getting stronger/faster he'll also need to add some vinegar, play through contact and not be content on the perimeter. But he's got a rarefied skill level and offensive hockey IQ that can be pretty electric. I'm really interested in whether he earns pre-season action and how bold he'll play in that environment if so.
 

HTFN

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My understanding with Chesley is that he wasn't being pushed to expand much offensively as a freshman, but will be asked to do more going forward, like baby Carlson with Green around vs after.
 
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Langway

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I don't think it was just a question of role, though something like regular PP time would nonetheless be beneficial. Maybe with more TOI and a heavier workload he'll work himself into a rhythm and blossom all-around. But I'm not sure he's all that skilled or that he'll be much of a playmaker or point producer in an increased role. He'll be more productive to be sure but I doubt it's night and day. He did I think have a hand/wrist injury, though, which may account for some of it. But laterally and in how he thinks the game generally he doesn't profile as much of a point producer I don't think.

At the very least I'm less inclined to rush him compared to a year ago. Two years with the Gophers seemed like a good idea initially given his physical maturity. But it may take three unless he has a massive breakout next year. Then perhaps another in Hershey. Iorio projects to be ready sooner, of course. I'm not sure either has top three upside but Iorio's bigger frame seems like it should make his adjustment a bit easier. On skill level I think they're pretty similar. Iorio may be slightly more dynamic, though also probably not a strong PP2 guy.
 

HTFN

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I don't think it was just a question of role, though something like regular PP time would nonetheless be beneficial. Maybe with more TOI and a heavier workload he'll work himself into a rhythm and blossom all-around. But I'm not sure he's all that skilled or that he'll be much of a playmaker or point producer in an increased role. He'll be more productive to be sure but I doubt it's night and day. He did I think have a hand/wrist injury, though, which may account for some of it. But laterally and in how he thinks the game generally he doesn't profile as much of a point producer I don't think.

At the very least I'm less inclined to rush him compared to a year ago. Two years with the Gophers seemed like a good idea initially given his physical maturity. But it may take three unless he has a massive breakout next year. Then perhaps another in Hershey. Iorio projects to be ready sooner, of course. I'm not sure either has top three upside but Iorio's bigger frame seems like it should make his adjustment a bit easier. On skill level I think they're pretty similar. Iorio may be slightly more dynamic, though also probably not a strong PP2 guy.
It may be a light comparison but Chesley profiles to me very much like a McDonagh. The scaling could be off but in terms of style vs substance and the game they play, McDonagh never stood out as a wizard even when he was getting his points. With Chesley it just seems like more cerebral reps and a better feel for how he drives the team are going to neutralize some concerns.

The impression in college was that they eased him in because they had a relatively veteran squad who both earned their dues and could afford to float him. Honestly that he played as much as he did is a positive.

Iorio’s got the boom or bust but Chesley seems like a steady pro, just a matter of how high he translates
 
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usiel

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Cristall's upside is potentially pretty special, even if it may take a while. Suzdalev has a size advantage but doesn't really play to it, has similar off puck pro habits to improve and wasn't a primary facilitator like Cristall. As much as shiny new toy syndrome is a thing I think it's just a function of the paces older prospects are put through at the pro level and how more strenuously they've been challenged. Realistically it's harder to believe in Lapierre's top six NHL upside, for instance. It could still happen but it's less promising than it initially was. Cristall's relatively more rare offensive skill set distinguishes him here. No one has carried their team offensively in junior like he did. He could be a dynamic top six skill player if he brings true pro habits to the table refining his skill set and adopting a more all-around competitive mentality. In addition to getting stronger/faster he'll also need to add some vinegar, play through contact and not be content on the perimeter. But he's got a rarefied skill level and offensive hockey IQ that can be pretty electric. I'm really interested in whether he earns pre-season action and how bold he'll play in that environment if so.
Bolded is where I wage war on my recency biases. Cristall, for me, has some significant hurtles to overcome versus Suzdalev. I know me and all the draftniks here have different ways/values that weight floor and upside when figuring out where a Caps prospect slots in ranking-wise. So for the current year draftees just have more weight to overcome.

Alexander Suzdalev led all WHL rookies in goals (38), assists (48), points (86), power play goals (17), and power play assists (19), and tied for first in points per-game (1.30).
And this is him not playing on a line with Bedard (except for PP).
 

Langway

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And this is him not playing on a line with Bedard (except for PP).
Yeah but Cristall scored nine more points in 12 fewer games without Bedard as a teammate while a year younger and the guy on his team. Suzdalev had a strong year but the downstream effects of playing with Bedard had an impact. There were games where they did play together 5v5 and playing on the PP with such a force definitely helps. It also helps 5v5 when not together to fly a bit under the radar and avoid prime match-ups. I'd elevate Suzdalev ahead of Cristall if he had a more projectable pro style but I find both to essentially play a juniors sort of game at the moment. Only Suzdalev is a year older and doesn't have the physical limitations to not play much differently. Suzdalev is bigger and a better skater currently but I'm not sure he offers any more ability to play a physical forechecking or defensively-responsible type role. Maybe he more easily matures into that thanks in part to his size but it remains to be seen.

Re: Chesley I think it's mainly the skating where I don't find he currently tracks to be a potential NHL minute-eater yet. It's just fair and as a relatively physically mature player it makes me wonder how much better he'll improve in that area. Overall sense is also lighter than I thought in his draft year (I was a fan). Maybe the wrist issue threw his offense off a bit down the stretch but at the very least he'll need to get a bit more explosive and better laterally at his size to play a prominent, steadying sort of NHL role. I don't see Iorio as all that boom or bust. He's not much of a risk-taker. He'll lose focus at times but is fairly steady and a bit more put together physically. He knows his role. Iorio is a year ahead so we'll see but overall I think he's tracked a bit better year-to-year and the size advantage IMO allows him to close out a bit better.
 

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