Canes may not be in as good shape cap wise as we think, for next season

[mikeyfan]

Going through the numbers for next season, wondering what we have and what we need

Here is the Forwards we have under contract for next season:

Aho, Svech, KOKO, Staal, Bunting, Fast Total salary is $32,120,000.00

FA or RFA's
Noesen
Necas
Tevo
Martinook
Jarvis
Drury

Which do we sign and who do we let go? I plugged in a potential salary for each individual what I though we could possible sign them for.

Noesen 1,800,000.00
Necas 5,000,000.00 (Arbitration Rights)
Tevo 6,000,000.00
Martinook 2,000,000.00
Jarvis 5,000,000.00 (bridge deal 4 to 5 years)
Drury 2,000,000.00 (Arbitration Rights)

That would bring our Forward Total to $53,920,000.00

We have 3 Defensemen signed for another $18,330,000.00
Our FA:
Skjei
Pesce
Chatfield
DeAngelo

Saying we sign Skjei at $6,500,000 and Chatfield at $3,000,000.00

That brings our Defense Dollars to $27,830,000.00

Goalies
Andersen - $3,400,000.00
Kochetkov - $2,000,000.00
Total Goalies $5,400.000.00

Total Spent with my projected Cost - $87,150,000.00
Total Cap Next season- $87,500,000.00
Remaining Cap: $350,000.00

My point is, it looks like next years team is going to have to look a lot different than this years team, a lot different player wise. Now is the time to go all in and potentially trade a Pesce, Necas, or Tevo or better yet an Orlov so we just fill in the blanks next season instead of a complete and total facelift.

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[MrazeksVengeance]

We have 5.4M IN GOALIES WITHOUT ACTUALLY HAVING A GOALIE.

GREAT.

 

[Derailed75]

Wouldn't panic yet. Jarvis, Noesem, and Drury will be brought back some of those other guy will get replaced with cheaper option. Nachos is almost certainly gone.

The only D that is a lock to come back is Chat, and with the year Pesce has had he ain't getting what he though he very well may resign for a much more reasonable figure.

There will be turn over and more cap then you have listed

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

55 million set for next year.

It is unlikely Pesce or Skjei come back.

32.5 million to get

Jarvis re-signed. 8 year deal is around 6.5 million per, maybe 7
Necas re-signed? maybe
Get 1 top 4RHD
get a bottom pairing defense
1 depth defender
Get a C
Get 2 wingers
re-sign martinook

Svech-Aho-Necas?
Bunting-KK-Jarvis
Martinook-Staal-Fast
??-??-??

Slavin-Burns
Orlov-??
??-??

Kooch
Andersen?

I would say we are in pretty good shape myself.

Lets say we get Jarvis tied up for 8. that leaves 26 million for the rest. That is easily doable. Even with Necas getting 8 x 7 or 7.5 million. 18-19 million for a 4th line, a 2RD, and a 3rd pair. That would be really easy. We would have enough space to get another top 6 winger and fill the other needs.

love noesen but he will get an overvalue deal from some team lacking depth and not live up to the billing. he will be missed but not for the 3-4 million he will get on the market this offseason.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

A few nitpicks with the projections:

- 4 or 5 years for Jarvis is not a bridge deal. That's a walk to UFA. They won't do that. He'll either get 2 to 3 years or upwards of the max. Adjust the cost down or up as necessary.

- Teravainen is a perimeter forward (albeit great defensively) on pace for ~48 points. He's not getting $6 mil from any team.

Overall, not having to shoehorn cheap, young players into a Top 9 and Top 4 is a good spot to be in.
There's a max talent version for most contenders. Tampa 2021 is a great example. Gourde, Coleman, Goodrow, McDonagh, Palat and Killorn have all exited town in the years since. Washington 2017 is another; Alzner, Williams, Johansson, Shattenkirk departed the offseason before the Cup win. This is that year for the core/early core of this era.

 

[bleedgreen]

If we traded for a goalie next year I’d assume one of the two we have go back in the deal to cushion the blow. TT is the one I think for sure goes. Makes no sense to lose Necas, and the team generally likes paying younger players. If TT wanted six for some term I don’t think there’s any way he’s staying. I think we’re going to see an extension with him in the next couple of months if he’s staying. The main reason for signing him would be that he might take less to stay with Aho because he knows he has it better here than anywhere else in the league. Give TT’s money to Necas.

I think we’re looking at some cheap vet bottom six players or they’re going to make Rod play Suzuki, Rees, Pono..etc which is probably the way to go. I could see Martinook moving on unless he takes a cut. That’s where you’re supposed to find cheap labor or raise your own. Noesen is gone unless he takes some cheaper security from us over the unknown. We’re likely to replace him with more of him. We like finding undervalued players like him and likely try to strike gold again. Drury stays on a cheap bridge like deal to see if he can grow some more offensively.

The defense is a conundrum. Skjei likely gets the money over Pesce to me because he’s still trending upward, skates like the wind and is still discovering he has more game. Pesce isn’t dropping imo the way others think but he is what he is, there’s only perfecting his existing game not adding to it.

Replacing Pesce is an issue. Chatfield isn’t the answer though we may stick him there anyways.