Speculation: Can we win the cup this year? Next year?

[Lshap]

can we? Sure.. any one could win with the right circumstances and miracles all falling into place...

will we? well that depends on a lot of things ... and i mean a lot.. and unfortunately i miss placed my crystal ball so i'm just gonna guess and say that we will probably have a alright chance but fall short .. but we will learn from our mistakes and be seen as a contender in the next year or 2. but, that's with out some sort of meteoric rise or epic fail happening..

ahhh... screw it... the fan boy in me just wants to say YES .. SO, YES WE WILL!




..but, logic still says no.

No fan base should expect to win. Not LA, not Chicago, not St-Louis, not San Jose -- nobody gets the benefit of smug confidence. The Hawks were unbeatable in 2013, yet they went down in the WCF. Bruins had the best record in the league -- some eastern team took them down in 2014. LA looks otherworldly right now, but watch a new set of factors eliminate them next year.

And on the flip side, there's no reason for Habs fans to expect to lose. We've reached the tier where we're among the top-10 teams in the league, and easily among the top three or four in the EC. Sure, anything could go wrong, as it did with St-Louis, Boston, San Jose, Anaheim, but we're a good enough team so that anything could as easily go right. Nobody expected the Rangers - a good, not great team - to get to the SCF, and nobody expected the Habs to reach the ECF and get as close as a healthy Carey Price to possibly going further.

Does that mean 'anything can happen' in the playoffs? Yeah, but only if you're already a really good team, with solid goaltending and, most of all, a healthy roster. Mediocre teams can't luck their way to the SCF. But good teams plus luck? Yeah, that can happen. We don't have to become better than LA if some other team beats them, or if they're hit with injuries.

We're not set, but we're close. We have cap space to add a key player at trade deadline (or sooner). We have a GM who's building a rep for eyebrow-raising deals. We have surprisingly good pro scouting. All the pieces are in place to take that final step into the arena of Cup contenders.

 

[Beige Van]

No fan base should expect to win. Not LA, not Chicago, not St-Louis, not San Jose -- nobody gets the benefit of smug confidence. The Hawks were unbeatable in 2013, yet they went down in the WCF. Bruins had the best record in the league -- some eastern team took them down in 2014. LA looks otherworldly right now, but watch a new set of factors eliminate them next year.

And on the flip side, there's no reason for Habs fans to expect to lose. We've reached the tier where we're among the top-10 teams in the league, and easily among the top three or four in the EC. Sure, anything could go wrong, as it did with St-Louis, Boston, San Jose, Anaheim, but we're a good enough team so that anything could as easily go right. Nobody expected the Rangers - a good, not great team - to get to the SCF, and nobody expected the Habs to reach the ECF and get as close as a healthy Carey Price to possibly going further.

Does that mean 'anything can happen' in the playoffs? Yeah, but only if you're already a really good team, with solid goaltending and, most of all, a healthy roster. Mediocre teams can't luck their way to the SCF. But good teams plus luck? Yeah, that can happen. We don't have to become better than LA if some other team beats them, or if they're hit with injuries.

We're not set, but we're close. We have cap space to add a key player at trade deadline (or sooner). We have a GM who's building a rep for eyebrow-raising deals. We have surprisingly good pro scouting. All the pieces are in place to take that final step into the arena of Cup contenders.

Chicago won the Cup in 2013.

 

[tinyzombies]

In 15-16, Anaheim will be loaded - tons of cap space and a solid roster (but with young goaltending, and they will have to spend all their cap money to bring in quality players - will they be able to just by selling $13 tickets?). Minny might be good if they manage their cap right (and goaltending is an issue).

This might be the last year LA, Boston, St. Louis and Chicago are at the elite level they are at right now if you look at the cap. I think we will catch up. LA and Chicago have some kids that might be able to replace their depth, but hard to imagine them getting back to this level. They will all still be contenders, but not at this level. Detroit is just getting older and I think we can play with Pittsburgh. I think Tampa will be tough, but overrated cuz of scoring depth issues. San Jose will be old and done in two years.

So, next fall we should be legit, first-tier contenders if we can fill some holes.

We have to pick up a UFA maybe (tho I don't see much next year) and upgrade at both trade deadlines. Etc.

 

[Saintpatrick*]

Well, we do have a shot at getting out of the East. We're not at the same level as Chicago and LA, though.



I hate this idiom. First, it's just not true. 4 x 7 games series is not a coin flip. The best teams will win most of the time and the teams ranked 10-16th have practically no chance. The Kings of recent years are an exception, but we all know they are better than their regular season results.

With that being said, I'd change the idiom by saying this: once you get to the Stanley Cup final, anything is possible.

Upsetting 3 or 4 teams successively is almost impossible. But just one upset? Totally possible. For example, I'd like our chances against a team like Chicago, even though they are better than us.

You make it to the dance and anything is possible. Your goalie gets hot or the team comes together at the right time it can carry you a long way. Personally I don't see it until either Chucky emerges as our number 1 center or we get a real top line center via trade.

 

[DAChampion]

We're contenders.

 

[JayKing]

anything is possible. LAst year, I never would've thought we'd go as far as we did.

One thing that's for sure, if the Habs want to win, they have to be more competitive against San Jose, LA & St Louis. Those 3 teams ragdolled the Habs last year during the regular season. They need to show that they belong in that class.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

An awful lot would have to go right.

At a minimum:

- Price would have to be healthy and at least as good as he was last year. That's no small task. With this group as/is, Price would have to play out of his mind for us to win.

- Therrien would have to go back to the system he had two years ago and stop being an idiot in terms of ice distribution.

- Alex Galchenyuk would have to "arrive" for us to seriously mount the kind of offense required to win a cup.

- We'd rely greatly on a younger D to mature very quickly. I think it's a good group and we'll do well with them, but its still a big ask for a cup win with Tinordi and Beaulieu playing key roles.

 

[Miller Time]

Price is the kind of goalie that, if he goes on a tear, could carry a much lesser roster than the one we have to a cup.

So yeah, we "could" win this year.

Overall though, we're likely still in the mix of teams just outside the legit contenders.

On paper we're not in the same caliber as the LA, CHI, Boston, Pitt, St.Louis group. But it's a long season, and come April as long as we get in, we have enough talent in net and on D to make some noise imo.

 

[Rozz]

No fan base should expect to win. Not LA, not Chicago, not St-Louis, not San Jose -- nobody gets the benefit of smug confidence. The Hawks were unbeatable in 2013, yet they went down in the WCF. Bruins had the best record in the league -- some eastern team took them down in 2014. LA looks otherworldly right now, but watch a new set of factors eliminate them next year.

And on the flip side, there's no reason for Habs fans to expect to lose. We've reached the tier where we're among the top-10 teams in the league, and easily among the top three or four in the EC. Sure, anything could go wrong, as it did with St-Louis, Boston, San Jose, Anaheim, but we're a good enough team so that anything could as easily go right. Nobody expected the Rangers - a good, not great team - to get to the SCF, and nobody expected the Habs to reach the ECF and get as close as a healthy Carey Price to possibly going further.

Does that mean 'anything can happen' in the playoffs? Yeah, but only if you're already a really good team, with solid goaltending and, most of all, a healthy roster. Mediocre teams can't luck their way to the SCF. But good teams plus luck? Yeah, that can happen. We don't have to become better than LA if some other team beats them, or if they're hit with injuries.

We're not set, but we're close. We have cap space to add a key player at trade deadline (or sooner). We have a GM who's building a rep for eyebrow-raising deals. We have surprisingly good pro scouting. All the pieces are in place to take that final step into the arena of Cup contenders.

I completely agree with the last paragraph .. I have been quite impressed with our GMs trades and pro scouting and i do feel we are close to taking that next step.. it's up to the kids now.. and i have high hopes for our young guns that are ready to make the jump to nhl and the ones ready to take the next step in the nhl ... not expectations mind you .. but high hopes

 

[RealityBytes]

In 2012, the Senators were the hot team in the playoffs and were supposed to move ahead the next year but didn't. They made changes that were supposed to improve the team but didn't.

In 2013, after the Leafs went to game seven with the Bruins, they were supposed to be the team to move ahead the next year but didn't. They added players to their team that looked good on paper but they didn't get better.

In 2014, the Habs passed the Bruins and went to the East conf. finals, and fans are saying the Habs will move ahead in 2015. The Habs have made changes on paper that look good ...

The answer will be is how the team gels and plays together considering all the changes. For certain, not all expected changes that are supposed to improve the team will pan out as high as fan's expectations and there has been some loss of talent on the negative side as well.

I think MB says it right: "we start all over again" ... and we are going to need to see 20 or 30 games before we have any real idea.

 

[Lshap]

Chicago won the Cup in 2013.

I meant "Unbeatable in 2013", as in they won the Cup, but lost in 2014 in the WCF. Should've been clearer.

 

[Stripper]

I meant "Unbeatable in 2013", as in they won the Cup, but lost in 2014 in the WCF. Should've been clearer.

Let's be honest.. Chicago and LA were the teams to beat in 2014.. The winner WAS winning the cup.

 

[Lshap]

anything is possible. LAst year, I never would've thought we'd go as far as we did.

One thing that's for sure, if the Habs want to win, they have to be more competitive against San Jose, LA & St Louis. Those 3 teams ragdolled the Habs last year during the regular season. They need to show that they belong in that class.

You probably know the answer, but guess which team we did worst against?

San Jose -- 0 goals. 0-2 in games, 0-6 in goals, outshot 49-70. Only two games, but not one friggin goal.

LA not much better -- 0-2 in games, 1-8 in goals, outshot by a respectable 49-52.


So yeah, based on admittedly small sample sizes we don't stand a chance against the playoff-beast Kings, who get even better post-season. San Jose was also a major issue, as were the Blues to a lesser extent. On the other hand, we played Chicago and Anaheim well. Not surprisingly, it comes down to matchups.

 

[Brainiac]

You make it to the dance and anything is possible.

Define "dance". Is it one game? One series? One season?

What I meant to say with my previous comment is as follows:

-1 game of hockey is basically a crapshoot. Upsets happen all the time. So yes, if you made it there (say, game 7 of the SC finals), anything can happen.

-A best of 7 series is a little less of a crapshoot, but upsets will happen from time to time, of course.

-The SC playoffs, with 4 x best of 7 series is not a crapshoot anymore. Good teams will win, average teams will lose at some point. Making it to the dance matters, but not as much as we might think.


The point is simple, when the playoffs start, it's not an equal 1/16 chance of winning it all for everyone.

But because one game of hockey has this intrinsic uncertainty, people tend to extrapolate that to a whole series or worse, a whole post-season. Which is a fallacy.

 

[Rapala]

Let's be honest.. Chicago and LA were the teams to beat in 2014.. The winner WAS winning the cup.

We need to ignore the west completely.
There are enough roadblocks to consider in just winning the ECF.
The greatest being the Pejorative Slured playoff formula..?

 

[Lshap]

Let's be honest.. Chicago and LA were the teams to beat in 2014.. The winner WAS winning the cup.

No argument there! But as we've seen, last year's 'team to beat' usually gets beat the following year. Too many variables in hockey -- injuries, luck, hot goalie -- that make a repeat extremely unlikely. And even if both teams make the WCF again, we'd only play one in the SCF. As I just posted, I don't see any way to beat LA unless they had serious injuries. As for Chicago... yeah I know, playoff cred and all that... but we'd at least stand a chance. Plus, Price is better than Crawford.

 

[Lshap]

An awful lot would have to go right.

At a minimum:

- Price would have to be healthy and at least as good as he was last year. That's no small task. With this group as/is, Price would have to play out of his mind for us to win.

- Therrien would have to go back to the system he had two years ago and stop being an idiot in terms of ice distribution.

- Alex Galchenyuk would have to "arrive" for us to seriously mount the kind of offense required to win a cup.

- We'd rely greatly on a younger D to mature very quickly. I think it's a good group and we'll do well with them, but its still a big ask for a cup win with Tinordi and Beaulieu playing key roles.

I've been pimping our revamped D as the single most important change from last season to this one. The focus is all about puck-movement and speed, which backs up your point about Therrien returning to the mega-goal scoring 2013 season. That seems to be the plan. Even without a Vanek, we'll probably score more thanks to guys like Gilbert and Beaulieu jetting into the neutral zone with the puck. Sure, expect some major screwups and giveaways, but overall this is looking like a forechecking/transitioning game-plan tailor made for a guy like Beaulieu. I'm not expecting him to become an instant Subban, but he looks hungry to succeed. The fact that he was trusted in the playoffs should be a huge confidence booster, and should - I hope - translate into a fast learning curve and be a big improvement over who we had back there.

I'm really excited to watch our forwards' eyes light up as they start getting passes from dmen moving up the ice, instead of trying to flag down desperate long bombs or having to start a breakout from way back in our zone.

As to Price, I'm less worried about him maintaining quality and slightly more worried about avoiding injury.

 

[Stripper]

We need to ignore the west completely.
There are enough roadblocks to consider in just winning the ECF.
The greatest being the Pejorative Slured playoff formula..?

We can ignore the West, but only until we reach the finals. Once the team is there, we need to start praying in various religions that Price will stop absolutely everything shot his way! I do believe Montreal could have gotten to the finals with Price, but I don't think we could have won the Cup regardless...

The West is a threat and I think that until our team is built in a way where it can actually challenge the western teams, we have no chance at the cup. I also do not believe that games won during the season mean anything, everything important only happen in the playoffs.

No argument there! But as we've seen, last year's 'team to beat' usually gets beat the following year. Too many variables in hockey -- injuries, luck, hot goalie -- that make a repeat extremely unlikely. And even if both teams make the WCF again, we'd only play one in the SCF. As I just posted, I don't see any way to beat LA unless they had serious injuries. As for Chicago... yeah I know, playoff cred and all that... but we'd at least stand a chance. Plus, Price is better than Crawford.

That's one way to see it. Like I said, if Chicago had won versus LA, they were winning that cup. The single fact that they reached the WCF shows that they are real contenders.

Price is better than Crawford, but Chicagos overall team is better than Montreals!

 

[Rapala]

That's one way to see it. Like I said, if Chicago had won versus LA, they were winning that cup. The single fact that they reached the WCF shows that they are real contenders.

Price is better than Crawford, but Chicagos overall team is better than Montreals!

The point I was hoping to make clear is that we can't control the west.
Everyone had the same sentiment.
But guess what stranger things have happened.
Getting out of the East will at least make it possible.

 

[Stripper]

The point I was hoping to make clear is that we can't control the west.
Everyone had the same sentiment.
But guess what stranger things have happened.
Getting out of the East will at least make it possible.

I did understand what you said. My first sentence in my last post explains my opinion. We can win the ECF and reach the SCF, but winning that best of 7 will be extremely hard to do!

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I've been pimping our revamped D as the single most important change from last season to this one. The focus is all about puck-movement and speed, which backs up your point about Therrien returning to the mega-goal scoring 2013 season. That seems to be the plan. Even without a Vanek, we'll probably score more thanks to guys like Gilbert and Beaulieu jetting into the neutral zone with the puck. Sure, expect some major screwups and giveaways, but overall this is looking like a forechecking/transitioning game-plan tailor made for a guy like Beaulieu. I'm not expecting him to become an instant Subban, but he looks hungry to succeed. The fact that he was trusted in the playoffs should be a huge confidence booster, and should - I hope - translate into a fast learning curve and be a big improvement over who we had back there.

I'm really excited to watch our forwards' eyes light up as they start getting passes from dmen moving up the ice, instead of trying to flag down desperate long bombs or having to start a breakout from way back in our zone.

As to Price, I'm less worried about him maintaining quality and slightly more worried about avoiding injury.

Our D should be night and day better. And I think we'll spend a lot more time in the opposing zone in large part because of this. All MT needs to do is stay out of the way. No more stupidity on ice distribution, no more nonsense on calling players out or benching Subban. If he keeps his head out of his ass we'll be in good shape.

As for Price, he has the talent to take an undeserving team to a cup. I still think we would've been in the final if he was healthy last year. Beating the Kings would've been next to impossible with our lineup but he's the kind of goalie who can do great things. If this team is going to go on some kind of Cinderella run, he'd have to be our best player.

 

[Rapala]

Our D should be night and day better. And I think we'll spend a lot more time in the opposing zone in large part because of this. All MT needs to do is stay out of the way. No more stupidity on ice distribution, no more nonsense on calling players out or benching Subban. If he keeps his head out of his ass we'll be in good shape.

As for Price, he has the talent to take an undeserving team to a cup. I still think we would've been in the final if he was healthy last year. Beating the Kings would've been next to impossible with our lineup but he's the kind of goalie who can do great things. If this team is going to go on some kind of Cinderella run, he'd have to be our best player.

Not gonna happen MT has to stick his head up his ass...
Where do you think he pulled half of those points out of last year.
I distinctly remember using that exact phrase on our MT disappreciation thread.

 

[Lshap]

All MT needs to do is stay out of the way. No more stupidity on ice distribution, no more nonsense on calling players out or benching Subban. If he keeps his head out of his ass we'll be in good shape.

Not gonna happen MT has to stick his head up his ass...
Where do you think he pulled half of those points out of last year.
I distinctly remember using that exact phrase on our MT disappreciation thread.

Y'know, there's a legit argument that the biggest reason the Habs exploded with goals in 2013 was Therrien. We went from a lottery team coached in the defensive Jacques Martin style in 2012, to a fast-transition, offensive game plan in 2013. Yeah, Gallagher and Galchenyuk were important additions, but the single biggest change from 2012 to 2013 was Therrien's coaching. He took off the Martin leash, we scored a ton, we won the division, we shocked everyone.

So why did Therrien put the leash back on last season? Because other teams adapted. Suddenly our D was being rushed and pressured, and were either too soft to respond (Diaz, Bouillon, Markov), not skilled enough to move the puck (Gorges) or too damn slow (Murray). Suddenly those quick transitions from 2013 were being bottled up by opposing forward slamming into our D in our zone, and we fell back into weak short passes or desperate stretch passes. If you can't get the puck out of your zone, your offense is cut off at the trunk.

That's what I think this season's shift in our defence core is all about -- getting back to transition and puck-movement that worked so well in 2013. I'm not a Therrien fan, but I'm liking this season's theme of generating offense, starting with a bigger, faster, tougher, younger group of D. If the focus is on Beaulieu and Tinordi given all the time to develop, Therrien will have redeemed himself for a lot of his questionable roster moves last year.

 

[Rapala]

Y'know, there's a legit argument that the biggest reason the Habs exploded with goals in 2013 was Therrien. We went from a lottery team coached in the defensive Jacques Martin style in 2012, to a fast-transition, offensive game plan in 2013. Yeah, Gallagher and Galchenyuk were important additions, but the single biggest change from 2012 to 2013 was Therrien's coaching. He took off the Martin leash, we scored a ton, we won the division, we shocked everyone.

So why did Therrien put the leash back on last season? Because other teams adapted. Suddenly our D was being rushed and pressured, and were either too soft to respond (Diaz, Bouillon, Markov), not skilled enough to move the puck (Gorges) or too damn slow (Murray). Suddenly those quick transitions from 2013 were being bottled up by opposing forward slamming into our D in our zone, and we fell back into weak short passes or desperate stretch passes. If you can't get the puck out of your zone, your offense is cut off at the trunk.

That's what I think this season's shift in our defence core is all about -- getting back to transition and puck-movement that worked so well in 2013. I'm not a Therrien fan, but I'm liking this season's theme of generating offense, starting with a bigger, faster, tougher, younger group of D. If the focus is on Beaulieu and Tinordi given all the time to develop, Therrien will have redeemed himself for a lot of his questionable roster moves last year.

I hope you are right much of the frustration last year had to do with the taste MT left in our mouths after some of his handling of personnel. To the point where we felt he was padding his stats at the detriment of youth and our future. The fact that in the PO's he opted for a complete 180 in terms of game style and was fairly successful with it only infuriated many of us more. We felt we could have played that way all season long and perhaps perfected it. Even though we took out the bolts in 4 we gifted far too many goals as we adapted to the new game plan. Hence the points out of his ass quip...

 

[Phil Parent]

I think saying we have better chances than most is correct.

But at this point, if we'd win, it would be an upset because there's a group of 3-4-5 teams that are definitively favourites.

But we are definitively Top 10.