News Article: Canadian draft, no, not about beer.

[Drivesaitl]

I've wanted to make this thread for awhile. Not just due to the 2019 draft but due to clear trending in picks away from Canadian players.

Historically, over a Century the NHL was composed overwhelmingly of Canadian players. Not long ago over 50% of NHL players came from our country. But the figure has now been whittled down to around 45% Canadian content.

In the most recent draft only 32% of picked players were Canadian. Still leading, but by a slender margin. The top picked Canadian was 3rd. Again would have to be considered a failure of the Hockey Canada program that only 3 out of the top 15 picked players were Canadian. This being a country that at one time would often feed a dozen of those top picks. Information can all be seen here and interesting to look at;

2019 NHL Entry Draft - Wikipedia

I encourage people to scroll down to bottom of page where Draft by Country and draft by Province or State is listed. Some stats that leap off the page. 1 Hockey player from Manitoba was picked in a 31 team draft. Just one. A historic low point for a province that has fed 400 NHL players. Its startling to consider that only one Manitoba kid was picked and that being an after thought at 202 in the seventh round. It was looking like a shutout. Consider that California had 5 picks. Florida, Rhode Island, Oklahoma, Missouri had 1 pick. Yukon had a first round pick. Go figure. There are about as many registered hockey players in Manitoba as the entire population of the Yukon.

Quebec, a former hockey hotbed that was feeding dynasties and who's French names imbue the star annals of hockey had 11 players picked. Quebec, by way of contrast was feeding more players into the NHL in an original 6 team league. Still 90k registered hockey players in Quebec, more than most hockey countries, and only 11 players drafted in what used to be a pipeline.

Sweden per capita, per registered player is owning the NHL draft. 10 times as many Canadians are registered hockey players but yet Sweden had 37% as many players picked. On sheer numbers about 3.7 times as much as would be expected in relation to Canada.

Yet Canada is still the hockey participation heartland.

Ice hockey players per country worldwide 2017/18 | Statistic

Looking at that stat one would think the vast majority of NHL picked players should be domestic, Canadian or American. Thats the brunt of the hockey participation on the planet. They comprise 1.2M players. Europe comprises approximately 500k players. So Europe Comprises 29% of registered hockey players but make up 42% of picked players.

I'll post more content and numbers but just wanted to get the ball rolling on a discussion of what is happening with the NHL draft and scouting.

Here btw are the registration listings by province. You have to know the logo of the provinces, its on page 15

https://cdn.hockeycanada.ca/hockey-canada/Corporate/About/Downloads/2016-17-annual-report-e.pdf

Click to read more...

 

[Pointteen]

The game is growing. That's about the only explanation I have with no real research.

I think it is awesome. Not only do I get to say more names that sound cool. But diversity is awesome.

 

[Drivesaitl]

The game is growing. That's about the only explanation I have with no real research.

I think it is awesome. Not only do I get to say more names that sound cool. But diversity is awesome.

Personally I think some scouting bias is currently involved. Scouts are increasingly scouting the world for mad skillz but meanwhile Canadian players historically, and still make up many stars in the game and play inordinately well in the playoffs and often get their name on the cup.

To wit, The STL Blues, the most Canadian team in the NHL (I love that kind of lineup) just won the cup, and despite Swedish D being uber sexy in the draft 6/7 of the Blues Defensemen are Canadian. The one Swede blueliner they had was lousy, the 7D. Parayko, a forgotten player, is one of the best D on the planet for my money. Fine local lad. Somehow, scouts of every other team in the NHL missed this player. Playing right in the hockey heartland. Not in far off hockey hinterland, right in the hockey bread basket. Somehow, Edmonton and Calgary scouts and orgs knew nothing about this player. A disgrace to both orgs and Canadian scouting in general. This player was a ringer. The Blues sniff him out from thousands of miles away. Meanwhile the Oilers are pounding sand scouting players far away and getting little of value.

Meanwhile Erik Karlsson, the highly paid swede, and exhibit A for how much Swede D are touted crashes and burns his way through a playoffs being one of the main reasons the Sharks were beaten in two playoff rounds.. But immediately after the Karlsson flame out, and the Blues rampant Canadian D success, its immediately back to adoring Swedish D and players at the 2019 draft.

 

[Feisty1]

It’s a trend that will continue. Canadian coaching and teams at a young age are too concerned about winning games and system play instead of putting players in a system that is based on individual skill development. A friend of mine from Sweden ( ex NHL player) explained to me that they run academies there that aren’t based on a team structure. The skill academy is based on trying to make each individual player as skilled and good as possible outside of a team structure. Their skill academies do not play games as a team. The players are on teams outside of the academy system to play their games. Their academy skill programs and drills are individual skill not a practice plan based on the teams win lose record.

 

[MessierII]

Personally I think some scouting bias is currently involved. Scouts are increasingly scouting the world for mad skillz but meanwhile Canadian players historically, and still make up many stars in the game and play inordinately well in the playoffs and often get their name on the cup.

To wit, The STL Blues, the most Canadian team in the NHL (I love that kind of lineup) just won the cup, and despite Swedish D being uber sexy in the draft 6/7 of the Blues Defensemen are Canadian. The one Swede blueliner they had was lousy, the 7D. Parayko, a forgotten player, is one of the best D on the planet for my money. Fine local lad. Somehow, scouts of every other team in the NHL missed this player. Playing right in the hockey heartland. Not in far off hockey hinterland, right in the hockey bread basket. Somehow, Edmonton and Calgary scouts and orgs knew nothing about this player. A disgrace to both orgs and Canadian scouting in general. This player was a ringer. The Blues sniff him out from thousands of miles away. Meanwhile the Oilers are pounding sand scouting players far away and getting little of value.

Meanwhile Erik Karlsson, the highly paid swede, and exhibit A for how much Swede D are touted crashes and burns his way through a playoffs being one of the main reasons the Sharks were beaten in two playoff rounds.. But immediately after the Karlsson flame out, and the Blues rampant Canadian D success, its immediately back to adoring Swedish D and players at the 2019 draft.

Karlsson was playing on one leg though. You can’t really chalk that up to euro choking or something. Anyways expect an astounding number of euros on Edmonton in the coming years under Holland.

 

[Drivesaitl]

It’s a trend that will continue. Canadian coaching and teams at a young age are too concerned about winning games and system play instead of putting players in a system that is based on individual skill development. A friend of mine from Sweden ( ex NHL player) explained to me that they run academies there that aren’t based on a team structure. The skill academy is based on trying to make each individual player as skilled and good as possible outside of a team structure. Their skill academies do not play games as a team. The players are on teams outside of the academy system to play their games. Their academy skill programs and drills are individual skill not a practice plan based on the teams win lose record.

Yeah I understand this, and I've followed some of the changes that have taken place in Sweden, and in other nations. But still, hockey in Canada is also very much about skill development, and Canadian players are still very skilled.

As somebody that has followed hockey for over 50years I've been hearing the skills thing forever. I think the disparity in skill training is overstated and perhaps a disrespect to all the Canadian leagues, teams, volunteers, coaches, communities that put soooooo much into this game.

As well basic stats don't bare out any appreciable skills disparity. For instance;

NHL Totals by Nationality ‑ 2018‑2019 Stats

Doing calculations the average Canadian hockey player in the league had 20.36pts. The average Finn had 20.73pts. The average US player has 18.86pts, the Average Czech only 18.1, the average Swede 22pts. Only Russian players, at an average 27.6pts are clearly ahead of the skills gradient. The only ones that should be getting inordinately picked based on actual production numbers.

Now I realize the above does not explain all contribution, simply pts contribution, but at least its a look at whether there is clearly discernible skill differentiation. The pts show that unless its a Russian player there is no appreciable differentiation. There is however a thought on whatever happened to Czech hockey as only 7 players drafted and post Jagr Czech players are doing poorly in the NHL.

The average Finn had virtual Canadian figures at 20.73pts. Yet far more Finns per capita are drafted. Only 73k Finnish hockey players registered yet astoundingly represent 22 NHL draft selections. Canada often has 10 times as many registered players and had only 3 times more picks selected. Heres another way to look at it. As many hockey players are registered in Quebec and Manitoba combined, than in Sweden and Finland combined. Yet 4.5- 5 times as many Swedes or Finns were selected in the draft. Something weird is going on. Indeed selective bias. By several fold magnitude.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Karlsson was playing on one leg though. You can’t really chalk that up to euro choking or something. Anyways expect an astounding number of euros on Edmonton in the coming years under Holland.

The key point is whether Euro players are so appreciably better that they warrant such disproportionate, per quota selection.

Canada and the US rule the world in hockey participants, in arenas, in indoor or outdoor hockey rinks, in programs, etc. But the NHL is increasingly looking for Euro stock.

Heres something that is astounding. As recently as 1996 58% of players drafted were Canadian. 29% were Euro. So TWICE as many Canadians.

So 23 years later Euro represents 42% of players picked and Canada fallen to only 32%


Wheres the proof that Canadian hockey has gotten appreciably worse, in comparison, to this degree, in that short period of time? NHL scouts seem to think so but I think some bias is going on.

Lets look at one possible bias. You happen to be an NHL scout. Simple question. Would you rather spend a lot of your time and effort in far off glamorous lands, in Italy, Germany, Sweden, Switzerland etc or in Weyburn, Moose Jaw, or Brandon.

Is it possible, in this millennia, that NHL scouts, just like travellers, just prefer Europe? (pure supposition)

Or are scouts and teams just swayed by the novelty of Euro play, on ice, because they play the game differently, and with more supposed skill, and that it leaves more tongues wagging. Or is it the rink dimensions itself that make player look more skilled, with far more time and space to exhbit said skill? Its quite possible rink dimensions alone account for a lot of differences in perception of players. Jesse Puljujarvi looked skilled in Europe, think about that vs how he looks here.

But when Oilers scouts could take a transit bus ride to scout Colton Parayko, I wonder where they were scouting and what they found. Not much, apparently. Astoundingly we picked Mitch Moroz and Jujhar Khaira. Too bad Colton wasn't an Oil King..he hails from far off St. Albert. Just off the Edmonton ring road...

 

[Perfect_Drug]

I simply believe the Swedish approach to development is much more optimized for higher professional output.

Canada's program at lower levels is more about participation, and quickly becomes bogged in politics.

I know far too many guys who missed placement in higher leagues due to nepotism of coaches (allowing their sons or friends more PP time, better line mates, favorable zone starts) as early as the age of 8.


I wonder what would happen if Korea or China invested as heavily into their hockey programs.

I mean, being Korean I'd imagine their approach to training might be more 'militant' and on-par with the old 'Red Army' style training.

It's how koreans approach school, or other athletics.

We don't practice for fun, or enjoyment. We practice to win. And this is hammered into our heads when we're infants.

 

[Bangers]

To me, the answer is pretty simple. Most European academies (and now the US National Development program) are more focused on player development, while Canadian major junior teams are more focused on winning games. Some nations/regions just have better positional coaching (like Quebec and Finland) as well.

It's why your ideal hockey team is the team where your C is from the OHL, your wingers are Swedish and Russian, your offensive D man is Swedish, your defensive D man is from the WHL, and your goalie is a Finn (not completely serious, of course).

Also, while it's not a primary reason, the rule that keeps major junior players in the CHL until they're 19 doesn't help. Some prospects that have outgrown junior and are forced to play down a level, while Euro players can continue their development with senior teams.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I simply believe the Swedish approach to development is much more optimized for higher professional output.

Canada's program at lower levels is more about participation, and quickly becomes bogged in politics.

I know far too many guys who missed placement in higher leagues due to nepotism of coaches (allowing their sons or friends more PP time, better line mates, favorable zone starts) as early as the age of 8.


I wonder what would happen if Korea or China invested as heavily into their hockey programs.

I mean, being Korean I'd imagine their approach to training might be more 'militant' and on-par with the old 'Red Army' style training.

It's how koreans approach school, or other athletics.

We don't practice for fun, or enjoyment. We practice to win. And this is hammered into our heads when we're infants.

But it could be stated that learning to win, the tenacity required, the battle, the ability to scrum, out compete become developed skills within the Canadian system and are displayed at all levels of hockey, and international hockey.

Teaching kids competition, and honing that is potentially valuabe as well and never moreso than for "higher professional output"

The reality is until Niklas Lidstrom came along the general argument was Euro players had some mad skillz but that Canadian players were just as skilled and knew how to win.

Interestingly Tampa, and I'll get a dig in here, is perennially the most Euro styled club in the league and they always are found lacking, when push comes to shove, quite literally.

In Edmonton, its been decades since we've seen much success from Euro players, we've drafted several of them, with the Exception of Draisaitl, who is Canadian styled in game and approach as it gets, we don't get a lot out of them.

 

[Drivesaitl]

To me, the answer is pretty simple. Most European academies (and now the US National Development program) are more focused on player development, while Canadian major junior teams are more focused on winning games. Some nations/regions just have better positional coaching (like Quebec and Finland) as well.

It's why your ideal hockey team is the team where your C is from the OHL, your wingers are Swedish and Russian, your offensive D man is Swedish, your defensive D man is from the WHL, and your goalie is a Finn (not completely serious, of course).

Also, while it's not a primary reason, the rule that keeps major junior players in the CHL until they're 19 doesn't help. Some prospects that have outgrown junior and are forced to play down a level, while Euro players can continue their development with senior teams.

The bolded really shouldn't impact drafting all that much. I can see where it could effect development AFTER drafting which isn't the topic of this thread.

if Quebec has better positional coaching and play, where is the drafting of that? There are way more players in Quebec than Finland. Yet TWICE as many Finnish kids got drafted to play in NA, and on completely different ice surfaces, different culture, different continent, when we know from recent experience Euro kids can often have trouble over here adapting to everything.

Indeed its even recognized that its a disadvantage for Euro kids, and that they SHOULD play here post draft to learn how to play in NA rinks with completely different dimensions in a very different game.

Its asinine, for the reasons mentioned above, that in a league with 45% Canadian content, and that has usually been over 50% that Canadian and domestic picks are being looked over in favor of Euro picks.

Essentially whats going on is despite the culture disadvantage, despite language disadvantage, despite the rink dimension disadvantage, despite the lesser familiarity with NA play that scouts are opting for Euro players MUCH MORE than Canadian players. That this is occurring, and why its occurring, should be news all day in Canada.

 

[Captain Controversy]

Am I the only one that came to this post to see talk about beer and be disappointed?
Even though the title mentioned no Canadian draft beer ?

 

[Aerrol]

It's a failure of Canadian development (bad) mixed with hockey gaining in participation and popularity around the world (good). You hear lots of stories/discussion about individual skills development in Finland, Sweden, and now the USNDTP. Meanwhile Canada is content with rising participation costs, no centralized development program, and nepotism across all junior levels.

I don't think it's a drafting bias problem. It's a development problem. Your examples are such small sample size that they're irrelevant. If Karlsson was such a great poster-boy for how awful European players are, how come Ovechkin is arguably the greatest goal scorer of all time? All while playing a good-ole-Canadian style of crash and bang hockey? Oh, and you neglect to mention the part where pre-injury Karlsson carried a sack sad Senators team to the playoffs almost annually, culminating with him almost singlehandedly taking them to the Stanley Cup finals. A much, MUCH better Penguins roster barely beat them that year and then went on to take the cup.

If you want to compare talent levels, I think the easiest example is to look at the World Jrs. Canada is less dominant than ever at that level.

 

[Aerrol]

A further thought - looking at the current Stanley cup champs as an indication that there's Canadian talent being passed over in the draft is flawed. What's the average age of the winning Blues team? 26? Most of those guys were drafted 5+ years ago, making discussions of current youth talent levels and development programs inapplicable to them. A much better analysis would look at NHL players 23 and under.

 

[MessierII]

Interestingly Tampa, and I'll get a dig in here, is perennially the most Euro styled club in the league and they always are found lacking, when push comes to shove, quite literally.

Detroit was the greatest organization in the league made the playoffs 25 straight sessions between 1991-2015 winning 4 cups in that span mostly on the backs of europeon players.

 

[Drivesaitl]

It's a failure of Canadian development (bad) mixed with hockey gaining in participation and popularity around the world (good). You hear lots of stories/discussion about individual skills development in Finland, Sweden, and now the USNDTP. Meanwhile Canada is content with rising participation costs, no centralized development program, and nepotism across all junior levels.

I don't think it's a drafting bias problem. It's a development problem. Your examples are such small sample size that they're irrelevant. If Karlsson was such a great poster-boy for how awful European players are, how come Ovechkin is arguably the greatest goal scorer of all time? All while playing a good-ole-Canadian style of crash and bang hockey? Oh, and you neglect to mention the part where pre-injury Karlsson carried a sack sad Senators team to the playoffs almost annually, culminating with him almost singlehandedly taking them to the Stanley Cup finals. A much, MUCH better Penguins roster barely beat them that year and then went on to take the cup.

If you want to compare talent levels, I think the easiest example is to look at the World Jrs. Canada is less dominant than ever at that level.

I'm actually, in the thread OP, using the biggest samples possible in exploring. I'm posting overall hockey registration numbers per country and comparing that to drafted player numbers per country.

Fact of the matter is if you are any particularly player in Finland or Sweden, your chances of playing in the NHL right now are much greater than if you are Canadian, playing the actual game and brand that is played in the NHL.

Further, I've cited how striking the transition AWAY from Canadian picks and that it is a recent phenomenon. As recently as 2015 more Canadians were drafted than total Euros. Now many more Euros are drafted. Disproportionately way more.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Detroit was the greatest organization in the league made the playoffs 25 straight sessions between 1991-2015 winning 4 cups in that span mostly on the backs of europeon players.

Detroit was the exception, along with Colorado, rather than the rule.

Greatest org in the league? I don't subscribe to that. They had perennially some of the deepest pockets and were consistently one of the top spending clubs. The dozen or so years precap were largely the story of have vs have not franchises. Whoever those teams didn't pick they could just buy later.

 

[Aerrol]

I'm actually, in the thread OP, using the biggest samples possible in exploring. I'm posting overall hockey registration numbers per country and comparing that to drafted player numbers per country.

Fact of the matter is if you are any particularly player in Finland or Sweden, your chances of playing in the NHL right now are much greater than if you are Canadian, playing the actual game and brand that is played in the NHL.

Further, I've cited how striking the transition AWAY from Canadian picks and that it is a recent phenomenon. As recently as 2015 more Canadians were drafted than total Euros. Now many more Euros are drafted. Disproportionately way more.

None of this has anything to do with the why of drafting though. Less than what, 1-5% of all junior players are in the running for the draft. Thus, the ability of a country to develop elite talent is the penultimate trait for how likely they are to produce NHL players. Again, look at the world juniors. Canada's fall off there is a great indicator that we have fallen far behind in terms of developing our youth hockey players.

Essentially in Canada you have to seek out assistance on your own (McDavid was seeking professional assistance for development from what, age 13?). Meanwhile in the US, Sweden and Finland all the top youth players are automatically getting individual skills assistance. The the coaches in Finland have explicit instructions across the country to prioritize the development of their players. IIRC their team funding from the national program is based on their ability to do so. Here's a great article on Finland's reform of hockey development - I believe I read a longer form article on the same topic on the Athletic last year.

How Finland has emerged as a hockey superpower

 

[Drivesaitl]

I've also cited success of teams in playoffs. This year STL was the MOST Canadian team in the playoffs and nobody could beat them. They won, on the backs of excellent performances by Canadian players. The only noteworthy non Canadian on the club being Tarasenko.

Last season it was the Vegas Knights, the most Canadian team of that season, going all the way to the final and doing very well.

In 2014 and 2012 it was the LA Kings having the most Canadian roster in the league and winning cups.

Really continued unparalleled success by Canadian players being key cogs in cup wins but so much RECENT switch AWAY from Canadian picks. Its a bit odd.

 

[BlackDogg]

A lot of people are even parroting their username after Euro players now

 

[Aerrol]

I've also cited success of teams in playoffs. This year STL was the MOST Canadian team in the playoffs and nobody could beat them. They won, on the backs of excellent performances by Canadian players. The only noteworthy non Canadian on the club being Tarasenko.

Last season it was the Vegas Knights, the most Canadian team of that season, going all the way to the final and doing very well.

In 2014 and 2012 it was the LA Kings having the most Canadian roster in the league and winning cups.

Really continued unparalleled success by Canadian players being key cogs in cup wins but so much RECENT switch AWAY from Canadian picks. Its a bit odd.

You're focusing on recency bias. Again, these winning players were developed 5-10 years ago. It's not relevant to today's draft if you actually are scouting the players.

 

[Drivesaitl]

None of this has anything to do with the why of drafting though. Less than what, 1-5% of all junior players are in the running for the draft. Thus, the ability of a country to develop elite talent is the penultimate trait for how likely they are to produce NHL players. Again, look at the world juniors. Canada's fall off there is a great indicator that we have fallen far behind in terms of developing our youth hockey players.

Essentially in Canada you have to seek out assistance on your own (McDavid was seeking professional assistance for development from what, age 13?). Meanwhile in the US, Sweden and Finland all the top youth players are automatically getting individual skills assistance. The the coaches in Finland have explicit instructions across the country to prioritize the development of their players. IIRC their team funding from the national program is based on their ability to do so. Here's a great article on Finland's reform of hockey development - I believe I read a longer form article on the same topic on the Athletic last year.

How Finland has emerged as a hockey superpower

Canada has way more Junior clubs than any other nation. More high level Junior play than any other nation. Way more very good Junior players than any other nation. In last 5 juniors Canada has won gold twice, have better podium results than any nation, have owned the World Juniors at times and in unprecedented fashion, and have of course won it much more than any other nation. But Finland wins a couple and they are a hockey superpower?

IIHF World U20 Championship - Wikipedia

Where are all these results that suggest Canada is getting trounced in hockey. Canada could put 10 teams in World Juniors play. 3 would be elite. No other country could do that.

 

[Drivesaitl]

A lot of people are even parroting their username after Euro players now

Heh, as stated, in style Draisaitl is about as Canadian as they get. Germany plays a Canadian brand of hockey, he player Juniors here, and he was exceedingly well prepared to play this game.

More often we get players like Pulju and Yakupov coming in here and not having a clue.

Whens the last time Edmonton had a Finnish draft pick that was any good? I can't even remember.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Id rather my team draft players with hockey skill rather than players that just try real hard.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Heh, as stated, in style Draisaitl is about as Canadian as they get. Germany plays a Canadian brand of hockey, he player Juniors here, and he was exceedingly well prepared to play this game.

More often we get players like Pulju and Yakupov coming in here and not having a clue.

Whens the last time Edmonton had a Finnish draft pick that was any good? I can't even remember.

Did you miss the part where Yakupov played juniors here aswell?