GDT: Capitals @ Devils, 7:00 PM, Jaws

[Bleedred]

Are you kidding? I have to draw the line with this nonsense lmao. It's f***ing Ovechkin unloading a bomb with perfect placement over the pad off a cross ice pass. He's done this over and over, every team knows it's coming but they can't stop it. He puts pucks THROUGH goalies unlike anyone to ever play the game. Mac got over and got his blocker on it but it was almost ripped off his hand with the puck going into the net.

Definitely a fair point. I think it's okay to say ''Yeah, I think that's a much acceptable goal coming from Ovechkin than Garnet Hathaway or Conor Sheary. There a much greater chance he scores on that than one of those guys''.

But goalies have still stopped approximately 87% or 88% of the shots Ovechkin takes in his career. It's probably been a bit less than that in recent years, as he's been outshooting his career percentage the last several years. Not quite this year just yet.

Now that number is somewhat skewed by empty net goal, which I'm sure he has a considerable amount of, which do not get counted against the goalies as a shot against, nor a goal against.

With any of the past 10 goaltenders we've had, and the new guy Vanacek too, I guess.

And likely the next guy and the next guy.


And this is classic you.

It's the Coyotes, man. Those leaky goals come after unbearable pressure. My Yotes fan friend Loves the milkman bc he keeps them in games when they have no biz being there

Well then maybe we should trade for him here, as he's stopped a higher percentage of shots (not by much) than Blackwood has over the last year. Maybe he can save a few more goals for us.

 

[Devs3cups]

With any of the past 10 goaltenders we've had, and the new guy Vanacek too, I guess.

And likely the next guy and the next guy.

Yeah well none of those goalies last year were any good, regardless of how people want to frame it.

I think Daws and Schmid will be good though, they were thrown to the wolves and just weren’t ready. It’s also waaayyyy too early to draw conclusions on Vanecek. I still have hope for him.

Mac, Hammond, Gillies were horrible.

 

[MartyOwns]

Are you kidding? I have to draw the line with this nonsense lmao. It's f***ing Ovechkin unloading a bomb with perfect placement over the pad off a cross ice pass. He's done this over and over, every team knows it's coming but they can't stop it. He puts pucks THROUGH goalies unlike anyone to ever play the game. Mac got over and got his blocker on it but it was almost ripped off his hand with the puck going into the net.

the pk should just have one guy dedicated to ovi. it’s stupid, but the guy scores that goal 9 times out of 10- everyone knows it’s coming, and he scores anyway. put one man on ovi and the other 3 in a diamond.

 

[Bleedred]

Again. After 2minutes of zone time and heavy pressure. If you are going to nitpick the speed of his movement in that play you need to go after the four guys absolutely dogging it around the ice too after being unable to clear the puck putting zero pressure on the passes... And a hall of famer, perhaps the greatest pure goalscorer of all time alone with infinite time, on a one timer.

I mean Christ. Of all the things to nitpick. Please look at all the circumstances, and not just the one second in a vacuum and tell me what percentage of the time do you think Ovi scores there?


According to you, we've had about 12 bad goalies in a row now. About all I will concede is that last year's run of below average plug ins was gross.

Maybe you should consider it is the team play that impacts the numbers. And not the other way around.

And yet you said this about Schneider, Kinkaid and Domingue when they all sucked here during the same years Blackwood did not suck here. That it was the team. I don't remember exactly who said that, but I do believe someone once said that Blackwood is better than those guys because he's just ''REALLY GOOD'' or maybe ''Elite'' while those guys were just average.

 

[My3Sons]

that 3rd line should be wood-haula-mercer

Then where is Hischier going to play?

 

[Killing Joke]

On this goal what is Mack doing? Who is the threat on the right side where he’s hugging the post which results in the shooter to his left scoring?

 

[MartyOwns]

On this goal what is Mack doing? Who is the threat on the right side where he’s hugging the post which results in the shooter to his left scoring?View attachment 598613

that’s your takeaway from that picture? what is our entire team doing?

 

[Devs3cups]

that’s your takeaway from that picture? what is our entire team doing?

SWARM IT UP BABYYYYY

 

[NjDevsRR]

Are you kidding? I have to draw the line with this nonsense lmao. It's f***ing Ovechkin unloading a bomb with perfect placement over the pad off a cross ice pass. He's done this over and over, every team knows it's coming but they can't stop it. He puts pucks THROUGH goalies unlike anyone to ever play the game. Mac got over and got his blocker on it but it was almost ripped off his hand with the puck going into the net.

Holy shit. Thats not the point. IDC if it was the best shot in history. Does that excuse the goalie being slow to the right and deep in the net, not giving himself or the team the best chance to stop it?

IT DOES NOT.

Defending his positioning on that is pathetic .

 

[MasterofGrond]

that’s your takeaway from that picture? what is our entire team doing?

I mean, if Mac is in the right spot, that’s probably not a goal regardless of what the team is doing, no?

 

[billingtons ghost]

I really can't emphasize enough that, on average (last night wasn't great I admit), we don't have more terrible breakdowns than all but the absolute elite teams. If we did they'd show up in xGA numbers and shots against and everywhere else where they're not showing up (unlike GA).

Human brain just picks up negatives when our team does them (because they lead to goals) and tends to ignore them when the other team has them (because they don't lead to goals every single time for reasons I've spent 40 pages articulating).

What is great is that you point out the very biggest weakness of these stats (nearly zero value in qualifying a shot) while praising them and blaming the human brain for bias

And yet you said this about Schneider, Kinkaid and Domingue when they all sucked here during the same years Blackwood did not suck here. That it was the team. I don't remember exactly who said that, but I do believe someone once said that Blackwood is better than those guys because he's just ''REALLY GOOD'' or maybe ''Elite'' while those guys were just average.

Yeah well none of those goalies last year were any good, regardless of how people want to frame it.

I think Daws and Schmid will be good though, they were thrown to the wolves and just weren’t ready. It’s also waaayyyy too early to draw conclusions on Vanecek. I still have hope for him.

Mac, Hammond, Gillies were horrible.

I agree with the past two, and yeah I'm pretty sure Mac's confidence and concussions and heel made him let in alot more than he should have.

He's a young, average goaltender, so get used to more shit if they play like crap in front of him.

 

[bossram]

that’s your takeaway from that picture? what is our entire team doing?

Trying to play the system Ruff wants them to play.

 

[My3Sons]

that’s your takeaway from that picture? what is our entire team doing?

I'm not sure a freeze frame fairly captures that moment one way or the other. I can see that two NJ Devils are on the far side of the play. Maybe one guy should be on the far post but one guy is clearly superfluous. Was the play on that side immediately before? Was the play going behind the net something that they didn't respond to? The guy on the near side was maybe trying to cover the front of the net so he's further from the shooter than he should be. Beyond that something had Blackwood thinking far post. Was it something he heard? Was it something he saw? Was he having a seizure? He's way out of position but it doesn't answer the question why. I didn't see the game but my basic thought is that both are true. The NJ defensive system isn't great and the only defenders that seem to be good defensively are Siegenthaler and Marino (maybe Bahl but who knows at this point). Beyond that Blackwood struggles at times and some of what happens to him seems self-inflicted, like in this photo.

 

[MasterofGrond]

They don’t have nearly zero value in qualifying a shot. A majority of shot value is location! The stats are obviously incomplete right now but they’re significantly more accurate than not using them both statistically and intuitively.

We’re not giving up shots with an expected save percentage 400 bips worse than average based on screens and “wide open looks”

It’s simply not possible

 

[Bleedred]

Yeah well none of those goalies last year were any good, regardless of how people want to frame it.

I think Daws and Schmid will be good though, they were thrown to the wolves and just weren’t ready. It’s also waaayyyy too early to draw conclusions on Vanecek. I still have hope for him.

Mac, Hammond, Gillies were horrible.

Daws just shouldn't have been up last year, not for as long as he was. Schmid probably shouldn't have played more than 1-2 games either and I think he played like 4 or 5.

Hammond was the man behind the most absolute flukiest goalie run of at least the 2010's decade. He was already older at that time when that run started than Blackwood is right now. He had no NHL experience before that and he didn't have too much more NHL experience beyond the year after that fluky run. He was playing the end of that contract in the AHL in favor of the Sens keeping up the younger but now several years retired from hockey Mike Condon. Montreal brought him back from the NHL dead last year after years of not a single call up.

Blackwood is just not a good goalie for whatever reasons. Whether he used to be or not. Maybe injuries ruined him, I'm not as confident in saying that as I was with Cory, who injuries definitely ruined. His career started going downhill as soon as the ''Groin'' issues started, which were really hip problems the whole time, which are sometimes initially misdiagnosed as a ''Groin'' injury. He had core muscle (groin) surgery in the 2016 offseason. 2015-2016 was the best year of his career, because he was doing that as a clear cut starter of close to 60 games (he never played that many games in a season in Vancouver, he never even came close) and then after a very strong October of 2016 and a pretty good stretch of games into November of that year, he fell off a cliff right before Thanksgiving.

Looked to be having a bounce back season in 2017-2018, started missing time with injuries, completely cratered the end of his season, had a very strong 3-4 games in the playoffs, but then he was having hip surgery in the 2018 offseason and the most we got out of him was a 20 game streak of .920% that came in between two different 9-10 game streaks of .850% goaltending. He was toast. He didn't even do well or any better in the AHL in any of the years, up until last season.

Blackwood may not have ever been good (he was before he turned pro) as he had an AHL season worth forgetting about in 17-18 after a pretty average rookie AHL season. And that dreadful season was followed up by a pretty mediocre year, where he played well in the NHL that very same season, just not the AHL.

Keith Kinkaid was a very limited shelf life goalie. Those are goalies that are either typically out of the league full time by 30 or shortly after, or they do it in reverse and don't really stick in the league until they're in their 30's, like Curtis McElhinney, Carter Hutton, maybe even Scott Clemmensen. I famously predicted Keith Kinkaid's expulsion from the league within 2 years around January of 2018. I said something like ''If this guy is still in the league in 2 years from now I'll be shocked''. He was on waivers by December of 2019 and has only been up when Rangers goalies were injured/taxi squad goalie in 2021 cause everybody was allowed 3 goalies to a roster due to covid protocols.

Whether it's injury or not, we don't have any more time to wait for him and stop the clock for him. If he really is still injured then it's probably either permanent or it's just not worth further investment in him or waiting it out. He can't seem to keep up anymore, so we gotta leave him on the ground.

 

[Killing Joke]

Some of you are so used to horrendous goaltending you’re sticking up for a guy because a few times a month he decides not to fully suck.

 

[billingtons ghost]

And yet you said this about Schneider, Kinkaid and Domingue when they all sucked here during the same years Blackwood did not suck here. That it was the team. I don't remember exactly who said that, but I do believe someone once said that Blackwood is better than those guys because he's just ''REALLY GOOD'' or maybe ''Elite'' while those guys were just average.

I'm not sure a freeze frame fairly captures that moment one way or the other. I can see that two NJ Devils are on the far side of the play. Maybe one guy should be on the far post but one guy is clearly superfluous. Was the play on that side immediately before? Was the play going behind the net something that they didn't respond to? The guy on the near side was maybe trying to cover the front of the net so he's further from the shooter than he should be. Beyond that something had Blackwood thinking far post. Was it something he heard? Was it something he saw? Was he having a seizure? He's way out of position but it doesn't answer the question why. I didn't see the game but my basic thought is that both are true. The NJ defensive system isn't great and the only defenders that seem to be good defensively are Siegenthaler and Marino (maybe Bahl but who knows at this point). Beyond that Blackwood struggles at times and some of what happens to him seems self-inflicted, like in this photo.

This is the only goal I didn't like from Mac on the night. He switched sides bc the Cap was going around behind the net, but then he didn't go back to the post.

On the Hathaway goal, After making the pass behind the net to trusty dman Severson he hustled back in front but wasn't really set for the shot.

I'd love to have a perfect goalie again like we did for twenty years. It just isn't going to happen. These guys we have now are average and we are grinding them down to garbage.

Did I ever say MB29 was elite, or Really good? I don't think so, but I think if you put him in a good situation he could be/could have been.

Some of you are so used to horrendous goaltending you’re sticking up for a guy because a few times a month he decides not to fully suck.

Some of us realize that we aren't dealing for Vasilevskiy tomorrow, and what you see is what you're gonna get so maybe it is time to start pulling for the team to give him a little bit of help.

 

[Bleedred]

What is great is that you point out the very biggest weakness of these stats (nearly zero value in qualifying a shot) while praising them and blaming the human brain for bias



I agree with the past two, and yeah I'm pretty sure Mac's confidence and concussions and heel made him let in alot more than he should have.

He's a young, average goaltender, so get used to more shit if they play like crap in front of him.

Like I said, if his concussions and heel are still a problem, then it's time to leave him on the ground and go it without him.

He's really not worth the investment anymore, just like Schneider. If we had kept Schneider around, he probably would have been better than Jon Gillies and Andrew Hammond last year and maybe even Daws and Blackwood as well. He had a really good AHL season (doesn't mean he would have had a good NHL season) but he couldn't keep up anymore, so we had to leave him on the ground and ship him to the glue factory.

 

[billingtons ghost]

They don’t have nearly zero value in qualifying a shot. A majority of shot value is location! The stats are obviously incomplete right now but they’re significantly more accurate than not using them both statistically and intuitively.

We’re not giving up shots with an expected save percentage 400 bips worse than average based on screens and “wide open looks”

It’s simply not possible

Purely untrue rubbish. There are so many components to make up a good shot and it's success is much more reliant upon a goalies vision.

If they can see it, they can usually stop it.

 

[Bleedred]

This is the only goal I didn't like from Mac on the night. He switched sides bc the Cap was going around behind the net, but then he didn't go back to the post.

On the Hathaway goal, After making the pass behind the net to trusty dman Severson he hustled back in front but wasn't really set for the shot.

I'd love to have a perfect goalie again like we did for twenty years. It just isn't going to happen. These guys we have now are average and we are grinding them down to garbage.

Did I ever say MB29 was elite, or Really good? I don't think so, but I think if you put him in a good situation he could be/could have been.


Some of us realize that we aren't dealing for Vasilevskiy tomorrow, and what you see is what you're gonna get so maybe it is time to start pulling for the team to give him a little bit of help.

Which goal was it that you said you didn't like? Was that the first one? I haven't watched any of them again since last night, but I'm gonna have to go through all of last night's goals in the league again here in a few.

 

[MartyOwns]

I mean, if Mac is in the right spot, that’s probably not a goal regardless of what the team is doing, no?

who knows? probably not. point is, if our team is going to get out worked 3 on 5 down low and allow a shot, any imperfection from our goalie means the puck goes in our net. we’re not doing blackwood, vanecek, or anyone else any favors by playing that way. or by bratt putting passes on the other team’s tape, leaving ovi alone in his wheelhouse, etc etc.

we have two average goalies, so we need some better defensive structure to help them. look at philly’s goalies- that’s a big reason why i wanted torts here.

 

[MasterofGrond]

Purely untrue rubbish. There are so many components to make up a good shot and it's success is much more reliant upon a goalies vision.

If they can see it, they can usually stop it.

So you simply don’t believe in statistical analysis. Not just in hockey, but period full stop. Because every single one suggests the single most important component for whether a guy scores on a shot is location. Obviously some shots are easier to save than others, because of all those factors you mention. But in the aggregate, location is the single strongest correlation.

An opinion you can have, of course, but not one I think is entirely reasonable in 2022.