Canucks Biggest Draft Booms and Busts since 2000

[iceburg]

This inevitably will lead to the probability argument again. After the mid 2nd round probabilities of making it are low. Good scouting and developing organizations will demonstrate a higher success rate overall. BUt to say any one player below say spot 45 is a bust, is not appropriate. Somewhat sadly, in the 19 years from 2000 to 2018 (not counting 2019 draft for obvious reasons) they only had around 20 picks. They, along with their draft position and my rough rating (1-5, 1 being huge success, 3 being as expected, 1 being huge disappointment), are as follows:

Hughes (7) - 5. Star already.
Woo (37) - 3. Second round pick that, even though he had a down year, still projects to have an NHL career.
Pettersson (5) - 5. Star already
Lind (33) - 3. Trending upward. Projects to be an NHLer. Time will tell.
Juolevi (5) - 2. Can't argue that he isn't a big disappointment. The only reason he isn't a 1 is because he still has a small amount of time not to move into the complete bust category.
Boeser (23) - 5. Impact vs draft position is excellent.
Virtanen (6) - 2. Could have very long NHL career. But at 6th overall, a pick is expected to be a solid top 6 forward, which he is not after 6 years. BTW. I am a huge JV fan but have to be realistic.
McCann (24) - 4. Solid performance based on later 1st round pick.
Demko (36): 4. Makings of a #1 goalie.
Horvat (9) - 4.5. Top 6 NHL and "foundational player" without a doubt. Didn't give 5 only because Hughes and Pettersson need to be separated.
Shinkaruk (24) - 2. A little disappointment. But late first round picks are 50/50.
Gaunce (26) - 2. See Shinkaruk
Jensen (29) - 2. See Shinkaruk and Gaunce.
Schroeder (22) - See Shinkaruk, Gaunce, & Jensen
Hodgson (10) - 3 would have been lower except that he was a legitimate NHLer that was having a reasonable career until injuries caught up to him.
Sauve (41) - 2. Not much to expect from 41 overall. It would have been nice for him to show better at the NHL level.
White (25) - 1. Never had a sniff
Grabner (14) - 4 Very solid NHLer though one dimensional.
Bourdon (10) R.I.P.
Schneider (26) - 4 Top tier goalie for a time. Expected from a goalie taken in the first round.
Kesler (23) - 5 Foundational player with very solid all around skill set found later in the 1st round.
Umberger (16) - 4 Long NHL career. Did not factor in challenges with Vancouver.
Smith(16) 1. Expect way more from a middle 1st rounder.

Somewhat arbitrarily I based the ratings mainly on a gut feel of "NHL impact" vs expectation of "NHL impact" based on draft position. 3 means actual NHL impact meets with their expected NHL impact based on draft position. For example, Virtanen, based on his draft position and his relatively long development curve topping out at a middle 6 forward, is disappointing but not a bust. He gets a 2 even though he may go on to have a long NHL career. Gaunce on the other hand, also gets a 2 even though he may never see the NHL again. At pick 26, a 3 might be a forward who ends up having a 300 to 400 game career as a bottom 6 forward. Again this is somewhat arbitrary but I was trying to figure out a way to mesh expectations based on draft position with actual impact. Note, the more recent picks are partially based on projection of impact.

On the later picks, 46 and above, again I can't bring myself to call any one a bust. But there have nice finds. In order:
Edler (91)
Bieksa (151)
Hansen (287)
Gaudette (149)
Raymond (51)
Hutton (147)
Cannauton (83)
Tryamkin (66)
Brown (159)

 

[iceburg]

I played with the Vancouver T-Birds until second year Pee Wee when I moved to the North Shore. My Dad and his siblings had fond memories of NSWC from their youth - in the 60s - so it seemed logical for me to play there. What a shit show. I ate, slept and breathed hockey prior to that year, and that year made me quit. Everyone was out for No. 1, and as crazy as the players were, the parents were worse. So I quit and didn’t play again until second year midget...with North Van Minor Hockey. This would have been around 2001 or 2002. I’ll bet you money we wore the exact same duds you wore as a kid - they were beaten, battered, moth eaten, pilly 1970s style Canucks jerseys. That year was violent as hell, but at least it was fun and our team felt like a team.

Wow, you’re bringing back memories. Playing NSWC, Burnaby Winter club, and MacPherson Winter club were always games to look forward to For us guys from the other side of the tracks.

 

[Mr. Canucklehead]

Yes, if you wore #14 midget jersey that was my moths that had been chewing on it.

It's funny, my kid has played T-Birds for the past 9 years, I've coached his teams and now consider myself as much a T-Bird as NVMHA (they were never called Storm when I was there).

He also played on a NSWC spring team so we got to know some of those families well. It was funny, as the goalie he was never a threat to the players, all the families were just happy there was a target in net.

As for parents, well, I would have to share it in a PM. Fortunately my daughter is in dance, hockey dads and dance moms make each other look equally . . . sane . . .

Haha I think I actually did wear 14 in midget. And I know what you mean - both my boys play on the Kitimat Minor Hockey system (Winterhawks) and they proudly rep the logo and colours - I do too with my coach jacket and hat. Loved my time with the T-Birds as a kid but yeah, definitely feel like a Winterhawk myself now. NVMHA didn’t have a name when I was going through it either.

Wow, you’re bringing back memories. Playing NSWC, Burnaby Winter club, and MacPherson Winter club were always games to look forward to For us guys from the other side of the tracks.

I can imagine. I don’t think I ever played against NSWC once I moved to NVMHA, but man I would have licked my chops at the thought of beating them. I realize one team doesn’t a whole Association make, but man - my experience with the winter club was just awful.

 

[iceburg]

I can imagine. I don’t think I ever played against NSWC once I moved to NVMHA, but man I would have licked my chops at the thought of beating them. I realize one team doesn’t a whole Association make, but man - my experience with the winter club was just awful.

Way back when I went to the Charlie Hodge hockey school, which Charlie Hodge ran, and the NSWC kids were just a$$holes. It didn’t end well.
I’m a little older than you. So we loved to face off against Cliff and the crew at BWC. Some good times. All the time wanting to show the kids with money couldn’t beat us schmucks. Lol

 

[Mr. Canucklehead]

Way back when I went to the Charlie Hodge hockey school, which Charlie Hodge ran, and the NSWC kids were just a$$holes. It didn’t end well.
I’m a little older than you. So we loved to face off against Cliff and the crew at BWC. Some good times. All the time wanting to show the kids with money couldn’t beat us schmucks. Lol

Sounds about right LOL. I found the parents crazier than the kids at NSWC, but the kids were something else. There was one kid on the team who would break his stick in half over the net every time we lost a game. And every time, his Dad would shell out for a new one. He went through nine or ten sticks that year, and I remember one time as the final seconds were ticking off the clock and we were about to lose a close game, I heard this long, built up “nnnnnnnnnnnNNNNNNOOOOOOOOO!!!”And I turned to see the kid smash his stick over the net - the scream was his Dad trying in vain to stop it from happening - when all he had to realize was he just needed to not buy the kid a new stick...

 

[iceburg]

Sounds about right LOL. I found the parents crazier than the kids at NSWC, but the kids were something else. There was one kid on the team who would break his stick in half over the net every time we lost a game. And every time, his Dad would shell out for a new one. He went through nine or ten sticks that year, and I remember one time as the final seconds were ticking off the clock and we were about to lose a close game, I heard this long, built up “nnnnnnnnnnnNNNNNNOOOOOOOOO!!!”And I turned to see the kid smash his stick over the net - the scream was his Dad trying in vain to stop it from happening - when all he had to realize was he just needed to not buy the kid a new stick...

Hahaha...that sounds about right. I used the same sticks for 3 years...

 

[I am toxic]

Haha I think I actually did wear 14 in midget. And I know what you mean - both my boys play on the Kitimat Minor Hockey system (Winterhawks) and they proudly rep the logo and colours - I do too with my coach jacket and hat. Loved my time with the T-Birds as a kid but yeah, definitely feel like a Winterhawk myself now. NVMHA didn’t have a name when I was going through it either.



I can imagine. I don’t think I ever played against NSWC once I moved to NVMHA, but man I would have licked my chops at the thought of beating them. I realize one team doesn’t a whole Association make, but man - my experience with the winter club was just awful.

I have to share this - 2 seasons ago, my son's PeeWee A3 team met NSWC A3 (and BWC A3 and Langley A3) in the PCAHA Final Four for Tier 3.

Lost to Langley 2-1, tied BWC 2-2, and beat NSWC 2-1. My kid and I knew every kid on NSWC A3 from spring hockey, it was a very friendly rivalry but we knocked them out, and went on to Provincials as a result.

Any day an Association team beats a Winter Club team is a great day. Well, not Arbutus.

 

[I am toxic]

Wow, you’re bringing back memories. Playing NSWC, Burnaby Winter club, and MacPherson Winter club were always games to look forward to For us guys from the other side of the tracks.

I have vague memories of the Capilano Winter Club. I think.

God what a dump that rink was.


eta: omg, live and learn

 

[I am toxic]

Way back when I went to the Charlie Hodge hockey school, which Charlie Hodge ran, and the NSWC kids were just a$$holes. It didn’t end well.
I’m a little older than you. So we loved to face off against Cliff and the crew at BWC. Some good times. All the time wanting to show the kids with money couldn’t beat us schmucks. Lol

Well, the older siblings of my friends played with Brett and Burnaby Joe when he was there, never heard a bad thing about them. I do recall one summer day sitting on the curb of upper Montroyal as we watched the Hull's house burn to the ground. Bart was with us, but Brett was already all growed up.

Joe Murphy, otoh, we knew each other well . . . I'll leave it at that.

 

[Foundational Player]

 

[iceburg]

Well, the older siblings of my friends played with Brett and Burnaby Joe when he was there, never heard a bad thing about them. I do recall one summer day sitting on the curb of upper Montroyal as we watched the Hull's house burn to the ground. Bart was with us, but Brett was already all growed up.

Joe Murphy, otoh, we knew each other well . . . I'll leave it at that.

Never had any problem with the BWC players other than the fact they were incredibly competitive, which is a good thing. Yeah, it's always interesting to follow the careers of NHL players that you played against. I was a goalie (I guess technically still am) and had the pleasure of being lit up by a number of them back in the day.

 

[MS]

Well, the older siblings of my friends played with Brett and Burnaby Joe when he was there, never heard a bad thing about them. I do recall one summer day sitting on the curb of upper Montroyal as we watched the Hull's house burn to the ground. Bart was with us, but Brett was already all growed up.

Joe Murphy, otoh, we knew each other well . . . I'll leave it at that.

Heh, I’m going to have to ask for more details on Murphy, given what’s happened to him in recent years (and it’s not like you can harm his reputation no matter what you say!). Was the guy always an edgy oddball?

 

[I am toxic]

Heh, I’m going to have to ask for more details on Murphy, given what’s happened to him in recent years (and it’s not like you can harm his reputation no matter what you say!). Was the guy always an edgy oddball?

Well, I never would have predicted where he is now, but I generally got along with everyone in high school, but not Joe.

At the time, I disliked him, mostly relating to our street hockey games - he was twice my size (almost literally, I was 120lb in grade 12) and he couldn't turn off the competitive fire - he would body check me and slash me (I was the only one who would really engage with him, the others learned to keep their distance, being a small guy I felt I couldn't back down from anything).

Also his attitude. My impression (to put it mildly) was he felt superior, and with age I can understand it better. While we were prepping for exams and figuring out how to smuggle alcohol onto our grad harbour cruise boat, he was getting drafted to the NHL.

Being old now, I think it was a bad combination of home life, and getting to be almost a superstar at a young age (drafted 1st OA, later won the Cup early on with the Oilers on the Kid Line with Graves and Gelinas). I'm so past those days, and I just wish things were better for him. But unless a person wants to be helped, or wants to change, it's tough. Mental health is still stygmatized, no matter how much "speak out" is put out there.

 

[ChilliBilly]

It all just brings back tough memories. Hockey in the '70's wasn't painful, it was masochism.

Canucks.

Blazers.

North Van Minor Hockey Association (used the same logo as the '70's Canucks, I got stomped by my friends who all left to go to NSWC).

Why I am still involved in hockey to this day is a mystery. I now realize I suffered from hockey depression from 1973 to 1994 when we finally made it to the Cup Final with legit stars and a HHoF player.

One of my favorite hockey stories. A guy I worked with for the DNV was the highest scoring player in the NSWC league in in the over 40's and the over 50's in cumulative goals. Don Ehl. 20 years ago (or so) Tiger Williams (who was a neighbor of ours) skated up to him before a game and asked him where he played junior. He said I never played in junior. So where did you play your hockey? Don said "I didn't start playing until I was 27". Tiger just looked at him for a second and skated away. He was able to outscore ex NHL players. He had 7 goals in a game. Fast as hell, and was maybe 5'6" and 130 lbs.

 

[Fatass]

Agreed.

 

[I am toxic]

One of my favorite hockey stories. A guy I worked with for the DNV was the highest scoring player in the NSWC league in in the over 40's and the over 50's in cumulative goals. Don Ehl. 20 years ago (or so) Tiger Williams (who was a neighbor of ours) skated up to him before a game and asked him where he played junior. He said I never played in junior. So where did you play your hockey? Don said "I didn't start playing until I was 27". Tiger just looked at him for a second and skated away. He was able to outscore ex NHL players. He had 7 goals in a game. Fast as hell, and was maybe 5'6" and 130 lbs.

Ha! Talent is a funny thing.

Speaking of Tiger, I used to go the Gold's Gym near Cap Mall (when it was on the north side of Marine Drive) in the '90's, would often see Tiger working out there.

I have never been afraid of another person in my life . . . but I was afraid of him.

 

[MS]

Well, I never would have predicted where he is now, but I generally got along with everyone in high school, but not Joe.

At the time, I disliked him, mostly relating to our street hockey games - he was twice my size (almost literally, I was 120lb in grade 12) and he couldn't turn off the competitive fire - he would body check me and slash me (I was the only one who would really engage with him, the others learned to keep their distance, being a small guy I felt I couldn't back down from anything).

Also his attitude. My impression (to put it mildly) was he felt superior, and with age I can understand it better. While we were prepping for exams and figuring out how to smuggle alcohol onto our grad harbour cruise boat, he was getting drafted to the NHL.

Being old now, I think it was a bad combination of home life, and getting to be almost a superstar at a young age (drafted 1st OA, later won the Cup early on with the Oilers on the Kid Line with Graves and Gelinas). I'm so past those days, and I just wish things were better for him. But unless a person wants to be helped, or wants to change, it's tough. Mental health is still stygmatized, no matter how much "speak out" is put out there.

Yeah. It’s very sad. Murphy has so many more people trying to help him than the average homeless person but his paranoia causes him to refuse that help. The NHLPA got him an apartment but he moved out of it back onto the street, and large sums of money he could get as a concussion settlement are passed up because he’s scared of doctors.

It’s fascinating to see you say he ‘couldn’t turn the competitive fire off’ given he was considered kind of a lazy enigma/underachiever most of his career. Shows just how high the standards are of the average NHL player.

 

[Mr. Canucklehead]

One of my favorite hockey stories. A guy I worked with for the DNV was the highest scoring player in the NSWC league in in the over 40's and the over 50's in cumulative goals. Don Ehl. 20 years ago (or so) Tiger Williams (who was a neighbor of ours) skated up to him before a game and asked him where he played junior. He said I never played in junior. So where did you play your hockey? Don said "I didn't start playing until I was 27". Tiger just looked at him for a second and skated away. He was able to outscore ex NHL players. He had 7 goals in a game. Fast as hell, and was maybe 5'6" and 130 lbs.

Some of the best guys I’ve played against are guys who never played a lick of rep or junior - just played for fun or picked it up late, and really started practicing / honing their skills as an adult. Always fun when you get the young kids joining the league who played rep / Junior B / Junior A and watch them get tuned by some of these guys - their disbelief is kind of hysterical.

 

[iceburg]

Some of the best guys I’ve played against are guys who never played a lick of rep or junior - just played for fun or picked it up late, and really started practicing / honing their skills as an adult. Always fun when you get the young kids joining the league who played rep / Junior B / Junior A and watch them get tuned by some of these guys - their disbelief is kind of hysterical.

The most talented guy I ever played with never made it to the NHL. He topped out in the IHL and became a star in the West Coast Hockey League (which was absorbed into the ECHL). I swear he had softer hands than a lot of guys that made it to the show. In practice he used to come in on me and, lacrosse-style, pick up the puck and throw it in the top corner at speed...not much you can do.
It happens at all levels...guys that had the talent but, for whatever reason, never moved on.

 

[ChilliBilly]

Some of the best guys I’ve played against are guys who never played a lick of rep or junior - just played for fun or picked it up late, and really started practicing / honing their skills as an adult. Always fun when you get the young kids joining the league who played rep / Junior B / Junior A and watch them get tuned by some of these guys - their disbelief is kind of hysterical.

so just curious, how many NHL'ers have you played with? i think I am at 11. I never played with Tiger. The best was David Archibald, oh my god he was in another league altogether. Oh, and if anyone wonders, I am not a good hockey player. The guys who have played at the various HF boards Vancouver get together games can testify. I am decent for an old man (I am usually the oldest by 10 - 15 years) but Mr Canucklehead is another league from me.

 

[Mr. Canucklehead]

so just curious, how many NHL'ers have you played with? i think I am at 11. I never played with Tiger. The best was David Archibald, oh my god he was in another league altogether. Oh, and if anyone wonders, I am not a good hockey player. The guys who have played at the various HF boards Vancouver get together games can testify. I am decent for an old man (I am usually the oldest by 10 - 15 years) but Mr Canucklehead is another league from me.

You’re too kind - I only played house as a kid; I played with a few guys who played Junior A and NCAA when they were older. But after being cut from my first rep tryout, my parents never wanted me to do it again. I definitely got better as an adult, and can hold my own against some pretty solid players - the men’s A leagues that I played in were thickly populated with guys who played Junior A and Junior B, and only a handful that played collegiate or pro. No NHLers though.

Now if we are counting Alumni games, I’ve played with tons.

 

[I am toxic]

Yeah. It’s very sad. Murphy has so many more people trying to help him than the average homeless person but his paranoia causes him to refuse that help. The NHLPA got him an apartment but he moved out of it back onto the street, and large sums of money he could get as a concussion settlement are passed up because he’s scared of doctors.

It’s fascinating to see you say he ‘couldn’t turn the competitive fire off’ given he was considered kind of a lazy enigma/underachiever most of his career. Shows just how high the standards are of the average NHL player.

Aggression might have been the less diplomatic term. The thing is he could have beaten me cleanly with just a little bit of effort (I may be small but I am quick and tenacious). Rather than make a bit more effort to get position on me and stick check me cleanly, he would knock me down - or slash me - before I could get clear. Of course, if he decided to move fast, I doubt I would have been able to get clear.

(On a tengent - as a coach now, I get a little frustrated when my better players backcheck by coasting and reaching from behind. It's lazy, and the opposing puck carrier will easily fight it off and get the puck down the ice - which means all 5 skaters on your team have to burn energy to get back. A bit of effort early in the backcheck can lead to a quick turnover, much less skating for everyone, and a good chance to catch the other team going the wrong way and getting an odd-man rush.)

 

[ChilliBilly]

You’re too kind - I only played house as a kid; I played with a few guys who played Junior A and NCAA when they were older. But after being cut from my first rep tryout, my parents never wanted me to do it again. I definitely got better as an adult, and can hold my own against some pretty solid players - the men’s A leagues that I played in were thickly populated with guys who played Junior A and Junior B, and only a handful that played collegiate or pro. No NHLers though.

Now if we are counting Alumni games, I’ve played with tons.

you've seen me play like 3 times. Not being "too kind". The guy I played the most with was Garth butcher in Bellingham. A very nice guy. Maybe 50, or 100 games. Gave me hell a couple of times. Once "I didn't pas it to you so you could give it to that lazy asshole". Another where I faked a pass to him and then stepped between two defenders and scored. "What am I just a f***ing decoy"?

 

[Mr. Canucklehead]

you've seen me play like 3 times. Not being "too kind". The guy I played the most with was Garth butcher in Bellingham. A very nice guy. Maybe 50, or 100 games. Gave me hell a couple of times. Once "I didn't pas it to you so you could give it to that lazy asshole". Another where I faked a pass to him and then stepped between two defenders and scored. "What am I just a f***ing decoy"?

That’s awesome.

 

[Hit the post]

you've seen me play like 3 times. Not being "too kind". The guy I played the most with was Garth butcher in Bellingham. A very nice guy. Maybe 50, or 100 games. Gave me hell a couple of times. Once "I didn't pas it to you so you could give it to that lazy asshole". Another where I faked a pass to him and then stepped between two defenders and scored. "What am I just a f***ing decoy"?

I remember the day we drafted him. I thought he was going to be one mean mother@#$%#$%!. With a name like that - how could he not be? Plus his coach on the Pats was that nutso Bill LaForge! (at least I *think*). Ended up being an ok #4 D (again, I *think*). On the tough guy department? Well, he wasn't so great in the fisticuffs. But I will say this, he NEVER failed to answer the bell when it rang. Developed the fighting technique of trying to injure the opponents hands by banging his head against them (ok, I've already said this too many times already lol).